Inside the Numbers - Lottery Data

by Jeff Clark on Apr 23, 2007 2:57 PM EDT in Boston Celtics News & Links

Mike Zarren is a number cruncher extrodinaire for the Celtics and he released this detailed analysis of the lottery percentages based on the final records of all the teams in the lottery.

For you stat-heads, here's a bit of fun with percentages:

We finished with the second-worst record in the league. Figuring out the overall probability of getting any particular pick is a bit tricky, because the odds in the 2nd and 3rd pick drawings depend on who wins the first drawing (for example, if the worst team, which has 250 combinations assigned to it, wins the 1st pick, we have a 199/750=26.5% chance to win the second pick, but if the 14th-worst team, which has only 5 combinations assigned to it, wins, we have only an 199/995=20.0% chance at the second pick -- and the math gets even more complicated when you start working on the third pick). However, we've done the math, and it turns out that entering the lottery, with 199 combinations, the Celtics have a 19.9% chance of getting the top pick, an 18.8% chance of getting the 2nd pick, and a 17.1% chance of getting the 3rd pick. This means that entering the lottery, we have a 38.7% chance of getting a top 2 pick, and a 55.8% chance of getting a top 3 pick.

See, math can be fun!

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Comments

As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.
Albert Einstein,

Sit back, relax and enjoy the mellow sounds of lightly bouncing white ping pong balls filled with fate,luck and hope.

by Master Po on Apr 23, 2007 5:41 PM EDT reply actions

with danny’s skills I expect us to add at least our third best player via the draft. Top 5 pick is gold. Chances of improving our roster: 100%

by LarBrd33 on Apr 23, 2007 6:24 PM EDT reply actions

yea but with his trading skills he will probably set us back again

by meanballa34 on Apr 24, 2007 1:17 AM EDT reply actions

I didn’t think the 14th-worst team could win the top pick?

by FierceLikePaulPierce on Apr 24, 2007 1:50 AM EDT reply actions

Only 29 days left to worry about the darn ping pong balls. I say put everyone out of their misery and hold the lottery drawing right away.

by lemonadesky on Apr 24, 2007 7:10 AM EDT reply actions

When supernatural forces have combined to oppose you, there is little solace to be gained from numbers. Translation: I expect us to get screwed again.

by Celtsfansince55 on Apr 24, 2007 8:38 AM EDT reply actions

Couple things-

First, the #14 is eligible, in fact the Magic hit the lottery once when they were in the situation/

Second, its interesting how the C’s have the best shot at the #2 if Memphis hits the #1… but I’d say the history of the lottery pretty much guarantees that the #1 and #2 won’t go to the worst and second worst teams, in order.

But you’re right Jeff, Math is fun. How would you like to the one adding up the zeroes on Durant’s first shoe deal.

by RodneyRogers on Apr 24, 2007 11:38 AM EDT reply actions