38.7% Ain’t So Bad
As everyone reading this knows by now, the Celtics have a 38.7% shot at getting the number 1 or 2 pick tonight (and thus one of the grand prizes of this year’s draft â€" Greg Oden or Kevin Durant). At first blush, that percentage doesn’t look so great, and we are all bracing ourselves for the worst. But then we started thinking of all of the things that are worse than 38.7%:
1) 34.8% - The Celtics’ combined win-loss record over the past two years.
So the Celtics have a better chance at landing Oden or Durant than they did at winning a game the last 2 years. Feel better? No? Sorry. Let’s continue.
2) 37.1% - Telfair’s 2006-07 shooting percentage (well, shooting percentage with a basketball that is). Unfortunately, we suspect the percentage of nights Danny Ainge woke up his wife while screaming “Brandon Roy!†in his sleep is much higher.
3) 36% - The percent of Americans who can name the current President of Russia. Can you? Yeah, but the first Italian player likely to be drafted this year, that one you know. We’re kind of a disturbed lot, aren’t we?
4) 34.8% - The percentage of regular season games Raef LaFrentz has played in the last four years since being traded from Dallas.  The percentage of games anyone wanted him to play: 0.3%. There was that first one before we discovered how terrible he’d become…
5) 3.3% (estimated) - The odds that Knick fans will cheer their pick on draft night. Since Patrick Ewing in 1985, we think Maciej Lampe is the only player in the last 20 years who got a smattering of applause. How’d that one work out for them?
6) 0.00% - According to basketball-reference.com, the chance that the only former number one pick on the Celtics roster this past season, Michael Olowokandi, will make it into the Hall of Fame. We think it’s lower.
7) -100% - Doc Rivers’ chance of making it into the Hall of Fame as a coach.  Doc actually has to pay double admission to get in as a tourist, and then is only admitted if he agrees not to get within 50 feet of the Red Auerbach bust.
8) 35% - President Bush’s current approval rating.
9) 35% - And, in the spirit of bipartisanship, Congress’ current approval rating. Nice job everyone, keep up the good work.
10)Â ? - The combined current approval ratings among Celtics fans of Wyc, Danny, and Doc (we currently have skilled mathematicians working to find enough digits after the decimal point to produce an actual number).
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As someone pointed out in the forum, the Celts’ odds are actually a little better than 38.7%.
by TNCeltic on May 22, 2007 12:49 PM EDT reply actions
Kamicly the Celtics so deserve this. After Len Bias, Reggie Lewis, Tim Duncan, the Patino era and so fourth no fans in the league deserve this break more than Boston’s. The problem is that Boston fans so don’t deserve another break. Three Super Bowls in four years anyone? Having grown up in a town that lives and dies by its NFL team (Kansas City), I don’t think the typical Boston fan has any clue what it really means to win that many Super Bowls. The typical Patriots fan is just not the same thing as a Chiefs fan or a Steelers fan. The typical Red Sox fan of course is and the team finally won a World Series and has apparently after spending $162 million on their roster become Evil Empire North. So, Boston is going to get Oden or Durrant on top of all that? As a Celtics fan I am sure hoping they do. As a sports fan, I worry that somebody in town has to stink and since the NHL has become a minor league, it looks it might be the Celtics. God I hope I am wrong.
by JohnCK on May 22, 2007 12:56 PM EDT reply actions
If the Celtics don’t get #1 or #2, I guess they’ll have to hire Carmen Electra to be a Celtics dancer and install new strobe lights and an explodng scoreboard at the Fleet Center.
Just ask yourselves what do do with pick #4 after Oden, Durant, and Yi JianLian are taken by the Sonics, Grizzlies and Bucks, respectively, with picks #1-3.
