Celtic Suicide Hotline: (Possible) Life After Oden and Durant
As the NBA season comes to a close, there has been a disturbing tenor running rampant on the message boards concerning the team’s “need†for one of the top 2 picks. While the prospect of adding Greg Oden or Kevin Durant is truly ideal, there is life after those selections.
I’ve posted two articles attempting to explain the potential buyers market this NBA offseason is going to be, especially for a team holding a high pick in this lucrative draft. Not getting one of the first two picks certainly will cost the Celtics more of their existent talent, but a quality return can be had without liquidating its primary youthful asset, Al Jefferson.
A complementary frontcourt All Star for Jefferson to play with and develop alongside of is an obvious boon, as teams with two frontcourt studs are rare and always successful. {styleboxjp width=300px,float=right,color=black,textcolor=white,echo=yes}But the premise that this team cannot acquire a high-level frontcourt talent without relinquishing Jefferson is false. If may be difficult or improbable, but not impossible.{/styleboxjp}
The Hickman and Gilroy show this evening lambasted all Celtics fans that believe in a positive alternative to the Oden/Durant sweepstakes. They stated in particular that there was zero possibility of acquiring Paul Gasol without trading Jefferson, sighting that Memphis would “demand it.†The logic is that the Celtics actually don’t have any valuable trade commodities beyond Jefferson, Rondo, and the pick.
MY contention is that the pick in and of itself is a substantial chip in this offseason market, and that trades depend much more on the circumstances surrounding the teams looking to consummate a major deal. There are innumerable permutations and out-of-site issues that prevent many deals from coming down, but a laymen’s starting point for understanding what may happen this offseason begins and ends with knowing the basic principles surrounding the NBA trade market.
The following is just a simple breakdown of the potential contenders for Pau Gasol based on nothing more than the assets and team scenarios that would be necessary to satisfy all parties involved: Memphis, Gasol, and Gasol’s prospective team…
1. What teams have the mix of expiring money and prospects to consummate a deal with the Grizz. (Its known league-wide that the Grizz will look to move money and build through cheap, exciting talent.)
2. Out of those teams, which are franchises that currently have another superstar or a legit chance of becoming better to the point of satisfying Gasol's desires? (Like it or not, superstar players do have an influence in the trade process because the receiving team needs assurances they're not getting a malcontent.)
3. Additionally, which teams are in a position to acquire a Gasol-level player as the logical move for team building going forward? (IE, teams aren't going to trade Gasol for Pierce, KG for Jason Kidd, etc...its going to be prospects and expiring deals for rebuilding in exchange for big time vet helping new team take next step.)
If you factor in these 3 points, the market for these players shrinks from 30 teams to about 6 to 8. I won’t count Toronto in this equation because of the infeasibility of trading Bargnani a year after obtaining him and the lack of high-end youth on their roster. Out of the “contending†teams:
The Bulls, Hawks, and Bobcats don't have the contracts to match in order to acquire, and only the Bulls would be an attractive landing place from Pau's perspective.
Portland has the contracts and the young talent, but would be a hard-sell for Pau, could be a contender though.
The Lakers have Andrew Bynum, which is their biggest chip, and they've got expiring deals, so they could certainly be in play.
Seattle has some interesting talent, a pick, and some contracts, but is in utter disarray. They're not attractive to Pau, have ownership issues, and are searching for a new stadium.
Phoenix could be a dark horse if they are hell-bent on switching it up and having more of a traditional center who can run. They've got three draft picks and could trade one of their core guys. Phoenix has sworn they're not taking on more money and wouldn't with a Marion/Pau swap for example, but there have been rumblings from Suns ownership about cutting cost via leveraging their picks to justify a glorified dump of Marion-hence the Noah and Durant rumors...
Boston has Pierce as a lure for Gasol. Keeping Jefferson out of the equation the team has a 3-5 pick as an asset, Gerald Green, Rajon Rondo, Delonte West. Plus the team's own pick in ‘09 and/or Minny's future pick. Not the top possible offer, but certainly in contention with the other two most viable options.
People may not want to hear names like Rondo or Green in that equation, but it’s the reality of making a play for a major player of Gasol’s stature. Its not a LIKELY scenario, but its feasible from a talent perspective.
One has to remember that Memphis has its own pick, top 4 and is looking to rebuild via cheap talent that will draw fan interest. The Celtics pick would give the Memphis team two picks in the top 5 of possibly the deepest draft in NBA history-this has value for a franchise that would be looking at 4 cheap years out of two elite talents. Memphis has Gay/Warrick/M. Miller, so they're looking for a C/PF/PG with SG being a viable option as one of Miller/Gay/Warrick would come off the bench, none are ideal 2-guards.
