Ford: The Big Gamble

So anyone else been watching that kid Granger playing for Indiana?
He was the pick directly after we selected GG. Danny went for “raw, but huge upside” w/ GG … Granger has been a solid contributor w/ Pacers. I have a feeling that the delta between these two will continue to expand. Also, I feel Celtics Nation is at the end of the Ainge/Rivers era … it’ll be over by next year’s All-Star game. Danny has run out of time. He’s drafted ok (Jefferson is a starter, Delonte a solid 3rd guard, Gomes can stay in an 9-man rotation, TA … still not sure, and GG is too far away to know what we have, Perkins is a backup), but his trades and FA activity has been horrible, HORRIBLE. They have the worst record because collectively, they have the worst talent. A top 3 pick in the 07’ draft will help begin the process of turning over this collection of players. Shed Telfair and Wally for whatever you can get to open roster space and cap space. Move Pierce … that’s right … move Pierce now. Chicago would give up Deng (a talented 21 year old who can score and rebound as a wing player), and NY’s 07’ pick (a top ten for sure). Sign a veteran PG who can play 20 minutes a game, while tutoring Rondo and West. Pray … PRAY for Oden (since Deng and Durant would constitute some overlap in how they play, but maybe not). So let this collection play … use NY’s pick and Minnesota’s pick next year to add talent (via draft or trade) … add Jefferson. I’d feel better about that future than trying to trade for veterans to surround Pierce before his biological clock runs out. Come on Wyc …

Why should we care what is good for Pierce? If Pierce wants to leave, I’ll send him a best wishes gift basket. What is good for the team is more important.

Granger is playing for a coach. GG is playing (or not playing) for Doc.

You’re right wdleehi … not sure why it stuck w/ me that GG went first. I remember thinking I’d of rather the Celts came away w/ Granger based on how that draft was playing out. Anyway, I’m looking forward to the future. Feels like I’ve been in a pergatory of sorts these last 4 years.

I would also advocate moving Pierce before he demands a trade, so long as the right package comes back.

Most of all this team needs a long defender like Deng, Kirilenko or Marion. I might even take a Boris Diaw/Kurt Thomas/Barbosa package for Pierce and Telfair. But why should Phoenix tinker with such a successful team?

Pierce for Kidd will never happen. If memory serves, Kidd has a no trade clause.

But Pierce has too much marketing value, and marketing is what the Celtics are all about these days. So I don’t see anything happening.

The problem with DAs master plan thus far is that while he’s assembled the pieces, they’ll only be desirable to other teams if they’re seen as “winning players/pieces”. Because we haven’t been able to make the big trade, we’re stuck with a surplus of young players that even those within the organization don’t know what we have.

The other problem is the coach (sorry Doc).

If we can get an Oden or a Durant out of the draft, and get a new coach, we could still be poised for big things. If we could put together a few winning streaks and show off the young talent that we have, then that would be even better because other teams will be will to trade for them.

New chant for the Garden: “Five more years, five more years, five more years.” It’s not Danny I want listening to Ford’s pod cast it’s Wyc. I hope for a full staff/management overhaul.

P.S. I’m glad When17 mentioned the Minni pick (though he’s a little ahead of himself – it’s not ‘08, it’s 09 at the soonest). It may tip the scales in Ainge and Boston’s favor in a trade that’s looking worse every time Wally hobbles off the court. If Minnesota can hang on and make the playoffs this year, it’s not hard to imagine Garnett leaving town in FA after ’07 and the team falling to the bottom of the league in time for us to reap a top 5 pick (a la Chicago last year and currently.

Utah desperately needs a swingman like Pierce.
Lakers and Chicago too. These are all teams needing one more scorer to go for the brass ring.

Suppose they don’t get a top two pick and they do trade Pierce, what do they have then? Yokim Noah diving for loose balls on the worst team in the history of the league. Unless they can get equal value for Pierce, how is trading him going to help? Yeah, if someone wants to pony up Chris Paul or Kevin Garnett for Pierce then maybe it is a good idea. I don’t see that happening.

