Graphical Look At Percentages

Jeff nice work, Does anyone think the Celtics management will trade their draft pick after the lottery drawing if they come in 3rd in the lottery with Oden and Durant in the draft. Or if Durant comes out and Oden doesn’t or vice versa will the celtics do the same, trade the second lottery pick for a experienced player from another team. Thanks

Nothing like a good pie chart to start the day — how many other bloggers both know their Shakespeare and are a fiend with Excel?

Let’s suppose that we do get the #3-5 pick, which we see is much more likely than the #1-2 pick. Let’s also suppose that McHale and Bird demand too high a price for KG and JO to make trading a reasonable option. All year I’ve been assuming that it will be crucial to use this year’s draft to acquire a true big man, since it’s so rare to have a such a high pick and we so desperately need size. If we don’t get a decent big man this year, I’m afraid it will be years before we get another shot at one. But, aside from Oden and Durant, all the potential college big men I’ve seen have glaring weaknesses. Noah and Horford look to me like they can be solid NBA defenders/rebounders but offer very little offensively except garbage hoops. Hawes is very impressive offensively but lacks the strength and quickness to be an effective NBA defender. As already discussed on this blog, Brandan Wright plays too soft and Hibbert doesn’t look like a significant improvement over Perk. And, while I haven’t seen Splitter, his back problems and potential contractual complications may make him too risky a pick, regardless of his skill level. The only guy I’ve seen who looks to me like a potential NBA star on both ends of the court is Julian Wright, but he’s only 6’8", although he has a huge wing span. Which brings me to my question: In today’s NBA, can a 6’8" guy with a huge wing span who plays hard and has a high basketball IQ be an effective power forward? In other words, would a lineup consisting of an undersized center in Jefferson, and undersized power forward in Julian Wright, and undersized small forward in Pierce, an undersized point guard in Rondo, and possibly an undersized shooting guard in West (if Allen can’t make a comeback) be an effective starting unit, or would they be dominated by bigger teams? Could we go with that starting unit against small and midsized teams, and against big teams put Perk at center with Wright at small forward and Pierce at shooting guard? Or do we absolutely have to acquire a true big man this summer regardless of his flaws?

Disclaimer: Once again, this all assumes we don’t get #1-2, and a reasonable trade for KG or JO isn’t available.

  I still like Hibbard! Have only seen twice but he dominated both times. Looked better then Oden if fact. Quite a bit better. We really don’t need another high scoring post player, but really do need the defensive intimidation. Either Oden or Hibbard will give us that.

  Oops! Almost forget Jeff! Very nice job on the graphic displays and I’m sure it was a LOT of work.

Chad Ford said that if Durant and Oden don’t declare, the C’s and Griz will have to be stopped from organizational suicide.

Going to start the conspiracy talk now.

If Charlotte finishes with the third worst record, I guarantee that the NBA will fix it so that Jordan gets one of the top two picks!

Jeff, can you do a pie chart graphically then and Rurante chances that Rivers will be coaching the team next year? That’s more relevant to the success of the team than their drafting position.

As for the draft, nothing in the NCAA tournament has altered my view that after Oden and Durant, the best players in this draft are Julian Wright and Tiago Splitter. Brandon Rush is also better than I thought he was. Noah has disappointed me— he does not have an NBA offensive game— and I fear that Brandan Wright is the second coming of Marvin Williams. As for Acie Law, he’s the same player as Alan Ray, so why bother? I also think that Durant has been exposed as a skilled but immature perimeter player. I’d easily take Oden over him.

Sorry Had a little trouble using my laptop, which sometimes displaces text. The first sentence above should read “…graphically depicting the chances that Rivers…”

Say we get the 4th pick. Am I the only one who thinks Noah will help right away. Sure, he’s not Oden or Durant but he’s 7’ feet and mobil. Wouldn’t he be the choice to cover Nowitzki or Wallace in Detroit. Someone with high energy who can block shots, pass, move his feet and play defense. He has played three years of college ball.

Let’s go on Oscar Gamble premise that we draft 3rd or 4th and JO and Garnett aren’t available.
Who else would you give up, for the rights to Wright or Noah?

My apologies on the previous post.

 Who could you get, in a trade, for Wright or Noah?

What would be considered equal value for Wright or Noah?

No your not the only one who think Noah would help right away. I think Noah will help right away second only to Oden. Talk like that will bring some hate here but Noah is a PERFECT fit imho and would play 30 minutes next to Al and put up 12/12, 2 blocks, 2 steals and few to’s. Now, if I had to pick a top five, I would have him 5th, after Oden, Durant, Splitter, and Julian Wright, but i think Noah helps the 2nd most right away, but if on another team never does much at all, not a good offensive player, (but BOY can he run the floor and pass!), but he has everything we need here

I think Noah could also help right away. Put him in as the starting 5. His defense, rebounding, and energy alone would help this team. His offense is not great, but we usually don’t have a problem scoring. We need a defensive minded big man with energy. So while obviously Oden and Durant are the top 2, if we ended up with Noah I would still be happy. I just don’t think we need anymore 6’6"-6’9" undersized forwards. We already have Pierce, Wally, Green, Gomes, Tony Allen to fill those positions nicely. Our focus should be a pg or C.

