Daily Babble: Careful Now, Dwight

by Steve Weinman on Dec 11, 2007 11:45 AM EST in NBA Articles

In general, Dwight Howard is the man. He is the man in Orlando, and it has been my contention for some time now that he will be the man across the Association for a long time before all is said and done. That day appears to be coming even sooner than expected, as he has once again improved his game over the summer and come sprinting out of the gate for 23.0 points, 15.2 boards and 2.9 blocks per game in leading the Magic to an excellent 16-6 start.

So the disclaimer here is that given Howard's quick progress as he continues on in his fourth season in the league (watch his stat lines jump from year to year; it's really amazing), any complaint here is really pushing the envelope and is representative of a D-Ho fan getting greedy, because the problem will likely be fixed soon. This, however, is simply to note that the problem area for Dwight to next address has become abundantly clear: Holding on to the basketball.

Currently, Howard sits at sixth in the league in turnover average at 3.73 per game. Yao Ming (10th) is the only other big man in the top ten, with every other player listed being either a point guard (Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Jamaal Tinsley, perhaps AI is considered a point these days) or a prominent wing player who has the ball in his hands a lot in his team's offense (Dwyane Wade, Stephen Jackson, Andre Iguodala). For point guards who are involved in virtually every offensive play and wing players who make up an inordinate portion of their teams' offense, those numbers are at least more understandable. The same can't be said for Howard, especially when one considers that of the league's top ten in turnovers per game, only Jason Kidd has a lower usage rate (21.4). Not only is Howard turning the ball over with regularity, he is likely doing it with more frequency per touch than many others around the league.

Over the last six games, this problem has become particularly evident, with Howard going for turnover figures of 6, 8, 1, 9, 6 and 5 over that span. He is averaging 5.3 turnovers per in four December games. Unsurprisingly, the Magic now sit at 22nd in basketball with 15.2 turnovers per game, though they only force 13.9.

Certainly, this isn't a death blow. With Howard dominating inside on both ends of the floor, rebounding and blocking shots with abandon and becoming a leader, one can't be too bummed with his performance. But in order for him to take himself and likely his team to the next level, and in order to avoid teams really looking to pressure him with the ball in his hands late in games down the stretch, Dwight Howard will have to learn how to hang on to the basketball.

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

It’s just going to be time with Dwight, it will come as he grows as a player.

His turnover numbers are similar to last year but the truth is something else entirely.

He has been much more comfortable on the block with the ball in his hands … waiting on cutters, sizing up his man, watching where the double team is coming from and then deciding the option to take. It’s light and day.

His coaches have been raving about his growth in decision making with the ball in his hands down low.

He is actually making an effort to read the game offensively and understand how to avoid those turnovers … and it has allowed the Magic to have a lot more movement off the ball because Dwight is more reliable to make the correct choice.

Just time ….

by Who on Dec 11, 2007 2:39 PM EST reply actions

Who,

Wholly agreed about Dwight and the time issue.

Since I highlighted the one real problem with his game at this point, feel free to check out the link in the first line of this piece; it goes back to a column I wrote some time ago at Taking it to the Rack where I anointed Howard as my first choice if I could build a franchise around any player in the league starting right now. As I discussed above, any real complaint about his turnover numbers on my part now is really just greed to see him progress even more quickly than the absurd rate at which he already is. He is having a tremendous impact in virtually every area of the game, and his numbers — and more importantly, his team’s record — show it. But given that almost everything you ever hear me say about him from here on out in the column will be unadulterated positivity, it seemed the time to point out that if there is any complaint, it is that those TO numbers are a tad higher than perhaps they should be.

Thanks as always for writing in.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Dec 11, 2007 3:53 PM EST reply actions

Oh yeah, I knew you were just looking for the one smallish hole in his game and pointing out his direction for reaching the next level (complete dominance of the league? pretty close anyway).

I questioned him a lot in the past year (after all it was 3 years in) for his lack of fluidity in the post and for his turnovers.

He has amazed me with his progress in each area. I just wanted to point out the development despite the similar numbers. He’s right on track for fixing the problem. I think the turnover numbers right now aren’t telling the full story. He’s made huge strides on his turnovers.

by Who on Dec 11, 2007 5:03 PM EST reply actions

Fair enough. And yes, I would say that the next level — at least for him personally — is becoming the league’s most dominant big man. It’s my contention that his two biggest long-term challengers (think once KG, TD and Shaq — who in particular is already edging his way over the hill — have packed it in for good) are Yao and a particular individual who looks like he is enough to have filed for social security but has never played an NBA game yet. For now, I can’t make Amare Stoudemire a serious part of the discussion there because of his well-documented ineffectiveness on the defensive end — easily my primary concern for a big man. The scoring is just gravy. This could be Dwight’s league for a long time to come.