How can media people be so stupid? Your team is terrible, the best course of action is to trade your best player for pennies on the dollar. Yeah that is a great idea. I guess that is why Ford gets the big bucks from ESPN. There is never been a trade where a team gave up a top 20 all-star for “prospects” or “salary cap room” or whatever where the team trading the top 20 player wasn’t the looser in the deal. This is the NBA, a player star driven league. This is not the NFL where you can make a Hershall Walker trade and fill 10 holes for the price of one and come out ahead. In the NBA when you give up players like Pierce you end up on the loosing end. If the only option is to give Pierce away, the Celitcs might as well fold and tell David Stern and the NBA thanks for the memories but there is no point in staying in business any longer.

teams that need a swingman? New Orleans needs a 3, at least until Peja comes back. Clippers actually need one, since they don’t play Magette. The Kings need…Lord, i don’t even know what the Kings need. Timberwolves, if they’re going to keep KG. Utah. Chicago really needs a player like Pierce, maybe even more then Gasol. There’s a market for Paul, if they decide to go that route.

And i agree – maybe you wait to see how the draft plays out, but you need to either 1) trade some of our ‘assests’ for a veteran, or 2) trade paul, blow things up. because the only other choice is 3) perpetual mediocrity

What happens if you wait for Oden, get him and still don’t get any better?

Forget the Bill Russell comps. That’s absurd. How about a very good player similar to an Okafor in Charlotte-shot blocker, defender, can score some. ’Meka has some pieces down there and they still stink out loud. And he came out a more mature player.

“Utah desperately needs a swingman like Pierce.
Lakers and Chicago too. These are all teams needing one more scorer to go for the brass ring.”

That is great Bickowski, but who exactly are the Lakers and Chicago going to pony up for Pierce? Maybe Bynum might be worth it, but that is an awfully high price to pay for a 19 year old center. No way is any of the guys on Chicago worth Pierce. You have a great idea to help Chicago or LA win another title, how about an idea that will help the Celtics?

the first time i ever watched the celtics was the 86 championships. i have watched this franchise wither up and die, the organization has spent two decades rebuilding. and placing our hopes on even more youth is a recipe for many more years of the same. the draft the draft is a crapshoot. and anyone other then oden will not be ready for a few more years.

we have the pieces to drastically alter the immediate future of this organization. danny has to pull the trigger. if not the owners could find a gm who is willing to cash in the chips.

i cannot see memphis turning down green, west/gomes, perk, and a #1 protected pick.

just freekin do it danny

“Forget the Bill Russell comps. That’s absurd. How about a very good player similar to an Okafor in Charlotte-shot blocker, defender, can score some. ’Meka has some pieces down there and they still stink out loud. And he came out a more mature player.”

Okafur doesn’t have the footwork or the defensive instincts of Oden. Even as a junior, Okafur wasn’t the defender Oden was right out of high school. Oden is not Bill Russel but no one is. Oden is Alonzo Mourning without the knee and kidney problems. He is a solid 24 12 guy for next 12 to 15 years. Things would definitely get better with Oden.

Chicago would give back Deng, the Knicks 2007 first rounder and PJ Brown (expiring).

Utah gives back Kirilenko and Brewer.

The Lakers don’t have the right package to get Pierce.

I don’t get it Johnk … on the one-hand you say it’s " … a player star driven league", then say Pierce may only rate pennies on the dollar in return if we move him. Where’s the logic? What factors would cause us to have to settle for those pennies? I’d only move him for good value in return. But clearly (at least to me) this org needs to move on. Our strategic focus can no longer be to surround Pierce with talent for a 2-3 year run. It’s too late, and based on what we’ve become, that ceiling will NOT reach to a championship. We’re too far away, Pierce is closing in on 30, and unfortunately is a max contract.

If Chad Ford was such a great basketball mind, he would be running a team and not just writing about them. Hoping for lottery love is the best chance this team has right now of getting a franchise player. If you have to give up both GG, Big Al, corpse of Ratliff and the pick to get Gasol, how much will you really be improving the team? They will have no depth and have taken on a huge long term contract. Does Gasol and Pierce win you a championship? It isn’t a lock that it even gets you to the conference finals. If West wants both Gordon and Deng you have to figure he wants at least that much from the C’s.

And what other big players are being talked about? Kidd? He isn’t coming to Boston with all that baggage and with his history with the fans.

Further in the chat, Ford talks about how GM’s need to be more “bold” and that most are too passive. There is a fine line between bold and bad. Some of the people that lauded the Nuggets for making a “bold” move to acquire A.I. are going to be the same ones blasting them for it’s failure. Being a GM is a very difficult job, made all the more complex by the salary cap ramifications of one failed act of “boldness”.

Wow! That’s a scary appraisal on the part of Chad. That’s the strongest argument I’ve heard for trading the pick. So, if we don’t deal now, we wait for the lottery. Lottery bounces our favor, we get Oden/Durant. Anything else, and we trade for a vet to go with Pierce. No vet possible, we trade Pierce and endure the season from hell. Is that the nutshell version?

