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Mannix: State of the Celtics

Chris Mannix gives a pretty thorough analysis of the Celtics state of affairs. I give him a lot of credit for getting through the entire article without mentioning Oden or Durant once. (Even I can't seem to do that.)

I agree with most of what he says and in the few areas where my opinion differs from him, I can only shug and say "I see what he's talking about though." I don't want to trade Green, but I think I would for Gasol. I don't want to blame Ainge, but I don't see how he can come out of this without blemish. We could do a lot worse than bringing in Paul Silas as a coach next year.

On the other hand, I wish he would take it a step further.  Don't just say "go for Gasol."  Offer up a package that both teams might be interested in.  If Ainge doesn't have a good plan, offer a better one.  For all the grief we gave Chad Ford with his "plan to fix the Celtics" type articles, at least he gave it a shot.

Maybe I'll try something like that, then you guys can spend the next 3 days making fun of me and questioning my sanity.  Won't that be fun? Never mind, I still think the best move is to make no move at all this deadline and deal from a position of strength (relatively speaking) this offseason.

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Gerald Green is not nearly as special a player as Gasol. It’s not even close. I hope you didn’t really have to debate this potential trade in your mind for very long Jeff. Trading Jefferson could be considered a mistake, just because of his age and potential combined with the fact that low post scorers of his caliber are an extremely rare commodity. But the Gerald Green’s of the world are dime-a-dozen type players. If we could have had Gasol for some combination of Green, Ratliff and Gomes, I’m sure he’d be in green already. But there’s no way Jerry West is that dumb.

by MetroGlobe on Feb 13, 2007 6:44 PM EST reply actions  

note: I was referencing your statement that you “THINK you would trade Green for Gasol”. How is this even a debate? It’s not really.

by MetroGlobe on Feb 13, 2007 6:45 PM EST reply actions  

it is a debate in my head, maybe thats my problem, too many voices in there :P

by Jeff Clark on Feb 13, 2007 6:49 PM EST reply actions  

Is it really? I think many people underrate El Spaniard. He’s really, really good. And consistently so. He’s no fluke. Not by any stretch. If we weren’t in the running for Oden or Durant, I think the fanbase (and media pundits alike) would be screaming at Ainge to trade for him. That’s the only reasonable explanation why it hasn’t happened yet – too much uncertainty about that lottery.

Now here’s an interesting dilema: let’s say that we don’t get the 1st or 2nd pick. . .do we draft Brandon Wright or Joakim Noah and be happy? Or do we try to get Gasol again? That’s a real pickle of a situation in my mind.

by MetroGlobe on Feb 13, 2007 6:56 PM EST reply actions  

Whens the last time ESPN, and in particular, Chad Ford has written a “How to fix the Celtics” article.

by cos on Feb 13, 2007 6:58 PM EST reply actions  

Nice article, but I am one of those who does not see any great value in Gasol. Slow, lumbering, huge turning circle, he is not making his team better and he has serious health issues with that ankle.

As painful as it is right now, I am still for staying the course with PP, GG, Big Al, RR, DW, TA, KP, RG and LP.

The rest I can let go but they obviously do not bring much back.

I still would like to see a line up of Perk, Big Al, Paul, Gerald and Rajon. To me that is a very athletic five with a good blend of offensive and defensive skills.

Add a first or second pick and we have something pretty special for years to come.

I need a win right now / tomorrow, but I do not want to blow up the potential future I see for a band-aid fix that really does not improve our Championship capabilities long term.

I may be stark raving mad and simply have one green eye and one white eye, but despite the 18 losses in a row, I still see hope at the end of this torture.

That’s me.
 
Cheers

Aussie

 :)

by Aussie Celtic on Feb 13, 2007 7:03 PM EST reply actions  

I don’t agree that Tony is a 2nd or even 3rd guy off the bench. I think Tony is a starter and great compliment to Pierce (when healthy).

