What If We Don’t Win The Lottery?

I believe that with Danny’s track record for trades, we would be better served to add a ‘couple of mid-level guys’ instead of trying to hit the home run with a star. example: we trade Theo and a couple of our young studs w future picks for KG. KG decides he is not staying in Boston and opts out. We end up with nothing but cap space. example: we trade Theo and a couple of young studs for Swift, Stoudamire, Jones and Warrick. Swift decides he wants to leave town, but we still have a couple of players who can contribute. 8)

I would like to see what DA does with all the picks/youth/assets he has stockpiled before showing him the door. I do think Doc should go thou. The loosing is proving to be more than just injuries. Every team has them and manage to stay competitive and pull a win here-and-there. Only TA and Wally are out. You can’t tell me those are all-stars you just can’t win without. The time to make some hard decisions is comming. I’d be surprised to see Doc getting fired thou. DA is letting his friendship cloud his judgement.

..but yes, I’d give DA and incomple grade until next trade-deadline(reason being, you need to give it some time to see if what you did in the summer is working or not)

I agree, Chief, that it’s really not a great idea for us to all be automatically assuming that Oden and Durant will come out. Yeah, it’s likely that they will, but there’s still that chance.

In terms of landing the top pick, as dumb as this might sound, I’d almost rather the Celtics get the #2 pick. That way, the pressure is off in terms of the Oden vs. Durant argument. If the C’s choose Oden #1 and Durant turns out much more of a superstar, or vice versa, then we’ll never hear the end of it. But if another team has to pick #1, then they make the decision for us. Yeah, it’s goofy logic, but it’s something to think about.

Then again, this could be like the ‘84 Draft. Obviously, the Blazers were and always will be morons for picking Bowie over Jordan, but as far as the Rockets picking Olajuwon at #1 instead of MJ, that didn’t exactly turn out horribly for them. Maybe Oden will be the Olajuwon to Durant’s MJ, and things will work out for both teams that pick at the top of the ’07 Draft.

Then again, the Celtics will probably get screwed and end up with #3. And if not, I’d still rather see the C’s trade the pick for some blockbuster talent. But we all know how great of a trader Ainge is…

I sincerely hope ownership doesn’t do the stupid thing and can Danny anytime soon. Yes, his trades have been a mixed bag at best, pretty darn bad at worst. But I still want this guy calling the shots… it seems I’m more and more alone on this by the day.

We’ve waited a long time. Give Danny a minimum of 2 more years, and you won’t be sorry. This guy is as good a talent evaluator as there is right now. He has the potential to really improve this team in the offseason.

With Rondo, Pierce & Jeff, you have 3 critical pieces for the future. Somehow we all seem kind of lukewarm on the fact that we have a 21 year old 6’10" F/C who is 6th in the NBA in rebounding and on the verge of being a 20 & 10 guy.

Don’t give up on Danny yet. At this time next year we’ll all be happy.

Justin…“Give Danny a minimum of 2 more years?” Do you mean maximum? I’m willing to give him one more year, maximum. Every year, it seems some people keep saying “oh yeah, it’ll happen, give him more time.” I think most of us realize, enough is enough at this point. He’s got this offseason and next season. If things aren’t turned around, it’s pretty clear he’ll be shown the door.

bodyofwater: there was no quick fix to this Celtics team when DA took over. IMHO, what Pitino did as a GM was the worst job of personnel management I’ve ever seen from a Boston GM of any sport in my lifetime.

I’ll agree that within the next 1 year, the “plan” has to be a lot clearer. What I’m saying is I truly believe within the next 12 months things will look a whole lot brighter for the C’s, and I think Danny is going nowhere.

I would be VERY disappointed if we canned Danny now. Maybe that’s just me. But I’m a fan.

I will say, though, that I think Doc has to go. The talent on this team is not bad enough to justify a 12 win team right now. We need a new face next year at HC.

fact: people will judge ainge completely on how the balls driop. fact:people already did’nt like aing before he got here because it’s not larry bird calling the shots.fact: boston has the worst fans in the nba.