A Boston deal can give Memphis 3 of those 4 needs while Memphis' own pick fills the 4th need. It covers the cost angle and the excitement angle as well. Phoenix deal is probably the best option for both Pau and Memphis, with the Suns having 3 first round picks to play with as well. But, Phoenix is perhaps the least likely to make this type of move, so they are predicated on participation.
The Lakers are looking for another big time piece, and have the Bynum chip. I'd think they're the market leader for any big based off of the parameters stipulated above.
The good news is, these parameters apply to the market for KG and JO as much as they do for Gasol. Additionally, Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, Gerald Wallace, Vince Carter, Ray Allen, and Rashard Lewis are lurking in the weeds. There are only so many teams that have the assets to acquire these players...with that being considered, the probability of the Celtics landing a player of some stature is very high.
It should be noted that the team could ultimately decide that retaining the player available with the draft pick IS the best alternative to trading away any of the team’s most valuable core youth. Ainge has enjoyed a sport rarity in having the support of ownership in regards to long-term thinking. The Celtics as currently constructed are not a common occurrence, more so because of the market that’s allowed this process to transpire. Ainge gets knocked around a lot for trying to rebuild while remaining competitive, but that very well may have been the only way to get an impatient fan base to buy into the “youth movement†long enough to actually pull it off.
The purpose of this piece is another attempt to mitigate the “suicide factor†I can just see brewing with the possibility of May 22nd not working out as well as we’d all like. There is life after Oden and Durant, though they are the ideal. The team is going to play the market and make the move that fits their interests best. What those interests are is beyond our knowledge and must account for the less glamorous details of the industry.
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Yea but Eric you’re missing the point here. It isn’t about the Celtics not having options if they don’t acquire Durant or Oden. It’s about them NOT acquiring Durant or Oden. To be this close to 2 players who could literally change the shape of your franchise for the next 15 years, is going to make any fan get a little ansy, especially a Boston one.
I do agree with you though, if we do not get Durant or Oden, I think we definitely have options. One of those options would be to just keep the draft pick. I mean you just said it yourself, this is one of the most deep drafts in recent memory. Let’s not start overlooking the Wright’s (both), Horford’s and Noah’s of this draft. While neither of these players compare to Durant or Oden, they all have the potential to be all stars. So why get rid of Green or Rondo or a guy like Horford when we can just build a team around them?
Eric, that was a great article but why all the negative talk? The real target of your article should be on WHO we pick when we get the 1st or 2nd pick, right? Chad Ford had a great article today on espn.com that gave the top 5 reasons why going with Durant might be a better move. I cannot understand why Kevin Durant would not be the number 1 pick in the draft, no matter which team is drafting. There is no question that Greg Oden is a beast and will potentially be the next great big man on the defensive end in the NBA.
However, Kevin Durant just completed one of the finest college seasons in the history of NCAA hoops. He is miles ahead of Oden on the offensive end, already at an offensive level where Oden could only dream about someday getting to. And on top of that, Durant was a beastly rebounder this year and proved he can block shots. Durant has proven there is nothing he can’t do, and has the potential to be truly great. Greg Oden may have the shot blocking skills of a Bill Russell, but he has nowhere near the intelligence that Russell had, and that is why Oden will never be anywhere near the player he was.
by modawg3434 on Apr 19, 2007 5:59 PM EDT reply actions
I had a dream about a starting five of Jermaine O’Neal, Paul Pierce, Kevin Durant, Delonte West, and Rajon Rondo. I woke up with a smile on my face.
by halfman/halfoyster on Apr 19, 2007 6:41 PM EDT reply actions
Our first priority this offseason should be to correct our roster imballance. We need size inside, especially defensive help, and ideally a big man with some offense as well. The big should be athletic so that he can control a larger zone inside.
We need a solid back-up PG who can start if needed. West has filled this role in the past but he’s not the prototype we need. We should look for a veteran PG, if a suitable one is available, or obtain such a PG through trade, free agency or with the 32nd pick.
Our drafting strategy should remain to take the best talent available either for trade purposes or to strengthen our roster. Depending upon which position that player fills (if kept by us) will determine what additional moves are required to obtain/maintain roster balance.
Everyone is looking to get bigger, faster and more balanced as a team. We should have similar aims. While Oden would certainly fit the bill, one can’t overlook the exciting talent that Durant brings. There are other players, less heralded, but with the athleticism, size and talent that could. in time, satisfy our needs as well. Just who they may be is anybody’s guess.