Since when is 41% shooting considered deadly?

by Bankshot on Feb 13, 2007 7:07 PM EST reply actions  

Overall the article was fairly accurate. I do have the question the possibility of Jerry West working for the Celtics though, I can’t see that happening.

A question for the board ……do you guys think that Celtic officials read the blog on a regular basis ?

by DAS on Feb 13, 2007 7:19 PM EST reply actions  

the remains of Theo may be valuable yet

by Jeff Clark on Feb 13, 2007 7:40 PM EST reply actions  

Ainge hasn’t necearrily done a HORRIBLE job as a GM. We suck, yes, but we have a lot of young talent. I think the problem is that it’s taken him so long. We expected a winning team in 3-5 years. In the end, it might take 5-7 years, like the article said. But we are still on our way to becoming good. It simply took longer than it should have.

I would do Green/Telfair/Ratliff/2008 #1 pick for Gasol and Atkins.

Or, next season, do Green/Ratliff/Telfair/2008 #1 for Raja Bell and Kurt Thomas. I say next season because I don’t think Phoenix will mess with their roster this year.

by celtfan 3.0 on Feb 13, 2007 7:47 PM EST reply actions  

Just finished reading the article…Really, did he saying anything most of us didnt know already? That was a 8th grade outline desperately
needing someone to flesh it out.

by cos on Feb 13, 2007 7:47 PM EST reply actions  

Paul Silas would be GREAT!!!!!!!!!!!!

by celticswillwin43 on Feb 13, 2007 7:48 PM EST reply actions  

Wyc needs to open up his pink purse and buy a great coach and another great player..

by TomHamilton30 on Feb 13, 2007 7:49 PM EST reply actions  

I totally agree with MetroGlobe. GG for Gasol is a no brainer. JWest won’t do it thou. GG’s value has dropped too much.

The thing that I don’t understand is why Chicago don’t have Gasol already. It’s such a no-brainer…

by cocofan on Feb 13, 2007 8:02 PM EST reply actions  

Danny better cash-in fast. Before someone steps in (after drafting Oden), trade some of the young talent, and get all the credit for rebuilding the Cs…boy, what a buch of “crock” that would be.

IMHO, all Danny has to do is get a respected coach, a proven winner . Hveing said that, if we are talking “lottery” this time next season, then DA has to go.

This is not a lottery team as precently constituted(no injuries factored int)….so I hope DA does what he needs to do…but you better hurry Danny boy…the clock is ticking!!!!

by cocofan on Feb 13, 2007 8:08 PM EST reply actions  

IMO, Jefferson is worth more now than Walker was then. While Walker than had his flaws, he was a very skilled player. But, Jefferson is a legitimate post player in an era when they don’t exist and a future 20-10 guy. Not to mention he’s much younger.

by jarobiso on Feb 13, 2007 8:43 PM EST reply actions  

Boston writers will jump on any bandwagon, even if the wheels are ready to fall off. Most of them jumped on the Iverson bandwagon except the sensible ones like Jackie McMullan. And how is that working out for Denver, eh?

Now they’re on the Gasol bandwagon. Next week it will be some other bandwagon (after Gasol is traded to the Bulls, as seems likely). Who knows, maybe Cory Maggette will be the next darling of Boston sports talk radio.

There is no quick fix. There is only the slow and painful fix, starting with a new coach who will teach these kids (as a team) how to (1) push the ball up the floor, and (2) play defense. Unfortunately, every game under the present regime is one more game in which those
group skills remain undeveloped.

Otherwise, as cos said, the article is basically the “cliff notes” version of the conventional wisdom about the team (except that he seriously undervalues Tony Allen and seriously overvalues Szczerbiak).

by Brickowski on Feb 13, 2007 9:14 PM EST reply actions  

I agree with Jeff that the Celtics need to wait until the offseason to make any major personnel moves. The roster is poorly constructed. Making an ad hoc move midseason will only aggravate the problem. They need a comprehensive plan.

