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PER Projections

In case you missed it, Hollinger projects players PER numbers for this year.  Here are the Celtics.

Not surprisingly KG (24.1) checks in at 9th in the league.  Pierce (21.31) is 23rd and Ray Allen (20.64) is 26th.  The next Boston player (Tony Allen at 15.5) doesn't show up till 104. 

ScalClocking in with a whopping 5.69 is Scalabrine.  Here's what Hollinger had to say about him:

The fear in Boston is that the Celtics' offseason moves will require them to give Scalabrine more playing time. The first two years of his five-year, $15 million deal have been a disastrous failure and there's no reason to expect any different in Year 3, but Doc Rivers seems to like him and Boston has a thin bench.

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Once again, the only stat that matters is Wins and Losses. You don’t need the best PER players to win, you need the best TEAM. There’s a lot more that goes into making a successful team. Our team looks promising, and I can’t wait to watch how the season (and postseason) progress.

by joeb on Oct 9, 2007 5:51 PM EDT reply actions  

in my personal opinion, john hollinger is full of crap.

BSPN that’s what i call it…BSPN (apart from a couple of writers)

by celticmaestro on Oct 9, 2007 5:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, so much for Hollinger.

by webmaster on Oct 9, 2007 6:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Well brian Scalabrine actually ranks too high for my taste

disastrous failure…not that much…..
failure……………mmm…close

by Edgar on Oct 9, 2007 6:15 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t get it. He projects everybody on the team to have a lower PER than last year except for Leon Powe and Kendrick Perkins. How does that make any sense?

by DimpusBurger on Oct 9, 2007 6:18 PM EDT reply actions  

eh, who cares. we got a ball game tomorrow. nevermind the stats here come the celtics.

by kuberski on Oct 9, 2007 6:21 PM EDT reply actions  

He had a career high 1 rebound in 15 minutes in the first game. Not bad for 6-9 “235” ;D ;D ;D

Not to mention all the “intangibles” he brings to the table.

by iowa plowboy on Oct 9, 2007 6:33 PM EDT reply actions  

again with the thin bench arguments….. I admit it is not the deepest, but it has got to be deeper than 50% of the rest of the benches in the league….

by Cman on Oct 9, 2007 6:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Why do we have to care about this again?

by kozlodoev on Oct 9, 2007 6:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Isn’t this the same mechanism that he used to conclude that Bill Russell was the sixth best center of all time?

by cool breeze on Oct 9, 2007 6:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Boston has a thin bench? Huh? We have only played one preseason game? Doesn’t the bench get a chance to play first and prove itself?

Boston has a thin bench? Now…..if you are playing Scali in game #30 and he is playing like he played last year….then either your bench is as thin as I am old, or your coach is a few pills short of a full dose.

by Master Po on Oct 9, 2007 7:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Scal will get 6 min. a game and then some. He won’t be the disaster of the past couple years. He simply needs to hustle, play smart and do what his limited capabilities will allow to hold the fort for the starters.

Scal’s #s will be about 8 min, 4 pt, 2 reb. Not much but our 2nd unit has better scorers than what it has had the past several years. Scal will know his role and fill it.

by docextension on Oct 9, 2007 7:33 PM EDT reply actions  

This guy’s PER rating reminds of the NCAA experts preseason football rankings.

by docextension on Oct 9, 2007 7:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Latest rumor I hear is that Juwan Howard is lobbying to become a Celtic. So if and when that type of deal goes down, what does Scal’s PER rating matter.

by docextension on Oct 9, 2007 7:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Scal played pretty well last year. He has a role on this team.

by footey on Oct 9, 2007 8:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Judging by Hollinger grades the Spurs, the C’s shouldn’t have much to worry about. They’ve got the Big Three, with about the same scores as the C’s, and their next best score is Matt Bonner, who comes in at abot league average, like Tony Allen. B Barry plays the Posey roll, and the rest of the bench hovers around 10 or lower. Basically, judging strictly by PER, the C’s shouldn’t be too concerned with their lack of production after the Big Three.

