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Chad's Big Board

lotto.jpg

Chad Ford and ESPN have updated the look of their lottery simulator. Playing it a bunch of times, I think Chad's idea of the Celtics big board looks like this:

  1. Greg Oden
  2. Kevin Durant
  3. Joakim Noah
  4. Brandan Wright
  5. Julian Wright

By the way, vwoodruff organized a blog poll in the Draft Forum and collectively you voted on this top 10. (we'll probably repeat this process on the front page poll in the comming weeks.

(1) Greg Oden, C, Ohio St.
(2) Kevin Durant, F, Texas
(3) Al Horford, F, Florida
(4) Brandan Wright, F, No. Carolina
(5) Yi Jianlian, F, China
(6) Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown
(7) Corey Brewer, F, Florida
(8) Mike Conley, Jr., G, Ohio St.
(9) Julian Wright, F, Kansas
(10) Spencer Hawes, C, Washington

 

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noah at three is a joke.

by meanballa34 on Apr 16, 2007 5:48 PM EDT reply actions  

CROToR disagrees, and has Horford at #3.

by Roy_Hobbs on Apr 16, 2007 5:51 PM EDT reply actions  

yeah i can’t see us with Noah at 3. we’d sooner trade the pick.

by ssspence on Apr 16, 2007 5:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Also, Ford has our #5 as Julian Wright.

by Roy_Hobbs on Apr 16, 2007 5:58 PM EDT reply actions  

thanks Roy, every time I got #5 it was still Brandan Wright because of the guys picked ahead of him

so, no Horford? interesting

by Jeff Clark on Apr 16, 2007 6:00 PM EDT reply actions  

1. Oden
2. Durant
3. Corey Brewer
4. Mike Conley, Jr.
5. Tiago Splitter
6. Rudy Hernandez.

Noah=bust

Actually I trust Ainge to do the right thing in the draft, even though I don’t trust him to do much else. He is also the master of the smokescreen. I’m not worried that he will blow the draft. I am worried that he’ll blow the trade in which he gives up the lotto pick that he would otherwise have used intelligently.

by Brickowski on Apr 16, 2007 6:03 PM EDT reply actions  

and what about Jianlian? hasn’t Danny been to China to see the guy play three times?

by ssspence on Apr 16, 2007 6:05 PM EDT reply actions  

I say,

1. Oden
2. Durant
3. B. Wright
4. Horford
5. Brewer
6. J. Wright

Wright and Brewer just have too much potential to pass up. I like Jianlian a lot, too, but haven’t seen him enough to make a solid projection at this point. I’d put him at #7 just on potential alone, however.

by Roy_Hobbs on Apr 16, 2007 6:10 PM EDT reply actions  

I did the draft simulator 8 times and the celtics got the top pick twice, the second pick twice, the third pick once, the fourth pick twice, and the fifth pick once.

And the Bulls got the top pick twice…. with a 4.5% chance at the number one pick. I can’t wait till the lottery is over.

by Moneyshot on Apr 16, 2007 6:13 PM EDT reply actions  

I actually agree with Brickowski 100% on this one. (And that is not usually the case.)

by PJ Martinez on Apr 16, 2007 6:18 PM EDT reply actions  

ssspence said:

“and what about Jianlian? hasn’t Danny been to China to see the guy play three times?”

Smokescreen. He loved Robert Swift too. It was horrible luck that he had to settle for a lesser player like Al Jefferson a few picks later.

by Brickowski on Apr 16, 2007 6:23 PM EDT reply actions  

I just played the draft game 10 tries which included espn first try and bost came up with the #2 pick 50% of the time and 20% for picks #1 and #3.

