Is Josh Smith More Valuable Than Luol Deng?
by Steve Weinman on Dec 11, 2007 12:24 AM EST
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PrintThe Hawks need to be televised more often. This team simply has too much promising young talent for that not to be the case. If the networks can find a way to schedule in Kevin Durant and his putrid Sonics ten times a week, it would hardly seem too much to ask for them to find a way to show the team with perhaps the most talented young nucleus in the league every now and then.
We already knew Joe Johnson could play. So can Al Horford . And Josh Childress. And Acie Law. And even Shelden Williams and Zaza Pachulia. Marvin Williams is immensely talented.
But today's spotlight shines on the reigning Eastern Conference Player of the Week, who turned in his best game of the week last night after he was awarded the title. That would be one Josh Smith.
Hold it. Back we go to the big market for a second. To Chicago, in fact, where Luol Deng has been hailed as the next great franchise player in Chicago and was supposedly a large part of the reason why the Bulls didn't acquire Kobe Bryant this summer: because they wouldn't give him up. Fair enough. At 22, the precocious Deng is one of the league's most versatile players. Standing 6-foot-9 and 220 pounds, he can play three positions. He can score (17.5 per game this season) and score efficiently, rebound (6.8) and defend very well. He is only expected to get better in the years to come, with the talent, the ability and the character to become one of the league's top players, especially as his outside shot improves. No arguments here with any of that. For what it's worth (fairly little in my estimation) Luol could play for my team any day.
But, see, here's the rub: Buried in Atlanta, Josh Smith could well be a bigger, better version of Luol Deng. Yes, Smith has been known to have had some character concerns, which does give Deng a major edge in that department. But like Deng, the kid is 22 and has a ways to go, and all indications seem to be that he is cleaning up his act in Atlanta. Meanwhile, like Deng, Smith stands 6-foot-9, but unlike Deng, Smith weighs 235 pounds and is much stronger. He lines up at power forward regularly for the Hawks but also has the type of game that allows him to play both wing spots as well. The scoring and rebounding numbers are remarkably comparable (Smith scores 18.0 points per and grabs 7.2 boards), and though Deng is a more efficient shooter from the field, Smith's edge in the other areas of the game is incredible. He dishes out 3.5 assists per game (to Deng's 1.7) and makes an incredible impact on the defensive end. While defense is a largely unquantifiable commodity, the fact that Smith is the only player across the Association in the top ten in blocks (at 3.6 per game, he is first) and steals (1.9 per) says a lot.
Further, one can't overlook the explosiveness factor with Smith. He has been known to electrify crowds with big slams and highlight-reel swats. Of course, electrifying crowds isn't the stuff of winning basketball. A blocked shot directed to a teammate means infinitely more than an "Ooooooh" swat out of bounds that leaves the opponent in position. However, at 22, with a long way to go in refining his game, it doesn't hurt that Smith has the ability to singlehandedly raise the energy in a building and more importantly the morale of his teammates with one play at anytime. With time, Smith should find the way to mess that explosiveness with controlled, sound basketball plays. While Deng can certainly do his part for his team, he doesn't have that factor as of yet.
We bring this all up now because the timing is particurlarly pertinent for two reasons. As was mentioned earlier, Smith received the honor for Eastern Conference Player of the Week on Monday afternoon. By the end of the evening, however, the man had made the previous week look like nothing, as he outshined my boy Dwight Howard in going for 25 points, 16 boards, 5 dimes, 4 steals, 4 blocks and just 2 turnovers in the Hawks' upset win over the Magic.
Josh Smith can play. So can a few of his 'mates. And as they continue to grow together, the whole of this nation will come to know it. In fact, when all is said and done, some might take him over the annointed savior-to-be in Hicag.
* * * * *
The tale of the tape has been laid out. Now, please don't hesitate to holler at us and share your preference: Josh Smith or Luol Deng? Thanks, and here's looking forward to hearing from you.
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Hey IP,
Thanks for writing in and for the kind words.
Truth be told, I think I’m with you. Much like yourself, I place a high premium on the value of character, and while I think Smith’s physical talents may ultimately be greater, if you gave me one or the other right now, I’m probably taking Deng as well.
