Game 1 Scouting Matchup

by Green17 on Nov 2, 2007 8:00 AM EDT in Boston Celtics Games

[Editor's Note: Eric Weiss is going to provide a key-matchup scouting report before every game. Enjoy. - Green17]

Arenas vs. Rondo

Arenas’s top 3 tendencies: ISO(28% of the time), Transition(18%), P&R/Single (16%)

- Goes right 49% of the time
- pulls up for jumper 39% of the time (NBA% average: 45th percentile)
- drives to basket 61% of the time (NBA% excellent: 86th percentile)

- Goes Left 51% of the time
- pulls up for jumper 47% of the time (NBA% very good: 69th percentile)
- drives to basket 53% of the time (NBA% excellent: 87th percentile)

NBA% Rating:
83-100=Excellent // 65-82=Very Good // 51-64=Good // 31-50=Average // 15-30=Below Average // 0-14=Poor

-Statistics courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology-

The Match up:
On the left side set-up, force him baseline if you can as its his lowest efficiency in ISO situations (60th percentile.) Set up on the right side the best chance to limit his effectiveness is to force him into the pull-up jumper, which is hard to do as Arenas uses his size to good effect and can usually bull his way to the basket. From the top of the key Arenas is least effective going toward his right however, (50th percentile) and good communication with the help defender in the post should help to force Arenas into more pull-up shots.

When Arenas gets hot there isn’t much to be done about it. His percentages are extremely solid in all facets of the game. Like most scorers of his caliber, it is best to try and deny him the ball for as long as possible and try to limit his touches to the last 12 seconds of the shot clock. Arenas uses screens well to rid himself of pesky defenders, so its going to be up to Rondo to stay tough and cut off the drives to the basket off of these cuts. Following over the top or trailing on these motion plays will wreak havoc on the Celtics defense as Arenas will be able to turn the corner and drive uncontested into the paint area-this will get the big men in foul trouble.

Rondo’s best defensive strategy should probably rely on a collaborative effort between him and the strong-side post defender. Ball-denial for as long as possible followed by heavy pressure on the catch. If Arenas is set up on the left side Rondo should hedge against a right handed drive by leaving the left baseline open. As long as the post defender is aware of this strategy the combination of Rondo and he should force a decent amount of baseline pull-ups, which aren’t a significant strength of Arenas.

Arenas is great at balancing out his drives all over the court, so playing the percentages and working together will be essential. On the right side of the court the strategy should be much the same, pressure and contain with strong-side interior rotation. Arenas is very good at countering with a mid-drive crossover though, so patience and intelligence will be needed when the defense is in motion.

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Comments

Great analysis Eric (as usual) – I’ll be looking for Rondo to try and force him baseline or at least deny him the ball.

by Jeff Clark on Nov 2, 2007 8:31 AM EDT reply actions

It is amazing to me that someone is actally keeping the stats of how often he goes left and right, how often he pulls up for the jumper, etc… wow. I am simply amazed that this type stuff is tracked.

Of course I just got the smackdown by my ownset of haters below in my article about me not looking at scoring effeciencies off the timeouts and that I apparently falsely and horribly accused Doc in being non productive off timeouts (the horror of it all) So Eric I hope these stats are correct ;D

Thanks Eric – your analysis, as Jeff said, is impressive. Hopefully Rondo gets some help and Agent Zero has an off night shooting. It would be hard for me to “give him” the baseline however on either side

by Master Po on Nov 2, 2007 8:46 AM EDT reply actions

Well, Posey can’t play, but Scalabrine may not play either, so those two factors cancel each other out.

I agree with Eric that Rondo’s defense on Arenas will be key. Just stay in front of him as much as you can, and if you can’t, funnel him to the post defender. It’s like defending Dwayne Wade: if you can turn him into a jump shooter, you are way ahead. He may still kill you from outside if he gets hot, but you KNOW he’s going to kill you if you let him get to the basket.

