Long-Term/Short Term
by BillfromBoston on Mar 13, 2007 8:10 AM EDT
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PrintThings to think on entering this offseason
Long-Term thinking for this Celtics team while maintaining a short-term dividend has been the gist of every message board poster for this team. The draft has been the major focus, direction has come into question, and the draft has been debated and will continue to grow in fervor. Some People are still debating whether or not trading Paul Pierce is the smart long-term decision, incidentally coinciding with Pierces return, which has sprung everyone else game even while his is rusty.
It seems that the argument for all Celtics fans is about time lines. It’s clear that the team has some talent, but its not clear how great that talent may be. There are the factors of Pierce’s age to weigh against the youth’s potential for certain, but he’s proven to be such a difference maker for ALL the player on the team. Even though Pierce may be turning 30, his contract value shouldn’t exceed his production value for quite some time, and that has to factor into people’s thinking when assessing how the organization is going to analyze there own short â€"term/long-term projections.
Consider Pierce's playing value on his NEXT contract. Think about a 34 year old Pierce re-upping for about 7 million a year while sliding into the backseat of the Jefferson/Green run Celtics. He is still going to be a productive player, say 17 pts, 7brds 4asts...his passing and other secondary skills will be more valuable and he'll harness them as his scoring load is reduced and ability to play on-ball diminished. Pierce is capable of playing off of others for much longer than he’s capable of being the focal point, and that should extend out his worth substantially as a team leader and contributor.
I'd say building with Pierce as the Celtics’ 3rd best player is about 5 years and that doesn't count the draft pick of this year or its requisite trade value...Pierce as 4th best player? 6 or 7 years is not hard to imagine. Guys are playing longer and the best players who approach the game with equal aggression each and every year become the longest standing players. Pierce can play quality ball until he's 37-38 years old by posting, going to the line with up fakes, and simply crashing the glass and making plays OFF of others...
The only question in my mind is what does the team do if the pick is outside the top 2? Trading for one of KG, JO, and Pau is feasible with our loose contracts and the draft pick. But, does the team want to part with major prospects? Obviously Jefferson is not in play, but the pick, Gerald Green and Rajon Rondo probably look enticing to a few, as do Gomes and West. It could take 3 of those players to land KG or JO-Bird wont let Danny have him cheap-Pau is feasible with less, say West and Green plus the pick and I can't say that's worth it considering the pick plus Jefferson and Green is probably better than Jefferson plus Pau in the near future...
Any trade that happens is going to be dependant on the draft pick the team holds. A selection of Oden or Durant allows the team to make a lesser trade to acquire a quality vet. There are so many past All Stars on the market this year it'll be a buyers market for some of these guys, especially for the hold outs. Who think they’ll get a desperate offer for their player and end up taking less.
Pau could easily stay in Memphis, with Chauncey’s talk of joining up and the sure-fire prospect of adding a top 2 pick themselves could easily give Jerry West the ammo he needs to keep Pau content as well. But, his availability will stall negotiations with other teams around the league who will be burning up the wires from April onward trying to get a battle plan ready full of contingencies. With only 8-12 teams even having an arguable compensation package for the top vets available, the more surfing is done the more chance a team gets left short-selling.
Getting Oden/Durant gives the team options that don't include one of Rondo/Green which makes things much nicer from a fans perspective. Jason Kidd's as good as in LA, but Bibby should be at the bottom of the totem pole for trade acquisitions, amazing when you consider his past performance and the situations surrounding this season for the Kings. There are some outlying point guards who may be available, but don’t expect Chauncey Billups name to come around Boston, so picking up an “impact†player here isn’t tremendous. Teams will treat it like that, Billups will be courted heavily, but Kidd is a niche fit now, at 34 he’s looking to go to a team that’s in a position to win now.