All the same, I didn’t realize until thinking about it over the last couple of days how similar their respective games are and how comparable their numbers are in many regards. Definitely an fun comparison.
-sw
The strawmen cometh:
Luol Deng has been hailed as the next great franchise player in Chicago[/quote]
Who hails? He’s a very good young player, and I’m not sure what ‘franchise player’ means, but I think most Bulls observers are waiting for all-star level first.
[quote]was supposedly a large part of the reason why the Bulls didn’t acquire Kobe Bryant this summer: because they wouldn’t give him up.
First of all that’s never been confirmed. Besides, a trade for Bryant is far more complicated than giving up Deng, since you’d need 4-5 players to match Kobe’s salary.
by bullsblogger on Dec 11, 2007 12:19 PM EST reply actions
Matt,
I could certainly be wrong on this, but it feels like there had at least been some degree of speculation — most especially from the end of last season to the beginning of this one — that Luol was about to make The Jump to the next level and that he was on the verge of becoming something huge, perhaps even that untouchable guy to build around for the foreseeable future. You’re certainly closer to the team and the have a better beat on the pulse of its fans than I do, so if you see it very much otherwise, I could certainly buy that.
Regarding the trade for Kobe, I realize that it the issue of Deng being traded hasn’t been confirmed and that the deal didn’t center on him alone because of the need to put together a package. That said, there was much speculation that the Lakers’ interest in a deal would have hinged on him arriving in Los Angeles. I likely didn’t make it clear enough that it was more based on said speculation rather than actual confirmed reports when I made that assessment. Thanks for pointing that out.
All that said, as someone who gets to watch Luol on a nightly basis, who would you prefer?
Thanks for writing in.
-sw
Well I don’t watch Josh Smith every day, so it wouldn’t be fair :)
I just think this could’ve been approached simply as ‘Deng and Smith are both 22 year old forwards looking for contract extensions, lets compare them’. Instead of first building up some existing status for Deng and then tearing it down.
by bullsblogger on Dec 11, 2007 1:45 PM EST reply actions
Several C’s fans on this board laughed it off when I included Josh Smith on my Eastern Conference All Star Ballot and not Ray Allen (it’s in the ‘Can all of the Big Three make the All Star team’ thread). Smith has the obvious edge when it comes to stats, but others argued the Celtics record would get Allen on the team (which I agree, it very well could).
As much as I love having Ray on this team, Josh Smith is just a better overall player right now, in my opinion. The fact that the Hawks are a .500 team right now, to me, is equally as impressive as Allen being part of the Big Three that have the Celtics at 17-2.
2006-07 Adjusted /- Rankings
#17. Luol Deng
#117. Josh Smith
I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s flip-flopped at the moment, but comparing two very different players who have played for very different teams, with very different amounts of success falls into the impossible category.
Deng wins the career PER battle by decimal points, and 55 to 28 career win shares (excluding 2007-08) is a landslide in Deng’s favor.
by hscs on Dec 11, 2007 1:47 PM EST reply actions
I don’t think it’s close at all. I’d take Loul Deng every time and it would take me less than 2 seconds to make up my mind.
Josh Smith is a really interesting player but he has miles to go. He’s nowhere near an all-star level player and a lot of his weaknesses are very concerning.
For all the talk of Smith’s defense …. I think he’s barely above average. He is a fairly mediocre one-on-one defender – unlike Deng who is a fantastic one-on-one defender. He is also an odd off the ball defender. I break off the ball defenders into two types. The first is a solid guy who makes great rotations and can play team defense (think Joe Smith). The second is the type of guy who can play nice zonal defense and forces turnovers. The second type usually cheat of their man too often, lose focus on where their man is, get caught ball watching and while they gain a few turnovers they normally lose a few plays too – this is the type of player Josh Smith is. Another example is Allen Iverson. The special defenders are one’s who can do both types of off the ball defense like Ben Wallace. And the truly special defenders can do all three types like Scottie Pippen could. A man-to-man defender is far more valuable than a player who cheats defensively. As Josh keeps developing hopefully he’ll round out his understanding of how to play high level defense but as of right now he’s not as good a defender as Loul Deng who plays good man-to-man D and good team D but doesn’t create many turnovers.