Rondo also has to stay out of foul trouble.

by Brickowski on Nov 2, 2007 9:17 AM EDT reply actions

Good job with the scouting matchup. Is the stuff from “Synergy Sports Technology” available for free somewhere or do you have to pay?

by FrieCod on Nov 2, 2007 9:47 AM EDT reply actions

Well thats really awesome of you Eric to break down the matchup like that. I think it’s great that Rondo starts the season with the job of locking up Mr. Arenas. I’m looking for Rondo to set the tone for what will be an impressive year for him on the defensive end. THE DAY HAS FINALLY ARRIVED! HOOO-RAH!

by alchemist on Nov 2, 2007 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

Also it’s pretty amazing that Arenas doesn’t seem to favor going left(51) or right(49). You’d think that over the course of a season there’d be some significant trend to one side or the other, especially since he seems to be a better player going to his left. Without purposefully tracking when he goes left or right, I don’t know how he could get these percentages so close. Anyone know what the left/right breakdown is for Delonte?

by FrieCod on Nov 2, 2007 10:28 AM EDT reply actions

50/50 right/left is ridiculous.

I think the matchup of the night is KG being pulled away from the hoop by Jameson. How do we adjust to that to keep him around the hoop to help on Arenas’ drives??

by rickyfan3.0... on Nov 2, 2007 10:36 AM EDT reply actions

Many players favor one side over the other and its the best players who can be effective going either direction….Gilbert still handles better with his right hand and that’s displayed by his ability to get to the basket at a much higher clip when driving right, but he’s efficient no matter where he is on the court…

NBA teams use this data to put together strategies for playing people like Arenas and I’m sure the Celtics have there own ideas about how to incorporate defensive rotations to limit Arenas…the fact that Boston sends their interior defender out on high pick-and-rolls could cause some rotation break downs at times as Arenas will surely try and attack while the interior defense is muddled..

For Rondo’s part, the last thing he should do is try and go it alone by being overly agressive and picking up cheap fouls…Gilbert is too good to handcuff one-on-one most of the time so trusting your teammates to help and shadowing Arenas instead of bumping him and reaching in is the way to go in my book…

by BillfromBoston on Nov 2, 2007 10:43 AM EDT reply actions

I think we will also see Tony Allen and Eddie House (who is a decent defender) on Mr. Arenas. We may also see a fair amount of 2-3 zone to stop his penetration. So it’s not all going to be on Rondo.

by Brickowski on Nov 2, 2007 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

Arenas goes for 30
Washington starts the NBA season 0-2

No one is going to slow down Arenas. In fact, the more shots he takes the better we’ll do. The more one dimensional their offense is the better it will be for Boston.

by tmcdon on Nov 2, 2007 11:08 AM EDT reply actions

Rondo is the key player every night

by Who on Nov 2, 2007 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

Wizards do not have speedy small point guards so play a lot of zone to keep KG & Perk down low on Defense because the Wizards are a good rebounding team and go to the basket well. Tony Allen will play a lot if he stays out of foul trouble he is the exact size of Arenas and can disrupt his game. Haywood got 11 offensive rebounds last game and Butler, Arenas and Jamison all had a lot of rebounds. On Offense I think we need to run the entire game, their 3 stars all play a lot of minutes. We should use our bench so we take advantage of that. Rotation of bench players will be key tonight

by CelticsWin on Nov 2, 2007 11:45 AM EDT reply actions

On what planet is Eddie House a decent defender?

by dobbs on Nov 2, 2007 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

82games says that while playing SG he held his counterpart to a 14 PRE (below average). I think adequate or not as bad as you think are probably more precise than “decent”, but we’ll all get a chance to Scout tonight.

by Brendan on Nov 2, 2007 1:27 PM EDT reply actions

amazing analysis. makes you wonder how much of this information the coaching staff utilizing and if they have access to even deeper stats that would blow our minds further. i am SO cutting outta work early to catch this game on espn-hd!!

by hapa17 on Nov 2, 2007 2:08 PM EDT reply actions