Point, Counter Point
by BillfromBoston on Apr 10, 2007 9:52 AM EDT
in Boston Celtics Articles
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PrintThe Merits and detractions of Rajon Rondo's game going forward
{styleboxjp width=200px,float=right,color=black,textcolor=white,echo=yes} Rajon Rondo has been such a revelation for this franchise during an otherwise painful season{/styleboxjp}. His ability to consistently produce the spectacular has made him a fan favorite of many and given Celtics fans hope for the future. Anyone that's listened to Celticsstufflive or read the Celticsblog message board for fifteen minutes is aware of "MikeDfromNP" and his bandwagon leading charge in Rondo's behalf…not a bad seat to be in most would agree.
In the interest and quality of Mike's recent post, I thought it would serve as an excellent staging ground for a true analysis of where Rajon is as a player and where he needs to get to in order to truly be what we want to see him become.
Mike's post in italics:
The offensive and defensive rating stats are considered by many to be a "gold standard" in rating a team's performance. They are quite simple to calculate:
Total number of points scored (or surrendered) / Total possessions X 100 = The rating.
These are also able to be tracked for the team according to when a certain player is on the court. If you go onto Basketballreference.com , you will see, in the advanced stats, the offensive and defensive ratings for players since the late 70's. 82games.com also tracks them throughout the season. They are another tool that can be used to evaluate a players impact upon a team, and be able to tell the ineffective stat stuffers like Marbury apart from guys like Kidd, whose numbers are similar, but whose real impact is far more beneficial.
Since 82games.com tracks the ratings for players when they are on the court, they are also able to track team performance when they are off of the court. By doing so, they are able to generate net "swing" numbers regarding a player's oncourt/off court effect. These are influenced, of course, by the makeup of that players team. A player who plays on a squad with a strong bench will have less of a positive impact than one who plays on a squad with weak bench, but it is still easy to see that the elite players have more of an impact than the very good, the very good more than they good, and so on.
Most of the league's very good players have an on court/ off court net between +6 and +8. Some are a little higher, and some a little lower, but it is a fairly consistent measurement. Paul Pierce, with a + 7.5 falls into this range, as do LeBron James +7.5, Kobe Bryant +8.0, Dwayne Wade +8.3, Baron Davis +8.2, Jermaine O'Neal +8.2, Chauncey Billups +9.2, Rashard Lewis +6.6, McGrady +6.5, Yao +5.8, Jason Kidd +6.3, Chris Bosh +7.3, Ron Artest +5.2, etc. There are more, but I think you can see that these are are widely respected players, at least ability wise, in the league, and are All-Star caliber players.
Then there is the next level of player, the guys who are on the short list for the MVP, by right, even though a good case could be made for James and Bryant. This is where you find guys who have already won MVP awards, and one who should win this season: Nowitzki +15.3, Nash +14.5, Garnett +14.4, and Duncan +11.4 (remember that number). So, not so coincidentally, the 2 - 5 players in this stat are the three most recent MVP winners, and the guy who should win it this year. Who leads this stat? Gilbert Arenas with a ridiculous +17.4. So just in case you thought that Gilbert wasn't worthy of mention, think again. If it wasn't for him the Wizards would be hot on our heels.
I think I made a good case that this is a very revealing statistical indicator. There are some guys who you were probably expecting who aren't there, like Boozer, but remember that the Jazz bench is the best in the league, so all of the Jazz starters have their numbers depressed by that being the case. He is still safely in the positive category, though. Both Melo and A.I. rated poorly, and they don't have a great bench to use as an excuse. CP3 didn't fare well either, which really surprised me, but I think he is getting caught in the bench hole too, though the Hornets don't have a bench like Utah's. The Jazz bench has won a lot of games for them this season, but the Hornets did pretty well without Paul, so who knows?
--Great start to the article, but its important to remember that variance within these groups is likely high because the numbers aren't controlled for the other 4 player's on the court with them. {styleboxjp width=150px,float=left,color=grey,textcolor=black,echo=yes}Players will always sort by rank in any statistical measure of production, but limiting the variance in these numbers is really the only way to know what order everyone falls in....{/styleboxjp}just something to think about...
There are some interesting things that become clear when doing such an analysis. Case in point: many of us have long claimed that Pierce is an equivalent player to Wade, Kobe and James. Well, according to these stats, he is. He represents the same impact upon his team's effectiveness. Guys who many people feel to be ineffective stat stuffers, like Melo and A.I., come across poorly with their low ratings (+0.2 and -1.6 respectively).
