Picking 1st May Not Make Celts #1

Championship? I just want to see the Celtics get their act together enough to contend for a while. And even that is not guaranteed.

Great posting. I think the essence here is that it takes several strong players to win a championship and that getting the #1 pick guarantees nothing. In most drafts, the top seven players are real impact guys. Yes, the Celtics would be elated to draft a guy like Oden or Durant (although according to his father, Durant is not a lock to enter the draft this year, see ESPN for the article), but that’s not the end of the job for the Celtics.

If it’s Danny Ainge, or someone else making key decisions, surrounding a top pick with great teammates is the top priority.

Think about the Celtic Teams of the 80’s… Bird, a top draft pick (he would have been the first pick if he was going to play that season – thanks, Red), McHale, a #3 pick, Chief, a top otp pick, but not ours, rather the Warriors’, DJ, traded from Phoenix for Rick Robey, and Danny Ainge a SECOND round draft pick because he was already the starting third baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays.

What I’m saying is that it takes real savvy to build a team that can compete for championships year in and year out.

Kareem DID win a championship with the Bucks (in 1970-71?) but he needed Oscar Robertson’s help.

Maybe yes, maybe no. But I sure wouldn’t mind giving it a chance.

Enjoyed it. The 1st pick would give us meaningful games. Imagine that, meaningful games.

Your counting was off by three. First you left Hakeem out of your list of winners (BIG oversight). Then you left Mark Aguirre who won two titles with the Detroit Pistons. You also forgot that Glenn Robinson was on the 2004-2005 Spurs team which won the title, and averaged 3.8 per game in the playoffs that season. So that makes 10 out of the last 30 #1 picks to win a title.

Another thing that you gloss over is the number of titles won by those 10.

Magic Johnson – 5
Shaquille O’Neal – 4
Tim Duncan – 3
James Worthy – 3
Hakeem Olajuwon – 2
David Robinson – 2
Mark Aguirre – 2
Mychal Thompson – 2
Glenn Robinson – 1

That’s a lot of rings, and the only one who was a bench warmer was Glenn Robinson. I’m only counting the guys who have actually been drafted #1 in the last 30 years. Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Bill Walton, Elvin Hayes all won titles in the last 30 years though they were drafted before that window.

As you said, there was also a similar number of #1 picks who made it to the Finals, but didn’t win. Ralph Sampson may have had an injury shortened career, but he was an excellent player in 1986, and was part of the original “Twin Towers” tandem with Hakeem. It was his great catch and shoot in midair, off an inbounds pass, which sent them the 86 Finals over the Lakers. Iverson was the NBA MVP his year, and was beaten by a team which had another #1 in Shaquille O’Neal. Patrick Ewing was trumped in a thrilling Final by Olajuwon’s )#1 pick) Rockets. Kenyon Martin went to the Finals twice. Larry Johnson went with the Knicks and was a key player for them even though he was hobbled by injuries (remember the 4 point play?). Chris Webber got as close to the Finals as the overtime of a game 7 against the Lakers, and whoever won that series would have won the Title in that season.

With regards to the newer guys, who doesn’t think that LeBron is eventually going to be there, barring injury? The Rockets could very well go this season if Yao comes back strong.

There is also the matter of there being a difference between drafts like this past one, where a guy like Bargnani gets picked first, and a draft like the one where Hakeem, Jordan, and Barkley went in the top 5. There are drafts and then there are DRAFTS. This next one is looking like it is going to be very much like the 1984 draft, as opposed to a thin one like the 2006 version.

Decent post, but you left a lot of stuff out and your research could have been better. Me? I want the #1 pick.

The model we should be looking at is Detroit, acquiring a balanced line-up 1-5, not the Lakers or Spurs — b/c that’s unlikely (the numbers from the article make this point). If you look at the skills of Chauncey, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed, Ben Wallace, we’re really not that far away.

Gerald has to talent to be the equal of Rip Hamilton in 2 years, Paul is better than Tayshaun, and Al can post similar numbers to Sheed in terms of offense and rebounding (his D isn’t as good).

We need to use this draft pick on a center (Oden), use the Theo contract on a veteran point guard, and give the team 2 years.