In the last analysis, we need players with a high basketball IQ so that their development won’t take forever (ala Green).
by moskqq on Apr 19, 2007 7:09 PM EDT reply actions
Stop EricW just stop it! You’re making too much sense. I also don’t see the all or nothing picture. If there is no Oden or Durant, guess what there are still ways to get better. This offseason’s “pickings” appears to be the largest ensemble of available talent in recent memory. Now like a praying mantis Ainge should wait and ambush his prey.
I have to admit though Danny makes me nervous when it comes to trades but maybe just maybe he hits a home run.
With a draft filled with so much talent, Danny could trade down for mutiple picks. I doubt he would adopt this straegy if Durant were still on the board but he could do so if Durant were gone and Oden was still there. Imagine obtaining 3 first round draft choices in the first round of a strong draft. To do what might appear “insane”, trading Oden, could happen if Danny thinks that the possibility of obtaining three excellent players outweighs keeping Oden.
by moskqq on Apr 19, 2007 7:23 PM EDT reply actions
I think #3 or #4 pick, theo’s expiring contract, and another player such as gomes or telfair would be enough to get Gasol. Do NOT trade rondo however. I feel that Memphis would not want Gerald anyway because they already have a surplus of wing players. Gasol, Jefferson, Pierce, Green or Wally, and Rondo is a nice starting five.
Is there an reasonable way we could end up with either Durant or Oden or package the pick and Green/Gomes for a guy like Gasol and also add a high quality free agent like Billups? I am assuming the answer is “heck no” for various reasons or that the answer is “highly unlikely” because of cap reasons…after reading some of the articles today I too started to fanasize about crazy things like: Oden, Al, PP, Billups, Rajon or Gasol, Al, PP, Billups, Rajon…crazy
Suicide will be definitely an option if we get the first pick and we dont draft Oden. Al and Perk dont want Oden so we wont draft him? But we can draft Durant even if he takes away playing time from PP, GG, Tony? Danny better get his act together. You dont pass on the best Center to be available since Duncan just cause two high schoolers who are just learning to play w/o diapers dont want to share playing time to him. We have a saying in Spanish that is translated along the lines of: “Geese are shooting at the shotguns”, which is the literal translation, but “Gesse shooting at the hunters” sounds more to the point. lolol
There is NO WAY the Celtics can acquire Gasol, JO or KG without taking a huge luxury tax hit in 2008-2009 UNLESS they either (1) trade Pierce, or (2) unload Szdczerbiak as part of the deal (.000000001 probability of that happening). And the owners won’t do it.
It’s all discussed in excricuating detail here, on celticsblog:
http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=64&topic=3851.0
If they don’t get pick 1 or 2, draft Mike Conley, Corey Brewer or Tiago Splitter. Alternative, try to trade down to acquire multiple picks. If they got both Splitter and Rudy Hernandez in this draft, I would be ecstatic, although not so ecstatic as if they had landed Oden.
ssspence – A team is not allowed to trade future first round picks in consecutive years if they only have one each year. Thus if the premise is they would use the 2007 pick in the 3-5 range as part of a package, before the draft, then they could not also trade the 2008 pick in that package, the 2009 pick would be the next one they could trade (unless they picked up another 2008 one before “the trade” and that would be difficult because it would almost certainly have protections where it might not get conveyed to Boston).
However, a couple things could happen. If the Cs had an agreement in principle with a team before the draft, they could wait I believe, until after the draft to consummate the trade and then include their 2008 pick as well because the 2007 pick would no long be a future pick. If they did this before the drafed player signed, then the player has $0 value in the deal (you are basically trading his rights). The thing I’m not sure about is whether he is still considered a future pick if he is unsigned, so that might be a fly in the ointment. But if they wanted that rookie contract as part of the money balance in the deal, they could sign the pick, wait 30 days, then consummate the trade including the 2008 pick.
The simpler way to put the 2008 pick into play in a draft day deal, is to get another 2007 first round pick. For example, they could trade the 32nd pick with either a current player or say one of their second rounders in 2008 (their own or Portland’s) to move up a few slots into the late first round. I think if they do this deal first, get league approval, then they could deal both their 2007 and 2008 picks in a package. In fact, that is one of the slight downsides in trading the 2007 Cleveland pick the Cs owned to Phoenix last year to select Rondo, it would have allowed the Cs to deal the 2007 and 2008 picks without any problem. Obviously, Rondo seems well worth that move though. I’m sure the Cs could make a play for one of those 2 Phoenix picks in the 20s, or any number of other picks if they were so inclined.