--Same as above: Melo and AI are underperforming relative to their supposed peers, but there are mitigating factors all around this. Chemistry, experience, and continuity are all major variables at play in the roster makeup of all these teams. Both of these players are CENTRAL elements to their team's offensive sets. Building the continuity necessary to incorporate them into one functional unit is a process that takes far longer than one season.
You all should know what is coming now, as I'm not going through this for nothing. Pierce does not lead his team in this stat. Rajon Rondo leads the Celtics. He represents a ratings swing of +11.6, 0.2 more than Duncan...I told you to remember that number. Does that mean that Rajon Rondo is as good, or even in the same neighborhood, as Tim Duncan? No way. What it does mean is that what the Celtics look like without Rondo out there is pretty much what the difference is between what the Spurs are with Duncan in and out of the lineup. Anyone familiar with that team knows that the Spurs are a vastly different, and inferior, squad when Timmy isn't out there. The same is true of the Boston Celtics and Rondo.
Enough of the "garbage time" stuff. Rondo has been playing the serious minutes for a while now, and he has improved this rating in that time. A lot of it has to do with the inferiority of the other two point guards on this team. Delonte is effective at the two, and Bassy is decent, but no great shakes as the backup.
Personally, I think he is more of a catalyst than anything else. Varejao actually has a 0.5 lead on Lebron for the same reason. The Cavs are a much better team when he is out there. He plays tough D, grabs a lot of rebounds, and basically helps to raise the level of his team's play. David Lee has an even bigger swing than Rondo for the Knicks, for very much the same reason, though he is the only player whom I didn't already list who does.
So you all who think that Rajon is kicking butt and taking names, as I do, you are correct. To those of you who think that he is substandard, then I advise that you to start to rethink how you evaluate a player. Numbers like that do not happen by accident. They are the direct result of a player's positive impact upon his team's performance.
--All this is very compelling evidence to support your point, but one must recognize that situational impact players are only used in the situations that play to their strengths. There are at least 12 to 20 minutes in any given game where players like Lee and Verejao are taken out of the game for matchup or rotational purposes. The same applies to them as it does to Rajon at this time.
There's no denying they all can play, but they're losing about 25 to 35 percent of their maximum rotational time because of the distinct limitations of each...and for each one it's offensive production.
A majority of possessions are played in the half court and all three of these teams play in a lot of isolation sets- Celtics with Jefferson and Pierce, Cavs with Lebron and Hughes, and NY with Curry and Marbury. This is what accounts for that 25-35 percent. Transition players are overly reliant on their help skills in half-court sets and it puts a heavier burden on the other 4 players to produce offense.
When defensive intensity increases and offensive movement suffers, {styleboxjp width=250px,float=right,color=maroon,textcolor=white,echo=yes}situational players like Lee, Varejao, and Rondo often have to come out because they can't function effectively in a positional, static game{/styleboxjp}.
Who, by the way, are the next guy's on the list for this on the Celtics? Allan Ray +2.9 (he's been solid in his time out there), Tony Allen +2.7, Jefferson -0.1, Telfair -0.1, Szczerbiak -0.3, and Perkins -0.8. Sound about right? Yeah, I thought so. Delonte's is -5.0, but that is overwhelmingly due to his time at the point. He has been quite effective at the two.
--Anyone that argues that Rondo hasn't had an extremely successful season is a fool. He's been one of the best rookies in this draft class, only getting the benefit of half a season's worth of real playing time.
But that's not the argument we have not seen eye to eye on. There is NO DOUBT Rondo has the ability inside him to be a great point guard in the NBA, that was reported on by DraftExpress day one in Summer League this year.
The question was what Rondo could do in the half-court sets this team runs. To Rondo's immense credit, he gets the team to RUN more often than any other PG on this team bar none-part of the reason he's got such a great player rating for sure...
The Celtics haven't committed to running though, and until that jump shot is rectified, he's not going to be able to run the half-court sets consistently and stick on the court. Against some teams, he absolutely can be effective. But playoff basketball is about half court execution and Rondo isn't a consistently effective half court point guard.
