11/4 Scouting Matchup

by Green17 on Nov 4, 2007 9:09 AM EST in Boston Celtics Games

Bosh vs. Garnett

The Match up:
Bosh prefers to face up when he’s in the post as opposed to keeping his back to the basket and trying to back his man down. This is logical considering Bosh has a slight frame and is better at operating in space than with heavy contract. Bosh is much more comfortable on the left block, (87th percentile) than he is on the right, (49th percentile) so Garnett must be sure to deny him deep position on the left side.

Although he’s highly effective putting the ball on the floor, Bosh can be bated in to taking the no-dribble jumper, which he isn’t overly effective at. Bosh is especially apt to take the early shot when he is isolated on the left side, (31st percentile) or top of the key, (43rd). On the right elbow Bosh likes to drive baseline for the finish and is dangerous when he gets a step on his defender. He’ll use numerous foot-fakes and counter spins to get to where he wants to go, so Garnett should stay down and wait for Bosh to commit before going for the ball

Bosh is a tough player to defend individually, but Garnett has the physical tools to stay with him and challenge his shots on the drive. Bosh has good range for a big man, but his perimeter shooting is statistically his lowest percentage option offensively. Staying square and not biting on shot fakes is the best way to keep Bosh from blowing by when he puts the ball on the deck.

Bosh has a great array of fakes and counter moves, so its easy to get drawn in reaching for the ball and allowing him to draw fouls. The best defensive strategy is probably for Garnett to give Bosh a bit of space and see if he’ll jack up some shots with the extra room. Cutting off drives all the way to the hoop and working Bosh hard when he tries to set up on the left side should keep him out of his comfort zone and push him toward less efficient looks. Don’t send him to the line by being overly aggressive because a player of Bosh’s caliber can’t be shut down completely.

Bosh's tendencies: Single Covered in Post (25%), ISO (17%), Spot Up (16%)

Goes right 39% of the time

When going right, Bosh:

pulls up for jumper 28% of the time (NBA% good: 63rd percentile)
drives to basket 72% of the time (NBA% very good: 69th percentile)

Goes Left 61% of the time

When going left, Bosh

pulls up for jumper 25% of the time (NBA% below average: 29th percentile)
drives to basket 75% of the time (NBA% very good: 80th percentile)

NBA% Rating: 83-100=Excellent // 65-82=Very Good // 51-64=Good //31-50=Average // 15-30=Below Average // 0-14=Poor -Statistics courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology-

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Comments

These are awesome btw. Excellent work.

by kgiessler on Nov 4, 2007 9:38 AM EST reply actions

Yes they are. Thanks Eric.

by Green17 on Nov 4, 2007 9:41 AM EST reply actions

What it comes down to… Bosh is EXTREMELY similar to KG. The normal truths are as follows: If you’re faster or quicker than KG, he makes up for it with his length. If you are bigger than KG, he can neutralize it with his quickness and athleticism. Bosh is a very similar build, and equally as quick… if not a slight step quicker. They both nail jumpers, they are both solid passers, and they can both go down low and do some damage when the mood strikes.

I’m expecting similar numbers for the two. Somewhere around 20 points, 12 boards, 2 blocks. KG should have a slight 5-4 or 4-3 advantage in assists.

by Big Ticket on Nov 4, 2007 12:14 PM EST reply actions

Great analysis, but I think the key to the game is Bargnani. If he’s on it makes it that much more difficult for the Cs to match up. Perk does a decent job on Bosh, and Garnett will be on Bargnani. This is going to be a tough game. We get by this one and it’s a huge step.

by amenhotep04 on Nov 4, 2007 12:21 PM EST reply actions

Bosh and Garnett matchups are fantastic. They take on a student vs the master type feel to a game. Garnett is more well rounded player but both will have a huge impact.

I don’t think KG will take Bosh. That has to be Perk. Perk can’t even pretend to guard Bargnani. Anyway we’ll see who matches up with whom.

by Who on Nov 4, 2007 12:48 PM EST reply actions

I really don’t think Perk was a chance guarding Bosh either. Not sure… but what are the chances we see 20-25 minutes of KG on Bosh and Posey on Bargnani? I like that matchup better than having Perk guard either.

by Big Ticket on Nov 4, 2007 12:51 PM EST reply actions

There is a spectrum of Celtic fanatics. I am one but I am not this far out. To me this is painful over-analysis but whatever floats the boat of a Celtics fan is OK with me. I can’t wait to watch the long tall master head-to-head with the long tall up&comer. Surely KG will take Bosh much of the time. Forget the stat diarrhia and love it for its pure Bball match up.

by Wildblu1 on Nov 4, 2007 1:10 PM EST reply actions