The Celtics are in position to make a major offseason acquisition (their lottery pick). Once they have an idea of who that might be, they should look to balance out their roster with a trade or two. But until then, they don’t know their needs. For instance, if the Celtics are fortunate enough to draft Oden, it suddenly makes a lot more sense to consider a Jefferson for Gasol swap (because arguably Gasol/Oden have more complementary skills than Jefferson/Oden). On the other hand, if the Celtics get lucky and draft Durant, Gasol doesn’t really seem to fit in quite as well. Or the Celtics might consider trading Pierce if the right deal came along. The point is, whoever they end up with, the Celtics need to stop thinking about roster moves in isolation from one another. Ainge needs to reshape the roster to balance it out, not just with veteran players, but with players whose skills compliment one another.

by smiggity on Feb 13, 2007 9:21 PM EST reply actions  

Nothing new. I can’t believe he suggested Jerry West as the next GM. The guy is a career Celtic nemesis and is ancient. He has to want to retire at some point, isn’t he like 75? It’s good to hear that GG and Big Al are desireable to other teams. I think it’s a bit to early give up on Leon Powe but other than that he was pretty fair in his assessment.

by Terry Duerod on Feb 13, 2007 9:25 PM EST reply actions  

agree with brickowski!

by 00dc2 on Feb 13, 2007 9:51 PM EST reply actions  

If ‘blowing the team up’ means letting Kandi, ARay & Powe walk, listening to offers for Perkins and Green, I hardly think that qualifies as an original idea.

We need vets & an impact player at the Center spot. If C’s can’t get Oden, look for a young big man who compliments Pierce & Jefferson and a PG to deliver the ball.

by LuckyNumber07 on Feb 13, 2007 9:52 PM EST reply actions  

I think Powe deserves more credit than the “Kandi man bus” like he says in his article. I’d rather they wave and eat Scally’s contract than let Powe walk.

This whole operation will hinge upon three things in my mind: 1) A great draft pick, 2) A good sized trade to clear up the dead-wood on the roster, and 3) A new coach.

My order of preference? 1 then 3 then 2. though sadly 1 and 3 are very close haha

by TomHamilton30 on Feb 13, 2007 10:07 PM EST reply actions  

Not sure how you can write that type of article starting out about trying to get Tim Duncan in ’97 and then not even say a single freaking word about Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. I mean that is very confusing..

by JHTruth on Feb 13, 2007 10:26 PM EST reply actions  

Did he say Scal was one of the fan favorites?

by popcontest on Feb 13, 2007 11:58 PM EST reply actions  

A lot of people on this board were in love with Gay. Warrick and Miller are solid wings. Gasol is at least a good power forward, if not very good. They have a bunch of servicable, if over paid bench guys.

I don’t understand why Memphis would have to dump salary. Why not trade someting like Miller and Cardinal for Banks and Thomas and the a 2007 first (number 22 or 29.)

Let’s say they get Noah with their own pick (being pessimistic) and Sean Williams with the Pheonix pick; then you have the following:

C: Noah / Williams
PF: Gasol / Swift / Thomas
SF: Gay / Warrick
SG: Jones?
PG: Banks / Staudemire

Obviously the guard spots are a thin, but hypothetically they could move Thomas, Staudemire, Warrick, Swift, and 2008 first rounder for Kidd and a 2007 second rounder (draft a shooter with it):

They’d have about 49 million in contracts in 2007/8 for:

Kidd (18), Gasol (14), Gay (2.5), Banks (3), Lowry (2), Noah (3), Williams (1.5), 2nd Round Shooter (1), four guys at the vet or rookie minimum. With only Kidd (2), Gasol (4), Banks (4) the only long deals.

NB: That’s an example of what they could do – I don’t think they have to get Kidd, they could make two deals to get a good SG and PG and add just as much to the team, since SG is a bit weak for them also.