EVERY point guard with this problem has run into the same difficulties historically aside from Jason Kidd and Gary Payton, both of whom could post to compensate...and are HoFers...Avery Johnson, Brevin Knight, and Eric Snow have all overcome this, as has TJ Ford who is hopefully the curve that Rondo is working off of.
Taking this argument a step further, Jason Kidd has never played with an effective interior big man. If Kidd is truly the gold standard for weak-shooting point guards who have success than it must be recognized that Kidd has always been the best player on his team and has been responsible for creating on virtually every play, a responsibility that Rondo is unlikely to have. When Kidd was at his worst shooting-wise his team was also a lottery level team. When Kidd reached Phoenix and New Jersey he played in up-tempo systems that were devoid of dominant interior offense. Rondo plays with Al Jefferson and that dramatically effects how the team will run its offensive sets. This will require Rondo to his kick-out shots with the clock running down, something he's been unable to do thus far.
It IS a legit problem to be concerned about though, because {styleboxjp width=175px,float=right,color=skyblue,textcolor=black,echo=yes}Rondo has some of the worst mechanics I've ever seen. To his credit he's had moments in shoot-a-rounds where he's looked like he was starting to isolate his motion a bit and eliminate the numerous things he does that cause shot variance{/styleboxjp}.
Overall his fundamental mechanics are all over the map most of the time and it is going to take a tremendous amount of self-awareness and hard work to improve those issues. Rondo does work hard, so we can expect him to improve as a player. But certain players can't or won't admit to their own flaws, (Celtics fans should be able to relate to that) while still working hard.
If Rajon can commit to that type of improvement he truly could be special. All I have ever asked in his evaluation is to recognize how special that type of commitment is. This level of improvement isn't something to be taken as a given.
I asked Rajon early this year if he had thought about personal trainers and workout routines and at that time he told me he was going to do what he usually did to prepare. To me this showed his youth. While there's no doubt that Rajon knows how to work hard on his own, but working hard is different than working smart. Powe is in this boat too.
You've got to get with a professional workout regimen before you're really going to make strides. Being in shape is different than doing the best drill work to improve the biggest fundamental problems. {styleboxjp width=125px,float=left,color=black,textcolor=white,echo=yes}If the organization or the individual players are on top of their games, Rajon will have a great offseason program mapped out for him{/styleboxjp}. Perk and the summer crew may recruit him; it'd certainly help Delonte to work on his lateral quickness and his right hand. What he does between May and September is going to be what makes him a true starter in the league next year and not 2 years from now.
Perhaps the most important element in this equation is what the Celtics add to their team this offseason. If the Celtics are fortunate enough to add Greg Oden to the frontcourt the team will become extremely half court oriented with an emphasis on inside/outside play. At Rondo's current shooting level, he'll be a substantial detriment to these offensive sets. Rondo is currently 11 for 46 on the season shooting jumpers outside the paint, that's 29 percent. That's not going to cut on a playoff team looking to compete with other half court oriented teams when hitting perimeter shots to open up the inside for Jefferson and Oden will be essential.
If the team adds Kevin Durant, or another floor spacing big man, Rondo will still need to improve his shooting to take advantage of the looks created from the defensive attention those players receive, but he should have some more wiggle room to grow. At the end of the day however, Rondo's overall game isn't going to win out over a dominant frontcourt-centric offense and that's going to require major personal growth on his behalf.
Jefferson and Pierce are going to be the focal points of this offense for the foreseeable future and the team is certain to add another big time front court player to that tandem. Rondo won't be afforded the time and opportunity that Kidd, Payton, Johnson, Miller, Knight, and Ford were given.
It's not a question of his ability, but a matter of the team that surrounds him and the demands that will be placed on him given the nature of the offense. This team is fixing to build a competitive playoff team which will be build around frontcourt dominance and stellar perimeter scoring. Without a reliable jumper, Rondo is most likely to be the change of pace back up, which should still give him 20 to 30 minutes a game with plenty of big time performances.
The ball is in his court, but he's got to lock down that missing piece before he'll start on a Celtics team that's being constructed to rely on reliable outside shooting from its backcourt. We won't know how Rajon has come in this regard until next November, but it's unquestionable that he must if he wishes to be the lead guard on a team with championship aspirations.