Team is getting valuable experience by the game.Get them healthy.Now add a top 4/7 pick.(I know we are all salivating for a chance to bring Oden,Durant to Boston.but if we end up with Noah,Wright or one of the other solid big men in the top 10).Add a solid mid level guy thru free agency,a trade for a veteran( does not need to be a star just a solid on/off court presense).and a coach.And i think we will be off to a very good start for next season.

isn’t it sad that we are so dependent on luck and the lottery? we need a big and a guard and a coach. keep danny and let him find them. the team as now constructed is full of potential, but missing 2-3 pieces. that’s a lot, folks. we’ll get somebody good enough in the lottery, no matter. we do need 1-2 vets who know how to blend their roles to what the team needs.we deperately need a new coach who can utilize this team’s energy and spirit to play good defense and someone to distribute the ball.

I would like to see them try to build around Pierce. I dont want to see him on another team. And I think we are in a position to put a pretty strong team around him in the near future. Whether it’ll be a championship winning team is a whole other ballgame.

To me he’s kind of a Ray Bourqe type player here in Boston (he’ll never be as popular because hes not white). And I think we should keep him here as long as he can play and we have a shot at getting him a title here. And if we know for sure that the window has closed for us and him. We should trade him to a good situation if possible. Like we did for Bourque.

great article…but it got me so nervous about this offseason. what if danny botches things so badly that we come out with nothing and have to wait for another summer where stars are opting out in like 2012?

“Celtics send Gerald Green, Rondo & Theo to Utah for Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko. Kirilenko’s value is declining (how much I’m not sure) and he’s got a ton of years and salary left. Utah might be looking to part with him since he’s adding little value right now. Perhaps they are willing to part with Williams (for Green and Rondo) b/c they’re getting fantastic talent in return. We end up w/ our point guard stud, and add a potential steal (given it’s a gamble) with Kirilenko.”

Utah would turn this down if it was PIERCE, Rondo and Green for those two. No team is going to give up thier FRANCHISE player for potential off a team that’s lost all but 1 of thier last 20 some games.

I also think people are overvaluing how valuable Ratliff’s contract really is, because there’s no guarantee he ends up retiring. IF he doesn’t retire the max savings a team can expect from his contract is 80% of 41 game checks. If that team is over the luxury tax line they’ll still have to count his full salary against that payout.

Building around Pierce has been a failure. He’s a great player who is capable of delivering an all-star caliber offensive performance on any given night. But those nights have been few and far between. On most nights he’s not nearly good enough to carry a team, and recently he’s been letting in more points than he has been scoring. Too many turnovers, too many empty trips, too many sluggish, embarrassing performances.

He’s not worth what he is being paid. A few months ago I would have moved him only for the right package. Now I believe they must take what the can get for him and go in a different direction. The future is Gerald Green, not Paul Pierce.

And I’m not willing to sacrifice the team’s long term future for a couple of 45-win seasons, which is what will happen if they trade Jefferson or this year’s pick to get Pierce some veteran help. The ONLY exception would be Kevin Garnett, and even then I doubt that Garnett, Pierce and a bunch of role players would be enough to make a championship run against teams like Dallas and Phoenix.

I’m also quite confident that whatever happens, Grousbeck will make decisions based on marketing considerations and short-term profitability. As someone noted the other day, the current owners are just Paul Gaston with better marketing.

great great great article. We are 4 steps away this offseason to being a good team.

I’m not judging based on this season. I’m judging based on the last three seasons and on what I see out on the floor.

This is 2007, not 2002. Pierce is nearing 30. The young players are not ready, and by the time they are he will be 32-33, assuming of course that he will wait that long before demanding a trade. He won’t. He took the fat extension and now he’s like a newly widowed woman waiting to date again. It won’t be long before he starts to make noise about wanting his ring.

It’s too late. Time has passed him by. If they wait another year before trading him they’ll be lucky to get what Philly got for Iverson.

Are you really serious thinking that it would be “numbly stupid” not to continue building around PP if we dont get one of the first two top picks and that we may have to start trading our young players for veterans just because PP cannot wait for them to mature? Since this is a free country and we have the right to think and say what we please, I guess I wont repeat what Ive aleady said about this very subject. Peace

Even if we get Oden, Doc will still start Veal instead of him since Veal shines in practice, knows all of Doc’s intricate defensive schemes by heart and finally brings all those marvelous intangibles such as…such as… er such as…

Even assuming they get Oden, they still will not be ready for a championship for 2-3 years. And if they get Durant they have a further dilemma, since his natural position in the pros is the same one that Pierce plays.

It’s time to do what’s best for the long-term basketball prospects of the franchise, not its short term-financial prospects.

We all love Pierce and remember those great performances. But sometimes you just have to say goodbye and move on.