Having to trade for a vet without getting Oden/Durant makes the urgency to consider a mega-trade for KG/JO/Pau more probable. The team has been scouting bigs in this draft intently, as has every other team smart enough to know that a tandem front court of skill and size puts most any team above two-thirds of the rest. It can be an end-game move toward establishing cornerstones for the long-hall.
But, the vet bigs have the same type of thing going for them that Pierce does in terms of there ability to age gracefully and contribute deeper into there careers then just there prime. Pau is young at 26, so swan songs aren't in order there. But KG is 31 going into next season and I still expect him to be rebounding, defending, and passing the ball well past his 35th birthday.
JO will shotblock and hit jumpers for any team he plays for until he hangs 'em up. Less wear, less injuries when on a team with 2 other stars. This is what you get from potential HoF players. You see it all the time. The best find a way to contribute...and 20 million dollar salaries go away before the skills do. Re-signing players like this to 3 year extentions to enjoy those Shaq and Reggie days is always a good thing.
Keeping Pierce should be a clear no-brainer. But pleasing Pierce and settling on a decision will be the toughest task of this offseason.
I assure you that some decision will be made and all the options point to a brighter future going forward through this off season and into the next. Even if you don't understand the NBA Trade Market very well the shear number of quality vets available and the relative paucity of teams that have the available resources to trade for them should be enough to recognize the Celtics position.
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haha yr pierce effective as he ages theory is pretty cute especially when you consider that there are no good 35 y/o wing players in the league, none. hah.
by NBAspaceLAZER3000 on Mar 13, 2007 9:43 AM EDT reply actions
I like the option where we get to trade our pick if it’s not a top 2.
I’d be surprised to see Pau Gasol get traded. If you are Memphis, just landed Oden and can move Gasol to the PF position, he is locked for the next 4-5 years, you have got HWarryck, RGuy comming along, why would you trade him?
On the other hand KG might be available for the right price, but how can we mustard 22million? unless Minni takes both, Wally and Theo..I can’t see it matching.
..JOneal is probably the trade we can make…I am not sure how many yrs he’s got left on his contract. I’ll be sad giving up a high pick for a 2yr cameo….
Note: Past ALL-Stars means, their best years are behind then. Having said that, it doesn’t mean they can’t contribute significantly…just don’t over pay…
How many FREE AGENTS are available in this class of “past all stars”?
A freebie is always more palatable then a trade.
Pierce plays 2 guard or small forward. Those are the EASIEST of all positions in the NBA to replace. Center being the hardest and (A good) Point Guard next hardest. Anyone who takes as many shots as Pierce will score a lot. There are reasons he didn’t make the top 20 list.
by Wilt on Mar 13, 2007 11:11 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t know how you can say keeping Pierce is a no Brainer. he has not gotten to the playoffs without Antoine Walker yet. He is the leader of a team that has 2nd worst record in the NBA, and that would be no better than fighting for the 8th seed if He’d not missed any games. Depending on what our draft situation turns out , You gotta keep your options open. Putting a deal together for Lamar Odom, Kirilenko or J O’Neil might be a smart thing. All options are on the table this year. Its too late for a 5 year plan.
NBAspaceLAZER3000:
I seem to remember MJ and reggie miller as effective aging wings… A shell of who they were when they were younger – but still effective. Piece’s rebounding is not built on his athleticism – but rather his smarts and positioning, and his post skills/shooting will still be valuable – though I don’t believe he will be able to create his own off the dribble…
Its an interesting view on the long term… something I believe in. The question is will pierce? I am happy going into next season without any major upgrades / trades (wait until the deadline next yr). I see some good things in this team as we run down the stretch. I want to hold on to green, telfair and rondo. If its less than #2, bring in a young that can play some D… …trade down and take noah – in the process could we move wallys contract?
SO many directions for this team to succeed – I think the chips are falling into place – and its just a matter of how we play them. Thats what makes this season so exciting to me — there is more than one way we can build a champion here.
