Stein: Pau for Big Al Unlikely

Good to hear. Hang tight, Danny. Patience, patience, patience…

what is the future first round pick? if it is top 5 of course we probably don’t want to trade it, but it’s time to stop saying giving up jefferson is too much. Gasol is far superior to him right now, and probably will continue to be for the next five years. those of you who knock gasol simply haven’t seen him play enough – he’s exceptional, a top 15 talent in the league, i doubt al will ever get there.

I say pass on Gasol. We are worse than we thought we’d be. Playing time for the young guys hasn’t meant much. Losing 3-4 or 4-5 is losing and growing. Lose 17 in a row and there is no growth evident. Danny’s trading record hasn’t been good. His draft record is a little overrated. Marcus Williams looked pretty good last night. Telfair…I applauded the move back then but he can’t get on the court ON THIS TEAM!!! Yikes. Danny, whoever conceived the Telfair deal needs to be not listened to anymore. Lose out and let’s get a 1-4 pick (Hopefully 1-2). Then maybe trade for a vet leader. These games are brutal to watch. BRUTAL We don’t even play that hard. Please, play Leon Powe and let’s at least see some butt-kicking effort.

I thought the rationale for keeping Rivers was that at least the team was playing hard for him. Well, they aren’t playing hard any more.

And the young players aren’t developing. Jefferson’s development has more to do with Clifford Ray and healthy ankles than it does with Rivers.

But I’m not in favor of firing Rivers before the 25th consecutive loss. Hey, that’s only 8 more games, 6 of which are on the road. I think it’s fitting that the Celtics will set a new NBA record for futility against the Knicks on February 28th, with Isiah Thomas high-fiving his guys as they run up a 25 point lead in the 4th quarter.

I think Danny will make a play for his second veteran star on draft night.

Our pick this year is potentially worth more than Gasol, as is the fact that we may keep Memphis at that 20% mark instead of 25. Don’t try to outtank us, Jerry. We’ve got a secret weapon and his name rhymes with “Croc Livers.”

What is more difficult to get in the NBA: A max salaried big who scores 19 a night with 8 rebounds, or a rookie scale big who is a double double machine, with devastating post moves, and one of the highest rebounding rates, and offensive rebounding numbers in the league?

One of the most encouraging things about the development of Al Jefferson is that, despite playing on a CYO squad of mistake prone dunderheads, and toughing the ball in the post 40-50 possession, he only averages 2 turnovers a game. Gasol has averaged 2.6 TOs a game for his career, and 3 a game this season. For comparison, Dwight Howard averages 3.6 TOs a game.

If the Cs get the number one pick and take Oden, I would support a Gasol/AL trade, figuring that Oden can patrol the low block, and Gasol can play out on the floor better than the post oriented AL. If not, I say stick with AL.

Memphis needs a point guard. Its no sweat off our back if Gasol goes to Chicago. They would be crazy to give up Deng, Gordon, or Heinrich. I think Rondo has better potential than Duhon. Big Al should stay in a Celtics uniform.

Its a shame we’re not going after Gasol. Al a future pick is a good trade for Pierce & the Celtics.

But then again, Ainge said he wasnt going to trade Antoine….so look out ;)

Heinrich may be the most overrated player in the NBA. Its a joke that he was on the USA team…but then again, its a joke that coach Krapskwkeshki was coaching the team.

Neither Al nor Gasol plays decent defense. One plus on Gasol is that he commits fewer turnovers than Al.

Let’s hope we can land Oden or Noah in the draft for defense.

Is there a scenario where we could get Gasol without giving up PP or AJ?…any scenario at all?…I’m willing to include a protected pick…

I pretty much agree that that is too much to pay for Gasol, especially at this point in time, especially with the pressure Memphis is under to trade him. Nobody else seems in a rush to throw players at Memphis.