I didn’t even bother to read your entire analysis, Jeff, cause it doesn’t seem at all plausible to me…If we don’t land Oden or Durant, we trade Pierce…period!…What else is there to say?…For one he’s gained about 15 lbs on his hiatus and is showing signs of melancholia, not involutional at this stage, but nonetheless not a good sign…For another thing, if we don’t get O/D, he will want a trade…Mark my words, either of these, he has a shot at a ring, perhaps, but anyone else and we’re still too far away for him to be viable when it happens…A top two pick or Pierce is a gonna!

2-3 years is still within Paul’s window of opportunity so I am praying for Oden. If we land Durant, let’s trade Pierce for… something If we don’t get the top two pick, let’s not forget Michael Jordan was picked 3rd. Not to mention all these international players now that we don’t even hear about until draft day.

Paul has been a great player for the C’s and Tommy says the best offensive player in franchise history, but he’s never wanted to be the top dog. That’s why having Antoine around actually helped his game. Building around him is a good idea because guys who can score as easily as he can are hard to come by but it has to involve getting a leader like Sam Cassel (who is obviously younger and in better shape).

Anybody see the Bulls nearly catch the Pistons today? Their young guys seem alright. I wonder if it could have something to do with coaching?

I just finished watching Oden vs Wisconsin. I also saw the first OSU-Wisconsin game.

Oden won’t suddenly make a the Celtics a contender. In fact he’s not as good offensively as Jefferson. His hands are just average, and his footwork needs refinement. He’s a 2-3 year project as an offensive player.

Jeff, I don’t even know what it is you are trying to say…I went back and read your entire article and have no idea HOW you would build around Pierce, or who you would go after, or who you think will stick or be traded…I think perhaps you’re in a state of mind similar to mine: If we don’t get a top two, it could be the proverbial Bridge for the franchise to say nothing of the fans…How’s the Las Vegas Celtics sound???…Just kidding, I think, I hope…
Anyway, this is what I want to know…

WHAT DO WE HAVE EXACTLY FOR DRAFT PICKS, MONEY AND CONTRACTS (EXPIRING) GOING INTO THE SUMMER…I know some of our business majors out there have the contracts and money situations down, and what of the draft picks?…I for one would like to know exactly what we will be holding going into the offseason???…Thanks

We won’t be building around only Pierce.It will now be Pierce/Jefferson Plus. That’s a start.Let’s see what transpires this offseason.2/4 solid moves(including the lottery).Then we can make judgement on this team.

Jeff, first, we only have a 25% chance of getting the 1st pick not 50/50. Second, if we trade Pierce and get back the equivalent of what Brick said Philly got for Iverson, we will maintain the status quo. We will be big time losers just like this year while we wait for the youngsters. If Danny could pull off a very good trade for Pierce that would be a surprise and another matter entirely.

The other idea would be if we got Oden would be to still trade Pierce for younger talent though with a little more experience than our kids. And if Oden does need 2-3 years to fully develop then hopefully it would all come together at the right time.

Brick, I have to agree with you on Oden, he’s a child with a curmudgeon’s face. At this stage, he isn’t going to blow the doors off the NBA in the next couple of years anyway. Durant is far more NBA ready, but that would force Paul to the shooting guard in which he is listed, but seldom plays…If we go with a draft pick and not trade it for a star, it’s not too far from feasible to see Pierce go for even a lesser (younger) yet established player and yet another draft pick…Don’t forget, Danny’s crazy…Hah!

As far as the draft is concerned, the team with the worst record has a 25% chance of getting the top pick and a 46.5% chance of landing one or two…soooooooo, our chances at Oden or Durant are less than 50/50…The second worse team win/loss has a 19.9% at one and a 37.7% at one or two…There’s really no sense in going any further…Suffice it to say that our chance at landing the fourth pick if we have the worst record is

oooopsss!…didn’t mean to do that, the fourth pick is 35.8% or looked at differently, by far the greater percentage than any of the first three picks taken alone…Kinda makes May 22 a pretty heavy day in Celtic history, eh?

I think Durant could play PF in the phoenix style offense that Doc and Danny have been publicly planning to reveal for the last two years.

But looked at realistically, the worst teams shot at a top three is 64.2% and that doesn’t seem nearly as scary…No!, that’s a lie…I’m scared!!!

