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20 Game Rule

kg5.jpgIn the past, I've promoted this thing called the "20 game rule."  My only complaint with it is that the name in itself is somewhat misleading.  It isn't supposed to be a "rule" so much as a "guideline."  The gist of it is this:  Don't judge your team until you've seen them play 20 games.

Twenty games is enough to let a team knock the rust off the offseason.  Twenty games is enough for a team of new personalities to mesh and learn to play with each other.  In the past, I would be talking about 2 twenty games being enough for a young team to set up a rotation and create an identity (sadly that never did happen last year).

I think we can all assume that this team is going to be very, very from the word go.  With that said, I don't think the team will be able to prove it is great (or not great) in the first week or even the first month.  It just takes time.

Practically speaking here's what this means:  If this team loses to the Hawks in the fourth game, I won't be calling for Doc's head.  If the team starts 5 - 0, I won't start talking about the Finals as a foregone conclusion.  However, if after twenty games the team has won 15 of those games, I'll be feeling pretty great.  If they can't win 10 of them, I'll be feeling pretty bad.  On the other hand, if they drop the first 5 and end up winning 5 in a row, that's not so bad either.  The season is long, a lot will happen between now and the end. 

The players and coaches will take it one game at a time.  I'm going to try to take things a quarter at a time.  Of course I'll be riding the waves up and down and reacting to the games as they happen.  I just want to reserve judgment till I've seen enough to make a judgment on.

So with all that said, lets take a look at those first 20 games. 

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Nov 2    vs Washington  8:00 pm                ESPN, CSN          

 Nov 4   at Toronto           2:30 pm                               

 Nov 7   vs Denver            7:30 pm                               

 Nov 9   vs Atlanta            7:30 pm                               

 Nov 10 at New Jersey   7:30 pm                NBA, YES             

That's a pretty tough opening week plus.  Four playoff teams in five games.  Atlanta would seem to be a pushover but then we get Jersey on the back end of a back-to-back.  It should come as no surprise that Hibachi is fired up for this game.  The whole league is going to be gunning for us now.  Teams will get up for games against the C's like they would games against the Spurs, and we haven't even won anything yet.  Come to think of it, maybe that's why they are even more fired up.

 Nov 13 at Indiana            7:00 pm                FSIN      

 Nov 14 vs New Jersey   7:30 pm                YES        

 Nov 16 vs Miami              7:30 pm                SUN      

 Nov 18 at Orlando           6:00 pm                NBA      

 Nov 21 vs Golden State                7:30 pm                FSBA     

This stretch isn't much easier since 4 of them made the playoffs and Indy just missed last year.  On the other hand, I see these teams as prime candidates to take a step back or fail to meet expectations.  Golden State isn't as good as they played in the playoffs.  Orlando is still putting the pieces together (like us).  Miami will be missing Wade.  Indy and Jersey are just going in the wrong direction.

 Nov 23 vs LA Lakers        7:30 pm                KCAL     

 Nov 24 at Charlotte        7:00 pm                               

 Nov 27 at Cleveland       7:00 pm                NBA, FSOH         

 Nov 29 vs New York       8:00 pm                TNT, MSG           

 Nov 30 at Miami              8:00 pm

Thanksgiving week should be fun as the Kobe show comes to town (either Kobe will be on the team or we'll get to see what he left in his wake).  Then there is the LeBron show.  Then the Circus.  Then Miami again.  Did I totally just overlook the Bobcats?  I think they'll actually sneek up on people this year (if Okafor can stay on the court).

 Dec 2    vs Cleveland       12:30 pm FSOH 

 Dec 5    at Philadelphia  7:00 pm                CSNP    

 Dec 7    vs Toronto          7:30 pm                               

 Dec 8    at Chicago           8:30 pm                WGN    

 Dec 12  vs Sacramento  7:30 pm                KXTV

Another tough stretch with Cleveland, Toronto, and (Kobe's?) Bulls.  If we are rolling by this time and can beat all those teams, I'll be feeling pretty happy about our chances this year.

How many wins do you think we'll get?  Will we struggle to get everything fitting together or will we come out of the gates firing on all cylinders?  Will you join me by waiting 20 games to make up your mind about this (or any) team?

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I remember you broke the rule last year….

by johnnymost on Nov 1, 2007 6:07 AM EDT reply actions  

I sure did. Forgot to mention that. Sometimes, the team just stinks that much. ;)

by Jeff Clark on Nov 1, 2007 7:25 AM EDT reply actions  

I think 20 games is a good guideline to go by. Yet I’m more on the 40 game rule. I think a teams schedule has a lot to do with it. Is the team playing more home games then road games in their first 20 games? How many play-off teams from a year ago are they playing in that span? Have those team improve or taken a step back? That is why I think 40 games a little less then half the season is enough to tell me if my team one of the top teams in the league or will they be in a dog fight to get into the play-offs?

by CT34 on Nov 1, 2007 7:59 AM EDT reply actions  

There is two caveats to the 20 game rule. First, while I think chemestry is overrated, the team should get better as the year goes on as they learn how to play together. Second, Boston is in the unique position of being both a contender and having the ability to offer a quality vet real rotation time. Boston will be a prime desitination for any vet that gets bought out this year. I really think that before February they will add at least one quality player to the bench this way. Absent injuries, the team should be better in its last 20 than it is in its first 20.

by JohnCK on Nov 1, 2007 8:10 AM EDT reply actions  

yes you are. You manage the media, collect opinions, and distribute them. It doesn’t have much to do with your own opinion, as your ability to distribute the info to so many people, at their leisure. Which makes your medium more important than theirs. Here is your 15 minutes – which could be 15 years. Make the most of it and enjoy.