I do think Al should be untouchable. To the experience he’s had and development he’s shown under very difficult circumstances this season, he will build added strength in the off-season. He seems to have the character qualities and instincts you like to see at a very young age. You have to see what kind of player you have in him next year.
Al is way younger (close to 5 years) than Gasol even though Gasol is young. Gasol is what he is. You cannot say that about Jefferson. All aspects of his game on both offense and defense should improve significantly. And he will be a fair bit cheaper than Gasol for a while, leaving more money to address other needs.

And our draft pick could be higher than it’s been in a long time. Before you consider trading the pick, see what it turns out to be in what is likely to be a very high quality draft. It would be insane to offer an unprotected first round pick for anyone this year. Off season is certainly a better time for a trade. Wake up people and get a little perspective.

There may be a way to get Gasol in the off-season if he is there if the price doesn’t include Jefferson. And I would not trade Oden or Durant for him. I am hopeful and fairly confident Ainge sees it this way.

“Neither Al nor Gasol plays decent defense. One plus on Gasol is that he commits fewer turnovers than Al.”

Im pretty sure Gasol has been turning the ball over much more than Al. Not to mention Al is probably an above average defender. That pretty much kills your entire argument.

Noah shouldnt even be mentioned in the same breath as Oden in regards to defense.

Forget Pau. And don’t count on Oden OR Durant. If you want a sobering look at the lottey, just go to this page, http://www.realgm.com/src_lottosim.php, and run the simulation a few times — the Celtics are out of the top 2 picks more often than you think.

The only way we have a good shot for Durant or Oden is to get the Grizzlies’ pick (or Philly’s, Charlotte’s). How about trading PP for Memphis’ first round pick? Pierce is a great, but aging player. Anything can happen, but I think Durant will be one of the best ever. I’d even throw Jefferson in to make it happen (by far the most overrated player on the Celtics — West is #2). He’s a good player, but he’ll never be a great player. Heck, I’d even throw GG in to make it happen (his upside is overrated — he can shoot, but can’t dribble, defend, or pass). The risk to this plan is that Oden or Durant decide to stay in school, or the ghost of Rick Pitino haunts us again and we still get locked out of the top two (which is possible even with the Griz pick). But maybe Red will nudge the balls a bit, and we’ll land Oden AND Durant; hope springs eternal. Our luck has been horrible forever, it has to change sometime. We need another pick, a little luck, a new GM and a solid coach.

And, you know what? The Celtics have been bad for so long… What have we got to lose? I say package whatever is necessary to land that pick.

GreenKite71, You must be losing your mind, and don’t ever suggest that I go to RealGM for a simulator…I must have rolled the ping pong balls seven times before I came up Celtics #1…Hah!…Even Seattle beat us twice and they’ve won 117 games…
“O run slowly, slowly, horses of the night…”

I’m def. getting a feeling that many fans do not care how many losses we get as long as we get the #1. Some of this is understandable but if we don’t land the 1-2 pick in the draft are people willing to go through another similar year with Ainge & Co.(“All-star potential youth that can’t win 1-17??)The drop in talent from 1-2 to say Joahkim Noah is franchise breaking. Durant and Oden are the only reasons why the draft class is special(and no, being able to get Glen Davis at #18 doesn’t make this draft deep.) I’m not even sure at this point that i will even trust Ainge with future trades anymore based on his track record of making a move and then making another move to correct his initial one, which ultimately has broughten us to 12 wins(sorry this is a fact). No more "Moneyball” type free agent signings or trades i.e.(dickau, scala, jiri welsch)its not baseball. It almost seems as if it doesn’t take much to convince ainge of a players potential and then for him to go to extreme lengths to be stubbourn about issues(Scals 5 years 15mill, taking on Raef for more years than toine). Ainge has until the end of the summer to do SOMETHING positive to change the current look of this franchise. If not, my patient 4 year wait for him will be up and done and my Green Kool-Aid bowl will be empty….I’m already on the last few sips.

I still can’t get over the fact that 4 years later we have 12 wins with 33 games left….Its Oden or Durant, or that 3 year plan will turn into 10 with probably none of our young players even still being on the team.

I don’t expect to get Oden or Durant. I expect to pick 3rd and get Noah. A franchise that David Stern favors will get Oden, such as the Nets if they don’t make the playoffs.