No one can trade for PP with that extension he just signed. 20 million a year? LOL.

“I don’t get it Johnk … on the one-hand you say it’s " … a player star driven league”, then say Pierce may only rate pennies on the dollar in return if we move him. Where’s the logic"

The logic is that you never get value for a star. You get someone else’s spare parts. It is a star driven league. That means that you can not replace stars with non-stars. In the NFL, I can trade one great player for five good ones and end up better off because I have to have 22 starters. In the NBA if I do that, I end up with nothing because only five guys at a time can be on the floor and there is no replacing a great player. Go find me one instance where a team traded a great player in the NBA and was better off for it? There are not any I can think of.

I don’t seem to get one other thing. If Noah is considered to be a player that no one wants anything to do with (including myself), then why is he projected to go at the 4th pick in what’s considered to be the “best draft in recent memory”. I am really not familiar with the NBA ready talent after Wright out of NC. Of course I know the good players in college, but that certainly doesn’t translate to the NBA, necessarily.

“We’re too far away, Pierce is closing in on 30, and unfortunately is a max contract.”

Pierce has got at least another five good years left in him and he earns that max contract. The point of having salary is to spend it. Guys like Steve Francis who have max salaries are a problem. Guys like Pierce who score 25 a night are not a problem. Any all-star caliber player not in his first contract is going to be a max player. So what? You have to have some max players if you plan to compete.

“If Noah is considered to be a player that no one wants anything to do with (including myself), then why is he projected to go at the 4th pick in what’s considered to be the "best draft in recent memory”. "

I don’t think there is anything wrong with Noah. He is a good player. I wouldn’t take him over Durrant or Oden but I would certainly take him over Adam Morrison or Aldridge and some of the guys who went high last year.

“Go find me one instance where a team traded a great player in the NBA and was better off for it? There are not any I can think of.”

JohnK … Toronto traded Vince Carter to the Nets, Toronto is better.
Detroit traded Grant Hill for Ben Wallace and others … Detroit won championships.
Hell, it’s early, but Philly w/o Iverson looks better (addition by subtraction), and they still have other parts of that trade coming.

I know what you’re saying JohnK … but I’d like to think the Celtics brass would strongly consider a solid offer for him. He should not have any kind of untouchable status.

“JohnK … Toronto traded Vince Carter to the Nets, Toronto is better.”

Not because of that trade. They are only better because they were horrible for years and built up some good players.

Detroit got lucky when they traded Hill. No one knew he was going to turn into a physical disaster. Had Hill stayed healthy and been the player in Orlando that he was in Detroit, we would look at that trade totally differently. I will admit that if Pierce is going to break his foot ten times in the next five years, for God’s sake trade him.

No player is untradable. For the right assets, I would trade Pierce but that would have to be a really rare trade. I would send him to LA for Bynum but what would LA want with Pierce when they already have Kobe?

Brick, there’s no such thing in the NBA as a no-trade clause, from what I understand.

I like your thoughts on Barbosa/Diaw/Thomas, though.

Yes, there are no trade clauses for veteran players, and I believe Kidd would qualify. See http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#85

Ford mentions the negatives but doesn’t mention the positives. Just look at what has happened in San Antonio with Duncan. Sure, they have one of the best coach/GM tandems but their job is so much easier with Duncan secure on the team. This is why the Celts tanked in 97 and why they’ll take another shot in 07. Besides, who knew that after Duncan the 97 would end up being one of the worst in history? We still ended up getting Billups but f’d up with Mercer.

Ford also says that not getting the top pick led fans to “mourn” the next five years, but that was more due to Pitino treating the players like college kids and revamping the roster and not being patient with younger players.

If we want to make a deal in the offseason, chances are most of these guys will still be available. We can see what pick we get and who’s coming out, then decide from there.

Even if the Celtics get the third or fourth pick that will still be a good player at a pretty low rookie salary. That pick plus Theo’s contract plus some combination of other young players on the team is a pretty good package. Like mime says, all of these guys will still be out there over the summer. If the pick is not a top two it is still very tradable and the Celtics should have a real shot at getting a quality vet to pair with Pierce and the seemingly emergent Jefferson.

Agree with Brick we should be targeting Kirilenko — Utah desperately needs a ‘2’ and maybe we could send DWest, Scal and Theo for him (my guess is they’d need Gomes, not Scal).

