Player Progression / Team Regression

by dobbs on Jan 16, 2007 3:02 PM EST in Boston Celtics Articles

In a prior Cheap Seats piece "Celtics Still Defensively Challenged", I noted that the team was placing an awful lot of pressure on Sebastian Telfair to be the guy to put the C's into the echelon of winning basketball teams. Since the Celtics did not address any defensive shortcomings in the offseason, I reasoned that it would fall on the NYC prodigy to be the engine in an up-tempo scoring machine. Telfair would have to turn an already efficient offense into one that added ten to fifteen extra fastbreak points; Celtic games needed to be shooting gallery for the team to have any success. Obviously, Sebastian has failed in this regard. I don't know that he was ever really suited for this role, but I do know that fans have been continually promised one style of play prior to the season and been delivered another when the actual games start.

The search for a true pass-first point guard will continue, right after these important messages from our sponsors...

The overall sentiment on the blog is that this team is finished and should do everything in its power to secure a top pick in the talent rich 2007 NBA draft. Fans don't care so much about the wins and losses, as long as the Celtics continue to develop young players like Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, and Rajon Rondo. Player progression with team regression. If we can't be optimistic about the future of certain players, then the mere process of watching Boston get their collective heads caved in becomes a total soul-crushing excercise. We fans cling to little shreds of hope:

* Hey! Gerald had a good game! You see that dunk he threw down in the 3rd?
* Rondo got more than ten minutes tonight!
* Call me crazy, but I think that Scalabrine's breasts have actually shrank a full cup-size!

I think that fans have gotten too complacent in this regard. It's great that Al Jefferson is having a breakout season and that Gerald Green is turning into a factor on offense. Tony Allen, prior to his potentially career-limiting knee injury, was really taking off, too. Yet even with the individual growth of these players, the _team_ is still the same rudderless ship. Eventually, Paul, Wally, Delonte, and Perk will all be healthy. When they are, the production of certain players that are currently getting minutes due to other injuries has to drop. For example, Green is not going to score twenty a night with Pierce and Szczerbiak taking the bulk of the perimeter shots. Rondo's minutes will probably drop from sporadic to near nil, as Doc is clearly more comfortable with West as his starting point. Jefferson will probably get fewer touches too, although he is the one player that can truly make a difference in how the Celtic team plays offensive basketball. Right now, the net result just a substitution of similar cogs, amounting to a team that plays in the exact same way with different names on the jerseys.

The Celtics need to do two things to become successful:

1) Replace players with redundant skill sets with ones that fill a need.
2) Establish an identity of any kind on the basketball court.

The first responsibility falls on Danny and Doc. It's on the GM to recognize what the team's needs are, and it's on the coach to make sure that players are being utilized in the proper role. Unfortunately, both have failed in some capacity (Danny with the Telfair trade, Doc's offenses too numerous to detail). I'll save the who's redundant/who's not breakdown for another article. The second is on the coach to design and the players to implement. Tony Barone's job in Memphis is a perfect example. Within ONE GAME of taking over for Fratello, Barone turned the plodding pace of the Grizzlies into a clone of the Doug Moe era Denver Nuggets. The Grizz are now averaging 111.5 PPG with a roster most scouts would agree is inferior to Boston's from top to bottom. Memphis isn't winning many more games yet, but they have a much better chance to win playing Barone's style than Fratello's style, that much is certain. Therein lies the power of establishing a team identity that players believe in; Memphis is now known as a high-scoring fastbreak team, and it didn't take them much time.

Why can't the Celtics do the same thing? Al Jefferson can't run as well as Pau Gasol? Mike Miller is just that much better than Paul Pierce? Chucky Atkins is a better open court point guard than Rajon Rondo? I don't get it.

To look at the other extreme, let's say the Celtics are fortunate enough to land Greg Oden. Forget the fact that Oden is the consensus number one pick, he is also the best fit for the team because of the impact he makes on the defensive end. Wouldn't then the natural inclination be to model the team on the deadly inside-outside game of the championship era San Antonio Spurs with Oden and Jefferson masquerading as Duncan and Robinson and Pierce/Szczerbiak/Green filling the Manu Ginobili/Sean Elliott/Robert Horry roles? It's a pretty nice dream, I admit.

The Celtics have some talented youngsters, but individual player progression alone isn't going to turn this franchise into a winner. A style of play that fits with the team's personnel has to be implemented, and there's no time like the present to do it. Right now, the C's seem to be a high post / cross screening / jumpshooting team on offense and a rotation missing / penetration allowing / absolute turnstile on defense.

