Hold Up in the NBA
With the first pick in the NBA draft, the Portland TrailBlazers earn the right to negotiate with Greg Oden. However, as we've learned in the last few days, there is some pressure for the Blazers to also draft Mike Conley, Jr. The problem is that Conley is top ten talent, meaning Portland will need to trade some real value to get a top ten pick. But top ten might not be enough; Milwaukee selects at number six and is in need of a point guard, so maybe Portland needs to trade into the top five. In fact, recent rumors (see link above) have Atlanta asking for Roy or Aldridge from Portland in exchange for the number three pick. This situation points out the power that star athletes have over the teams that own their rights.
This concept is not new to professional sports. Every summer in the NFL top players hold out for better contracts, and sometimes even refuse to play for the team that holds their rights. Of course, similar examples exist in the NBA: Jon Barry refused to play for the Boston Celtics who selected him with the 21st draft pick in 1992. Economists appropriately name these types of situations as "hold ups". The idea is that one party has a specific asset that another party needs to use. The owner of the specific asset is able to "hold up" and extract more economic rent from the user of the asset.
Solutions to the hold up problem include merger or long term contracts. Paul Joskow, an economist at MIT, has studied power plants that are located adjacent to coal mines. The coal mine has an asset (coal) that the power plant needs, and so is able to hold up the power plant. Of course, there are limits to what types of economic rents the coal mine can extract: if it demands too high a price for coal, the power plant could ship in coal from another location or switch over to a different type of combustion (e.g.: it could become a nuclear plant instead of a coal-fired plant). Joskow finds that often coal mines and power plants enter into long term contracts to solve the hold up problem.
Coming back to the Blazers, Oden has a specific asset the Blazers need (his skills as a center). Oden and his agent (Conley Sr.) know this and so are trying to hold up the Blazers to get Conley Jr. to Portland. Now, at some point, Portland will say enough is enough -- they won't pay any price in order to select Conley. Like the power plant in the example above, if Oden and Conley's demands are too high Portland will go with an alternative (e.g.: pick Durant instead or pick Oden and tell him to deal with it). How does this relate to the Celtics? Some fans are hoping that the Celtics, knowing of Oden's desire to be reunited with Conley in Portland, will select Conley at pick number five (if he is still available) and then try to "sell" the rights to Portland for a high price. But it would be naive to think that Portland will "do anything" to get Conley. They may overpay for him a bit, but not by much because there are alternatives. The Celtics would be better served by focusing energy elsewhere, such as deciding which of the remaining players after Oden and Durant would be the best fit for the Celtics in the short and long term.
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37 comments
Comments
If Atlanta want Aldridge they should do that imo
by coonnoo on May 28, 2007 8:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Getting Aldrige would be great, but otherwise I would suggest the C’s stay out of that.
Generally, however, I doubt there is much truth in the article quoted and that it’s mostly speculation. Of course Oden wants to play with Conely, they’ve been playing together forever. That doesn’t mean he’s going to pull a Manning and try to hold Portland hostage. Believe 10% of what you see written in the press.
by tmcdon on May 28, 2007 8:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m sure if the C’s take Conley, there won’t be a lack of trading partners. They could see what Portland has to offer or even see if Milwaukee will give up Villaneuva and a first rounder to reverse their previous trade, shipping Ford out.
by md300m on May 28, 2007 8:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If the Celtics got Conley, I hope they KEEP him. I don’t trust DA to get equal value in a trade. And how pitiful would it be if DA traded the rights to Conley to Portland for…. Brandon Roy!
by SoCalCeltic on May 28, 2007 8:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pick Conley @ 5, then trade to Portland for Roy -
After that, trade Rondo in package to whoever Brick suggests:
ROY:
57 games, 16.8 ppg,
4 assists, 35.4 minutes per game,
202 for 241 @ the line
RONDO: 78 games, 6.4 ppg,
3.8 assists, 23.5 minutes per game,
119 for 184 @ the line
Look @ how much more ROY got to the line in 57 games than Rondo did in 78
(even with the drop off in minutes).
by mcpu40 on May 28, 2007 8:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mcpu, Look at the playing time disparity first. If you do the math and make their minutes equal to each other (35.4) then Rondo would actually get to the line 277.17 times. Rondo just was not playing at the beginning of the year.
This is an awesome development, though. I think that the C’s could get some legit proven talent by trading Conley.
by telfairERA#30 on May 28, 2007 8:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree with SoCalCeltic 100%. Keep Conley if you can get him, because he’s a star NBA pg for the next 10-12 years. If Oden wants to play with Conley, he can demand to be traded to the Celtics.
It’s no secret that Portland will try to turn Zach Randolph into a pick high enough to take Conley. It probably won’t work.
by Brickowski on May 28, 2007 9:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is the exact trade senario I saw for the C’s, was trading 5 to Portland for Aldridge. I didn’t think Alanta would offer it.
