Player Matchups: Anthony vs. Pierce

by Jeff Clark on Nov 7, 2007 1:40 PM EST in Boston Celtics Games

The Match up:

Anthony is one of the best in the NBA at getting to the hoop and finishing (90^th percentile.) NOT including post up plays, Anthony averages about 12 possessions per game finishing at the basket. Despite Anthony's propensity for hitting difficult shots and his fundamentally sound form, Anthony is extremely poor overall as a shooter, (20^th percentile.) However, Anthony takes nearly 9 shots per game from the field separate from his shots off of drives, face-up, turn-around, set-shots, and shots off screens. He's actually a better shooter statistically when guarded than when unguarded, jumping up 10 percentile points when challenged, which may bolster his reputation as a clutch-shooter.

Anthony mixes his drives well, going left and right almost equally in terms of frequency. But Anthony is significantly less effective when driving left and is almost entirely reliant on getting to the basket in these instances. It's a credit to his strength and speed that he is still able to finish at the basket a majority of the time even off of his weaker hand, so it's not an easy task to contain him when he's charging into the lane.

The best way for Pierce to defend Anthony is to try and force him left as much as possible, giving up the baseline drive when Anthony's on the left elbow and forcing him middle when Anthony is on the right. Melo's first step is dangerous but he will set up methodically on the wing and try and set his defender up with the threat of the pull-up, which he goes to often. Pierce would be wise to ignore the pump fakes and concentrate solely on the drive, being sure to overplay toward the weaker side and make Anthony drive through his chest.

There is no reason for Pierce to try and block shots, simply give ground and try and beat Anthony to the spot or funnel him into the interior defense. Anthony is sure to draw some fouls when driving to the basket because he'll put his head down and force the issue. His reputation will get him some of these calls no matter what the defensive positioning. Therefore, it is important for Pierce to not be overly-aggressive and try and "shut down" Anthony. Play to his vanity and give him the jumper early. If he misses the first few, tell him about it and see if you can't get into his head.

Anthony's tendencies: ISO(22% of the time), Single Covered/Post(16%), transition (15%)

- Goes right 53% of the time
- pulls up for jumper 45% of the time (NBA% very good: 67th percentile)
- drives to basket 55% of the time (NBA% excellent: 83rd percentile)

- Goes Left 47% of the time
- pulls up for jumper 47% of the time (NBA% below average: 22nd percentile)
- drives to basket 53% of the time (NBA% good: 58th percentile)

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Comments

Great write up? How ’bout Anthony trying to guard Pierce? I think that is equally important, because I think even if Melo is on his game offensively, Pierce should be able to match him.

by Big Ticket on Nov 7, 2007 2:49 PM EST reply actions

How is the write up not about AI? Carmelo is overrated. He doesn’t make players around him better. He’s not a concern. AI, even an older one, is.

Biggest factor is Camby’s presence on the defensive end blocking and (more importantly) altering shots.

by dmartin17 on Nov 7, 2007 2:55 PM EST reply actions

Why would Karl have Melo guard Pierce? They’ll probably put Diawara on Pierce.

by Brickowski on Nov 7, 2007 2:56 PM EST reply actions

Brickowski said:
Why would Karl have Melo guard Pierce? They’ll probably put Diawara on Pierce.

Then who guards Allen? Melo on Allen is an even worse matchup for Denver. If that’s the case… then run Allen off screens all day long and watch ’Melo tire out by halftime.

by Big Ticket on Nov 7, 2007 3:05 PM EST reply actions

Posey will get big minutes . AI and Melo will get theirs but we need to control the other guys like Kleiza, camby, najera etc. those are the guys who can hurt you. martin didn’t play last night and the knicks were able to control the paint and wear denver down. we have a mismatch against them at shooting guard but otherwise this will be a close game. our bench will need to play well for us to win. denver may be a bit fatigued after last night’s game pluys Iverson has a busted lip.Pierce needs to post up anthony. Balkman did a nice job for the knicks on melo and posey will have to do the same

by Red2 on Nov 7, 2007 3:19 PM EST reply actions

Well, Diarwa on Allen is just as bad for the Nuggets. Ray Ray can run him off screens too.

by Brickowski on Nov 7, 2007 3:29 PM EST reply actions

I love this stat I keep seeing on Cwlticsblog:

Goes right 53%
Goes left 47%

There was one last week that said:

Goes right 51%
Goes left 49%

I know there may be players for whom this stat would be meaningful. Like someone who goes right 80% of the time. That tells you something, and tells the defensive coaches and player something. But, seriously, when it’s 53% and 47%, that’s basically saying he goes left half the time and right the other half. So, all it’s telling the coaches and players is, ‘’Guard him going both ways.’’ It’s kind of a throw-away stat, don’t you think?

by Cousin It on Nov 7, 2007 4:26 PM EST reply actions

Then there’s Pierce: goes right 40, goes left 40, dribbles straight ahead into a triple team 20%.

by Brickowski on Nov 7, 2007 4:55 PM EST reply actions

i love these things

by Ian @ CelticsBlog on Nov 7, 2007 6:00 PM EST reply actions

Brick – I have questioned your statements here and there, but until recently never really questioned your basketball knowledge. What do you mean ‘’Diarwa on Allen is just as bad for the Nuggets, Ray Ray can run him off screens too. ’’ ?!

Diarwa is not the person that we want exhausted and tired at the end of the game, it is Melo. If Diarwa lights us up for 40 and they beat us then so be it. Your comment made absolutely no sense. Big Ticket is right on. If they keep trying to have Melo switch back away from Pierce then we have disrupted their D. If he stays then he has to chase him. Either way we win. Stick PP on Melo and make him work one way or the other.

You’re so sour about everything. Stop draggin us all down. Let us enjoy our best chance at a championship in awhile without the negativity. If you want to be negative, go post on the Sonics, TWolves, or Raptors blogs. They have plenty to whine about.

by EJPLAYA on Nov 7, 2007 6:34 PM EST reply actions

Oh come on. Melo isn’t going to chase Ray Allen around the perimeter either. They will put Melo on Perkins if they have to or (more likely) play zone.

The nice thing about having both Pierce and Allen is that it forces at least one of the other team’s offensive players to guard another scorer. But I’ll be shocked if Melo guards Pierce. If he does, Pierce ought to take it to the rack and foul him out.

One thing they will almost certainly do is use Iverson to double team and sag into the passing lanes, daring Rondo to shoot.

by Brickowski on Nov 7, 2007 6:44 PM EST reply actions

How is drives a throw-away stat? Knowing that a player DOESN’T favor a particular side is just as valuable as knowing he does—-plus its what he does and how well on each side of the drive that counts…can’t you see that?

Melo might drive 47/53, but his success on each side is drastically different…if he was an 80/20 driver but was highly effective going to the 20 side, i’d want to know that so I didn’t defend toward a strength, regardless of requency

by BillfromBoston on Nov 7, 2007 7:55 PM EST reply actions