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that dude always brings up the /- stats but fails to realize that there are so many variables that account for those stats.
by jimmywolfrey on Apr 10, 2007 12:00 PM EDT reply actions
if there was a control where two players played with the same 4 players against the same exact lineup on the otherside…with the exact same starting score and same point in the game and then maybe that would be a better indicator.
by jimmywolfrey on Apr 10, 2007 12:02 PM EDT reply actions
Nice posts, Eric and MikeDNP. I am particularly intrigued with Eric’s comment “If Rajon can commit to that type of improvement he truly could be special. All I have ever asked in his evaluation is to recognize how special that type of commitment is. This level of improvement isn’t something to be taken as a given.” I would like to know whether he thinks any other Cs have demonstrated—or not demonstrated—that level of commitment. Did Big Al’s improvement this year have anything to do with that? What about Perk; has his commitment level taken him as far as he can go? And anything Eric might say about Oden or Durrant in that regard would also be of interest. Nice job, guys!
nice post….
big al at a negative number though? wassup with that?
by yall hate on Apr 10, 2007 12:10 PM EDT reply actions
After reading a hundred and half not so great posts about Doc’s re-upping, an issue which depresses me too, this was wonderfully refreshing. Substantial and well done. Excellent.
by Rick Robey Reruns on Apr 10, 2007 12:25 PM EDT reply actions
Confirms what I already knew – Rondo kicks a**!
I disagree that Rondo has the “worst” shooting mechanics in the world. Clearly, he needs some fine tuning, but he doesn’t need a complete overhaul. Just because he only needs fine tuning, doesn’t mean it won’t be a lot of work. He needs to pay the price this summer – if he does, his jumpshot will be more than adequate.
Nice work Eric. Anyone who listens to Celticsstuff Live and reads your work knows that we spend WAY too much time talking about the Celtics on the phone. Anyway, the last part of your post was the point I was making so unconcisely at the end of our show Sunday night – thanks for putting it so eloquently!
Great work on both sides: I’ve been missing MikeD’s posts of late. Does Rondo have to improve on his shot? Of course. But I don’t think he has to become a showcase shooter to be a key element to this team. I think they are going to build around him just as much as around Pierce and maybe even Al into the future. Both Doc and the players have seen how much improved D can give them and Rondo is central to that. If Doc’s been working to mask Kevinn’s weaknesses (as he is quoted claiming today), then surely he’s looked to working around Rondo’s game as well.
Enough of the “garbage time” stuff. Rondo has been playing the serious minutes for a while now
But isn’t it ‘serious’ minutes in garbage games? in a garbage season? I’d at least be wary of it. In these types of lost seasons somebody is going to put up numbers.
by bullsblogger on Apr 10, 2007 1:36 PM EDT reply actions
It doesn’t matter if Rondo works hard. If he takes an extra 2,000 shots a day, with his same shooting mechanic, he’s not going to get that much better. What he needs, and what the team needs to provide, is a proper shooting coach.
Look at the difference in Al’s game, since we took Clifford Ray from Orland(and, for that matter, look at the regression in Dwight Howard’s game) If we could get a proper shooting coach for Rondo, he could be an all-star in a few years.
by Cullain on Apr 10, 2007 1:50 PM EDT reply actions
You have to look at actual on court production not just relative production. There is no doubt that Rondo has outplayed D. West at the PG spot.
However it’s quite possible that numerous other players would have done the same. That’s why sites like 82games look statistics like PER to provide a more balanced view of a players worth.
Rondo’s PER at the PG spot is 13.2 but his opponents PER is 16.8. Call me a fool but Rondo’s domination is certainly questionable. Guys like Kidd and Kobe dominate their position in this regard..
Kidd PER is 21.8, Nash is 25.6, and Kobe is at 25.2 at SG and at 31.7 at SF!
With some decent production all we can say about Rondo is that he runs the team much better then Delonte West does. This might be about how bad West is rather then how good Rondo is.
Pete
by Sweet17 on Apr 10, 2007 1:51 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, although Mike dismisses the garbage time argument, I don’t buy it. Mike said Rondo’s rating has improved as he has seen more minutes, but I find nothing on 82games.com that tracks this over time, and my impression from visiting the site on occasion and looking at these numbers is that Rondo’s number have gone down as he’s played more starting minutes. Mike, do you have a link to Rondo’s ratings as a starter versus a bench player (or even over time)? I think that may help.