The downside is that he’d push Al to the 5, and we’d have two lanky, undersized guys down low.

There’s no way Phoenix does that Pierce deal. They’d be giving up 3 of their top 7 and they have no depth beyond that. On paper it seems like a very fair trade, but I think there’s a Nash effect to consider — he makes guys look better than they are.

What if Pheonix doesn’t win it this year? How do you keep that team together? Yeah it is good and it is fun to watch, but I can’t see it being any better than it is this year. If Phoenix doesn’t win the title this year, they might do a Pierce deal.

Utah would probably be a good partner for the C’s if they deal Pierce. They need somebody like Pierce badly. Plus, they have an unprotected pick of the Knicks in 2009 or 2010 to add as a sweetner to any mix of players.

“Plus, they have an unprotected pick of the Knicks in 2009 or 2010 to add as a sweetner to any mix of players.”

You are kidding? I know Isiah gave away this year’s pick in the Chandler deal but he gave away 2009’s as well? When did that happen? God that is funny. The Knicks are never going to get any better.

I do agree with what Ford was saying to a certain degree. The NBA isn’t the same as the NFL. Having the worst team by no means gaurantees you the best pick. But, I think you hold onto that pick, continue losing, and pray that your 50% chance of getting Oden or Durant pays off. I believe that either of those players would have just as much impact for the Celtics next year as Gasol would.

Now, I don’t watch that much college ball, but if the pick falls to 3 or 4, I think you have to deal it along with GG, Ratliff, etc for Gasol or another impact veteran. In either scenario you would wind up with a player that would make an immediate impact next year and get us into the playoffs. If DA sticks with the 3rd or 4th pick and keeps all the young guys for another year, I think Pierce would ask out.

As for dealing Pierce, I think even right now, if the Bulls would give us Deng, Gordon, Brown, and the Knicks pick I’d pull the trigger. The team wouldn’t have that bonafide superstar, but the sum of its whole would be greater. Think Detroit compared to the Lakers.

This is how the Knick pick breaks down. It would appear that unless the Knicks get really good, really soon, Utah will have it unprotected in 2010.

2007 first round draft pick from New York
New Yorkâ€â"¢s own 2007 1st round pick to Utah via Phoenix (top 24 protected in the 2007 Draft, top 23 protected in the 2008 Draft, top 22 protected in 2009 and unprotected in the 2010 Draft). [New York – Phoenix, 1/5/2004 and then Phoenix – Utah, 2/19/2004]

i agree with trading pierce, but i think you will be shocked at how low his value is around the league when the time comes. that’s why he should be dealt before he demands a trade. i fear we could get less than the sixers got for iverson.

Pierce is a celtic and the trade deadline has passed. So Oierce is with us until the summer no matter. A lots of team may want pierce prior to the draft so we should wait and see. My hope for the top pick remains strong.

It seems to me that Ford is forgetting a key fact. While there are only two franchise players possibly available. This is still a very good and deep draft. Given our current record and chances of move lower in the draft we are looking at no worse than the 5th or 6th pick in the draft. This is a major chip in making a trade for a veteran.

So you go for Oden, Durant or a trade. In any case we come out winners. The key is that we wait until we know what we have.

Some of the posts just don’t make sense. Green, West/Gomes, Perk and a protected #1 for who Gasol, I guess. Not going to happen. Jerry West won’t do that deal.

And anyone suggesting trading PP for something less than a star doesn’t make sense either. What we really need is to find another star to go with PP, but it takes 2 to tangle. Somebody has to want what we have, then you have to work out the contract issues. Everybody on this board looks at today. This is a business, you have to look at 1 to 5 years down the road otherwise you wind up in luxury tax hell and most owners are willing to pay that penalty.

Clearly this year has been horrible. The injuries to PP, Wally, TA, Theo and others have killed any chance of a playoff run. One good thing is that the kids, like West, Al, and Rondo are getting more PT which should help down the road. Another benefit is that this should be a great year for the draft, maybe the best in 10 year and deep in bigs which we need. People have said for years that to tank to get a good draft pick. This is even better, we aren’t tanking, the team is playing hard, but losing in large part due to the injuries. I’m not saying this team would have been a contender, but if healthy would be capable of the 7/8th place in the East at best.