Bounding, if we have the worst record then three teams would have tojump us int he pecking order. That seems fairly unlikely to happen. I don’t recall it ever happening before, maybe once. ???

this year building around pierce should mean keep our pick at 1-4 whereever it is. it also mean all you say in making the right trade using Theo and a groupof our youtyh to get the right veteran star who might be on the market. Simply adding or trading our pick is not the answer. B Davis and ray allen are my top two choices. I would not be adverse to offering west or green (pick one) Telfair and Gomes in any deal to get us the ray allen type deal. our pick, Jefferson and Perkins are off limits from my point of view.

What are the details on the Minnesota pick?

Ray Allen isn’t going to make them a contender any more than Ricky Davis made them a contender. It’s all a marketing gimmick. Ray Allen will sell tickets for a year.

They need to trade Pierce for expiring deals (unfortunately there aren’t too many of those in ’08) and prospects, or for a player young enough to be hitting his prime in 3 years, e.g. Kirilenko or Joe Johnson.

What we should also consider is trading Pierce AND some young talent — call it door #3, Jeff.

It starts with what we could get for Paul — I’d want a good young center and point guard, the two hardest positions in the NBA. If we could get Maggette, Kaman and Livingston from the Clips (all of whom are under-rated) for Paul and Bassy, I think we do it in a heartbeat.

In terms of trading young assets, it depends on which assets. Delonte is prime candidate — he’d be a big upgrade for a team like Utah as a 2 or for the Laker as a 1. If we could package him with Gomes and Theo’s contract, we could make a run at Kirilenko or Kwame Brown — defense-oriented pieces, which we need desperately.

Al is now a proven centerpiece, despite his D, and untradeable except in landing Garnett. In terms of getting value back for G$ and Rondo, we shouldn’t trade them b/c the ceilings are so high but so is time to develop — we need to see what we have.

Due to injuries, we’d be selling too low if we traded Perk or Tony. Wally and Scals are probably untradeable.

Expiring contracts sound like a nice asset but that didn’t convince Memphis to take PJ Brown or Orlando to deal Grant Hill. Brown and Hill actually play, Theo doesn’t. I know it’s of some value but I’m starting to think it’s of more value to the owners when it expires than it is as a trading chip.

We better get some value for PP before his value deteriorates, as it will, by the mere passage of time.
We tried our best to gather young guns for 4 years and we didnt get the resukts we wanted. PP was our building rock, but we never got him the accompanying assets. We drafted to low to really make a difference. It just hasnt worked out. Call it bad luck; call it the position in whiuch we drafted, but thats what it is.
Now we got Al, a very promising low post player which we havent had since McHale. We have a Tony Allen, which if he gets back to where he was, will be an excellent offensive and defensive player. We have an excellent outside shooting guard in West, even with his other shortcomings, he is the best we have right now. Gomes is a good bench player. Perk may be done with that foot problem, but at best, he wont make any difference; we missed on him. Rondo will not take us to the next level if he doesnt get an offense going. Any kind of a guard must be able to score to at least draw the attention of his defender.
GG is X factor right now. He could be a star; he could be mediocre; We should give him a chance to develop whatever he can do best.
We need a good draft and we need more players that the draft wont bring. Thats where PP’s value may come in.
Nobody values PP as high as we do. Thats bad cause I havent heard of what team is willing to give who for him. As soon as a player hits his 30"s his injuries start popping up and they just happen to take a little longer to cure. PP is entering that stage in his life.
If we can get our missing pieces and keep PP; then we are fine as long as he accepts he is just another piece of the puzzle and cuts down significantly on his control fo the game.
If we cannot get pieces assets that may take us to the next level,then we will have to deal PP for whatever assets we can get for him.
Right now we need a top 5, another PF, a top PG. Im assuming that with a new Coach, GG will provide the SF we will need to either compliment PP or take his place.
We need a new coach like we need air to stay alive.
I would also keep Ray just to see if he can provide a consistent outside shot. It wont hurt just to keep him.
We must get rid of Wally, Scal. Candy, Bassy, and probably Perk, if we can trade him for another serviceable 5. I think Perk, with his weight, wont be able to play with his Pfaciatis.
If we have to keep Scal and Wally and Kandy, that means we will have a similar season next year. Sorry for being so long on this. Peace

“If we could get Maggette, Kaman and Livingston from the Clips (all of whom are under-rated) for Paul and Bassy, I think we do it in a heartbeat.”

Why would the Clippers do this?

Answer, they won’t.

It’s time to forget about the “right” package for Pierce. There is no such package. Just trade him for what you can get and move on.