On offense Josh Smith is completely unreliable. He can only play one-on-one basketball are finish off plays created by his teammates. He’s a weak passer. He is a mediocre dribbler. His penetrating skills are inconsistent, he’s clearly someone who doesn’t have a lot of belief or comfort in those skills.
Then you have Loul Deng. Deng might be the single best player in the NBA at moving off the ball. He creates space for his teammates every second he’s on the floor even if the ball is nowhere near him. He’s a constant threat that can play in any style of offense.
Loul also possesses one of the best midrange games in the NBA which is a fantastic skill.
Their post up games are very similar. Both make more mistakes than successes. Still works in progress but both have the capability to become dominant post players. I have more confidence in Lou doing this because of his style of play and understanding of the value of post play to his team.
Then you add the characters of the two men. Josh has been a questionable guy since he came into the league. He repeatedly shows acts of petulance and happily breaks his coaches wishes. He has an unusual work ethic too … at times in his young career he has been slammed for his effort in practices and his focus in building skills and at other times has been hailed for great off season accomplishments (rarely praised for work in season during training). He’s still a very immature guy who could go either way but there are some positive signs there too. Lou on the other hand gets better every off-season and every game.
Oh and you’re right Steve, Lou was hailed as the next coming. The chatter about him during and after the Miami series last year was huge … especially in the Chicago press. I’d also agree that the Bulls (Paxson) had that attitude during trade discussions but a trade was never going to get done anyway. LA and Chicago valued all of the Bulls players completely differently and were never going to be able to reach an agreement. So it didn’t really matter if they held him out for most of the negotiations and there are reports saying he was put on the table at later stages of the talks.
To conclude … Josh has miles to go. He has a huge amount of intrigue but the end product is nowhere close to Loul Deng at this point in time. I have more confidence in Lou reaching his potential than Josh also although Josh may have a higher ceiling … howeverI have to see some understanding of him playing as a teammate in fundamental ways before I give him the nod on that.
At this moment in time Lou is the better prospect going forward and a far superior player in the present.
Matt,
Fair enough. I should have been clearer perhaps in my commentary on Deng, because I looked to convey that this was not meant to tear him down in any way. I like Luol’s game a lot, and as I wrote about to IndeedProceed, he is probably still my choice here, for a myriad of reasons, as laid very well in some of the comments after ours. My goal was to highlight Smith’s very good work as of late and to bring up what I thought was an intriguing comparison between the two. It definitely wasn’t meant to come off as some measure of disrespect toward Deng. But yes, you’re right that it could (and perhaps should?) have been framed differently.
-sw
hscs,
Thanks for bringing up the adjusted /- stats. Given that the obvious comment for me to make about /- in general was that this is something also largely dependent on the level of one’s teammates as well, does adjusted /- have something to do with accounting for that? As you’re aware, I’m still largely in my infancy when it comes to dealing with certain advanced stats (although I’m learning little by little), so can you explain to me how adjusted /- is defined? Thanks.
As for the difficulty of the comparison, yes it’s a tough one. There are, however, some interesting parallels in both their physiques and their numbers, and it seemed to be a subject worth looking at.
It’s been a while, but always good to hear from ya.
-sw
Who,
As I’ve quickly learned is the norm with you, excellent analysis.
As I think has become evident already on this board, the biggest point that sticks out more than anything else remains the character issue. Luol by all accounts has been and continues to be a coach’s dream. He’s a great teammate and pleasant guy who plays hard every night. Combine that with his talent and youth, and it’s easy to see how he has merited the high expectations. Smith is a character question mark, but my hope is that at 22, he is en route to learning from his mistakes and becoming a better teammate and leader.