What would I do? Well, if I couldn't turn the Celtics into Memphis east...

In the halfcourt I'd be in favor of a simple binary pick and roll defense system like the old Dick Harter blitzing schemes, because the current one implemented during training camp is definitely not working (which was the case even before all of the injuries). Play Rondo upwards of thirty minutes a night and have him pressure in the backcourt on every made basket. Do not double team the low post except on players that truly command one.

On offense, once Paul and Wally are healthy, do a total conversion to a low post oriented offense and run everything through Jefferson in the halfcourt. Opposing teams will have to pick their poison: either double Big Al and two passes later have
Pierce/Szczerbiak/Green/West get a wide open shot, or single cover Jefferson and have him score more than 50% of the time. Take transition buckets when available, and look to score more on the break with the proper units on the floor (smallball has really struggled in the halfcourt of late).

That's just one sensible man's opinion, and we all know that Doc is anything but. Rivers has had his hands tied recently, to be fair, but he too seems content with the idea of player progression / team regression, and that just isn't something that I can tolerate from the head coach.

This team needs a basketball identity, and it needs one now.

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Comments

Good article, Dobbs. I’m wondering if you are advocating playing a lineup of West, Green, Pierce, Wally and Al, though. That is the DEFINITION of small ball. Halfcourt small ball is losing basketball, IMO. If this team is going to use Al as our center, then they need to run to be competitive.

There is also the whole issue of who should be the starting point guard. To me that is an easy question to answer, especially for such a defensively challenged team. Rondo needs to be the point guard. He’s our best one to begin with, and Delonte isn’t even better than Bassy, never mind Rondo. If you are going to play Al at the 5, then we need to stop penetration as much as possible, and no one on the team is as good at that as Rondo. On the offensive end Rondo runs the offense every bit as well as Bassy, if not better, and both are far superior to West in this respect. EVERY statistical indicator points to that fact. There is also the whole if Al is going to be the 5, then we need to run aspect. Rondo is our best transition point guard. If we can’t get the easy transition basket, by all means run the offense through the post, but do not look to do that as the first option, because it would be an unmitigated disaster.

I’d love to get Oden. He would completely change this team with his presence. Just take a quick look at the team /- numbers and see what an injured Perk has meant to us. As dinged up as he has been, the team still does well when he’s in there for the simple reason that he shuts the paint down. Perk on his healthiest day isn’t Greg Oden. Oden would solve most of our defensive problems overnight. Combine him with Rondo’s pressure at the point of attack, and we would be one of the elague’s best defensive squads. Opposing point guards would be harrassed and denied penetration and even if they got through, Oden would be a nasty welcoming committee. We could force other teams into low percentage jump shots, and then would be able to hoover up rebounds with Oden, Jefferson and Pierce clearing the glass, with Rondo and Green snagging many of the ones that they didn’t get to. It would be a wonderful thing.

I’d love to have the bench be Telfair/West, Allen, Gomes, Perk and have that be the rotation, or even better make a trade that brought us in an even better bench player or players.

Good post, though.

by MikeDfromNP on Jan 16, 2007 10:59 PM EST reply actions

Love it….now all we need to do is grab Oden..hmmmm,I sure wish Stern would not mess up our draft pick this year.

by bopna on Jan 17, 2007 1:15 AM EST reply actions

I am in fact not advocating that lineup, but merely indicating that those are the players that would benefit from being on the court with Jefferson in that style of on offense.

I know your Rondolust, it is well-documented. :) Since he has gotten some playing time and has shown a willingness to shoot the basketball, I am all for starting him. I guess he figured it out that he actually has to take some shots, regardless of whether he makes them or not. It is abundantly clear that Rondo is superior to West or Telfair at the defensive end, I don’t think anyone with any sense would dispute that. Honestly, once Perkins gets healthy again, our best starting 5 is probably Perk, Jefferson, Pierce, Green, and Rondo. There’s plenty of size and plenty of defense in that lineup. At least we won’t have to watch Wally or Telfair get torched time and again by the opposing team’s starters. And I think that Wally, Gomes, West, and Telfair are just the type of players that would have success against another team’s second line guys.