by johnnymost on Nov 1, 2007 11:12 AM EDT reply actions  

Well said Jeff. That is a great game plan, but come on… Do you really think the majority of the posters/readers here have any chance of reserving judgement for 20 games?! They can’t make it through an entire preseason game without flipping back and forth. I agree one hundred percent with the concept, but it’s not really going to happen. After that Cleveland preseason game I myself was giddy with the idea we were a lock for the finals. Then look what Cleveland did last night. We may be better than Cleveland, but how will we stack up after a Western road trip. That’s what I want to see. How do we respond to a loss where there is some controversy on shot selection by one of the Big Three (probably PP) and there is some tension. Then I will be able to judge where we are headed to more than the W-L after 20.

by EJPLAYA on Nov 1, 2007 11:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Unless the Cs seriously upgrade their defensive commitment, they will be a disappointment. I see Garnett, Tony Allen, and Rondo there. Perk is halfway there. Other than that, I’m concerned. BTW, Delonte West looked lost last night and Iverson picked him clean for baskets at least three times.

by The Real Large James on Nov 1, 2007 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Jeff do you always wear a green shirt? or just for the glossy 8 X 10? LJ I watched The Deer Hunter last night AGAIN and thought of you. Don’t worry about our D – we will be fine.:-\

I have a one game rule and reserve the right to have my opinion blow like a willow tree in Kansas wind storm

by Master Po on Nov 1, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions  

part of the fun of being a fan is overracting, so maybe this 20 game rule is just so I can sound preachy and clever – who knows?

and that green shirt is in my rotation, it is very bright in person too – I don’t wear it on occasions when I don’t want to draw a lot of attention to myself ;) — who am I kidding? like I’ll ever shy away from attention ;D

by Jeff Clark on Nov 1, 2007 12:18 PM EDT reply actions  

by the way, what ever happened to the times when there would be 100 comments on posts here? is it because the blog posts are coming too fast and too often to foster discussion or are my topics just that lame lately? inquiring minds want to know

by Jeff Clark on Nov 1, 2007 12:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Atlanta played extremely well in the preseason. The Hawks are no pushover. IMHO the worst team on tap in games 1-20 is Miami without Wade. Charlotte always plays the Celtics tough, particularly at home.

by Brickowski on Nov 1, 2007 12:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Could it be that Brick’s posts are about 1/10 of what they used to be? Like them or not his comments inspired comments.

Could it be that the majority of posts on here when there were tons were whining, negative, and critical. Now that we have the team in place that we do there isn’t very much to complain about yet!

BTW – Po, you can definitely reserve the right to change your mind after every game. It doesn’t help your pretty high credibility though. It is fine to be wrong, but it is nice to see you believe in something regardless of which side it is.

by EJPLAYA on Nov 1, 2007 12:28 PM EDT reply actions  

I’ve been too busy watching other teams to post alot here. I also had some trouble logging on until I figured out how with the new site. The “control panel” at the top still doesn’t work for me.

I plan to watch the game tomorrow. Jim O’Brien was able to beat the Wiz without Jermaine O’Neal (who is headed to the Lakers IMHO). Let’s see if Rivers can do the same.

by Brickowski on Nov 1, 2007 1:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Hey Jeff,

Ever think of getting everyone who posts together in one event…… ala the Big Winnie Award show………

by Ancient Red on Nov 1, 2007 1:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Just remember EJPLAYA

The undiscerning mind is like the root of the tree…it absorbs all…even the poison that would kill it

I’ll try not to bend or suck up any poison ;D

by Master Po on Nov 1, 2007 2:40 PM EDT reply actions  

and BTW Brick how are those Raptors doing?

by Master Po on Nov 1, 2007 2:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Winnie definition per Webster’s

“an award presented annually by a professional organization for notable achievement in fashion design”

Ancient Red – will Jeff be attending the award show in that shirt? Should we invite Clyde Walt Frazier from the Knicks to give Jeff fashion pointers for future public appearances. It’s either him or Tommy H.

by Master Po on Nov 1, 2007 2:47 PM EDT reply actions  

20 games is a good barometer but by game 40 we’ll either have Coach Ainge or Coach Thibodeau. Rivers will be in the broadcast booth where he belongs.

I don’t think there’s much variable between home and away games as far as expectations are concerned. Expectations are way too great for a Rivers’ coached team to come close to fulfilling. By mid-season, Danny will have to make a move to save his job.

by iowa plowboy on Nov 1, 2007 3:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Master Po said:
  and BTW Brick how are those Raptors doing?

1-0 so far.

by Brickowski on Nov 1, 2007 3:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Hey, I own that same green shirt. Though it doesn’t fit me anymore. The sleeve reach my elbows nowadays, so either my arms got twice as long or the shirt shrunk in the wash ;)

But Jeff – during the summer, all we could do was talk(and gripe, complain, etc.) Now we can watch games, we don’t need to talk as much. That, plus more posts, limits the number of comments.

by Cullain on Nov 1, 2007 5:16 PM EDT reply actions  

My only concern KG saves energy for the end of the year. 1st 20 games 1st unit, out of this world most improved lineup in 1 year. Concerns, building a rotation with a balance of defense and offense. Coaching will be tough because role players are less consistent then the 3 stars. I am OK with 10-10 start because the role players and the defense will start to gel in games 20-40.

by CelticsWin on Nov 1, 2007 5:31 PM EDT reply actions  

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