Losing Patience With the Rockets

by Steve Weinman on Dec 23, 2007 11:01 PM EST in NBA Articles

With every passing day, it becomes harder and harder to take the Houston Rockets seriously as a Western Conference contender.

This is the team that was considered by the pundits and the masses (self included to some extent) as a very legitimate threat to the existing hierarchy in the Western Conference. The Rockets were coming off an excellent regular season and were expected to turn the corner with the help of Rick Adelman and his high-octane offense and a healthy pair of stars. Not only hasn't this happened, but there doesn't appear to be a quick solution on the horizon.

At the outset of the season, one could preach patience with the Rockets as they adjusted to a new offensive system. That plea was even more justified by the fact that the new system certainly appeared to be helping the team's two stars, who both got off to torrid individual starts. The natural presumption was that with time, the supporting cast would follow suit.

Sadly, the opposite has been the case.

The supporting cast got off to a putrid start early in the season, and not much has changed. No one outside of Yao and Tracy McGrady is averaging in double-figure scoring, and the shooting percentages are atrocious across the board. With the exceptions of Chuck Hayes (.543) and Luis Scola (.497), the rest of the non-studs are having all sorts of trouble. Rafer Alston is below 40 percent from the field and below 30 from deep. Shane Battier is barely sitting above 40 percent from the field. Mike James and Steve Francis (in his limited action) are both shooting inside of 36 percent. Luther Head and Bonzi Wells (both sub-44) are on the high end for this bunch. It is the job of those on this supporting cast simply to make shots. They aren't doing it. Not shockingly, the Rockets as a team are just 26th in field goal shooting at 43.7 percent and 26th in three-point shooting at 33 percent. Not encouraging statistics.

Further, while Yao's production has remained rather constant, McGrady has only fallen back toward Earth over the past month. After going for 24.6 points, 5.4 boards and 5.6 assists per game in November, T-Mac has gone for just 19.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game this month. McGrady has battled several injuries and has already missed three games, and both he and Yao left Sunday's game against Detroit with injuries. Not encouraging on a number of fronts. For all of Adelman's new offensive tricks, the team is currently sitting at 20th in the league in offensive efficiency after 28 games. Further, though McGrady and Yao have only missed four games combined due to injury thus far, the myriad of injuries to McGrady and the fact that both players are already banged up barely a third of the way into the season have to be disconcerting.

Two other concerns beyond that, and then we're out of here: The first is that there isn't an immediate solution on the horizon. There isn't necessarily one impact player on the market for this team to acquire who will change everything offensively. Furthermore, the pieces the Rockets have to offer (Battier? Hayes? Head?) aren't all that impressive in the first place. With what should be lots of low draft picks for the years to come, they don't have much to offer in that department either.

Finally, the old fallback that the regular season doesn't mean anything and that just getting to the playoffs will be enough to provide a shot at true contention won't work for this team. Not without having proved itself in the playoffs and not in the Western Conference. After last year's implosion against the Jazz, whether the Rockets have it in them to beat one elite Western Conference team remains unknown. To beat three seems wholly out of the question. If they end up fighting their way into the playoffs with a low seed, that is exactly what they will have to do. More likely than not, they will have to face some combination of San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas and Utah in each of the three rounds in the West bracket. There is no evidence to date that would show that the Rockets have the ability to pass that type of challenge.

So the moratorium on championship talk should be officially on in Houston. If it isn't already, that is.

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Comments

It’s kind of surprising. It seems they’ve gotten worse both offensively AND defensively, not a good sign. They can still turn that ship around though as they did get off to a strong start in November.

by orrzor on Dec 24, 2007 1:24 PM EST reply actions

I think Adelman made a mistake keeping that starting unit together

They fall back on JVG’s offense and run that when plays start breaking down.

It’s made the transition harder.

by Who on Dec 25, 2007 5:08 AM EST reply actions

I think Rafer Alston’s poor play as hurt the Rockets the most.

He was doing fantastically during pre-season but dropped off the minute the season started. His pass first attitude and ability to create plays for himself or others is very important to this Rockets ball club.

The Rockets have no other guard like Rafer. Stevie is a scorer through and through and Mike James isn’t a penetrator or pass first character. Rockets need a point like Rafer to help balance the floor.