Your thoughts on that?

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Dec 11, 2007 5:15 PM EST reply actions

I’m one of the biggest Yao critics around so he’s not even the discussion on my end. It’s his defense I have a problem with, he’s slower than a lamp-post. Move the player he’s guarding away from the hoop and Houston’s D has a huge hole right through the middle and Yao is a victim waiting to happen. It’s too easy. Every team he ever plays in the playoffs will figure that out. Utah did it to him last year with Boozer.

I’d rule out Amare too. He’s looked marginalized in Phoenix. They’ve really reduced the types of shots he gets to Nash set ups, mid range jumper and finishes around the rim. I think that’s going to slow down his development in a big way. He’s not getting enough experience on the post, with double teams or developing the other parts of his game. He’s not going to have Nash forever so his lack of development offensively will catch up to him. Completely agree with the lack of defense, I’d add lack of work on the boards too.

It’s TD’s throne until he walks off the stage. He’s just smarter than every other big man in the league. Even has his athleticism continues to go he’ll find a way to win. Just a big play here and there that turn a game. He has a long way to go still.

Once he goes …. Howard is the furthest ahead. Oden is the next best challenger. But that’s a minimum of 5 years time and a lot will change and new players will enter the league.

I absolutely love Oden’s game.

He’s just a special player. His skill on the defensive end is incredible. He might have the quickest vertical in the league too. He already has that knowledge of how to help his teammates and how to do the little things that win big games. Some have questioned it … but I think he has that disposition to just dominate other players.

It’s going to be incredible seeing him in the NBA. He and LaMarcus Aldridge are just going to wreak havoc. Too long, too big … too good. Add Brandon Roy and a 20m warchest as Oden’s rookie season ends … I think Oden and Portland will be the League’s best team for a long time.

by Who on Dec 11, 2007 6:01 PM EST reply actions

Who,

Amen to just about all of that. I bring Yao up because his size outstrips that of everyone else, because of his touch offensively and because he certainly provides more of a defensive presence than someone like Amare does. However, the series against Utah last season would be a perfect testament to your commentary on his defense, as Booze had his way with the Rockets thanks to his athleticism and quickness, and Yao looked useless even as a help-side defender (when he wasn’t taking Boozer) in that series. His lack of lateral quickness is a killer.

I’m as big a Duncan fan as you’ll find. No arguments here…although, much as I don’t want to get ahead of myself, I’m sincerely hoping that a certain one of his contemporaries gets the best of him if they meet in June this season. But that’s a long ways off.

I’ll take Howard far and away beyond everyone else as far as looking toward the future is concerned for the bigs. While Oden appears to be the top competition, it’s still hard to put that much stock in a man who has yet to play an NBA game. I’m in agreement that he will be a big, big deal and that the frontcourt tandem of him and the ever-lengthy Aldridge will be an absurdly dangerous one. I love the future for that team. As of right now, Oden’s stability and durability have already been established as concerns, and we will have to see how sharp his NBA learning curve turns out to be.

Right now, Howard’s my man…until I remember that it will be his Orlando teams that we’ll have to get through every year in the East…

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Dec 11, 2007 6:16 PM EST reply actions

I also think there will be a lot more quality at centre coming through over the next 5 years. I think the rule change stopping HS players entering will help bigs the most especially post scoring.

We’ve seen the beginnings of it already with 3 centres in the top 10 last year and a couple of other good prospects staying out of the draft.

Roy Hibbert and Koufos are two guys getting ready now.

I watched Koufos over at the U-18 world champs this summer. He’s a talent. He blew everyone out of the water and put up numbers which appearantly just aren’t put up. He’s replaced Oden at Ohio State. I haven’t seen him there yet but I’ve read he’s doing well and developing nicely.

Roy Hibbert is unlikely to be an all-NBA type centre but he looks very good. I think he’ll be a much better pro than college player. That Princeton offense in Georgetown has really developed his comfort zone on the low post, mid post and high post. It’s also improved his ability to read the game and his passing. When he’s been with the US youth squads he has shown much more on the low post than with Georgetown. Good defensive player. I think he can be a steal.

Add the other kid who’s getting lots of scouts now – John Riek. And a couple of other 7 footers in college like Devon Hardin, Lopez bros., Thabeet and the kid out in Serbia who I haven’t seen yet – Perkovic.

So I think we’ll see a lot more big men and TD has a long time to run yet so it may look very different by then. Howard is the frontrunner though … that also means every young centre will be gunning for him.

by Who on Dec 11, 2007 6:16 PM EST reply actions