Jeff, I apologize for misinterpreting your discertation. I found it kind of long (same as mine, lol)and at my age, by the time I finished reading yours, I had some trouble remembering what I had read. Not your fault. I do believe that if we want to get out of this quagmire we’ve floundered in for 20 years now,we just cannot continue making the same mistakes. And our worse mistake we could make now is not to consider a trade involving PP which would make our team better than it is. We missed the C Paul trade (if that was a real option – Im not sure it was) because of our love affair with PP. WQe also had a love affair with Perk which for whichever reason it has gone sour. And some guys still think Wally can be an asset – which will never happen.
Al, not PP, is our best player now, the kind of which we havent had in 20 yrs. Thank you PP, for your memories and your effort, but the show must go on.

I really don’t hold DA accountable for most of this teams problems. The only big thing you can blame him for is the Raef-Walker deal, but that did eventually net us Tony Allen and Rajon Rondo (Jiri-Cavs deal). I myself would most likely have resigned Blount because he looked like he was blossuming into a top 10 center at the time. I thought the original Ricky Davis deal was well executed and he obtained him using next to nothing.

DA has accomplished what he set out to do, trade Walker, rebuild around Pierce, and obtain and develop young players through the draft/trades. I think the biggest problem was that the Celtics didn’t get bad enough. You can’t rebuild a team with players picked in the 13-25 range, which is what he has had. I think he’s done extremely well in identifying talent though. To get players like Delonte, TA, GG, Al, and Rondo with those picks is incredible when you really think about it.

Mark my words though, this team will be a force to reckon with next year. I think the bad luck we’ve had this year will turnout to be a blessing in disguise by netting us a top 2 pick. If we pick Oden, I believe you will see either him or Al packaged for KG. I will eat an Antoine Walker jersey if KG doesn’t get traded this summer. If we pick Durant, I think they will keep Al. Then they’ll trade GG, Ratliff, and anything else they have to, to round out the roster.

As for trading Pierce, they kept him and got those crappy picks because of it, so trading him now would be all for nought. But, if the Bulls offered us Deng and Gordon for him, or Deng, Tyrus, and the Knick pick, I’m sure DA would do it in a heart beat.

Vicirus, Sebastian Telfailure?

This team will not be a force next year, even with Durant/Oden. There are so many things that need to be done, and ownership just won’t do them. We are stuck with the status quo until we get an owner that wants to win (instead of market a product). People need to stop going to games. Stop watching this “team”. We need to make this painful for Wyc — so painful he sells the team. It can’t get any worse than the basketball hell we’ve been in for the last 15 years.

The only way this stops is with an empty Garden.

Great post Vicirus. I do think part of the problem is that the C’s just never got bad enough to turn things around. It may be pretty late to happen now, but it’s just as well we go through this lottery stuff now because it had to happen at some point. People have to realize that although this season has seemed like a nightmare it’s a great thing to finally not be ateam that has no chance at both playoff success or lottery success.

When you think about it, on any given year there is a relatively small amount of teams that are actually in contention for the championship. We all knew the C’s were not going to be part of that group of teams… so really based on what we knew about our team we should be happy (as many are) because a top draft pick is what we need to turn things around. Either through Oden/Durant or through trading the pick. A top draft pick is a huge asset of course.

Another thing I’ll echo is that it is ridiculous for people like Brickowski to act like it is over with Pierce and we should just try to bite on anything availiable to get rid of him. For crying out loud for the first time in the guy’s career he gets hurt, and the team struggles mightily without him, but now just because of that we find any deal to ship him out???

After suffering through all these recent years of mediocrity because we stuck with Pierce now you guys are ready to ship him out for nickles on the dollar? Now is the time more than ever you KEEP Pierce. Any trade we make to get better is useless if we get rid of our only star… the guy is still a top 15 talent and its not easy to get too many of those. It would be all for naught to get rid of Pierce when we finally got a top pick and a good chance to make something happen with other stars in the league.

Vicirus — do you really believe the following which you wrote — “The only big thing you can blame him for is the Raef-Walker deal”? So are you saying that you think the deal to obtain Wally was a good one? Or, are you saying the deal to acquire Theo and Telfair was a good one? Or, are you saying that the 5-year deal for Scalabrine was a good one? I could go on, but I think some of these also qualify as “big” mistakes by Ainge. We are nearing the end of his fourth year. In my opinion, this offseason should be his last chance.

The deal to get Wally was looked upon as a win before he got injured. Most of us would have taken anything to get Mark Blount out of town. Ricky Davis was seen as a negative influence on the young players. Marcus Banks was a whiner who thought he much better than he is (Phoenix is willing to give him away, and they need a backup point).