Here’s what I see. We wait for the draft lottery and the underclassmen to declare. If we get the 1st pick and Greg Oden is available he’s picked and we become instant playoff bound. We then try to trade some youth for upgrade our overall talent. Generally an 8 man rotation is adequate. If we get the 2nd pick, I’m sure we take Durrant but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded for a Big, but maybe not. If we get the 3rd or lower pick, I think the chances increase that we trade the pick. Again looking for a big. The one other guy that I do like a lot, is Noah. Some people don’t, but the guy rebounds, plays defense, has a great motor, he needs to work on his offense, but the guy is about one thing – WINNING!!!!!

Personally, I hope we can Doc this summer. I’m not impressed. His only redeeming quality is that he has the team playing hard and not quiting. His defensive scheme if there is one is terrible. His sub pattern makes no sense. I don’t understand his starting lineup – we keep getting smaller and smaller. Even his sub patterns get smaller and smaller til we’re playing Gomes or GG at Center. I think we trying to emulate Phoenix and Golden State but it’s just a gimmick.

Very sad day. DJ was a class act and ultimate NICE guy from what i heard. Also a great player who was very humble.

I dont understand why everyone thinks that as soon as we find out that our pick is crap (not #1 or #2). That Memphis would then want the devalued pick and a couple of other guys for thier best player. I would think that the value of the pick would be greater now to Memphis. Because having the two possibly top 3 lottery spots would double thier chances of getting Oden or Durant. More ping pong balls. Why would they trade their best player for a #4 pick in the draft and Gerald Green?

If they look at things out there in Memphis like we do here. Then this season is all about getting Oden or Durant. Wouldnt doubling your chances at that be an attractive thing to do?

I think the real sticking point in the whole Gasol thing is Al Jefferson. Danny is not willing to give him up. And Jerry West isnt going to trade away his All Star seven foot Center without getting a big man in return. Imagine if he didnt get Durant or Oden and the trade ended up Gasol for Gerald Green, Joakin Noah, Gomes and Telfair ?

My point is that if we are in fact balking at making a Gasol deal without Al Jefferson in it. Just so that we can see what our pick will be. We are in fact probably preventing that deal from ever getting done. In the scenario where we dont get a top 2 pick.

Anyway its probably too late now.

I’ll just point out that the Knicks did not trade away their pick this year. They traded away a right to swap picks. So the Knicks will still have a first rounder, but it will be Chicago’s.

what iff…. we trade pierce for the top picks. say we get pick #2, trade pierce and maybe some other players for the number 1 pick. if we get #1 pick, trade pierce for the #2. then we can have oden AND durant. wouldn;t that be nice?

If there’s anything to karma, we’re due. If we don’t get one of the top two picks fire Lucky.

The idea that because the draft didn’t work in the Celtics’ favor in 1997 precludes hoping for a stud in the 2007 draft is just plain dumb. And even if the lottery doesn’t go our way, a pick in the top four is going to bring a primo talent. Besides Oden, Durant and Wright, there’s Noah, who I think is going to be an excellent player.

Please stop throwing out trades with Chicago unless you’re trading Jefferson. Chicago needs low post scoring. That is what they are looking for and that’s the only way they trade Deng or Gordan or anyone worth a darn. I can’t ell you how many times I’ve pointed that out and yet people continue to ignore it.

Why does everybody assume that as soon as we get Gasol everything will be great? How far wil we go with Gasol? Playoffs? Eastern conference finals? Nr.17? I bet Gasol won’t win us nr. 17. So what is Pierce going to do in let’s say two years from now when he found out that the veteran help he wants now is not going to win him a ring? He will want out anyway and where does that leave the Celtics? As much as I would hate to see PP go, he is and never will be bigger than the Celtics. Even Pierce will eventually do what is good for Pierce and that won’t necessarily be good for the Celtics. Getting Gasol without giving up AJ and the 2007 first round pick would be great(is not going to happen I know). Other than that I would take my chances in the lottery. We won’t get to many chances getting players like Oden or Durant.

hopefully we can land a talented PG like Sebastian Telfair if we trade the pick (if it falls outside the top two). i don’t understand the spirited defense of Danny Ainge. he is a joke. he passes on brandon roy and rudy gay with the number six pick, in favor of telfair and a year less on raef’s deal (which Danny acquired!). Can Danny. let’s move on.

well i dont know about you guys but if this draft is like the last Franchise player draft that would be the lebron james and carmelo one right? so if this draft is supposedly just as deep maybe if i can remember no one even cared or heard about the other 2 guys that didnt go in the top 3 that are just as good imo…forget about wade and bosh? so how in the world do any of you know if any of the other picks after oden and durant wont come out better? or the same? Cus im pretty sure any of you would take wade or bosh if u had the chance at that number pick and not complain