But losses are the best way to get rid of Rivers. A new coach is just as important as anyone the Celtics could draft. And it has to be the right coach, not another loser.

i don’t recall who the total a$$hole stalker guy was who was on my for weeks last fall and early season about my hatred for Telfair was but I have to say this is the worst real world out come ever. Bassy punk po is so bad we won’ty even be able to trade the scumbag punk. And for thios DA has to be inquestion and indeed I think many of us are worried as hell about it. How could DA not have known? Honestly Doc figured out Bassy was a pos as fast as Nate McMillan did so I am not as prone to blame this on Doc

Anyone of those big guys coming out next year would dramatically improve this team. A) no double and triple teams on Big Al, B) No opposing defenses clogging up the middel opening up inside and outside games, C) Hence, point gurads like Rondo will find it easier to penetrate, D) Defensively, the Celtics will have a shot blocker for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century. So, if the celtics play this right it might be a turn aroung like when we first got Bird in “81”

I tried RealGM and it came up celtioc #1 quite a bit. In any event we can do no worse than#4. In this draft and Noah or Wright will do for me if both Oden and Durant are off the board. On the other hand If we got #1 we could then use it for Gasol by swappin picks with them and leting them choose Walley or Ratliff and then choose any one other than Jefferson Rondo pierce and green. This would be done only if Memphis is at four or higher.

Brandon Wright? Please, Id rather pick Aaron Gray.

In all seriousness, hes a very talented player who should be a good player for a team someday. But I dont him helping this team to improve, esepcially with Big Al around.

Id take Noah like Al, he really isnt a true center. Still should make for a very good player some day.

I have no idea how this simulator works, but just for kicks I rant it 50 times. Here are the picks I ended up with:

4th pick = 25 times
3rd pick = 8 times
2nd pick = 8 times
1st pick = 9 times

Makes no sense to me, but this is how the numbers came up.

Just using your sample, we would have a 50% chance of getting a top 3 pick (a 33% chance that it’s a top 2 pick) and and there’s a 50% percent chance Celts to #4.

The odds based on what I have seen indicates that the worst team has a 65% chance for a top 3 pick (a 46% chance that it’s a top 2 pick) and a 35% chance for the #4 pick. Next to worst has a 56% chance of getting a top 3 pick (a 38% chance that it’s a top 2 pick) and and there’s a 44% percent chance Celts to #4 or #5. Even with the 3rd or 4th worst records the team still has a 43% or 44% chance for a top 3 pick (28% for for a top 2). All of the worst 4 teams (even 5) have good chances at #’s 1 or 2. None are a sure thing.

I have to say it, though: the first time I visited the simulator page, the Celtics had pick #1. I think it’s a sign from Red. ;)

But I do think it’s quite sobering: many here think that if we keep losing the way we are, we’re a lock for either Durant or Oden. And it’s just not true. If we’re going to play that game, we have to go all the way and get another lottery pick from a bad team. Even then, it’s still not a lock — if you don’t believe me, run the simulator 20 times or so and see how many times Memphis AND Boston are out of the top 2 picks. Scary.

BoundingRebounder said:

GreenKite71, You must be losing your mind, and don’t ever suggest that I go to RealGM for a simulator…I must have rolled the ping pong balls seven times before I came up Celtics #1…Hah!…Even Seattle beat us twice and they’ve won 117 games…

Unfortunately, that’s how the lottery works. Even if we have the worst record, #1 is ours only 25% of the time. A sample size of 7 isn’t enough. I ran it 10 times more and the Celts were #1 3 times. Add our results together, and you have 4/17 — just under 25. Run it 100 times and it will be even closer to 25. It’s like flipping a coin — if you flip it 4 times and it comes up heads 3 times, does that mean the chance of heads is 75? We all know it is 50. So you keep flipping. The more times you flip, the closer you’ll get to the “true” (theoretical) value.

do not make the trade

Geez is everybody finally waking up to the fact that all this losing may not get us Oden or Durant? We’re losing just for the chance at them. But this is what everyone wanted when the Gasol rumors were floated. Someone said hope is not a gameplan. By the way, Noah will be a very good player for this team if we end up with him. He’s a winner pure and simple. His game helps this team where it needs it most. It’s not all about points! Corey Brewer is going to be a good pro too.

