Scouting the Scouts
Simultaneously the best and worst parts of NBA preview issues is this trend to get scouts to anonymously give opinions on each of the teams. They are insightful and they are petty, usually at the same time. The anonymity allows for freedom of saying what writers might be too afraid to. It also allows for cheap shots (perhaps to get back at organizations that didn’t give them a job). So it makes for entertaining reading, but as with anything, my advice is to take with a grain of salt.
So of course I couldn’t help but take a chance to look at what the scouts had to say about the Celtics. Below are the blurbs from the SI and ESPN previews (along with my reactions).
Sports Illustrated – Enemy Lines
As much as everyone wants to award everything to the Celtics after their big summer, I have some doubts. Is Ray Allen healthy enough to play 82 games? You could ask the same thing about Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. The point guard situation raises more questions. Then there are the big men: They’ll have to put Garnett at center sometimes because Scot Pollard can’t back up Kendrick Perkins there…
First point is as valid as it is obvious. They haven’t won anything yet and nothing in life is a guarantee. With that said, this is preview season, so the best anyone can do is give their best guess. So it isn’t all that shocking to see people latching on to a bandwagon that includes 3 of the game’s best players, now is it?
As for the second point, you can play the injury card on any team in the league. I could swap out the words Celtics for Spurs and Parker, Duncan, Ginobili for our big three and that sentence reads just as true.
I wish the scout had elaborated on the point guard questions, but I’m sure they’d revolve around Rondo’s shooting, inexperience, and lack of a backup. I can’t say that I can argue with any of those concerns. Time will tell.
I don’t think anyone is counting on much from Pollard, which is why I still hope that the team finds a serviceable big man soon. The lack of activity in free agency has me wondering if the team might be looking into a 2 for 1 type of trade sometime this season. Again, time will tell.
The trade for Garnett changed the whole outlook of the franchise. He’s a player who can carry a team, and he’ll be more the glue than Pierce ever was and Allen ever will be. If something happens to Garnett, then they’ll be the same as they were last year, because Pierce and Allen can’t get it done alone…I have grown accustomed to the swipes at Paul’s character over the years. A lot of it he brought on himself. Some of it is just lazy journalism. Lumping Ray Allen in with Paul here is a real head scratcher. Ray has been a team guy and solid citizen everywhere he’s been.
James Posey has close to a 7-footer’s wingspan, and that length is bothersome. They’ll be counting on him a lot as a defender…I didn’t realize that about his wingspan. That certainly helps doesn’t it? Am I the only one who is actually optimistic about the team’s chances of being a good defensive squad top to bottom? I know Pierce and Allen have a reputation for being weak defenders, but if the system works and the bigs can bail them out, there’s room for this to work. Hey, maybe that’s the kool aid talking, but I’ve also been impressed by the preseason efforts.
It’s obvious that Doc Rivers watches a lot of games. You might see somebody run something one night and then Rivers will be running it a few nights later.
This is a great little tid bit. For all the swipes we all take at Doc not being an X’s and O’s type of guy, there are things like this that come up and make you take pause. There’s also that cute little stat about the Celtics getting the most points out of timeouts in the league last year.
Clearly the guy knows a lot about the game and can draw up a play. I guess my biggest worry is how quickly he can react to what the other team throws at him. His adjustments have always seemed slow, and I don’t think you can blame the youth for that every time.
ESPN The Mag- Scout’s Take
It’s premature to say they’re a top team. Chemistry and depth breed success, and Boston has neither yet.True. Chemistry and depth take time and the Celtics don’t have the luxury of years of experience playing together. With that said, 82 games is a long time. It didn’t take Shaq and Wade that long playing together to make it all work. As far as depth is concerned, that will be a work in progress. There’s still a chance that a small move could be made before the deadline to add a layer of protection.
No matter what they say, making three stars work can be tricky. They might have been better off adding Garnett and using the money they gave to Allen to put solid pieces around KG and Pierce. Plus, the go-to trio are in their 30’s, so who says they’ll all make it to June?This is just flat out revisionist history. The Celtics don’t get Garnett without Ray Allen being in place already. That’s been covered pretty extensively. Besides, worst case is that one of the stars doesn’t work out and you trade him for those pieces this guy is talking about. But isn’t it better to take a shot with a full house first?
Even if they stay healthy, someone else will have to do some heavy lifting – and neither Perkins nor Rondo is ready. It’s asking a lot of an inexperienced, no-touch point guard to direct a team to a title.
There’s the dig on Rondo I was waiting for. And Perkins is an easy target too. I’m not saying they are perfect players, but the only real crime those two have committed is simply NOT being as good as the big three. And if they were, there would be issues about having 5 stars on one team. It’s always something.
So there you have it. A green eyed optimist’s reaction to the snarky scouts reviews. You have to think that there is some truth in the middle somewhere. As they say, that’s why they play the games.
Anyone else officially done with preview season and ready to get to the real one?
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Interesting read, Jeff. I don’t see the point that KG is more glue than RA or PP as being a dig on character. I see it as a recognition of the different level of impact they have when the team’s on the floor. And accurate.