The other trade scenario would be with Memphis, they have to now move Gasol. Without the 1 0r 2 pick the Grizz are in trouble. Gasol won’t want to stay, and the fans won’t turn out now without Oden/Durant. Along with Gasol burning his bridge there.
Business sense say’s they need to reduce payroll, to get back in the black, and establish a up and coming team with “great upside” to market for sale.
These are the highest options for trades, me I like the Gasol move but would take the other also. If not we draft.
by The Real Alaska on May 28, 2007 9:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t trade Conley for LaMarcus Aldridge. What Atlanta should do is to demand both Aldridge and Sergio Rodriguez for pick #5 and Speedy Claxton. Then it might be worth it for the Hawks.
by Brickowski on May 28, 2007 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Atlanta is in an enviable position as it drafts the next best player outside Oden and Durant.They can deal with a lot of teams who need help at certain positions and get tons of assetes in return. or they can Draft Conley themselves and help the position they most likely have a need for.
Boston should just stay the course and draft whoever is available from Yi/Wright and Brewer.
by bopna on May 28, 2007 9:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
By all accounts Aldridge will be fine but I am still concerned with how his season ended: http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=117641447769612000
by CelticsBandwagon on May 28, 2007 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think everyone is making WAY TOO MUCH of this. If Portland doesn’t deal for Conley, Oden isn’t going to all of the sudden develop a bad attitude and “hold up.” Give me a break. Sure, he’d like to play with his long-time friend, but he sure as hell didn’t demand “Conley, or else!!!” like everyone is trying to make it sound like.
If I were Portland, I would not trade Aldridge for the rights to Conley.
by CelticBalla32 on May 28, 2007 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fVJpeo7PvE&mode=related&search=
file under reasons not to draft yi jianlian
by trustedwithangels on May 28, 2007 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry to burst your bubble, but unless Yi changed jerseys in the middle of the game, Pau didn’t dunk on him. He dunked on #12…. Yi was wearing #11.
by SoCalCeltic on May 28, 2007 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Trade #5 pick for LaMarcus Aldridge & Sergio Rodriguez. Inner presence and a good PG.
by Fleetwood on May 28, 2007 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t want any trades with Portland. First I don’t want to help them as they stole Oden from us. Second Danny will likely get fleeced just like last year. Aldridge has a heart condition, Randolph is a nut case, Roy is redundant, and Sergio is owned by Rondo. The only trade we should make with our pick is either packaging it for a veteran or moving up in the draft to get the player we want.
by orrzor on May 28, 2007 11:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ve completely lost confidence in Celtics’ management. The extension for Rivers was the last straw.
They are acting out of desperation and it will not turn out well. My guess is that they are looking to give a huge chunk of their young talent for a one-year rental of KG, who will play a year for the Celtics and then opt out.
by Brickowski on May 28, 2007 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Portland is so desperate to unload Randloph’s contract/baggage that it’s highly unlikely Atlanta bites at a #3 and filler for him. After all, they could simply draft Horford and get a younger/nicer version. More likely, IMO, is that Atlanta picks Law at #11, and shops #3 for a “veteran all-star” (sound familiar) to couple with Joe Johnson.
As for Conley Jr ending up in Portland, it will land on the Celtics to be Portland’s conduit. Which, given Ainge’s history at putting together championship teams for franchises he does not work for (Detroit, Miami), means it will probably happen. Look for the C’s to get fleeced yet again. My guess is the #5 and Wally for Darius Miles, Dan Dickau’s expiring deal and Portland’s 2nd round pick, which, Ainge will point out, is just like getting another 1st rounder in a very deep draft.
Meanwhile Conley, Brewer and Horford will all become stars, and the only thing we’ll be able to say looking back at yet another draft-day disaster is “at least we didn’t get the Chinese guy.” Even thinking about what Ainge will do makes me feel physically ill.
by George Meyer on May 28, 2007 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
celticballa is right – most of you guys are overestimating portland’s desire for conley. he’s a nice player, but they’re not going to sell the farm (aka roy or aldridge, both of whom they’re higher on than anyone in this draft besides oden & durant) for him when they’ve still got two perfectly serviceable point guards (jack and rodriguez) and a reigning rookie of the year who can fill in when needed.
by game sink on May 28, 2007 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nothing wrong with getting KG to go with Al and Paul. Who knows if he will opt out. He’d be leaving a ton of money on the table. If the C’s win and compete with that threesome as the core, I doubt he leaves. I thought the idea was to win not continually be in a building stage.
by celty86 on May 28, 2007 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There isn’t any package of players that Porland can offer that would be better than what a lot of other teams currently have on the block.
I would much rather have any of the prospects available at 5 than Aldridge, and this coming from someone who wants nothing to do picking at five.