He has a long, long way to go — no questions here. But I wonder then, given his physique and the production that he has already accrued, whether or not he has a greater ceiling than Deng. Of course, we also know exactly how much ‘ceiling’ counts for and how much more ‘actualization of potential’ is worth. I certainly don’t know that Smith can or will ever reach said ceiling. But it certainly appears to be a high one, and I like his game and need to make sure I sit down to watch him with a bit more regularity. If nothing else, as you said, he is certainly intriguing.
Glad to see I wasn’t completely off the boat with regard to the raised expectations for Luol and his influence in the trade talks with the Lakers, although given Matt’s (bullsblogger) comments, there certainly appears to be more middle ground there than I originally gave credit for.
Your regular insights in this space since I came aboard have been much appreciated, Who. Looking forward to hearing more from you in the days to come.
-sw
http://82games.com/ilardi1.htm
That’s the adjusted /- article. The author explains it at the start.
I’m still not sure what to make of it. I need more convincing of it’s usefulness.
It’s interesting to look at though.
Who,
I think you are greatly exaggerating their differences. You make it sound like Deng is 2 to 3 levels above Smith. I agree with your points about Smith on defense, but at the same time, there’s no denying that 2 steals and 4 blocks a game, plus several altered/disrupted shots does add value to a team defense. I have seen Smith play very solid man-on-man defense. Yes, he certainly loses focus at times, but I think discipline will come in time.
I’ve also seen him create for himself offensively. His apparent game winner (who knew each team would make another basket with 4 seconds left) against Minnesota last week was all him. He got the ball up top, took his man down to the elbow, faked right, spun left, and banked in a beautiful jumper. I’ve seen him make other plays of equal creativity and ability, I’ve seem him make several very smart passes, and I’ve seen him move plenty without the ball. He has a pretty decent catch-and-shoot jumper coming off screens… much like Deng.
If I had to choose now, I would probably also take Deng. I think great man-to-man defense is incredibly underrated in this league and Deng has the clear advantage there. But to say you would take Deng without a thought and to put him so much higher than a guy that currently averages more points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks in a slightly larger role on what is right now a better team seems pretty off base to me.
Ah Big Ticket, we just disagree on Smith. I was the one who questioned your inclusion of Smith on your ballot in that thread if my memory serves. I just don’t think he’s anywhere near that level.
I do think Deng is 2/3 levels ahead of Smith.
Smith has the most talented teammate in Joe Johnson and perhaps the second most talented teammate in Al Horford but that’s something up for debate but he definitely has the most talented teammate (plus the very talented Marvin Williams). Yet his team doesn’t win … and a lot of that is to do with Josh Smith.
His ability to create turnovers and wreak havoc on defense is very valuable. And when he learns to make correct rotations, how to double team, how to show on screens, how to position himself off his defender before the play begins to make the penetrating guard question coming down the lane … then I’ll credit him with being a great off-the ball defender. Then when he becomes a stopper I’ll laud him as the best defensive player in the game. But he’s nowhere near that right now. He cheats on his man and the rest of his defensive game is awfully inconsistent.
Team’s that win championships do not do so with defenders of his ilk. Team D needs reliabilty to establish itself. It needs guys willing to sacrifice a gambles. Guys who will force hard shots rather than get a turnover/give up an open J. Josh isn’t there yet. Deng is there. Deng is a deserving all-defense candidate and Josh isn’t (although he likely will get the vote over Loul, the media pay way too much attention to steals and blocks).
And I absolutely concur that Josh can create for himself. That is what I said in my comment or at least attempted to (I’ll re-read it in a second). My point was that that is all he can do. He doesn’t function well within a team’s offense. He isn’t a good passer. He doesn’t set screens. His post game is still basic (like Loul). He doesn’t make good decisions with the ball. He’s only really comfortable catching the ball from 15-20 feet and driving at guys or shooting over them (although I have hoop on that lefty hook of his). It’s why he shoots such a low percentage. Whenever he wants to score he has to stop the ball moving and stop the offense moving. This limits the Atlanta offense – also read limits his teammates from being effective. He’s not the only one, unfortunetely they got a bunch of guys like this – this why their offense struggles. Loul functions a lot easier on the offensive end and allows his teammates the space, time and opportunity to do what they do best.