While comparing starters to starters with /- has some merit (although still some limitations as well depending on the supporting cast, relative strength of starters versus bench etc.), comparing starters to bench players gets very tricky,especially on bad, young teams who have more garbage time being on losing end of games(i.e., while the good, winning team is generaly letting up a bit, the bad, losing team narrows the gap at the end with the young guys).
Here are the best 2-player combos accoring to 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/0607/ppairs0607.htm) for 5 bad teams with young players/players who they want to give time to at the end of blowouts:
Boston: Rondo/Green
Charlotte: Anderson/Voshkul
Atlanta: Childress/Williams
Knicks: Balkman/Lee
Portland: Rodriquez/Aldridge
Even though there is some talent there, it’s young talent whose stats are getting padded late in the game in meaningless minutes, and it all goes into the mix of their ratings. There are a lot of guys in there clearly not among the best 5 players on their teams, and clearly not playing a lot of minutes against other teams’ best 5s. For better and/or more veteran teams the 2 best player combos tend to look more like you would expect Harris/Nowitzki, Duncan/Bowen, Arenas/Butler, Nash/Marion, etc..
This is from someone who has loved Rondo since Kentucky and thought he should have been the starting point guard after I saw him in preseason. I love his game and his future, but I think these /- metrics tell us nothing about either, except if you look how he does with the same personnel(in similar situations – starting say) compared with West or Telfair. That is more of a controlled experiment.
I liked Mike’s post, and agree with EricW. One thing jumped out at me: “Rondo is currently 11 for 46 on the season shooting jumpers outside the paint, that’s 29 percent.”
How can you play so many minutes and have that number of shot attempts. Not does he miss the shots, he does not take them. Thus the need to take him out at the end of the game and Doc’s comments about Dallas not guarding him at all. Let whoever is in the paint pick him up when they he gets there.
Ancient Red said a minny DJ. I said that to a friend of mine a week or so ago. Hopefully, Rondo learns to shot as well as DJ did.
The problem with this analysis is that if we add Oden, Rondo will become more effective. Why? Odens strength is his Defense and Rebounding. Blocked shots and Defensive Rebounds will lead to more fast break oppertunities, which will again highlight Rondo’s strength. As well, you say that the Offense will be centered around Oden. What? This guy had trouble being the focus at Ohio. He’s going to do this right away in the Pros? Don’t think so. Pierce will still be the focus! Otherwise, a great article!
I would agree with Coach. Oden would only HELP the Rondo situation in terms of defense and rebounding.
Rondo has looked spectacular at times this year, but I don’t think we’ll really see how great he could be for another year or two. He’s definitley farther along than Telfair is, and while his shooting touch is inconsistent it’s not something that is unfixable or makes him any less valuable. It would be nice to see the C’s go out and sign a strong veteran point to help tutor Rondo, but I don’t think that one is available . . . . Chauncey would be prohibitively expensive.
Well…Wow!…No one’s gonna ask “Where’s the meat” on that post, Eric, but I can’t help but wonder what you would have said if you had to write it out in longhand?…:)
One other trifle, 11 for 46 is not 29% it’s 23.9130434…% which is considerably worse, statistically speaking, of course…Hah!
My mindset is that Rondo will develop his shot and go on to be an all star…That’s all the thinking I can handle before tonight’s game…Once again, however, an extremely interesting tome…Thanks!
by BoundingRounder on Apr 10, 2007 3:14 PM EDT reply actions
A very PROVOCATIVE article that accomplished what it set out to do—-namely, to generate lively discussion. All statistics have an inherent flaw, the inability to control confounding variables. In Rondo’s case this statistical limitation has been amply addressed both in the article and previous posts. Nice work guys!
In the final analysis, despite statistical flaws and limitations, Rondo appears to be a player with unique gifts, foremost among these are his great athleticism, instincts and high basketball IQ.
In player drafting the most difficult intangible to assess is the player’s LEVEL OF DETERMINATION to become the BEST. Athleticism, size, IQ, and skill level etc. all factor into a player’s upside. Rondo is deficient in the last of these yardsticks.. It will be interesting to see what lofty OBJECTIVE he has selected for his career Bio!.
by moskqq on Apr 10, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions
The /- numbers show that Rajon Rondo, even at this early stage of his professional development, makes the other players around him better.
This is what true Celtics like Bill Russell and Larry Bird and Dennis Johnson and K.C. Jones did, and it is the reason why many long-time Celtics fans respect, but don’t love Antoine Walker and Paul Pierce.