by theham on Oct 9, 2007 8:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Jeff,

The Celtics don’t have that thin of a bench. Posey, Pollard, House, Allen. That is not bad at all. I disagree with that premise. Who has that great of a bench in the east. Crazy talk.

by Pucaccia on Oct 9, 2007 9:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Scalabrine was signed for four years with a fifth year the
 Celtics option. I just want to clear that up for Hollinger who in a smooth and sly way seems more intent to ridicule the C’s than to report fairly.

by gustusias on Oct 9, 2007 10:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice one cool breeze, I love it!

by IdahoGreen on Oct 9, 2007 10:49 PM EDT reply actions  

yeah but last good team scal was on he had a per of just under 12 with the nets year before he came hear in all fairness, so we will see

by celtpride34pp20ra5kg on Oct 10, 2007 12:46 AM EDT reply actions  

oh yeah, and pierce kg and allen are so sick

by celtpride34pp20ra5kg on Oct 10, 2007 12:47 AM EDT reply actions  

theham, i agree

by celtpride34pp20ra5kg on Oct 10, 2007 12:48 AM EDT reply actions  

I’ve decided that from now on, all writers will be evaluated using an RAPFR, or rational argument production factor ratio.

To calculate RAR, you take the number of words they type per article, then, based on how long it took them to write the article, project out how many words they could type in a 20 hour period, then multiply it by the percentage of ‘’decent points’’ they made in the article. Or something like that. And somehow, that will determine their true value as writers. Because actually reading articles and judging their merits doesn’t work anymore, I’ve decided. Just like John Hollinger has convinced many basketball fans that actually watching players play and making assessments can be replaced by plugging box score stats into convoluted formulas.

If we try hard enough, we can replace all observational analysis with meaningless formulas. John Hollinger should know: He’s been selling the idea, successfully, to basketball fans for years.

by Cousin It on Oct 10, 2007 1:20 AM EDT reply actions  

scali 0 pts 1 reb 2 to in 15 and 1/2 min
wallace(undrafted rookie) 2 pts 2 reb in 3 1/2 min

I hope we dont get into the well he makes more than wallace
or powe so he should play more crap!

by perk on Oct 10, 2007 7:04 AM EDT reply actions  

Wallace only score that bucket because of a sweet feed by Scalabrine. Sometimes stats DO lie.

by Jeff Clark on Oct 10, 2007 8:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Me thinks Mr Hollinger knows nothing about Scals. I know alot of the people on this blog don’t think much of Scals either. Just remember when he played for NJ. He’s a guy that can hurt you in a number of ways, most intangible and invisible on a stat sheet. Why was he so bad in Boston? NJ-good vet team. Boston past—bad young team. Boston now-good vet team. I think if people allow themselves they will appreciate Scals this year.

by TrueGreen on Oct 10, 2007 9:26 AM EDT reply actions  

theham said
Judging by Hollinger grades the Spurs, the C’s shouldn’t have much to worry about. They’ve got the Big Three, with about the same scores as the C’s, and their next best score is Matt Bonner, who comes in at abot league average, like Tony Allen. B Barry plays the Posey roll, and the rest of the bench hovers around 10 or lower. Basically, judging strictly by PER, the C’s shouldn’t be too concerned with their lack of production after the Big Three.

——————————————————-

theham, one question:

Who plays the Popovich role on the C’s?

When that part is addressed, you can make a fair comparison.
Because neither Popovich, Frank, or Scott would have allowed Scal to smell the court if he came into camp grossly out of shape. He was productive in NJ because he was in good condition. Look at NJ photos and compare them to C’s photos. Apparently they haven’t weighed Scal since NJ.

I’ll appreciate Scal when he comes into a game in shape, hits an occasional open shot, and averages more rebounds per 10 minutes than Earl Boykins. Until then, I’ll continue to ask why? Why?, Every time he leaves the bench.

by iowa plowboy on Oct 10, 2007 10:25 AM EDT reply actions  

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