Loul is way ahead of Josh Smith. Smith’s an exciting talent but he isn’t fundamental enough and he doesn’t help his teammates be their most effective selves. That sets him back.
Haha the coincidence of coincidences … as soon as wrote that Josh Smith pulls down a monster rebound, doesn’t look for the point guard, tries to bring up the ball and ends up throwing the ball out of bounds. His third turnover in little over a quarter.
Dominque Wilkins just came on and said Josh needs to start looking for the point guard after he rebounds the ball. He said he was a little too excited. Not the first time he hasn’t passed to point off a rebound here. Josh has also been forcing his shots here in the early going. Commentators starting to be a little critical.
May just be a bad game but plays like these seem to happen too regularly during games with Josh.
Yep, Josh Smith threw up a clunker tonight.
He scored only 5 points, all in the first half. He was very passive after struggling in the first half. He went 2-11 with many early forced shots which were poor looks.
He had 7 of Atlanta’s 11 turnovers. Many unforced. Many mental lapses.
His team D was pretty weak. He tried to help out on TJ Ford. Showing on screens or when not on the screener he tried to close down some of the space in the lane. Repeatedly not in position and his positioning did nothing to impede TJ.
Fouled out in the end on a questionable call but he stunk. Ah well.
Part of his inconsistentcy and un-reliable game. Check back over the game logs and there is a lot of movement in his production.
Maybe it’s fate to end the debate? No? Little bit? Yeah? No, okay, no it wasn’t. Ah well.
Hahahaha…It figures that Smith would drop a dud tonight… round 1 goes to Who.
Not to go off topic, but I realized that I could essentially substitute Amare Stoudamire for Josh Smith and Kevin Garnett for Luol Deng in your lengthy posts above and it would basically equal my feelings on Amare’s game compared to KG’s.
But I still don’t think Deng is 2 or 3 levels above Smith… unless you have like 10 tiers of players.
Hmm Deng over Smith?….. I thought i was dreaming when I read this. The only two weaknesses that Josh Smith has when it comes to gametime: his shot and turnovers. I guess 3.5 avg blocks a game isn’t an impressive defensive number. And I guess teams don’t win championships based on the “ilk” of defenders like Ben Wallace (defensive player of the year 3.0 blocks / game). Ben was the biggest cheater/weak side helper if you ever watched a pistons game when he was on the team. I would know since I’ve been an avid Michigan resident and pistons fan for several years. Deng is comparative to Prince of the pistons, not even. Deng can’t shoot the three, but they do have one similarity which is pretty annoying in both people, and that is a lack of ferocity. Prince and Deng both put me to sleep, there is no zeal bursting out of that jersey or at least not any that I can see. Smith on the other hand, gets the juices flowing in not only his teammates but the audience watching. THAT is his strongpoint, elevating the morale of his teammates and getting the crowd involved. I don’t see that happening anytime with Deng.
Making teammates better…. Smith averages twice the amount of assists as Deng. He lifts the spirits of his teammates by making huge steals and blocks. How is that not making his teammates better. Given that he has a high turnover count, but that will subside with more experience and talent around him. Joe Johnson is the only proven talent on that team. Marvin Williams has been a bust and Al Horford is in his rookie year… I don’t consider that talent. Taking Deng’s situation, he has an actual point guard in Hinrich (who is having a bad season) and a former defensive player of the year and Ben Gordon… I don’t understand the comparisons made in earlier posts sometimes. In fact looking at the production, Deng has dropped off considerably from last year; must be the result of all the character and hard work.. whereas Smith has picked up the numbers in every category and not to mention the Hawks have won more games than the bulls.
And when it comes to character, we are not perfect people and anyone who has traversed through their 20’s know that it’s a learning experience. Noone has vast wisdom and maturity at that age except for maybe Buddha.
All this commenting doesn’t matter anyway because these are opinions and arguing opinions is like trying to achieve world peace. But it feels much better expressing my distraught with some of the comments made about a future All Star and one of the more exciting people to watch.
by ra1337 on Dec 13, 2007 4:54 AM EST reply actions
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