And a top 5 coach!

Wow. This post is really, really wrong and really deceptive. First, you left a bunch of guys off the list. You also don’t point out that the guys that you’ve mentioned plus three others (Jordan #3 pick, Isiah #2 and Bird stolen by Celts, but likely a #1,2 pick otherwise) basically acct for ALL OF THE NBA CHAMPIONS OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS!! Of course, getting the #1 pick doesn’t guarantee anything, but GREAT players win titles, not collections of GOOD players (take note Gasol fans!!), and most of the GREAT players are taken in the first couple picks. In addition, this year is not a year where KMart or Pervis or Bogut are going #1, but one of TWO guys who have Duncan/Shaq/Hakeem type upside. This post is horribly misleading.

I think something is missing from the article:

1. When you draft at #1 you already know who is on the team, i.e. PP is already a Celtic. He’s certainly had a career worthy of a number one pick, so we can think of adding the #1 pick to a team that already has a Worthy player.

2. You take no consideration for how deep the draft may be. I.e. in years where the number one pick won a title, did the number two pick win one? In years where the number one and two won one, did the three pick won one? etc.

Hi All.

So… Mike D makes some good points. Let’s go through them.

Yes, you’re absolutely right. 10 of 30. And the thing is, I have Hakeem down in my notes. I just flaked on putting him in.

Also right about Jabbar, Hayes and Walton. But we’re only looking at the last 30 years. I actually thought about doing only the last 20 years, since the Celts last won a title, but didn’t want to leave out some of the good drafts of the 80s. So no points for piling on.

I’d also say that your list of players and number of championships actually reiterates my point more than refutes it. How many championships would Worthy and Thompson have won without Magic? The Admiral’s hall of fame career would have ended without a ring if the Spurs hadn’t held him out and tanked their way to Duncan. Aguirre was a nice compliment for Detroit, but those titles happened because of Thomas and Dumars (and because of the entire team’s commitment to defense). And as you point out, Robinson was along for the ride.

Also important to point out the Big Dog and Aguirre, like Shaq, won with teams other than the ones that drafted them.

True enough about Samson being good, and I remember that play against the Lakers. But the Rockets got smoked by Bird (#6 in 1979; a LOT of teams didn’t think he could play) and company in the finals. Hakeem, on the other hand, won without Samson.

I don’t want to get into yet another argument about Iverson. Sports economist David J. Berri has done a lot of analysis on player productivity and argues persuasively that Iverson was not only not the best player in the league that year, he wasn’t even the best on his team. His list of this year’s overrated and underrated players is at http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/02/12/the-overrated-and-the-underrated/

You won’t get an argument form me about Hakeem. But you’ve got to be either a Rockets or a Knicks fan. That series was slow death. Sludge-ball at it’s worst. Wasn’t John Starks like 2-20 during one of those games? I threw a shoe at the tv. Unwatchable basketball.

I mentioned Martin. I argue that Kidd, not a number one, was the more valuable player.

I remember Johnson. But again, it was for the Knicks, not the Hornets (where he had his best years), and he was hardly the straw that stirred the drink, even on a team of overacheivers. Not an argument for the impact of a number one pick.

As for Webb, horseshoes and hand grenades. We’re talking champs or finals here!

Who thinks LeBron won’t win a championship? Well… a lot of the folks who thought LeBron and the Cavs would be dominant THIS year actually. Maybe LeBron and Yao will get there. Then you can make your case. But we’re talking last thirty years. Not before. Not speculation about the future.

As for 2007 vs 1984, well, maybe. But, as they say about the movies, “Nobody knows nothin’.” If Portland knew MJ was going to be MJ, for instance, they wouldn’t have passed. (Although Drexler was a pretty fair player.) Nowitzski looked like a stiff his rookie year. Not now. Maybe that will be Bargnani.

So, fair enough Mike. You picked up on some players I missed, but I don’t really think you refute my point: even if we beat the odds and get the pick, it takes more than that.

For the record, I’m with you: Oden and Durant all the way. But I think what happens with the coach and GM will be just as important to the long-term success of the Celtics than whatever happens with the draft.