As for building around Pierce, he’s just not that type of player like a James, Bryant, Wade, McGrady etc. The Celtics should have shipped him to the Blazers two years ago for the chance to draft Chris Paul. Don’t make the same mistake this summer. Trade him for as high a pick as you can get and expiring contracts.

Ainge will almost certainly be staying. Doc’s a pretty high probability too to stay as well. If the team doesn’t make a big jump next year to at least 45 to 50 wins, they’ll be held accountable then. But I think they will become that much better team next year that we expected/hoped for this year.

Many of their young players have more value now than they did before this season and that should pay off well in off-season trading this summer. This is the trade Ainge needs to get right. Vicirus has it about right. Ainge’s trades to this point have been additions by subtraction and would have looked a lot better if Pierce and Szczerbiak had been healthy this year. But he has collected a lot of talented young players and he has to figure out who to keep and who to trade for what he needs. The draft pick will help with those decisions. The Celts are in a good position for the future and a quick turn around next year. If they get a top two lottery pick that would change to great position.

One overlooked issue is shoring up the defense this off-season. Danny’s moves — Raef, Wally, Dickau, Bassy — have all resulted in one-dimensional offensive players who kill us on D. And if you look at the best teams from the recent past — Detroit and San Antonio — they play solid to great defense. Part of it is Doc’s schemes, but part is personnel.

I really think the people who think we can win a title with Pierce are thinking with their hearts, not their heads. And it’s not just the desire to see Pierce win in Boston, it’s the idea that Pierce should be a Celtic his entire career that is keeping fans from looking at the situation objectively.

The fact is, Ainge/the owners are the ones who have created this difficult situation by not choosing to either fully rebuild or do everything they can to win. So Ainge continues to make the team younger as Pierce gets older.

If we were going to win with Pierce the process should have started earlier, when he was say, 26. Then he would be entering his peak as we were becoming a better team. Now he will be leaving his peak or at the end of it when we can make enough moves to be a good team.

I saw we wait and see what pick we get. I’m not depending on Durant or Oden at all, because I realize it has always been about luck. I’m excited about just having a low lottery pick again.

Brickowski, you say you’re now in the “get anything we can” mindset regarding a Pierce trade. But wasn’t that an inevitability when the owners/Ainge decided to extend Pierce at the super-max instead of dealing him a season ago?

Brick, I would think that there would be a big difference in the team’ standing if you traded for Ray Allen to go with Pierce and Al versus having a team without Pierce but with a Johnson/Kirilenko type & this year’s draft pick. I would think PP/Allen & Al would win more. Neither one may get as far as we want but that may be the reality of the situation. Plus I’m not sure you can judge Paul correctly right now as he’s clearly not fully recovered health wise.

Paul has to learn to use his teammates.

I’m very upset watching the games that he still tries to shoulder the load and not look for them.

I’m tires of seeing him go 1 on 1 or 1 on 3 with people. I would have thought that he learn by sitting on the bench and watching that he can utilize everyone.

Reading a recent clip from Kobe he has learned that he can’t do it alone and he said that Paul has to learn to use his teammates and have trust in them.

In my opinion if Paul can’t figure this out, then we have no choice but to trade him and bring in a capable veteran at the Point and Forward positions.

I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Jefferson, Green, Rondo and Gomes, and we have seen what West and Allen can bring.

The key is having Paul “understand who is around him” and not take on the world.

In some ways Pierce is forced to take on the world because the offense is designed to run through him. Also, he turns them into a halfcourt team by default because he runs the floor so infrequently.

It has to change. They have to move on. The big extension for Pierce was just another mistake in the long series of mistakes that Grousbeck and Ainge have made.

If the keep Pierce and then acquire a player like Ray Allen they will be rebuilding again in 4-5 years when both of those players are 35 years old or close to it. It’s going to be perpetual rebuilding with nothing to show for it, not even a playioff series win. Of course Pierce will become the Celtics’ all-time leading scorer and there will be a ton of PR crap around that. It’s what you do to sell tickets when you have a 35 win team.

Also all you Oden critics.He broke his right wrist this season(He is right handed).He has been using his left hand predominatly even his free throws thiss season.It is affecting his numbers now but it sure is going to help him when he get’s in the pro’s.Put him on this team and he solidifies are front line from the get go I’ll take that.