Fire that Doc idiot, I want this gig. :D

by dobbs on Jan 17, 2007 1:31 AM EST reply actions

Dobbs, that line-up — Perk, Al, Pierce, Green, and Rondo — makes a ton of sense. The second unit would have a lot of firepower, and might not get exploited as bad on defense vs. subs, but those bench guys — Wally, D-West, Bassy, and Gomes — are the pieces Danny should be looking to trade, either for cap space or the right PG or C.

by Lunchpail on Jan 17, 2007 3:21 AM EST reply actions

I am sure DA is exploring trading those guys on a daily basis, but I have to assume that no moves will be made and we’ll be playing the hand we’re dealt for the rest of the season.

by dobbs on Jan 17, 2007 9:25 AM EST reply actions

The Celtics are deep. They have routinely outperformed the opposition’s reserves all season. The problem is that they can’t seem to find a rotation. It was true in the preseason, true in the regular season, and I predict it will be true once the starters return from their injuries.

I was stupified when Doc declared that the Celtics weren’t good enough to have a rotation in November, and we’ve all seen how that worked out. Now it’s become harder than ever to choose a rotation, because nearly every Celtic has proven that he can contribute. Injuries will probably decrease, but they will never go away.

So what is Doc to do? Choose a personality for the starting/finishing team, and a separate personality for the reserves. For example, play halfcourt with the starters and uptempo with the reserves.

Start Pierce, Wally, West, Jefferson and Perkins
Bring Rondo, Telfair, Green, Powe and Kandi off of the bench.

Gomes, Ray and Scal probably deserve better, but they don’t fit into the personality of the starting 5 or the reserves. Somebody has got to sit.

by ThickNThinFan on Jan 17, 2007 9:58 AM EST reply actions

I think Doc probably had the intention of creating a halfcourt starters unit and a speed bench unit coming out of training camp, but it all fell apart rather quickly because of his haphazard decisions regarding playing time and the “rotation”. Then things got compounded when players started to fall like dominoes, one at a time.

by dobbs on Jan 17, 2007 11:01 AM EST reply actions

Danny, please hire this man. Or at least, give Doc the CliffNotes to this article.

by newyorkceltics on Jan 17, 2007 3:09 PM EST reply actions

The old green team-white team philosophy with wholesale subsititions has merit.
Have the first team’s philosophy be to run, and the second team’s to play halfcourt.
First, it seems that most second tier players are more comfortable running, so we make the opposing bench do what they don’t like, play half-court.
Second, a half-court second team slows the game down, giving your starters more rest with less change of possessions.
Instead of a four-minute rest equaling 13-15 possesions, it may only equal 10-12 possesions.
However, the problem with this philosophy is our players don’t fit. Our two best players, Al and Paul, are more suited to a half-court game. While I am sure they could play uptempo, I am not sure that philosophy fits them as well. So Danny and Doc can talk about running, but they would be forcing their best players into the wrong system.

by MrG on Jan 17, 2007 3:12 PM EST reply actions

It’s a tough thing to say which players would thrive in which system, because frankly, we’ve never been serious about being up-tempo. Players have to buy in to what the coach is selling though. Barone’s players are playing like they’ve been let out of jail.

There’s no logical reason that the Celtics can’t handle the rigors of an up-tempo style — aren’t we one of the league’s youngest teams? Pierce isn’t a thoroughbred who lives to run free on the wing, but to be honest, are there many players on Memphis that fit this description? I hate to keep bringing it up, but it’s true. That’s why I have a hard time believing the philosophy that most of our players are better suited for the halfcourt game. There are really only 4 Celtics that I would consider slow enough that their contributions would be lessened in an open court style: Wally, Kandi, Perk, and Scalabrine. Kandi and Perk because they’re huge lumbering sorts, Scalabrine because he’s terrible, and Wally because he just has bad wheels. He might be a good trailer/3 point shooter, but we’ll never find out unless we give it an honest go. We just don’t know enough yet about how the Celtics would thrive in an up-tempo system because it’s never been paid more than lip service.

by dobbs on Jan 17, 2007 4:11 PM EST reply actions

Excellent post with grat points

by wbones1 on Jan 17, 2007 7:06 PM EST reply actions

Dobbs, if Paul committed to sprinting out and filling a lane, the other guys would have to follow suit. A big reason why Memphis is running is their two best players, Gasol and Miller, have fully committed to it. Granted, it’s tough for PP to do, since next to Al, he’s our best rebounder, but the young guys won’t feel free to run if the captain isn’t with them. Of all the highlights I have of Paul in my head, there none where he’s filling a lane. Whereas Larry, James Worthy, Mailman, David Robinson — a lot memories of those guys are on the break.

by Lunchpail on Jan 17, 2007 11:41 PM EST reply actions