We have already have 3 great prospects from this class of players (AJ, GG, RR) and 5 years of re-building is long enough.
Trade for vets and compete RIGHT NOW while Pierce is still capable of carrying a championship team.
by D Dub on May 28, 2007 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s all speculation, none of know for sure wether Portland will or won’t but the logic supporting each opinion is very appealing. To bring Oden in with the pt. guard he has played with his whole life has to offer appeal. You have instant chemistry with the 2 most important positions on the court. How could one not look at it. The question here is who would be for and who against such a move. I would have to research Aldridge more but on the surface I like it.
I still think Gasol though could be had, and had with the pick and Theo’s contract, and through in Telfair. Memphis will feel more preasure in making a move, Gasol has turned the fan base against him enough that he’s not going to pack them in with a 4th pick to help him. With a 4 and a 5 they can start a true rebuilding, and put the team back in the black. Making the sale of the team more marketable.
Question is not wether Memphis will unload Gasol at this price. But how would fans here feel if it was offered, and what would you give to make it work. I do feel for the reasons stated above thier will be a offer on the table for Gasol, and I like the idea.
by The Real Alaska on May 28, 2007 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like the idea too. If we can go into next season with a trio of Al, Paul and fill in the blank _______ (Gasol, O’Neil, KG, etc.), I would be happy. Too many times I hear “oh, but it will only get us one playoff round only”. Geesh! I’d like to get to the playoffs first before I’m worrying about whether we can win the conference championship. Danny can do one of three things. He can maintain course and add a pick irregardless of Pierce’s feelings and advancing age. He can trade the pick to try and get an established player back to team with Pierce and Jefferson. Or he can blow it up and trade Pierce to start over while selecting the best long term prospect at #5. I see him going either of the first two ways, not the third. Time will tell soon what we are adding to the roster.
by celty86 on May 28, 2007 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
happy memorial day to all vets and to all wounded fans watching last year’s team malperform. keep the pick- get someone good. #5 is quality.
by nazzbo on May 28, 2007 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gasol will not be traded for the 5 pick and an expiring contract. When was the last time and expiring deal played a major role in an NBA trade? Celtics fans need to aquaint themselves with the reality that any trade for a proven big man vet (ie: O’Neal, Garnett, Gasol) is going to cost Big Al and the pick. These guys are not going to get moved unless NBA ready talent comes back in return. How many of you would trade Paul Pierce for an expiring deal and the 5th pick in this draft? And Pierce’s value is signficantly lower than any of these guys, if only because there are so many capable swingmen in the league and so few viable big men. With the Bulls and the Lakers also in the hunt, any deal would cost us both of our top “assets” in Jefferson and the #5 pick.
Knowing Ainge, more likely is the C’s moving the 5th pick and Wally to Portland for Raef’s slightly cheaper contract and Martell Webster (who Ainge will claim would have gone #3 in this draft). Maybe we can include Telfair to sweeten the deal.
by George Meyer on May 28, 2007 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think there are only three players worth really talking about in the draft at No. 5: Conley, Noah, Brewer. We need to draft for point guard and defense, because all our 3’s play sucky defense and Gomes is a rotation guy and nothing more. Draft/trade Conley? KEEP Conley! Better than Rondo. Period.
And Noah and Brewer gives us defense sorely lacking in the frontcourt. We desperate need a lockdown defender, so I’d MAYBE even entertain Green/J. Wright. But whatever we do, ignore B. Wright and Horford. 12/8 guys at best.
by Big_Easy on May 28, 2007 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lot’s of experts ……and none of these players (Noah, B. Wright, Horford Brewer, etc., etc.,) you guys mention have played 30 flippin seconds in the NBA !!!
PP was a #10 draft, Ralph Sampson and Kandi man were # 1 picks. There are diamonds,and then there are diamonds in the rough. It’s really “a mining game”. Until you find the diamond, polish it a bit, and hold it under an “NBA Experience” microscope you don’t know what you have. That’s when you see the flaws each player has at this level.
And just remember……… a beautiful diamond all polished and ready to shine/play can’t shine as bright with a bad coach casting a dark shadow.
Set back, take a deep summer breath, and hope whomever we get @ #5 spot is drafted on suspected talent, and not drat on possible trades or position.
Al jefferson said something like “I am glad I don’t have Danny’s job”. I say I wish someone else had Doc’s job. But I ain’t on that committee so…..
Peace and Happy Memorial Day
Thanks to all who fought for this country so I can be free today.
by Master Po on May 28, 2007 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
George Meyer, first off as I tried to say is any of these things are speculation. Fine you don’t think it will happen but to try and use the analogy of past trades or other teams behavior for reasoning is suspect. To understand ones thinking one must understand ones motives.