Jermaine O’Neal would be a great complement to Jefferson’s game. His face up jumper is money, and that’s what we need alongside AJ to give him room to operate on the blocks. We would absolutely OWN the backboards too because they’re both excellent rebounders. I wonder what it would take to pry him from Indiana?
Delonte, Ratliff, Gomes and a 1st?
Green, Gomes and Ratliff?
Wally, Green, Gomes and Telfair?
I forget if JO is on his 3rd extension yet or not, which means he might be making 18-20 million right now. I’m too lazy to look it up. But I think we can put together a package enticing enough for Indy to bite. Gerald Green is a nice player and all, but a 7 foot, shot blocking center he is not.
I agree with VtBill, in that keeping Paul is far from a no-brainer…As a matter of fact, I’m leaning toward him being the single-most viable chip that Danny is holding…Think youth and speed!!!
by BoundingRounder on Mar 13, 2007 12:52 PM EDT reply actions
We talk like we had the power to make decisions in here for the good of the team. Well written article, EricW. We can only hope that the brass make some right moves. They will keep their options open as time goes by and they will consider having Plans A, B,C,and D. We can only hope they will make the right decisions and our team will rise from the levels of mediocrity in which it has wallowed for the last 20 years. Thats all we can do; hope. Lets not lose it cause thats the only thing we have going for us.
If only the home office had a suggestion box where we could all mail in our thoughts, suggestions and recommendations. Arte we sure they dont have it? peace.
If Pierce is still our 3rd best player in 5 years, we’re in a lot of trouble.
At any rate, Pierce in 5 years will be averaging closer to 12pts 4rebs and 2asts.
He won’t have the ball a lot so he won’t get to the line and get easy points that way. He also won’t have the ball alot to rack up assists. (Even if he does have the ball, defenses will most likely play him on one on thus not allowing passes to open teammates). Paul’s rebounding will go down tremendously since Al and (Oden or whomever we draft will be here to rack up the boards).
Paul’s been averaging less than his season average of 6.3 per game for 3 months now (about 5 per game since November where he grabbed 8.5 per game).
VT Bill said:
I don’t know how you can say keeping Pierce is a no Brainer. he has not gotten to the playoffs without Antoine Walker yet.
I guess you forgot about 2004 when Pierce dragged the team to the playoffs ‘without’ Antoine. :-\ I guess that kills your argument. The haters never cease to amaze me.
O’Neal, Allen, Lewis, and maybe Gasol are the ones that Id REALLY like to see Ainge go after if they are available.
by ucn33 on Mar 13, 2007 1:41 PM EDT reply actions
JO has an option this summer, he and PP have publicly mused about playing together, and things in Indy are looking very shaky. The big concern for me about JO is how many games you’ll actually get out of him.
If we draft Oden I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jefferson dangled for KG – short term Oden and KG are a better frontline than Oden and Jefferson – because of KGs defense and ability to shoot mid range Js. I could see JO too in this case, but only if Wally was the matching contract and probably for one less draft pick, because JO is just not at KGs level.
However if we end up with Durant – we commit to a longer term perspective – we’ll be a threat in the playoffs sooner, but we won’t be title contenders as fast.
A lot depends on how fast Rondo can be a good enough PG or if we can find a short term solution that still allows Rondo to develop.
My point about JO’s situation is that while Bird may not want to give him up cheap – he may be forced to. JO could for example opt out and go sign in Orlando, who could play JO and Howard in the PF and C spots and use Battie as backup. They’ll have a max contract worth of space under the cap. (Granted JO would be giving up money – my whole theory is he wants to go some place else after having Indy not work out for so many years. Plus the lack of tax in FLA would make up a big chunk of the loss. Not sure if anyone else has the cap space to sign JO as a FA.)
Bankshot said: “I guess you forgot about 2004 when Pierce dragged the team to the playoffs ‘without’ Antoine. smilies/undecided.gif I guess that kills your argument. The haters never cease to amaze me.”