As a 21 year old rookie point guard, Rajon Rondo performed far better than expected. Now Danny Ainge should go out and find a head coach who can work with Rondo far better than Doc Rivers has worked with Marcus Banks, Orion Green, Delonte West, and Sebastian Telfair.
by ThickNThinFan on Apr 10, 2007 4:51 PM EDT reply actions
I thought this article was kinda a waste of time. The – stat doesn’t prove much. Maybe he got playing time while Pierce was on the floor. Who knows. Fact is, Rondo is a 5 point 3 assist 38% shooting rookie who is kinda irrelevant to the NBA right now. I’m not sure who is more overrated here, Rondo or Gerald. They are both bench warmers at this point.
I dont think anyone can even consider Rondo as being a potential starting PG on a good playoff team until he develops a respectable jumpshot.
I like Rondo, but until he can make defenders respect his ability to score the basketball, he will never be more than a change of pace PG coming off the bench. Im rootin for him, though!
by ucn33 on Apr 10, 2007 5:12 PM EDT reply actions
Wow, I have to wildly disagree with LarBrd33 on this one. This was one of the best articles I’ve read on here, and while Rondo may have moved into overrated territory on this board, he is a solid (and fairly consistent) contributor to this team already, which, sadly, cannot be said for Gerald— whom I love, but who is certainly further away from being a good starter than Rondo. In fact, I agree with many that Rondo is already a pretty good starter, though I also agree that he exhibits the weaknesses sketched above.
Also, I think it’s kind of funny the way people disagree with stats they don’t like, and then cite the ones they do, such as: “Fact is, Rondo is a 5 point 3 assist 38% shooting rookie who is kinda irrelevant to the NBA right now.” Why are points, assists, and shooting percentage— without any reference to minutes or, more importantly, the change in those stats over the course of the season— the right stats to use, while the others cited above are not? What’s the logic behind that? (I’m not saying there isn’t any, but it would certainly need to be spelled out to be persuasive.)
Re; ThickNthinFan. The comparison of Marcus Banks, Orien Green, Delonte West and Tefair to Rondo seems like an ill-advised comparison. None match Rondo’s combination of size, athleticism, handles, instincts (basketball IQ), and defensive talents. Rondo has more SHEER/raw potential than those previously mentioned. While more gifted, Rondo still has much to address if he is to reach his full potential.
I think it unfair to BLAME Doc for the failures of Marcus, Orien, Delonte and Telfair because these players were inherently FLAWED to begin with and their lack of development could just as easily be blamed on coachability, determination to address weaknesses or lack of instinctive reaction at the fast-paced NBA level. Rondo has the mindset of a PG which Marcus, Orien and Telfair have never had.
by moskqq on Apr 10, 2007 5:35 PM EDT reply actions
But at the same time, pretty much every PG that has played under Doc has underachieved. Kinda ironic for someone who played that position in the NBA.
Eventually, the coach deserves some of the blame for that.
by ucn33 on Apr 10, 2007 5:42 PM EDT reply actions
But at the same time…..has Doc ever had a true PG to work with?
by moskqq on Apr 10, 2007 5:49 PM EDT reply actions
No, and Im not saying he has. Sure all those players have been flawed (and Im not even counting Orien, who was a VERY flawed player), but that doesnt excuse how much those extremely talented players underachieved.
And thats only talking about PGs.
by ucn33 on Apr 10, 2007 6:51 PM EDT reply actions
PJ…. he’s done nothing in this league. He’s a nobody. If they start scoring 20 at the end of this season it proves nothing to me. Gerald did the same thing last year when the games stopped being competitive.
He shows flashes, but point guard is still one of our major weaknesses. Hopefully we address our weaknesses this offseason by drafting Oden at center and trading for a competent point who can play over Delonte and Rondo.
Jughead said:
Nice work Eric. Anyone who listens to Celticsstuff Live and reads your work knows that we spend WAY too much time talking about the Celtics on the phone. Anyway, the last part of your post was the point I was making so unconcisely at the end of our show Sunday night – thanks for putting it so eloquently!