Actually writing this post makes me think Memphis is in a better situation than the C’s:

  both have a good shot at a great pick in 2007.

  both have a good star (Gasol and PP) under contract, their guy is not as good as ours, but he plays a harder position to fill and is much younger, both are coming off worisome injuries.

  we have Wally and Scal (combined 15 million in 2008 for 2 and 3 y/r respectively) versus Miller and Cardinal (combined 14 million for 3 years left) – Wally is shorter, but higher paid and less useful than Miller. Scal and Cardinal are both chumpy PF/SF, but Scal has the better contract.

  both have a some young guys (Swift, Jones, Warrick, Gay, Lowry) versus (Perkines, Jefferson, West, Rondo, Green)

  Theo and Kandi are like the big men version of Eddie and Atkins, except their guys are expired this year (only Theo expires next year.)

The big thing they have over us is Miller is a much more valuable commodity for a team looking for a shooter IMO, than Wally. This means they are much more likely to get a team to eat a bad contract and still get something back.

And finally: both have el cheapo owners!!!

by Brendan on Feb 14, 2007 12:58 AM EST reply actions  

I’d rather have Gasol than either Durant or Oden. Oden has limited offensive skills right now — he could be Dwight Howard but just as easily could be a Kwame Brown/Perk. Gasol would spread the floor for Al. He’s the closest thing in today’s NBA to a Larry Bird type player — and Al could play the role of McHale. A frontcourt of Al, Gasol and Paul would be the best since the ’80s.

I’d trade G$, Theo, our uprotected first-rounder, Minny’s pick, and one of our role players (e.g., Gomes) for him.

by Lunchpail Eddie on Feb 14, 2007 2:24 AM EST reply actions  

I want to see Larry Brown coaching the Celtics, he comes with a lot of baggage but he’d be good for our players and whomever we get in the upcoming draft. Trade for a few veterans, get healthy and that team could win some games.

by NYDan on Feb 14, 2007 2:27 AM EST reply actions  

I wouldn’t trade Green. When he gets some more experience he will be tough to guard with his hops and 3 point range. Larry Brown lacks the
patience to coach young players. Wherever he coaches it becomes the
Larry Brown show.

by Greg37 on Feb 14, 2007 8:00 AM EST reply actions  

I’m really not fond of any of the retreads who get mentionned here as coaching candidates, and that includes Larry Brown, who wouldn’t accept the job anyway, since Brown is just waiting to swoop in and displace Billy King (not Mo Cheeks).

I suppose I could live with Hubie Brown, but he wouldn’t accept the job either.

by Brickowski on Feb 14, 2007 8:06 AM EST reply actions  

I like the idea of Paul Silas. He can command some respect and he has got to be an inprovment over Doc. Also, I don’t care if West is 100, I would replace Ainge with West in a heartbeat. I think he would come to. He had a bad parting with the Lakers and would no doubt love to stick to LA by bringing Boston back. Further, if the Celtics were to luck into the top pick, they would be a very attractive job for a GM. They would have a franchise player coming in the draft. They have a ton of young players who are tradable and cheap and they can only go up from here.

by JohnK on Feb 14, 2007 10:50 AM EST reply actions  

Am I the only one who thinks its funny that Jerry West is considered to be a genius even though the Grizzlies are horrible but Ainge is considered to be horrible because the Celts are — people who evaluate Danny’s job in terms of wins and losses this year are looking short term. Danny is not so bad. He has made some mistakes, but none of them that will really hurt us. He has put the team in a position to be much better soon. Before we had a bunch of old guys with big contracts that couldn’t play. Now we have a bunch of almost expiring big contracts and good crop of developing youth. Getting a good draft pick this year would be nice and after those salaries come off the books we can pick up top talent free agents. Why trade a young player that doesn’t make hardly any money when we can just wait and get someone whos as good without trading?

by GreenBalls on Feb 14, 2007 12:28 PM EST reply actions  

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