If thats any indication of how May 22nd works out there is hope.

by richardlight86 on Apr 16, 2007 6:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Chad Ford was the first, and only, guy to project the Celtics taking Rondo last draft. Even though we waited to take him with Phoenix’ pick, it indicated to me that he is in Ainge’s inner circle on players he likes. I would give alot of credence to this order, even though I would be hugely disappointed if we ended up taking Noah at 3 or 4.

by footey on Apr 16, 2007 6:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Does anyone know if Ford talks to GMs to get ideas about their draft board or if he makes up his own based on teams’ needs? I refuse to believe that Danny would have Noah 3rd.

by ydna62386 on Apr 16, 2007 6:41 PM EDT reply actions  

I can’t believe that I’m with Brick…at least through Brewer. After that the crystal ball gets a little fuzzy. Part of my reluctance to go with Conley is my respect for another PG who appears more NBA ready and whose game has shown steady improvement…Acie Law. Even in the case of Acie Law and even though we desperately need another true PG, I don’t know enough about other players rated more highly to REACH that far for a PG.

If the Celtics are interested in Conley perhaps they’re looking at trading Delonte or Gomes plus a future 1st round pick to get him from another trading partner.

by moskqq on Apr 16, 2007 6:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Brickowski said: “Smokescreen. He loved Robert Swift too. It was horrible luck that he had to settle for a lesser player like Al Jefferson a few picks later.”

he sounds to be a much better player than swift, whom i never understood the fascination with. just as long we don’t draft yanik noah’s son, who should exit stage left from the draft and head straight for roland garros, where he belongs. guy shoots free throws like he’s serving a volley ball or something, and has an unfortunate resemblence to ralph macchio.

by ssspence on Apr 16, 2007 6:43 PM EDT reply actions  

I think your wrong about Noah. He’ll be better than Boris Diaw :P!

by Chief # 1 on Apr 16, 2007 6:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Based on the playoffs and Noah’s performance, Noah impressed me as a great BENCH player who can come in and stir things up. He’s above average on defense but under-average on offense. While he would be a valuable addition to the Celtics, one doesn’t use the third pick in a STRONG draft to take a bench player.

by moskqq on Apr 16, 2007 7:01 PM EDT reply actions  

[Edited.] I agree with Brikowski?

  1. is def Brewer
  2. is def Conley if he declares

If we have to pick at #5 . . .idk . . .that kid Wright from NC?

by tmcdon on Apr 16, 2007 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

tmcdon….Conley at 4 would be quite a reach. He has exceptional quickness, is an excellent ball handler but we lack SIZE too and we desperately need someone at PF. While many past draft mistakes have been made by over-weighting size over talent, this draft supposedly has talent with size.

Hopefully this is a mute discussion and we select either #1 or $2.

by moskqq on Apr 16, 2007 7:21 PM EDT reply actions  

ssspence said:
  

“he sounds to be a much better player than swift, whom i never understood the fascination with.” Oh really? I think my facetiousness was lost on you, ssspence.

There was no fascination with Swift. It was pretended fascination so that Seattle would waste a pick on him. Got it?

by Brickowski on Apr 16, 2007 7:28 PM EDT reply actions  

There was no fascination with Swift. It was pretended fascination so that Seattle would waste a pick on him. Got it?

Danny liked Swift. That’s why he offered Gerald for him after the ’05 draft.

by Roy_Hobbs on Apr 16, 2007 7:41 PM EDT reply actions  

The thing is, Danny only once or so expressed the interest. It was the media (and the blogosphere, cough cough) that kept the love alive. Danny NEVER showed interest after the draft-day trick he pulled.
Agree with Brick on the board, too. So glad everyone else is on the same page regarding Noah, who did absolutely nothing for me in the Final Four. Nothing. Strictly an energy guy; he’d be perfect on a championship caliber team and nowhere else.
I LOVED Conley, and maybe he’s a reach at four but he’s going to be something special.
I really do think we have to be prepared for No. 3-4, just in case. I think the drop-off is huge after that. And for some reason, I don’t mind Brandan Wright. Just will take as long as Big Al.

by Big_Easy on Apr 16, 2007 8:03 PM EDT reply actions  

P.S., Brewer’s the only Gator worth mentioning in the lottery.