Uhh dude the Celtics lost 5 straight games ending the season and “clinched” a playoff spot because the other teams lost “more”. They backed their way into the playoffs, Pierce didn’t drag them there. They lost into the playoffs in 2004 and the Pacers ate us up for breakfast without breaking a sweat.
That team was pretty bad, even with Pierce they had gone 3-17 through Jan and Feb. Sure 2-22 is bad without Pierce. Losing 18 games in a row is bad too. But 3-17 WITH Pierce is pretty awful.
look at the record with Pierce versus without to get a feel for the marginal difference Pierce makes. The fact that with Pierce we’re fighting for the eight spot, and without we’re competing for the worst record in the league IS FREAKING HUGE.
One more player who can make the team that much “marginally” better would put us near the top of the east.
i wouldnt say keeping paul is a no-brainer but i dont move him for anything less than a top flight pg or a top flight big man. short of that i hold on to him. i just dont see many of those available in trade right now that wed have a big shot at.
by bucknersrevenge on Mar 13, 2007 2:32 PM EDT reply actions
What do folks think about blowing Chauncey/Detroit out of the water for Billups a la Ben Wallace? Pull a sign and trade, giving Chauncey a 4-year, $55-$60 million deal in exchange for Theo, Rondo, a 2008 first rounder and maybe Gomes or Perk (depending on who we draft). That’s a bunch of dough for Chauncey, but it makes the C’s contenders for the next 3-4 years, especially if we can get Oden or Durant. We’d probably have to get rid of Wally for some expiring contracts to make this work in order to re-sign Big Al, Delonte, Gomes and Tony though (or at least bite the bullet with a huge tax for one year). That would give us some nice all-star talent with plenty of leftover youth to build on when Chauncey and Paul start to decline.
I’d love to see Chauncy get back in Green. We should shoot to make it happen.
Baron Davis is a bit younger though, and might also be an intriguing option. I’m not sure of his contract status but he was mentioned earlier.
Also, Stackhouse is available. I’d almost rather save the cap room on Pierce, trade him and pick up Stack as a scorer / leader / veteran for a quarter the price. Spending so much on a wing (despite how good Pierce is) simply hurts our chances at landing impact players at the 1 and 5.
LB3533, your evaluation of Paul Pierce is pretty weak. To focus on his rebounding in the last three months pretty much makes your comments not worth responding to.
But simply put, Pierce is unquestionably a top twenty player and as others know his value goes well beyond scoring. He is always improving almost all parts of his game. How he played during the six games before the injury, when for a brief period he did not have to carry the team all by himself, is a lot more indicative of what he can do as players develop around him than his current play which still has lifted the team dramatically even without Szczerbiak. The Celtics will almost certainly not get enough in a trade to make it worthwhile trading him. He won’t be at full strength until next year, but his playing prime should go on until at least age 35. Go take a look at the six games before his injury (and he played hurt for at least the last few of this stretch) – 27.7 pts, 7.7 reb, 5.5 asst, 48% fg, 89 ft%.
by SteveZ from Edgemont on Mar 13, 2007 7:24 PM EDT reply actions
I believe Jermaine has a players option this year. si a trade would have to wait on his opting in or out in Indy. It would be nice to keep pierce saround we could never replace the veteran qualities he has down the road no matter his production. Of course we need luck in the draft and a could trade to shore up our scoring rebounding and efenseive option(one player. especially at the point and at center. I would remain positive if we ended up with the fifth pick. that pick and Wally could do wonders for our roster. I would really keep green and Jefferson at all cost even as a deal breaker for ssome of the names mentioned above as seasoned vets.
by Freeease1 on Mar 13, 2007 7:58 PM EDT reply actions
mcpu40 said:
Makes sense, ERIC WEISS, if you read this, hit us with the vast list of all stars on the market this off-season…I need it.