  Agree with Brick on Oden. Have watched parts of 3 of his games. He is far from a dominant offensive player at college level and what offense he has shown so far won’t translate into the NBA where he is playing against guys his size. His defence is his forte, and while he looked great if guys took the ball to him, when other quick players put the ball on the floor and headed for the hoop, he appeared very slowfooted. His rebounding was “ho-hum”.

   I have seen less of Durant, but was a lot more impressed. Durant appears to be the MJordan form of super quick athlete. If you are quicker then everyone else, all will work out well. And quickness cannot be taught.

Good article, Jeff. Though it looks like you and Tommy Heinsohn took the same math class. ;)

Red Auerbach has been universally considered a legend because of his success in building a dynasty. His drafting record includes more misses than hits, but he too was limited to drafting late. His drafting successes, to include Bob Cousy by default, and Tommy etc. because of “territorial rights” (don’t forget Bird) were good hits but even he would admit that “I’d rather be lucky than good”.

Red also saw the value in the talents of Len Bias and Reggie Lewis. Should Red be criticised because Len Bias never got to play for the Celtics or that Reggie Lewis’s career and life were cut short? Why is Danny then suddenly responsible for the injuries to Pierce, Perk, Delonte, Wally and Tony Allen that have so devastated this franchise? Even Red was rewarded with a high draft pick when the Celtics underperformed. Perhaps we’ll also be good or lucky when the ping pong balls drop making Danny even a bigger “scapegoat” or genius as time will tell.

Danny needed to trade Wallker because of Walker’s open defiance to Danny in resisting fast break basketball, in staying on the perimeter instead of inside and in calling the Celtic’s HIS and Pierce’s team.

The real difference between Red and Danny has been “coaching” and “teaching” with Clifford Ray having been Danny’s only success story in the coaching/teaching ranks.

Trade Pierce. Absolutely but only if you get FAIR VALUE and not for $.25/on the dollar!

Where Red had his genius was in trades, even at the expense of trading “stars” (i.e., Bill Russel acquisition). He also had the wisdom NOT to trade aging talent for 25 cents on the dollar. He kept the nucleus of the “big three” together even when he recognized that father time was eroding their effectiveness.

I dislike trading promising youth for aging “stars” because history is replete with examples of injuries curtailing productive careers of aging stars (Larry Bird as a prime example).

Trading PP makes no sense. This is a players league and you need TALENT. PP is a TALENT!!!! We need at least one good vet, preferably a big to go with PP.

This team with everyone healthy should have been a 35-42 win team. No team can withstand the injuries we’ve had. Hell the Heat were the World Champions and are under 500 because Shaq was out 29 games. Where would they be without both Shaq and Wade. I’m not comparing our injured players with Shaq and Wade only that are arguable our top 4 players have missed significant time (PP, Wally, TA, Al, plus Perk and Scal and Theo). I’ve said before this team cannot stand injuries.

Before we do anything with PP we need to see where we are in the Draft and who’s is available. Greg Oden by himself will turn this team into a playoff team and possibly higher.

We do have assets to trade and some of them are getting added PT that may make them more valuable to other teams. I’m not ready to give up just yet. Rebuilding takes time.

I would like to see Doc canned. He does have the team playing hard, but effort without results are meaningless. I see no defensive concept and the same stupid mistakes made over and over. We need someone who can eliminate the stupid mistakes. Things like feeding the post from the top of the key – turnovers are killing this team. Not talking on defense. Missing rotations. I watch us press and then leave an easy outlet pass to beat the press.

Greenkite71 and vinnie – I do stand by my comment that the only big thing you can blame DA for is the Raef-Walker deal. The Wally deal was a slam dunk at the time. To get rid of Blount and get anything of value was amazing, but to do it and get back a past allstar (although overpaid with an injury history) and a 1st round pick is incredible. If Wally had played this year like he did last year (missing 20 or so games w/ a 17 PER) it would have been totally one-sided.

As for the “Telfailure” trade, it is hard to judge how good/bad that trade is just 50 games in. Everyone said Roy and Foye were the most NBA ready players in that draft so it should be of no surprise that they are playing the way they are. I think long term though, DA felt that getting rid of Raef was worth giving up players of their calliber (we shall see). Everyone forgets though, the rest of the equation is what happens with Ratliff. He will have far and away the most valuable expiring contract in the NBA next season and there is a 0% chance that we are even in the discussion for a KG, AI or Gasol without him. There is no way another team would have taken Raef, let alone Wally (or Blount if you didn’t like that trade) for an allstar. DA has been setting up an offseason like this one for his whole tenure as GM. Now do I think it took too long? Yes, but I am happy with the future outlook of this team because I believe I see the method to Danny’s madness.