I believe Bush is at 24% approval rating BTW.
by The Real Large James on May 22, 2007 1:33 PM EDT reply actions

Make it happen Tommy, make it happen. Oden Oden Oden.
by Don Babbitt on May 22, 2007 1:36 PM EDT reply actions
I wonder who that guy holding the sign is? God I bet he felt stupid after the lottery and is not happy to see the picture druged up again.
by JohnCK on May 22, 2007 1:43 PM EDT reply actions
Brick,
If Oden or Durrant end up playing in Memphis, it won’t really matter what the Celtics do because the NBA will become a minor league. People are really fed up with the league. The poor play, the boring games, star players mailing in playoff games, the perception that the league’s only exciting team (the Suns) getting completely jobbed by the league with the Diaw Staudamire suspensions, the prospect of another Pistons Spurs wrestling match finals, the horrible image most NBA players project have turned off huge numbers of fans. If either Oden or Durrant, two guys that caused a national sensation in college this year and got a lot of people watching basketball again who had stopped in the last 10 years, end up in Memphis, playing in a terrible market replaying KG’s career of going one and done in the playoffs on a team no one cares about, I really fear for the future of the league.
by JohnCK on May 22, 2007 1:48 PM EDT reply actions
I think the problem with calculating the Wyc/Danny/Doc approval rating is that it is an imaginary number. Mathematically it would be represented as .38i
by ReggieR on May 22, 2007 2:12 PM EDT reply actions
These are great odds in a deep draft – positive thoughts for a return to greatness.
by desertgreen on May 22, 2007 2:23 PM EDT reply actions
Here’s an almost exactly analagous situation from poker: JT vs. AK
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=js ts
ac kc
I’m sure all the poker players know that being a 38.5% is not bad at all. It’s less than 2-1 odds against you. More than enough to get all your chips in with. :-)
by DavidK on May 22, 2007 2:27 PM EDT reply actions
Ugh, the URL got messed up:
“>”http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=js" target="_blank">http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=js ts
ac kc
by DavidK on May 22, 2007 2:28 PM EDT reply actions
Well, I could name the Russian president before I tuned in to this thread, so if the Celts don’t come away with a top-2 pick, at least I’ve got that going for me…right?
Wow do we ever need a top-2 pick!
by Fezyk on May 22, 2007 2:33 PM EDT reply actions
Marc,
As with Bush’s rating, it depends who you ask:
http://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htm
Pick one.
A sarcastic buddy of mine (a Bullets fan who refuses to recognize the franchise’s name change) thinks the Cs should complete their roster by getting an unheralded, slow-footed, poor-shooting Eastern European, either through the draft or a trade. He apparently does not remember the Vitaly Potapenko/Zan Tabak era.
by CitizenWakefield on May 22, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions
“A sarcastic buddy of mine (a Bullets fan who refuses to recognize the franchise’s name change) thinks the Cs should complete their roster by getting an unheralded, slow-footed, poor-shooting Eastern European, either through the draft or a trade. He apparently does not remember the Vitaly Potapenko/Zan Tabak era.”
Insert “Chinese” in place of “Eastern European” and you friend might get his wish in this draft.
by JohnCK on May 22, 2007 2:48 PM EDT reply actions
A few weeks ago in the wake of the Telfair gun charge, this site turned into a boring-as-hell episode of Law & Order. Now it’s turned into an edition of Lou Dobbs that’s experiencing technical difficulties. :)
by CitizenWakefield on May 22, 2007 2:50 PM EDT reply actions
Didn’t know the breadth of this site, did you Jeff?
by CitizenWakefield on May 22, 2007 2:51 PM EDT reply actions
Doc’s approval rating is lower than Antoine’s shooting percentage.
by The Real Large James on May 22, 2007 4:27 PM EDT reply actions
JohnCK said:
Brick,
“…If either Oden or Durrant, two guys that caused a national sensation in college this year and got a lot of people watching basketball again who had stopped in the last 10 years, end up in Memphis, playing in a terrible market replaying KG’s career of going one and done in the playoffs on a team no one cares about, I really fear for the future of the league.”
I agree with the gist of your post, although I thoroughly enjoy watching the Spurs and Jazz play. It’s like watching the Patriots play the Broncos: two well-coached teams that know what they are doing.
I don’t expect the Memphis franchise to stay in Memphis. I expect the new owners to move it to Vegas as soon as Michael Heisley sells the team.
Well, as one of the few who believes that Stern manipulates the lottery, I see Oden going to the hometown Pacers, the Bulls or the Sixers. Of course if the Bulls get him (with the Knicks pick) there will be pandemonium in Secaucus.
It’s pure bunk to believe that Syern manipulates the lottery. What he does do, however, is maintain a lottery that fails to deliver the end result for which it was created. It fails to help the worst teams and instead rewards “lady luck”. With so much at stake it’s hard to justify maintaining this broken system.
by moskqq on May 22, 2007 5:24 PM EDT reply actions

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