Is this team not young enough? Why would we ever trade down to add even more rookies???? Isn’t 8 developing players enough?
Even if we do get Oden or Durrant, if we don’t clear out some of these youngsters for some real NBA players, we are going no where. Its time the love affair with the draft ends and we start actually competing.
Ainge’s reputation rests on this offseason. Drafting well isn’t good enough, an impact trade NEEDS to be made.
Splitter and Hernandez are experienced International players. Both are top ten Euroleague players— you know, the same kind of guys who humiliated the US in the Olympics and also beat the U.S. international team in the most recent World Championships.
You can’t compare these guys to college players, particularly college underclassmen. It’s as if they had a year or two in the NBA already. They have been playing against men, not boys.
Let’s face it. No Oden / Durant = no line of sight to a championship in the future. Any other roster scenario, be it with Gasol under some miracle deal, or with an Al Horford type puts the Celtics in much better shape than today, but into the top 1/3 of teams at best. The leverage of drafting Oden/Durant is that if the Celtics soon become 1 player away from a ring, they could actually get veterans to come to Boston as free agents. Why wouldn’t a point guard want to dish to PP, Jeff, and Oden?
by Austin Celts Fan on Apr 19, 2007 11:18 PM EDT reply actions
Fair enough, Brick. I haven’t seen either of them play and I do trust your opinion. I just feel like EricW made some really good points about our ability to land a top flight AllStar.
This team more than any other in the league, is desperate for seasoned, NBA experience. As good as those guys will probably be, I feel that our assets would be better spent on one of the abudant quality, playoff proven veteran allstars that will be on the block this offseason.
Well, I’m on record as advocating that Ainge’s two top targets should be Marcus Camby and Boris Diaw. Both are quality veterans who could be pieces to the championship puzzle, and both would allow the Celtics to retain Jefferson and some (but not all) of their youth without paying excessive luxury tax and without giving up our lotto pick.
Camby, Jefferson, Pierce, Allen and Rondo, with West, Perkins and Corey Brewer (for example) coming off the bench would win the Atlantic Division. If coached by someomne other than Rivers, that team could win the EC if everyone stayed healthy.
If you can acquire Diaw instead of Camby, you go after a big player in the draft: Splitter or Hawes. Then you look like:
Jefferson, Diaw, Pierce, Allen and Rondo, with West, Perkins and Splitter off the bench. That’s smaller but quicker, with three excellent defenders in the starting lineup and two more coming off the bench.
Presumably GG and Gomes (along with Ratliff) would be part of the trade used to acquire Camby or Diaw. You fill out the rest of the roster with Powe, your second round pick (e.g. Derrick Byars), the untradeable Szczerbiak, Scalabrine and a veteran free agent or two signed for the minimum (e.g. Adrian Griffin). Telfair and Ray are cut, although you may keep Ray and send him to the D-League.
I like both of those teams. And if you could swing a mid-first round pick to add a guy like Rudy Fernandez, you would really be off to the races.
Ther is life after durant and Oden and I hope it does not start by giving up our lottery player to another team. we can make the playoff with doing anything.
if helthy. this year as an example if we had stayed healthy and won 30 pecent of the 35 game paul missed we could have made the playoffs this year.
Team in recent years have gotten better with lottery pick and trades for non supper star missing pieces like toronto, chicago, cleveland clippers et al as an example.
Take the best player avaiable and look and see who want to make a deal. we might get by with future picks rather than this year. most of the teams we percieved to have super stars we want are also in the lottery. thus they could get the pieces to turn things around. so can we. without giving up our lottery pick this year.
I think we give players for the best avaiable player to help us by making and impact.
by Freeease1 on Apr 20, 2007 12:23 AM EDT reply actions
Brickowski — those are two very interesting, and very different, pieces. But Camby in perennially injured — he’s played more than 70 games twice during his career. And Diaw, while multi-dimensional, is primarily an offensive player who plays the 3-4 — he’s only 6’8. We have Big Al and Paul so I don’t know what he’d add.
I’d put money Rondo is right after Paul and Al on Danny’s core list. Gerald is the piece most likely to move.
by Lunchpail Eddie on Apr 20, 2007 2:56 AM EDT reply actions
what we need the most, we won’t get- a new coach. obviously we all want oden/durant. other than that we need experienced height and smart players. camby is a big delonte, ie injury prone. we don’t need more than 1 young player. i would like to get brewer and trade for a big man. is theo a wild card, ie will he be healthy, or is he a big chip?