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Just trying to back your play Jug, seeing as I missed out on calling in yesterday…piece on Rondo’s shot mechanics will be out tomorrow or next day…it is bad, trust me…
Coach said:
The problem with this analysis is that if we add Oden, Rondo will become more effective. Why? Odens strength is his Defense and Rebounding. Blocked shots and Defensive Rebounds will lead to more fast break oppertunities, which will again highlight Rondo’s strength. As well, you say that the Offense will be centered around Oden. What? This guy had trouble being the focus at Ohio. He’s going to do this right away in the Pros? Don’t think so. Pierce will still be the focus! Otherwise, a great article!
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Never said anything about the offense buing centered around Oden, just that the offense will gear more toward halfcourt with Oden and Jefferson…
…fast breaks will probably increase with blocks and boards, but not to the point where there are more transition plays than half court sets…you’re talking the difference in 5-10 more transition ops vs. 60 half court sets…
Off topic but just watched tonight’s game and noted one reason why Telfair is such a poor defender. Despite the quickness of the opposing PG, Telfair stands UPRIGHT and FLAT_FOOTED, resting his weight on his heels instead of the balls of his feet. No wonder his response time is so poor!
by moskqq on Apr 10, 2007 8:21 PM EDT reply actions
Wow, human nature never seems to amaze me. What I realy expected from the post, and to Eric W. my hat is off as usual. Your lengthy post tried to explain and deflate some of the post you still got. As usual you did a very good job at explaining thing from a objective perspective. You tried to take the sail out of some of the posters by explaining some of thier concerns before hand. It’s what makes you such a good writer is you understand opposing viewpoints before there even posted. Don’t ever give that up!
For anyone who has ever taken a statistics course in college you understand they can be molded to form the opion you want. Which is why I stated in my coment before:
Statistics are like a bikin what they reveal is suggestive, what they hide is vital.
This article tried to put them in the most objective light;
Most people in this site use statistics as a drunkin man uses a lampost – for support rather than illumination.
Keep up the good work, very good article…there will always be variables, I always think the players you mention, is that western conference vs. eastern…but you did a very good job looking a most vairables and what Rondo needs to work on.
by The Real Alaska on Apr 10, 2007 8:57 PM EDT reply actions
Sorry if I left some letters out or whatever, had a tooth pulled today and on the pain killers. I hope you got my point. Keep the faith, Restore the Pride.
by The Real Alaska on Apr 10, 2007 9:00 PM EDT reply actions
Also I like to pay recognition to PJ Martinez and of course Moskqq good post.
by The Real Alaska on Apr 10, 2007 9:12 PM EDT reply actions
Alaska, you’re moving into Master Po territory with the pithy sayings. Watch it, buddy.
Rondo as a starter — 34 minutes, 9.4 ppg on 44% “shooting” 5.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists to 2.3 Turnovers, and 2.5 steals. What’s not to like?
Rondo should hire Ryan Gomes’ personal shooting coach this offseason. His name is Rob McClanahan, and he is a very good skills/shooting coach, who has helped Gomes improve his game every year the past four summers. It’s a mystery why the Cs haven’t hired this guy already. When you’re paying the last guy on the bench a half million a year, why not have as many coaches as you need at $100K a year? (Mark Cuban philosophy).
Watching Ryan Gomes effortly hit three pointers these last few games (8-15 this month) tells me that he’s a hard working guy who will do anything he can to stick in the NBA.
Rondo needs to either deconstruct his jump shooting motion and create a whole new one, or learn to get good rotation and accuracy with that horrible motion he now has. Either way, it would be wise to hire McClanahan to work with him. While the bigs have progressed under Clifford Ray, all the perimeter guys on this team besides Gomes 9and the injured TA) have had lousy years shooting-wise.
here’s a link to a story about Coach McClanahan
http://www.shns.com/shns/g_index2.cfm?action=detail&pk=BKN-REYNOLDS-05-28-06
by TripleOT on Apr 10, 2007 9:32 PM EDT reply actions
TripleOT, thank you! Master Po and I, I’d like to think support each other. Like rain drops from the sky, to the stream, to the rive and on to the ocean. Finding ONE!
by The Real Alaska on Apr 11, 2007 12:04 AM EDT reply actions
You have to love this site. 47 responses to a Rajon Rondo article.
I was interested in reading this one after doing my own research and writing about Rondo myself recently (utterly shameless self promotion). Surprisingly, or maybe not so, some similar stats were sifted to get a ‘reading on Rondo’. Eric and Mike’s conclusions were remarkably similar to my own. I guess I’m not so dumb after all.