Loook no further than the celtics 16 banner and your see “team” not ist pick in drafts. It is a team game and even Jordan needed pipen Kerr et al to make up a team. Bird need guys as well so too would any number 1 pick. But a frnchise player at Number one is always envisioned and hoped for. anything less usually is a burst. No we should not think a number one players takes us to the championship. However,it should point us in the right direction and it should be obvious we are on the right road.

Of course, the problem with the issue is deciding who are really the “championship impact” players and there can some agreement, but no concensus, on that point. If there could be, the real question then would simply be how many of those “championship impact” players were #1 picks, and how many weren’t.

An active roster has 12 guys on it, Pdawg, and I have yet to see the team that has one a championship with only one player on the court, so your point isn’t exactly Earth shattering. Trades and free agents are important? You might as well be telling us that the Sun is big and hot – we already know that.

With regards to Worthy and David Robinson, they are both members of teh NBA’s Top 50 team, so they weren’t insignificant players by any stretch of the imagination. In both cases they won their titles with another #1 pick, in Worthy’s case multiple #1 picks, but a case could easily be made that those teams would have won fewer without them on the roster – there is a reason that they are on the Top 50 team.

With regards to Martin and Webber, K-Mart was his team’s top interior player, and Webber came within an overtime period of playing in a Finals that his team was assured to win. Both player’s were beaten by teams that were led by other #1 picks. That cannot be ignored.

Iverson wasn’t even the best player on his own team? LOL. Seriously, did you even bother watching the playoffs that year? He had multiple 50 point games in a single playoff series, never mind over the entire playoffs. The guy was playing out of his mind and was their offense. If he wasn’t out there they would have been a lottery team, not playing in the NBA Finals. He carried that team on his back.

You were the one that gave a thiry year window and brought up Jabbar, apparently ignorant of Walton and Hayes. I also left out criticism concerning your statement about Jabbar not winning in Milwaukee. He certainly did, as kevinstacom pointed out, so I left that part out of my first post as it was already mentioned.

You completely ignore that there is a difference between drafts. Some drafts are gold mines, and some are thin, like this last one. This is looking to be a gold mine draft, and most of the pundits are considering as being so.

No team has won a Title completely relying on young players, but no young player has ever stayed young forever either. These guys are going to mature and grow as players. Oden and Durant aren’t going to stay 19, Rondo isn’t going to stay 20, Gerald won’t be 21 four years from now, Al won’t be 22 in four years. In a few years we will have core which will be in its mid 20’s and will have grown together, and will be vry talented. If we are able to get either Oden or Durant, we will have one the league’s best core units, and they will all be ready to roll for years. Talent wins Titles. Concentrating just on a player being a vet, without taking into account their ability level is silly in the extreme.

As for the #1 pick not being the end all be all, as a general rule, tell me something that I and most of us here don’t know already. The thing is that when you have the #1 pick in a draft like this, you have the opportunity to set your team up for a deceade plus of dominance. Oden and Durant are a LONG way from Andrea Bargnani. They, barring injury, are sure fire stars in this league in the same way that Shaq, Hakeem, Magic and Duncan were. No guesswork needed; they are elite players.

The bottom line to me is that you did not fact check your article. This wasn’t just some post on the boards that you submitted, it is an article on this site’s fan column. It should not be open to being picked apart by someone spending half an hour looking at basketballreference.com’s data base. It is not nough to run it through the spellcheck, you must reread your work critically and fix the problems before you submit it.

FACT: the last team to win a championship without a top 3 overall pick was the 78-79 Sonics. The NBA is a superstar driven league.

Good post, P_Dawg, but MikeD & Ryanhath pretty much pwned you. Great teams have generally been built with guys who were drafted high. I don’t think anyone is silly enough to think a top 2 pick guarantees us anything, but I think our chances are vastly better if we get one of those guys.

Oden & Durant aren’t just good prospects. They’re considered elite prospects, even as college freshman. Some years the #1 overall gets you Kwame Brown or Bargnani, and then there’s the years it gets you Tim Duncan. This is a Tim Duncan year.

Is it your thought process that we shouldn’t be excited about Oden, because after all, he might just be another Patrick Ewing? If we somehow only get a player of Ewing’s caliber, I’ll take my chances.