Besides who we have, If we want to acquire an “all star” this summer we should think about who are we willing to take with the good guy. For instance, if we want to land Gasol, we could try to exchange Perk or Scal for Cardinal, or if we want to take Garnett we should also have to take Jaric.
I know those are very bad deals but perhaps its the only way of not giving any of our good players.
well said brickowski. Eric, if you listen closely to Hickman and Gilroy, you would also know that they said they don’t trust Danny’s trades. Sorry but his record isn’t very good. This is why getting one of the top picks is important. It would stop Danny from doing something stupid. Both Hickman and Gilroy were very clear as to why they don’t won’t Danny making trades…..
by truthteam17 on Apr 20, 2007 8:26 AM EDT reply actions
Best Options in my mind:
1. Pick 1: Draft Oden; Aquire experienced guard (Bibby?)
2. Pick 2: Draft Durrant; trade to Phoenix (rumor from Phoenix) for Marion and 4th-5th which would be Yi Yialian (looks good on youtube clips but that is the only resourse I have seen); Aquire experienced guard (Bibby?)
3. Pick 3-5: Draft Yi Yialian; Aquire experienced guard (Bibby?)
This must be based on if Danny evaluates that Yi is as good as Noah or Horford or any other of these American “AAU kids”.
Then think of the marketing possiblities for the Celtics with the “belove” Chinese kid. Basketball is becoming as big in China as baseball is in Japan and the Celts would have China’s “star”. DiceK all over again; Celts can become very International. Celtics shirts selling in China; PP would be a fool not to welcome that opportunity just as the Red Sox players are understanding their international appeal due to the exposure with DiceK on their team.
by 4thgenfan on Apr 20, 2007 8:27 AM EDT reply actions
I’m basically with Brickowski and Freease1. There’s an abundance of bigs in this year’s draft; even if we get #3 or #4, we can still just pick the big who Danny judges to be the best chemistry fit with Big Al (I think Splitter, if only because Hawes requires seasoning whereas Tiago is ready to start tomorrow), maybe trade up somewhat from #32 to get another piece (Rudy Fernandez?) and we’ll be set to take a giant step forward next season.
But if any of the NBA stars somehow become available at a REASONABLE price, well, cross that bridge when we come to it.
I agree that we are putting too much hope into the draft being our savior. Nothing is guaranteed with the 1 or 2 picks. It’s not like the old days where the consensus 1 and 2 picks were four year college players and even then there were no sure things—Joe Barry Carroll, the guy picked by Portland before Jordan. I also don’t like O’Neill or Camby here. Gasol is okay if we can get him cheap. Would not give up Al, Perk, Rondo for anyone. Am on the fence about GG, but would like to give him one or two more years unless we get a sure shot player for him if he is involved in a trade.
I wouldn’t argue with Brick about the luxury tax issue. I would like to think it is not true. But considering the type of corporate vermin that own sports franchises these days, it would certainly make sense that the Celtics owners with their new publicly funded arena and huge market would be too cheap to pay any luxury tax in order to make the team competetive. That said if the team could get Gasol while keeping Jefferson and the draft pick, the team would be very competetive.
by JohnCK on Apr 20, 2007 10:05 AM EDT reply actions
True Green- Sam Bowie was picked ahead of Jordan, not Joe Barry Carroll. Come on man!!
Camby is exactly what we do NOT need here. He is ALWAYS injured. He has averaged 26 missed games earch year of his career. Isn’t that what we griped about with Raef and Theo?! He is a very nice player when healthy, but can’t stay on the floor. Another big salaried injury prone big guy would be a big mistake.
Gasol has 2 seasons where he missed 26 and 13 games. The other 4 he was pretty much full season. I don’t think he quite qualifies. O’Neal has been injured a fair amount the last 3 years though but don’t think he fits into the Marcus Camby level of injury.
To compliment Big Al I would think Gasol would be the better player for us though. I think that O’Neal is a little too similar to Al’a game and they would get in each others way.
Diaw is a nice player, but it would probably take a lot to get the Suns to let him go…
EJPLAYA said:
“Diaw is a nice player, but it would probably take a lot to get the Suns to let him go…”
No, because the Suns are another team (along with Denver) in luxury tax hell. Either Diaw or Marion will be gone before next year’s trading deadline, either to a team like the Bobcats that is way under the cap, or to a team with a big expiring deal (e.g. Boston or the Lakers). In return, Phoenix will also want inexpensive prospects and/or draft picks.
truthteam17 said:
well said brickowski. Eric, if you listen closely to Hickman and Gilroy, you would also know that they said they don’t trust Danny’s trades. Sorry but his record isn’t very good. This is why getting one of the top picks is important. It would stop Danny from doing something stupid. Both Hickman and Gilroy were very clear as to why they don’t won’t Danny making trades…..