   It looks like Griz have about a 42% chance of getting one of the top2 and Celts have about a 35. But the odds of getting the 3rd after somebody else has the top 2 picks has got to be different than listed. the Griz can get no worse than 4th, and after the top 2 picks have been made their chance of getting the 3rd pick must be better than 17. Clearly their chance of getting the 4th pick after the other 3 picks have been made is 100%. Nobody really cares whats after the top 2, but there is some talent. I’d assume Ainge will peddle the pick and listen to offers for any of the picks. Many of these lottery picks are not making anyone too excited. Noah, McRoberts, Brandon Wright, all look to be a long way from NBA ready. Noah particularly has zero offense, and limited muscle. McRoberts is a 6-11 Mike Dunleavy, another PG wannabe. And Brandon Wright needs about 30 lbs and 2 years of growth. But Horsford, Julian Wright, and also Green and Hibbert from GTown are all players. Hibbert has a long way to go, but he impressed me during the BC game.

IMHO Hibbert is Perk all over again, just a little bigger. Did BC have anyone on the floor over 6’7"?

Ive said it since we were about 9 games into our losing streak and i continue to say it almost once or twice a day. The Celtics will be picking number 4 in this years draft.

Does it really matter what pick we get in the draft, Ainge will screw it up anyway. How does he still have a job???

With the 32nd pick, the Boston Celtics select?

What’s his wingspan?

If you move Ryan Gomes, How about Glen Davis?

Jeff, It’s good to see that you’re as beserk as I am about this lottery business…
I think three things are at least interesting as concerns this lottery…
1. Only two teams with the worst record have picked first since 1990: Cleveland, 03, and Orlando, 04…that’s 2 out of 16 years!!!
2. If, per chance, a fella or fellette were into praying, pray first that we win it all, or if that’s impossible, then Memphis (worst record?) wins it all. If the worst team wins, their balls are no longer viable in the lotto…thus if Memphis were to win, our chances at two become 199/750, where as, if the fifth worst team were to win, our chances at the second pick then becomes 199/912…I’ll let you guys do the math, but at least it’s easy to see that on the second draw, there would be an additional 162 different losing combinations available…
And thirdly, a team can drop a maximum of three spots in the draft, i. e., 1 can drop to four and 2 to 5, and 3 to 6 etc…that’s why it’s of utmost importance that we don’t go hog-wild and blow passed the tanking Charlottes of the world…The fates have seen to it that we legitimately have fallen to the second worst winning percentage in basketball…It is only befitting that we make sure we remain there now that the competition has for all intents and purposes extinquished of natural causes…Let the “Tinkering” continue…or, as the Bard said in Troilus and Cressida, “Perseverance keeps thine honor bright; To have done is to hang quite out of fashion like a rusty mail in monumental mockery…” We must stay the course…What was once B’ball has metamorphosed: It is now Chess…and deservedly so…
PS. That “rusty mail” is armor, not love letters in the sand…

I’m with Little D and wahz. I like Noah for this team. He reminds me of Kirilenko, who I loved until his disappearing act this year. Noah runs, plays wide, tall D, passes pretty well, sets picks, upbeat attitude, and doesn’t need the ball – a Perk with agility. Perk has a definite role on this team even though his skills are slow coming. He has spirit, dedication and is Al’s bud. Keep him around and keep Clif Ray working with him and he’ll be the best #2 center in the league.

“IMHO Hibbert is Perk all over again, just a little bigger. Did BC have anyone on the floor over 6’7”"

What are you talking about? Have you even seen Hibbert play (or Perk for that matter)?!

Im not a fan of taking Hibbert, but there really are very few similarities. Hibbert is 7’2, slow, and unathletic, but very very smart, polished, and a great passer in the post. He finishes well inside, and has a pretty nice touch from the FT line. He is also a smart defensive player, and a solid rebounder on both sides.

The only similarities between Perk and Hibbert are that they play center, and are above average rebounders and shotblockers.

ucn33
Hibbert is 7’2, slow, and unathletic,
 
That’s exactly what I talking about. I did state he was bigger than Perk.

I guess I should have clarified, I was responding to a previous post by Wilt.

Tomorrow’s game against the Bobcats is easily the most critical game of the year. That being said, I am certain that if we beat them, we will pass them (or they will pass us) in the standings and we will certainly end up at #3. If we lose to them, I am reasonably confident that we won’t we able to make up 5 games in the win column in the last 14 games.