by Big_Easy on Apr 16, 2007 8:08 PM EDT reply actions  

If we don’t get a top 2 pick, I like the idea of drafting Brewer and then seeing what Gerald and extras would bring in terms of a defensive-minded C or PF. GG, Gomes and salaries for AK-47?

by MattD on Apr 16, 2007 8:25 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t know if Chad has talked extensively with Danny for this round, but Chad called Banks, Perkins, and Rondo before they happened. I think he does talk to Danny and gets some good info.

by Jeff Clark on Apr 16, 2007 8:35 PM EDT reply actions  

“Does anyone know if Ford talks to GMs to get ideas about their draft board or if he makes up his own based on teams’ needs? I refuse to believe that Danny would have Noah 3rd.”

Based on this comment, wouldn’t it be the Bucks who would apparently be into Noah, and not the celtics- since the tics are #2 and Bucks are #3.

by jambr380 on Apr 16, 2007 8:35 PM EDT reply actions  

If we get Noah in the top 5 picks we should all just pack it in. He will be a bust! Brandan Wright should be the pick if we don’t end up with Oden or Durant. He could be the pick that ends up being the best in the draft a few years down the road if Oden and Durant don’t become superstars. I live down here and have seen a lot of him and he is effortless. Unbelieveable natural ability and long. I look for him to be similar to Durant in style. He is a poor free throw shooter though at 57% but shot 64% from the floor. If we decided to run for real he would be a perfect fit. Has had a little negativity with his perceived agressiveness which is why I think he is not a consensus # 3. He would fill that same hole at the 3 spot that would allow Pierce to go to the 2. He is also too small to play the 4 but will be a great wing. The other alternative is Brewer. He seems to be currently a better defender than Wright, but if Wright puts it together he could block a lot of shots and rebound well. Brewer is 2 years older so has had more time to develop. I don’t think I’d be too unhappy with any of the 4!!!

by EJPLAYA on Apr 16, 2007 9:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Roy Hobbs said:
  
“Danny liked Swift. That’s why he offered Gerald for him after the ’05 draft.”

Source? Please post the link.

by Brickowski on Apr 16, 2007 9:17 PM EDT reply actions  

HAS ANYONE SING jianlian PLAY???!!! HES NASTTTY

by bdo3272 on Apr 16, 2007 9:21 PM EDT reply actions  

yeah, Hobbs, bring on a source to confirm the offer. speculation’s not allowed here…

by ssspence on Apr 16, 2007 9:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Every time I tried the simulator I got the C’s at #4 it seemed. Once at #1, once at #2, mostly 3 and 4. Yikes!! We really need a big so if we don’t get top 2 we should look at Horford. But the better prospects after top 2 are Brewer, J.& B. Wright and Conley. My guess is J. Wright due to a slightly better all round game. Passing, put it on the floor, defense all above average. Needs work on the shot though.

by celty86 on Apr 16, 2007 9:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Forgot Jeff Green. I think he will be a very good pro despite final 4 showing. Wouldn’t bother me to see him in green.

by celty86 on Apr 16, 2007 9:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Um… just because I have a good memory doesn’t mean I’m speculating.

[url=http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/articles/2006/01/19/candy_man_wouldnt_leave_the_right_taste/?page=2]Here’s one story stating that Danny has made repeated attempts to acquire Swift since the 2004 draft, with Gerald being the primary trade bait.[/url]

Satisfied?

In terms of determining whether Ainge’s interest in Swift was genuine, I’m going to trust Jackie and her sources over posters on this blog. Ainge wanted the kid; there were no smoke screens.

by Roy_Hobbs on Apr 16, 2007 9:32 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m surprised Hibbert’s not viewed more highly. He looked nearly the equal of Oden in the semifinal game. And certainly looked better against him then Noah or Horford.

by no kidding on Apr 16, 2007 9:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Speculation by McMullan. I don’t believe it.

by Brickowski on Apr 16, 2007 9:38 PM EDT reply actions  

I gotta agree with ssspence here…I kept hearing about Danny’s love for Swift even after the draft and as much as I love brick if you think seattle drafted swift just because danny gave the impression he wanted him than you’ve mixed your celtic green kool-aid with something a bit stronger. Personally anything outside of the top 2 and I think we need to package it. However if we do draft someone I’d probably take someone like spencer hawes who can play center and provide the offensive game that perkins lacks.