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That’s fine, if you subscribe to the idea that Ainge doesn’t trade well…frankly, I think 99 percent of Celtics fans just don’t understand the purpose of the trades and FA acquisitions this team has made…most of the moves this team has made have been done to accomidate the core youth that the team has been building around…personally, I think Ainge has done pretty well in most of his transactions, but people forget the circumstances around them or simply ignore them…everybody wants a superstar for nothing, but sometimes you’ve got to make deals that help facilitate the growth of players ALREADY on the roster. Most, if not all of Ainge’s trades have been made to promote the developmental environment of the players he’s drafted, this was the case with the WallyZ trade, the first Walker trade, as well as the Telfair/Raef move-3 moves that are most widely criticized…
The market for what was exchanged in those deals was virtually non-existant, so you can’t expect to come out with a “steal” in those scenarios…the primary goal of those trades was to rid the team of contract players who had been weighed, measured, and determined to not fit in with the core players still under evaluation…
signings like Scalabrine, Googs, Dickau, James, etc…were all a part of bringing in smart complementary vets who could fill a small role and give younger players some life-lessons as they made their way through the initial NBA indoctrination…
Thus far, I haven’t seen Ainge consumate a trade that was made from a team position of strength-ie, where the Celtis aren’t trying to facilitate the movement of parts with baggage in exchange for other baggage…this offseason the team will be playing in a trade market in a way they have not done before, which is an entirely different scenario then when a team is attempting to move players due to circumstances of locker room chemistry, finances, and things of that nature…
by BillfromBoston on Apr 20, 2007 11:39 AM EDT reply actions
EricW, I agree with most of what you said except for the first Walker trade. That was impulsive and dumb, and had far-reaching negative ramifications.
The Telfair trade has been widely criticized, but if Ainge hadn’t made it, we wouldn’t even be talking about acquiring a good veteran player this Summer. We’d have zero chance without Ratliff’s expiring contract. Randy Foye is no great prize, although you can make an argument that Rudy Gay would look good in Green.
Yes, googs, scal, dickau, and james…none of them have worked out. I guess us Celtics fans are too dumb to understand why danny makes these moves then. One year after Danny traded Antoine, Dallas traded him for Jason Terry, and that has worked out nicely. I agree with bringing in character guys, but how about some guys that can play. Raef’s knee, Wally’s ankles…both making max dollars…but they are “nice” guys. You also mention the market in which they were traded was non-existent. Then why trade? I realize Mark Blount was a pain in the butt, and ricky was a little wild, but they could have waited. The telfair move may turn out to help us with Theo’s contract, but we better hope that the market can help us this offseason. Don’t blame the market, blame the man making the deals. The truth is, they wanted to get young players as chips to deal. Once they couldn’t deal them, the team started losing and now we keep getting young because we have high draft picks.
by truthteam17 on Apr 20, 2007 11:59 AM EDT reply actions
EricW
Excellent points; in leagues of guaranteed contracts sometimes it is a matter of not what you have but what you don’t have or what you can get rid of.
by 4thgenfan on Apr 20, 2007 12:08 PM EDT reply actions
One other point, EricW. Ainge may have made certain trades for chemistry reasons, but who was it who traded two great locker room guys (Battie and EWill) for Ricky Davis? Who drafted Marcus Banks? And who signed Mark Blount to that ridiculous deal?
Maybe Ainge should have given more thought to the “development enviromnet” before he made those moves, don’t you think?
Almost every trade or free agent signing Danny has made, the player coming here can not stay on the court, or has had a prolonged injury while a celtic(Theo, Dickau, Lafrentz, Wally, Jiri Welsch, Scals, Kandi) If you are considering these smart trades to complement the youth then so be it….Sounds more like a used-car salesman approach for defending a GM who can not make a good trade. I mean….look at these “quality” players and tell me if you want these vets teaching your future when they can’t play themselves??
I totally agree truthhurts. Let’s also remember that Danny put so many young players on the court at once, they are teaching each other bad habits.
by truthteam17 on Apr 20, 2007 2:28 PM EDT reply actions
Brickowski said:
One other point, EricW. Ainge may have made certain trades for chemistry reasons, but who was it who traded two great locker room guys (Battie and EWill) for Ricky Davis? Who drafted Marcus Banks? And who signed Mark Blount to that ridiculous deal?