I agree with you mroden. Gasol is one of the top 15 players in the league. He’s an all-star. Jefferson will probably never will. And Gasol is only 26. I would trade anyone, except Paul Pierce, for Gasol. Put Gasol and Pierce together would be awesome. Make the trade Ainge!!!

I dont think theres a more perfect complement for Big Al than Noah. I would be ecstatic if the Celts ended up with him after all this.

I’m not so sure about Noah or Horford after watching them both play last night against Kentucky. Neither one looked that good. I liked Noah’s defense and passing, but his offense reminded me of Kendrick Perkins. As for Horford, he sort of daydreamed through the game. Both were in foul trouble.

Noah had an awful offensive game, but he can put the ball in the basket! He has a very good midranged jumper for a guy his size, a pretty good post game, and can handle and move the exceptionally well for his size. And he is a great great passing big.

Well you wouldn’t have known Noah has an offensive game after watching him last night. He also made dumb mistakes like biting on an upfake to pick up his 4th foul. The real prize for the Celtics on that Florida team would be Billy Donovan.

IMHO, Tiago Splitter is head and shoulders above Noah as an all-around basketball player.

Noah concerns me a bit. When I see him play, he reminds me of a more aggressive Jared Jeffries and I’m really not sure how that’s going to translate into the NBA.

As far as the C’s losing is concerned, I’m one of those that thinks they don’t really have a choice in losing all these games. They’re just not very good, so as I realize its far from a slam dunk that they’ll and a top 1-2 pick, I don’t think they have a choice in the matter. Its not like they can decide today that they’re going to just turn it around and be a good team. Since none of us can do anything about them losing, I’m just going to hope that they’ll get lucky in the lottery because really there aren’t any other alternatives right now.

There are alternatives, such as replacing the coach, but Ainge and Grousbeck seem committed to the losing.

Brick you can replace Doc with Phil Jackson, a young Red Auerbach, Pat Riley or whomever you want and this team is still at best a 30 win team this year, so if they fall short of that and only win 20 games and get a high pick, I’m OK with that. This team needs much more than a coaching change to be competitive

The coaching change is necessary, but not sufficient, to make them competitive. That should be the first step. The second step is somehow ditching Wally. The third step is finding a 6-8 guy who can defend the three or the four.

Steps 2 and 3 won’t be that easy. I doubt there’s much of a market for Wally and every team needs big guys that can defend. Getting lucky in the draft is the Celts best hope right now.

Ditching Wally is easy, so long as you are not committed to get anything for him. Yes, step 3 will be hard.

I disagree about ditching Wally, he’s got 2 more years and $25 million left on his contract. Nobody is going to lining up to take on that contract, unless of course the C’s are willing to take back some other teams bad contract back in return, in which case they could certainly move him it will just be for some other teams collection of over paid players.

Just waive Wally and eat the money. Let him go play where he wants.

too bad its not our money

The money is already wasted. Why pretend oherwise? At least if Wally signs elsewhere for more than the minimum there’s some mitigation.

Its a lot of money to just eat, which frankly if they do it I don’t really care because its not my checkbook. I just don’t see that as an option the Celtics are likely to pursue. They’re not the Knicks.

They’ve already eaten the money. The team is probalby better off paying Wally NOT to play.

Brick,
Have you seen Splitter play regularly? I have not so I can’t comment on him vs. Noah. Noah can be mentioned in the same breath as Oden defensively right now. Watched Oden the other day and the commentators were mentioning the work he will need to do on his footwork regarding pick and rolls, etc. I’m sure he’ll do that in time and be a complete monster but right now he basically plays straight up zone defense in the middle and doesn’t wander much from the middle. Noah is very mobile and active. He wasn’t at his best last night for sure but he is quick. Brewer may be the guy you’re looking for to guard threes Brick.