by Byrdman on Apr 16, 2007 9:44 PM EDT reply actions  

i like brewer at no. 3. haven’t seen splitter,or the chinese player. horford is not half bad but not a center or as good as brewer. hibbert is a heeler as they say, runs on his heels, and doesn’t seem to be athletic.i like acie law better than conley, but conleys very good.don’t know the wrights.

by nazzbo on Apr 16, 2007 10:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Apparently I am the only one that thinks Noah won’t be a total bust. I’m thinking 7-12 will be about right, but we are making him sound like Joe Smith here……

by dsbeave on Apr 16, 2007 10:09 PM EDT reply actions  

I am waiting for the Draft STIMULATOR (batteries not included) – it sounds more fun.

The only more thing more unpredictable than what pick we will get, and who we choose, is whether or not that person can actually produce results for the Celtics.

So…..Stimulate or Simulate away….it matters not to the Gods of fate.

by Master Po on Apr 16, 2007 10:20 PM EDT reply actions  

It appears that by typing the word Stimulate excited me to type the word “more” one too many times. ;D

by Master Po on Apr 16, 2007 10:23 PM EDT reply actions  

There’s a place up on Route 1 in Saugus where they sell draft stimulators.

by Brickowski on Apr 16, 2007 10:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Noah wont be good in the pros, and Brandon Wright just plain sucks.

Its Oden, Durant, Brewer, or trade for an All-Star.

by ucn33 on Apr 16, 2007 10:42 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t know if Ainge liked Swift or not. And I don’t know what he thinks of Yi (although I like him). I do believe GM’s use smokescreens (although it happens more in the NFL then the NBA). But I have to ask Brick, don’t you think getting on a plane and flying to China 3 times is a bit much for a smokescreen? I mean if he went once and then praised the kid that would be one thing.

Of course I still think you scout guys you are not sure about and not guys you really like. if you like them then why scout them? Hence I don’t believe Danny is infatuated with Durant just becuase he’s been to a few of his games.

by furball2323 on Apr 16, 2007 11:06 PM EDT reply actions  

The only all star I will take is KG thats it. After watching Rondo for another game. I am positive he can be our future. Perk has got a lot of heart and look how long it took Wallace to develop. Perk just needs to rebound and defend. Jefferson is going to be a f’n beast next year.

Why am I saying this, well because I think we are going to get either 3 or 4. However, if we get 2 and we land Durant I will be in heaven. Rondo will turn into a 15/14/6 guy and the men in green within 4 years will be an East contender.

Doc for one more year of continuity only just bec I don’t what other coaches will be available. If we trade Jefferson I will only be happy with a Garnett return.

by richardlight86 on Apr 16, 2007 11:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Me I still think it’s the one or two pick and after that we look to trade it for a vet. Me, I still like Gasol for the right price, but would explore the others.

by The Real Alaska on Apr 17, 2007 1:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Since the rest of the league knows we don’t want the pick if it’s #3 or worse, I’m afraid we’ll be low-balled. They know how young we are, that the last thing we need is another 20 year old.

If it ultimately comes to packaging the pick with other players, I hope Danny puts Rondo in the same ‘off limits’ category as PP and Al. My hunch is that other teams will know they can’t get Al so they’ll go after Rondo — and with good reason. Rondo’s numbers in 23 games as a starter are solid: 9.9 PPG, 46% shooting, 5.4 rpg, 5.6 apg, 2.4 spg.