Unfortunately his play hasn’t been anywhere close to expectations or past performances

by Who on Dec 25, 2007 6:08 AM EST reply actions

Another problem for this ball club is a long standing one and it is two fold, the problem’s name is Yao Ming:

(1) The defense. He’s a horrific defender if you can drag him outside of 10 feet because he doesn’t have the mobility and the Rockets can’t protect the rim or the boards if he’s not there.

(2) Yao for all his virtues of being a solid passer and being unselfish …. he’s bloody difficult to play. Power forwards have always struggled next to Yao.

He is so big that when you put another big body next to him there is hardly any room to move around the court. Why is tthis important? Adelman’s offense is based on passing and movement in the frontcourt. Putting another big body big man in there kills the Rockets half court offense, making them overly predicatable and easy to stifle. It also has the carry on effect on defense – since the Rockets can’t keep another shot blocker on the court.

I know a lot of people won’t agree with me on this but I think Luis Scola has actually played well. He has been terrific on the boards and a verifiable low post threat when Yao is off the court. He’s also been great for keeping the ball moving and making superb passes in traffic for easy baskets. He also has a nice touch out to about 16 feet and has range to 20 feet with a drop off. But again …. he can’t play with Yao. The tandem hasn’t worked at all well for the Rockets. There isn’t enough space for movement and it makes both Yao and Scola to easy to double team or trap so they can’t get their offense either.

The Rockets have tried the big lumbering type (Kelvin Cato), the uber-athletic type (Stromile Swift, Eddie Griffin), the shooter (Padgett, Novak, Ryan Bowen, Lampe, Nachbar, James Posey), the prototype big forward (Scola, Juwan Howard, Mo Taylor, Vin Baker, Charles Oakley), the undersized forward (Chuck Hayes, Weatherspoon, Kenny Thomas) ….. and none of them have worked out.

The undersized four has helped spacing the most and Chuck Hayes has easily been the most succesful of the group. His board work and defense covers some gaps but leaves the rim vulnerable on defense and he isn’t an effective offensive player.

There is still some hope for a shooter from PF since the cast was pretty weak but none came close to being a good option for more than the odd five minute spell here and there. It was so bad that JVG and Dawson completely went away from it and looked elsewhere – again defense and rebounding concerns were primary. It would be nice to see what an Al Harrington type could do here … but it’s no certainty to work out.

Scola and Howard have both been forced into being over-sacrificial to even make an attempt at working this combination and neither has really succeeding despite some good times.

Stromile Swift and Eddie Griffin were complete failures … Griffin was a nice shooter to go with his huge shot blocking and rebounding talents. Not a good sign that he couldn’t play with Yao. Other influences definitely hurt Eddie but to stop the combination from working? I’m not sure I’d go that far. I just don’t think they worked well together. Both were young though (Yao a rook and Eddie was Eddie).

Yao is incredibly difficult player to play with and it’s causing the team a whole word full of problems.

by Who on Dec 25, 2007 6:28 AM EST reply actions

Shane Battier isn’t living up to his end of the deal either.

I can’t work out why this guy doesn’t shoot more often. He has a nice touch, has a very good post game for a wing, is an effective penetrator and a good finisher in traffic. Good at the line and has great range.

But he’s so insanely passive. He’s killing the Rockets by not looking for his offense. He’s an easy 15ppg night player like he was in Memphis. He doesn’t need a lot of touches or opportunities to do that.

Unleashing his offensive talents would free up the rest of the team no end.

by Who on Dec 25, 2007 6:30 AM EST reply actions

Outside of all of this ….. you got to wonder if Adelman’s system is effective anymore.

Watching his team play this year versus his teams of the past … I fully agree with him that the referees are allowing more contact than ever on the elbow and high post.

Would I go as far as to agree there is more contact allowed on the high post than the low post? Not quite but it’s an actual discussion. I’m not dismissing it out of hand. I’ve seen lots of Rockets games were Chuck Hayes is being beaten around out there while Yao has a much easier time down low.

Can his system still work with these changes of what the referees will allow?

Lawrence Frank, Byron Scott and Eddie Jordan have all been huge supporters of a Princeton like offense in the past and all three have cut back the sets they use.

I don’t know the answer to the question but doubts aplenty

by Who on Dec 25, 2007 6:34 AM EST reply actions