———————————————————————————————————-
I wrote this list in the last article I posted:
KG/JO/Pau/Marion/Lewis/Allen/Kidd/Carter/Bibby…now there are rumors of Billups and Baron possibly being in the mix, Brad Miller and Ron Artest may be added to that list as well…so I count 9 verified players who should be moving on and 4 other valuable players as a possability…more to come most likely as this offseason will be quite busy…
I beg to differ on keeping Pierce to be a no brainer. I think last year Chicago would have given Deng, a lottery first round pick, and filler for Pierce. I would have done the deal. Nothing against Pierce, great career, etc. However, I would take Deng over Pierce from this point forward for the next 8 years.
Conceivably, one could be looking at a front court of Big Al, Oden, Deng for the next 8 to 10 years. That would be a heck of a front court for years to come.
It all adds up on what you could get for Pierce. If the right deal comes along and I can get young All Star talent for Pierce, I do the deal.
by bceltfan on Mar 13, 2007 8:35 PM EDT reply actions
You would take Deng over Pierce? For once, I can say that Im honestly happy Ainge is GM.
by ucn33 on Mar 13, 2007 10:18 PM EDT reply actions
If I got Deng, plus a #1 lottery pick (last year or this year) I absolutely do the deal!
We would have had Deng who is a notch below Pierce, plus we could have had Aldridge who went off against Denver tonight with 24 points, 17 rebounds and 4 blocks!
Oh, but I forgot, people didn’t like Aldridge because he reminded some of Blount. I was posting well before the draft last year: Aldridge will be an All Star in this league.
So I would have been as happy as a pig in slop with Aldridge/Deng, or who knows how the ping pong balls fly this year but theoretically the Bulls could land Oden or Durant if the Knicks miss out on the playoffs.
Mark my words, judge the career of Pierce and Deng from last year through the next 8 years. Already (due to Pierce’s injuries) Deng has had a better year when you factor in being healthy, all around game including defense. Pierce has only played in 38 games, Deng 65 this year. Five years from now, we would have been happy to have made the deal: Deng, #1 lottery pick, filler.
by bceltfan on Mar 13, 2007 10:45 PM EDT reply actions
Bcceltfan, you may be a seer and you may have been one last year as well. If only Celtics mangement had known your vision. But it doesn’t really matter what in foresight or hindsight the Celts could have gotten for Pierce last year. Another high draft choice for Pierce is not what’s needed now, nor is what Chicago or anyone would have given for Pierce then important either.
His veteran leadership and his veteran talents are invaluable now as long as he buys into the team’s direction. With his performance this year limited by his injury, adding another year in age and his contract, teams will probably not for give full value for him right now (rightly or wrongly).
by SteveZ from Edgemont on Mar 14, 2007 12:55 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t think Strainge will move Pierce. If we end up either #1 or 2, he will draft accordingly and only a small trade will be made, if that. If we end up out of the top two, he will try to trade the pick for vet help but won’t be as successful as we want. If he trades the pick I want Wally gone too and it probably won’t happen. Two other options to consider are that Strainge just loves draft picks as they are safe and he buys himself time with the developmental process. So he just makes the pick and keeps it in that scenario. The last option is that I read somewhere that someone mentioned if we get Oden, Strainge could deal Jefferson to Minny for Garnett. Garnett, Paul and Oden for a title run now and hopefully in the future with Oden too.
Steven Z- On Pierce’s leadership, I think that has been somewhat a bust and I don’t blame Pierce for that. Last year this team consistently defered to Pierce especially late in games. Big Al blossomed when Pierce was gone, probably doesn’t do that with Pierce playing 40 min. a game, at least not to the extent he has.
Philly got rid of 2 Hall of Famers (Iverson/Webber). They are a better team now than they have been for years and years with Iverson. Others on that team are stepping up. The Bulls last year were a vast success and the their team too found their own identity. I’m not worried about the Cs without Pierce assuming we get talent for him.
by bceltfan on Mar 14, 2007 8:44 AM EDT reply actions
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