As for the Scal deal, please, if you held every GM accountable for a deal that was 1M or so too much and a year or so too long, 30 of them would be out of jobs. I don’t think a deal worth 2/3s the MLE would have gotten this team a player that would have given us anything but 1 or 2 more wins a season than Scal does. Even a team that is run as well as Phoenix makes mistakes (Banks says hello).

Re Vicirus; I guess you also believe that it’s O.K. for the “tail” to wag the dog? In retrospect you might be right about the Raef/Walker deal but let’s be fair and recognize the situation that Danny was in.

Open defiance by any player to a system of play designed for a team (i.e. fast break basketball) amounts to open rebellion against authority. Who is running the show, the player or the GM?

At the time of the trade the Dallas offer was the only deal on the table. Except for Pierce and Walker, no other player had trade value. Since Walker was the “cancer” and not Pierce, he had to go even at the expense of putting him on waivers. In retrospect that could have been Danny’s best option.

All trades have the benefit of medical advice and I assume the Walker/Raef trade did as well. We needed size and inside scoring and had Raef played as well as he had years earlier the trade would have been great. It was a calculated risk that misfired. Yet consider the desperate need to rid itself of Walker and the potential risk/reward if Reaf were healthy and returned to form.

Apart from the Walker rebellion, our team was aging and had little chance of improving. Change was necessary.

Hindsight always makes one appear to be a genius but it takes courage to take calculated risks. Indiana traded Artest in hopes of securing fair trade value. When their trading “chip” jumped ship, in retrospect the Artest trade was a bad decision. The Walker deal was necessary and like the Artest deal, a calculated risk that failed.

 Drastic times require drastic action, some good, some not but the mark of greatness is measured by the final result and not by the bumps along the way! This draft and trading deals that follow will more accurately measure Danny’s stewardship!

moskqq – I think you may have missed my prior post. I was just responding to others who said that DA had made numerous “big” mistakes, and I was trying to say the only one that you could really classify as a big mistake in retrospect was the Raef-Walker trade. At the time, I merely thought that it was a poor trade. Saying it was a “calculated trade that misfired” is a massive understatement in my humble opinion.

Obviously we needed to jettison Walker, but taking Raef in return was a big mistake. He was coming off a season in which he started 43 games, and put up stats of 9.3 4.8 0.8. This is with 6 years left on his deal. Most people would tell you that the downside of the deal far outweighed the upside. Do I think Walker needed to be moved? Yes, but not for what we got in return. If you have to deal with an unhappy star player for a few more weeks, or take less talent with shorter contracts you do it. Worse case scenario, you deactivate him and trade him for an expiring contract. Ainge just couldn’t bear with the public backlash of giving him away for nothing, so he took the deal on the table. As the Vince Carter trade showed, sometimes receiving nothing in return is worth more than taking a long contract.

Re Vicirus; Your point is well taken and in retrospect you are more correct than I was. Raef was injured at the time but I assume that medical advice suggested that he would eventually recover or that further surgery could correct what additional time wouldn’t. At least I hope that was the prevailing medical opinion.

A similar medical opinion could have been made about Jefferson and his slow recovery last year. In that instance additional surgery did achieve what time alone couldn’t. Win some, lose some!

I would go for Jinlian, an athletic 7 footer. We need a big guy who has a perimeter game, is quick and can handle the ball. He is a poor man’s Kevin Durant, only bigger. I would rather take a chance on him than Brandon Wright, who to me is destined to be a low post inside player, who will not complement Al Jeff’s game. We need to start building around Al, not Paul.

Ainge’s biggest mistake was not the Walker trade. That was necessary, and Raef was the most he could get for him. HIs biggest mistake is his most recent trade, Brandon Roy/Rudy Gay for Sebastian Telfair. Not knowing that Rondo would still be available at 21 makes no difference. We are still starting West at PG, not Rondo. West did pretty well last year at PG. It was a huge misjudgment on Ainge’s part. Both Roy and Gay have so much more upside than Telfair. Danny exaggerated the league change in rules to justify this poor decision. I hated it when he made the trade, and still get upset thinking about it. It was the turning point in my transition from “Ainge can do no wrong” to “Does Ainge really have a plan?” philosophy.