As to Rondo, I see it as their giving RR credit for only being a weak link with the big 3 this early in his career. If he’s not as ‘good’ as them, that may well be just now, because he could conceivably be more valuable that RA or PP within a couple of years.
Finally, somehow that little observation about Doc—if actually true—doesn’t increase my confidence in his game strategy and play-design skills.
Nice article, Jeff. My only quibble was:
As for the second point, you can play the injury card on any team in the league. I could swap out the words Celtics for Spurs and Parker, Duncan, Ginobili for our big three and that sentence reads just as true.
I think what the writer was alluding to was that both Paul and Ray missed a significant amount of time last season, with Paul having injuries the year before, as well. KG has missed six games per season the last two years, after missing very few prior to that (although that was more due to the Twolves tanking than anything else).
I think that injuries are a concern with our team, moreso than with some other teams, whose stars have had recent injury free seasons. For instance, in your example, the Spurs “big three” missed 14 games last season; the Celtic trinity missed 68 ). Paul has had problems with the same elbow two years in a row, and KG and Allen have logged a ton of minutes (although this last point is true of many star players.) While all teams have injuries — and thus, the common refrain “they’ll be in trouble if their superstar goes down” is applicable to all teams — the Celtics do seem to have an elevated risk of losing one their stars for a lengthy time period, if recent history is any indication.
I don’t think the fact that KG missed 6 games the last 2 years means he is an increased risk for injury at all, in fact, we would be thrilled if he played in 76 games this year. This may be somewhat more applicable to RA and PP, but the point is still shaky. Both of them shut down prematurely last year when playing on lotto-bound teams, Pierce most certainly would have returned sooner and played more if there was anything at stake. Similarly, RA had surgery early purposely so he would be fully recovered by the start of this year, again, had there been anything on the line, he could have played out the season before having surgery. PP was a model of health until last year, the conservative approach taken with him in no way means he is now at greater risk of injury, or that this somehow is a harbinger of things to come. RA has similarly been fairly durable, and bone chip surgery on ankles is routine now, Big Al had the same thing done, and nary a word is spoken about this particular injury/surgery making him an increased injury risk. Granted, RA is older, but is also one of the most fit players in the league. I think as with most media templates, this is an easy target for those reviewing teams, as is “Rondo and Perk are the big question marks”.
A few comments: all the ESPN sports writers polled and we were #3 in the East, Bulls(1), then Pistons and us. I guess I rate us the #1.
Chemistry to me is blown way out of proportion. This will not be a major problem.
Perk and Rondo are a lot more serviceable, especially the way they compliment the Big 3 than the “experts” think.
Last point, of the big 3, the worst FT shooter is Pierce at 79, that my friend wins close games. Big Al for all the love we had for him, only shot 66. When you are trading baskets, not playing great D and one of your 2 main options is shooting 66% from the line, expect close loses. This year, expect the opposite.
by bceltfan on Oct 31, 2007 8:26 AM EDT reply actions
This team will get out of the gate no worse than 6-2. Many of the naysayers will watch as we go onto probably a 55 win season and then as the playoffs are ready to start, say we haven’t accomplished anything yet.
I saw Skip Bayless say that same thing yesterday on ESPN. Paraphrasing him he said we hold off the Nets to win our division but we get bounced in the first round because our Big 3 individually aren’t mentally tough enough to get past the first round.
IMHO, Mr. Bayless may have some serious words to eat.
by bceltfan on Oct 31, 2007 8:31 AM EDT reply actions
Rondo will get the better of more than half the points in the league right now. He’s not up to Kidd/Nash/Parker level by any means, but he’s a strength on this team not a weakness.
Soon other teams won’t exploit the point guard match up; they’ll try to minimize their deficit there.
It’s point guard retribution time.
Who knows? I can’t say at this point that some of the doubters are right or wrong.
What puzzles me is how they turn everything into a “chemistry” issue. That’s baloney. The issue is, will they play defense, particularly perimeter defense?
Garnett is a great defender, but not at the center position. He lacks the beef. Perkins is a good defender, but he’s foul prone. Will Pollard or Glen Davis defend well when Perkins is on the bench?
Pierce and Ray Allen are great scorers not known for their defense. We know that Posey will defend the other team’s stud when Posey is in the game, and Tony Allen can also fill that role. Who is going to do it when Posey and Allen are on the bench?
Another factor no one in the national media mentions is Rivers’ penchant for throwing games into the toilet with terrible 4th quarter coaching decisions. Will Rivers’ coaching be up to the standard that these quality players deserve?
I always get a kick out of the digs at Perk and Rondo…my prediction is that, by the time the playoffs roll around the media will be calling them solid veterans…the truth of the matter is that Perk will have fewer fouls because he is playing with elite vets (refs are human)..and as far as Rondo is concerned…well, he is just a talent…solid handle, extremely quick and a great defender..the media will actually see him play now that the Celtics matter..Jeff is 100% correct about injuries…if Shaq,Dirk,Lebron,Kobe,etc…go down, so does their team…
by Fastbreak on Oct 31, 2007 7:51 PM EDT reply actions


