Maybe Ainge should have given more thought to the “development enviromnet” before he made those moves, don’t you think?
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There is quite a bit of revisionist history in this and some of the above statements by others..
Banks was Ainge’s first pick and he’d been on the job for far too short a time to have done a full scouting profile on that years draft class…I credit him for finding Perkins at #27 and accept that with little time to prep, Marcus wasn’t a poor selection based off of his other-wordly physical skills…
Ricky Davis wasn’t a locker room cancer by any stretch, it was Blount and Banks who were the locker room problems. Ricky was a high-maintanance personality, but every player in the Celtics locker room had nothing but good things to say about him. The main issue with Ricky is that he was too friendly with Pierce and was undermining his authority with the rest of the youth-like your father telling you not to do something and then your uncle sneaking you away to do it anyways…Ricky was a goofball and the team wanted more seriousness from its veteran mentors..
The Blount signing is tough to pin on Ainge because of two main factors. A. Everyone in the media and 99 percent of the fans were clamoring for him to sign Blount as a test of his competency after Obrian left and all of that. B. Blount was/is a hard working player, but Ainge had no way of knowing how poorly he’d get along with Rivers and how much of a malcontent he’d be on the team…Blount has since gone back to being productive…nothing rediculous about a mid-level deal for a center who gives you 12 and 7, just wasn’t the right mix of personalities for him to do it here…
To truth’s statement talking about the signings that “haven’t worked out” is a matter of understanding what these players were suppose to do for the team. All of them were meant to be support players with possitive influences on the youngsters. None of these players was brought in to be a main rotation player or a longterm solution to any problems, even Scal. In this industry 1.5-3.5 million dollar commitments are nothing. In fact, those types of contracts are excellent to have on the books because of how move-able they are and how necissary they become when trying to facilitate a bigger, better deal…
As Ainge said, there are moves that they wouldn’t do again. Scal, Blount, and Raef trades are all on there. But, none of those moves have been crippling ones to the organization and all have at least returned a solid value in some way shape or form…
Regardless, we haven’t seen Ainge make a trade from a posistion of STRENGTH…this is night and day different from attempting to unload certain players…so, I have no fear in this regard because I know that Ainge knows talent and he’ll be weighing pure talent against pure talent, not trying to trick another team into taking unwanted contracts in exchange for value…
truthteam17 said:
Yes, googs, scal, d**kau, and james…none of them have worked out. I guess us Celtics fans are too dumb to understand why danny makes these moves then. One year after Danny traded Antoine, Dallas traded him for Jason Terry, and that has worked out nicely. I agree with bringing in character guys, but how about some guys that can play. Raef’s knee, Wally’s ankles…both making max dollars…but they are “nice” guys. You also mention the market in which they were traded was non-existent. Then why trade? I realize Mark Blount was a pain in the butt, and ricky was a little wild, but they could have waited. The telfair move may turn out to help us with Theo’s contract, but we better hope that the market can help us this offseason. Don’t blame the market, blame the man making the deals. The truth is, they wanted to get young players as chips to deal. Once they couldn’t deal them, the team started losing and now we keep getting young because we have high draft picks.
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The points your making here aren’t NBA FACT, there opinion, and Ainge had a different opinion when it came to “just waiting” with Walker, Blount, and Telfair…You mentioned that Walker netted Dallas Terry, who wasn’t available the year before btw…But, Walker had an out-clause in his contract and elected not to excorcise it as a good faith gesture to Dallas. There is no guarentee that Walker would have been so amenable to Ainge considering their cantankorous relationship. My bet is Walker would have hit the open market and the Celtics wouldn’t have West, Allen, or Rondo because of it…
No GM is perfect, but Ainge has avoided making a deal that has hurt this team and has, for the most part, gotten a decent return from the flawed pieces he’s moved…
There’s no doubt that Wally and Raef would be better for the team if they played more during their time here, but I do believe that fair value was gotten in those exchanges, especially the Blount/Ricky deal-not because of Ricky but because of the virtual impossability of moving Blount any other way and how detrimental he was to locker room cohesion…
coincidentilly, that Minnesota pick that no one is really thinking about may actually be THE most significant chip on the Celtics horizon…regardless of what happens in this draft, the C’s shouldn’t be in a position for a lottery pick for quite some time. Minny on the other hand is abou to go into a 3-5 year lottery cycle barring some incredible luck on their part, so that draft pick should yield a player for the C’s that they’d never be able to acquire on their own…
I understand the Terry wasn’t available the year before. That is why I wouldn’t have traded Walker for Lafrentz, and good ol’ Jiri Welsh. As far as Tony Allen and Delonte West, West is a solid role player at most. HIs time here has been decent. Tony Allen, for all the potential, has done very little for this organization except shoot himself into trouble…literally. He showed flashes of brilliance when PP went down, then ended that quickly with a stupid dunk that didn’t matter. His best asset was his defense and explosive first step, which he will no longer have after this type of injury. He will be a good defender, but that’s about it. His trade value is gone.