Eric’s additional ‘game style’ comments, re Oden, give us some interesting interpretations to think about.
All sports fans seem to love stats, even if they realize they have their limitations.
Many of the comments were interesting as well. Particularly Sweet17s, where he mentioned the disparity between our own vaunted PGs PER and some truly great ones. But you don’t even have to go to the great PGs to get some perspective on things. When I researched for my own piece, I found that all 3 of our PGs are outscored by their counterparts regularly (statistical averages).
But it should be no surprise, really. Forget the 5 pt average. While Rondo averages 8-9 pts as a recent starter, even Rondo’s great defense doesn’t keep his opponent from outscoring him nightly. De facto, he is out defensed. The same is true for our other PGS. I found it was also true for our bigs. Perkins can play good defense but still get outscored. Jefferson’s defense, while improving, isn’t so great vs his counterpart. Look it up if you like.
We only outscore our opponents at the swing positions 2/3 which means mostly Paul Pierce. Surprise. We knew that when the year started and it is still so. The more things change….
The garbage minutes factor, as mentioned by someone else, as well as return of Paul Pierce is perhaps being understated a little as well. There are more ‘plus’ opportunities generally when you are winning more, logic states. This is in addition to ‘weak bench’ situations that can foster disparity (as mentioned by Eric). This is simply to say that the gaudy plus/minus number Rondo has might not be as quite as dramatic as it appears to be.
Once Pierce came back and the team started winning, Rondo was inserted as the starting PG and his minutes went up appropriately. It wasn’t the other way around. In fact, Delonte West was 4-2 as the starter during that little winning streak once Paul got re-acquainted with his team and vice a versa. Then the keys were handed to Rajon. He emerged and began producing more solid numbers compared to the rest of his year. It wasn’t just more minutes, more production. He started shooting better as well, including his foul shots of late.
But this is not to be negative on Rondo. He has some very good tools. I love watching him develop as a player. My point is that some of the joy of Rondo might be hard to catch in statistics at this point. His intangibles are not all easily measured. At times, he can change the pace and tenor of a game. Only Tony Allen on this current team has shown a similar ability. I’m not sure how that would always show up in a statistic.
I happen to agree that Rondo’s current poor shooting style and lack of solid foul shooting overall can limit his time on a team that is actually going somewhere. Rondo is most effective in an uptempo game for sure. But he doesn’t have to go as far as some may think to be an effective half court player, either. I think he can make the adjustments necessary.
But a few positives I leave you with. Rondo is still finding out just what he can do and his game is still in development. My guess is he will continue to improve in most aspects of it. The same is true for Al Jefferson. Al will build on this year. Neither player’s game has reached its peak. So we have that to look forward to next year, in addition to everything else we all hope for.
Rondoism and Jeffersonian thinking. They say you shouldn’t mix religion and politics. I think it can work here.
peace,
T
tenaciousT, very good post and gets back to what I said, variables. Let me add, not only will Rondo and Al’s game grow but so will the rest on this team, Green, Perkins, Gnomes and yes even Telfair.
by The Real Alaska on Apr 11, 2007 1:20 AM EDT reply actions
Yes, great post tT and you have been putting out some great stuff on MVN as well. I think Jeff should recruit you for his staff ;-)
Anyway, you summarized this entire debate very well and I do think it important to look even at games like last night against the Hawks where nobody played any defense and realize that it’s impossible to get a read on these players under those conditions.
Eric – thanks for backing my play!
game sink, you’re absolutely correct – Dwight Howard is a better player, in every way, then he was a year ago. I meant more that his rate of improvement has regressed. I fully expected him to make ‘the leap’ this year. Now, it’s looking like it might take 1 or 2 more years. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still one of the best centers in the league. It’s just that right now he’s in Emeka Okafor territory, and I thought he’d be better then that, this year
by Cullain on Apr 11, 2007 10:34 AM EDT reply actions
Lets face facts as of now the brass is evaluating talent and has been for a while. Since after the all-star break. All statistics will improve once our system improves which is why I am not sold on these stories of Doc being extended.
Sure he has developed the individual talent but the turnovers are still high which means discipline is needed. The true talents on our team besides Pierce and yes Wally, are Jefferson, Green and Rondo. Defensively I like Allen the best or did before his injury. West, well he is tenacious but too imjury prone and that combo guard syndrome I think will haunt him a bit.
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