Ideally, I want to trade the pick — but if we’re not gonna get good value for it or if we have to give up Rondo — I’d rather Danny draft someone. He’s done it well before.

by Lunchpail Eddie on Apr 17, 2007 2:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Oden
Durant
Hibbert
Brewer

The consensus 1 and 2 and two good defenders at 3 and 4.

by Mon on Apr 17, 2007 6:42 AM EDT reply actions  

I am not sure how good Noah really is, but I am sure he will be earning 10 million dollars in five years. And if he goes to right team (Phoenix?), he will probably earn those millions with some rings in his fingers.

by Galiza Ceive on Apr 17, 2007 7:14 AM EDT reply actions  

19.9? You must be kidding. Every true Celtic fan knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that our chance of getting one of the first two picks is 0.0000000. Sad but true.

by Celtsfansince55 on Apr 17, 2007 7:28 AM EDT reply actions  

I do not favor taking Noah at 3-4. But the rationale for doing it goes like this: Rondo is a special talent, one you could even build an offense around. But you’d need running players to complement him. Right now, the only guy who runs with Rondo is … Delonte. Yes, Delonte. If the Cs had a big who could really run, that would be another piece of a running team. Noah can run. Ergo …

That Ford called the Rondo pick (He wasn’t the only one, “Chris” did too.) would be consistent with him calling another “running player” pick, Noah.

by Eeyore III on Apr 17, 2007 7:31 AM EDT reply actions  

I like Noah as the third pick. he is more ready to play than wright and he plays with more passion than wright. he doesn’t need the ball to score and he would fit in well with a running attack ksince that is how Fla played. His O is weak but he is athletic enough that he could improve there. I could see him becoming a duncan like player with time

by Red2 on Apr 17, 2007 8:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Red2 – A Duncan-like player with time?! You have completely lost it!! He is a Curt Rambis type player and that is all he will ever be. What you see right now is as good as it gets. He has a big heart and is a scrapper, but not really gifted. He is a legitimate mid to late round player and a nice energy guy off the bench, but comparing him to Duncan… Maybe he is Duncan-like in the fact that he is tall and has arms and legs. He is more Varaejo (sp?) -like… I’d give you that. I wouldn’t mind him on my team, but if we draft him in the top 5 we are in big trouble.

by EJPLAYA on Apr 17, 2007 9:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Man it’s official, CelticsBlog hates Joakim Noah. I wonder if other fanbases are like this? Do any of you frequent other team’s blogs? It would be interesting to see if other teams had similar polls. Jeff?

by scotthp49 on Apr 17, 2007 9:31 AM EDT reply actions  

Hate? We just saw Noah play. He has no jumper, no post moves and he’s foul prone. He’s somewhere between Anderson Varejao and Dan Gadzuric. Not lotto talent.

by Brickowski on Apr 17, 2007 9:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Come on Brick, Red2 says he is the second coming of Tim Duncan?!

100% agree on Noah…

by EJPLAYA on Apr 17, 2007 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Roy Hobbs, i too was being sarcastic, suggesting that Brickowski’s position was more speculative than yours, which you very nicely pointed out with Jack Mac’s article…

by ssspence on Apr 17, 2007 12:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Sorry, man. I was responding to both you and Brick in conjunction; I didn’t mean to sound like a jerk.

by Roy_Hobbs on Apr 17, 2007 12:46 PM EDT reply actions  

If he can get an ugly-looking-but-effective 3 point shot, Noah has the chance to be the poor man’s Shawn Marion. Ironically, that would probably make him number 1 in the draft last year, but this year – too much talent to waste the 3rd pick on him

by Cullain on Apr 17, 2007 4:56 PM EDT reply actions  

I would be ecstatic if Noah could hit jumpers all the way out to the FT line.

So what leads you to believe he will ever have an even half-decent 3 point shot?

by ucn33 on Apr 17, 2007 5:21 PM EDT reply actions  

I believe if the Celtics get Durant or Oden they might trade a current player along with the second pick for a veteran player. The draft is so deep this might be the year to do this.

If they do not get Durant or Oden then anything can happen they could trade their 1st and second pick and try to get 2 lower number 1 picks. I hope they try to get big men it would be nice to have the height along with talent to compete with any team. We seem to never stay in the same drafting position for both picks so going on history here.

by CelticsWin on Apr 18, 2007 12:25 PM EDT reply actions  

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