by truthteam17 on Apr 20, 2007 3:24 PM EDT reply actions
By the way, Danny said he put all these young guys together as chips…but he hasn’t been able to move any of them because we over-value these players.
by truthteam17 on Apr 20, 2007 3:26 PM EDT reply actions
Brickowski said:
EricW, I agree with most of what you said except for the first Walker trade. That was impulsive and dumb, and had far-reaching negative ramifications.
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Let’s talk plainly here for a minute Brick…
What are the far-reaching negative ramifications of that deal? I do agree that the team good have allowed his money to simply come off the books, but when a player like Walker is going to be moved on the team typically wants to get a guarenteed return for him…
I understand that Raef didn’t work out, but they did get the assets needed to eventually acquire Allen, West, and Rajon Rondo…some people don’t like to acredit that, but there is no disconnecting the asset-chain. Without the Raef deal there would have been no pieces to acquire those players…speculation on “purchasing” a first round pick is spurious at best, as teams rarely “sell” first rounders and any other trade/acuisition scenario is purely hypothetical. Based off the talent on that team’s roster, i have my doubts that there would have been another way to acrew the assets needed to get those 3 picks that turned out to be 3 quality youngsters for this team…
I’m sure you have thoughts on what possabilities there were with Walker, and there were certainly some to be sure, i’d just like to hear what you thought would have been better, BUT not from a revisionist perspective where “obvious” choices like trading with Toronto for the 4th pick and Antoino Davis’ HUGE deal look like a no-brainer now….
Historically: The problem that Danny had inhereted was a roster that was not very good (a gimmick team); the draft picks durning the Patino / O’brien tenoir consisted of:
2002 – no 1st round pick
2001 – the infamous draft of Johnson(gone)before Danny, Brown, Forte.
2000 – Moiso (gone)
1999 – no ist round pick
1998 – Pierce
1997 – Billups (gone), Mercer (gone)
Only Pierce & Brown were around; that is a major gap of non producers to expect continuation to a program. Sure Danny signed Brown and Blount, who were they going to put on the floor at that time? Blount was the only big man left on the team and the Celts had developed him and he still held them hostage in negociation.
by 4thgenfan on Apr 20, 2007 3:36 PM EDT reply actions
I would have looked to move BOTH Walker and Pierce, but not for LaFrentz. I wouldn’t have traded Bruno Sundov for LaFrentz (assuming that were permissible under the CBA).
Ainge didn’t like Walker’s game and didn’t want the team to be “Walker’s team.” Fair enough. But you don’t take on a gimp with a long-term deal in order to do it. He got snookered by the Nelsons, plain and simple. He also misjudged Welsh’s talent.
First round draft picks in the 20’s are available for roughly 2 million in cash. That’s the going rate (I’ll give examples if you like), and they are readily obtainable in other ways. To argue that the trade also produced West and Rondo is bogus. There were plenty of other ways to get those players.
Jeff——have you considered that the celts get durant and gasol. if you are looking at unlikely scenerios you would have to think west, green, ratliff and minni’s future pick is a similar scenerio to west, green, ratliff and our pick if outside the top 2. It would make ainge a god, and it is a long shot…..but we can dream….how about some help red!
by Stuck in Philly on Apr 20, 2007 7:52 PM EDT reply actions
As to the Blount signing, Ainge had no choice. Perk was our only center going into his second year and O’Brien didn’t allow Perk to play in his first. We had no center. I’m not sure if I’m right here, but other centers available that year were way overpriced. Blount was signed for a reasonable price. And the important thing is that Blount doesn’t play here anymore. In his trades Danny hasn’t had alot of choices. Most were to bring in a guy at reasonable cost, give him a try and if it didn’t work to move on. I don’t think Danny had any illusions that these would work. He also didn’t give anything to make these trades. He has undone all the trades we say were bad ones and there has been a consistent upgrade of talent in general. Now Danny is looking for the GOOD trade, not a trial and error or lateral trade. Hopefully he can do it, but it’s not that easy. I also think that going into the luxury tax is fiscally irresponsible so I don’t blame the owners for not doing it.

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