The Grizzley have be bleeding red for awhile now. With no real good market to count on, what are thier options to stop the bleeding and in turn make the team sellable? If you don’t use an expiring contract, (that in the C’s case is covered mostly by insurance $) how do you get that team in the back in the black. If they had gotten the 1 or 2 pick they may of generated enough interest to increase attendance and TV exposure to be viable with Gasol on board. But now? I don’t see it. You mention Chicago, I don’t think so, if they were ready to make that deal they would of earlier. Plus they need a low post scorer, Zack Randolph would be a better fit. The Lakers? What kind of package that they could offer would fit the needs of the Grizz. I don’t see it.
Now may we have to include more that a 5 and Theo, maybe so. But that was the question, what would you add? Green/West/Gnomes. If Al is in the mix there’s no way, on our end and I don’t think it’d fill Grizz needs as Al is going to demand $$$ in another year.
by The Real Alaska on May 28, 2007 5:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
George, I think Brick is the only one who would trade Pierce for that deal you mentioned! I’m thinking Gasol only because Memphis supposedly needs to cut salary. If that is not the case, I don’t see them trading him to us. Al will cost them soon contractually as Alaska said so I think if we could get Gasol we may not have to lose Al. I would think Bird would want to start rebuilding the Pacers soon and you may be correct that he would want Jefferson back for O’Neil. If that’s the case I wouldn’t think Danny would go for it. Bottom line is we may have to just add through the draft and I’d want to see our defense improved. We are only going to get better if we can stop people period. That’s why I like Noah. He’s big, he’s mobile and he will give you his all. A bigger, stronger AK47 with a smaller contract. I’m not hung up on upside and ceilings, more on wins and losses. Conley is good but it sure seems he has risen up the draft board really fast. He seemed to go from a 10-12 pick to now #3 in the last two weeks. He’s either great or really overrated. If he’s that great I could live with us having two excellent young point guards at least for awhile. It’s a super important position that is for sure.
by celty86 on May 28, 2007 5:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alaska and Celty86, great great point about the Grizz not being a position to re-sign Big Al. But on the other hand, they supposedly were demanding Loul Deng from the Bulls, and that’s another max type guy, so who knows?
I just wanted to stress that understanding our own ambivalence towards the 5th pick, it is unlikely that other teams are jumping out of their seats for it either. Thus, it is unlikely to net us an all-star caliber big man. But hopefully I’ll be proven wrong.
That said, yes, like Brick, at this point I would trade Pierce for a pick. In that case I’d like to see us take Brewer and start over as a young, scrappy, defensive minded unit. Or get Conley Jr. and establish him and Big Al as our core to build around. Sort of in the way Orlando has Howard and Nelson.
by George Meyer on May 28, 2007 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would certainly get Conley if i could. As for Pierce, I’d try to move him in a package for a younger player, preferably a better defender, e.g. Kirilenko or Tayshaun Prince, plus a mid to late first round pick.
The difference betwen the player you get with pick #10 vs pick #25 in this draft is minimal. I believe that players like Fernandez, Belinelli and Byars will be better than some of the lottery picks, and I’m on record as stating that after Oden and Durant, Tiago Splitter is the best big man in this draft.
But the Celtics won’t do what is sensible and right. They will keep Pierce and try to add big name veteran (e.g. JO or Gasol), give up far too much in the process, and then lie to the fans about how good the team is going to be in order to sell a few tickets.
It’s exactly the same failed strategy that the Sixers tried when Billy King traded for Chris Webber. What they should have done, of course, was trade Iverson 2 years sooner. They would have gotten much more for him and would be in a much better position today.
by Brickowski on May 28, 2007 5:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
IMO, Portland will not trade Aldridge for Conley (trade package). They will do Randolph and about anything else in the lineup/future draft, etc, except for Roy or Oden, but they aren’t going to mess with Oden/Aldridge/Roy.
I think Oden will be fine without Conley. Sure, he’d like to have him, but life goes on.
by bceltfan on May 28, 2007 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Danny needs to give a detailed press Q & A on how he thinks we are going to be championship contenders with Pierce. This keeping Pierce while the youngsters develop hasn’t been working out. I guess we’ll wait and see what happens to the #5.
by bceltfan on May 28, 2007 6:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I just find it funny they want to trade a PG ( a position they need) for another SG/SF (Roy).
I guess the will throw out a lineup of Johnson, Roy, Childress, Smith and Williams.
by Wide Load on May 28, 2007 8:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Brick, I think even if Danny wanted to move Pierce, ownership won’t let him. But hey, the draft is still a month away, maybe we’ll be surprised.
by celty86 on May 28, 2007 11:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
celty86 said:
“Brick, I think even if Danny wanted to move Pierce, ownership won’t let him.”
Ownership will certainly share blame for the upcoming fiasco.
by Brickowski on May 29, 2007 7:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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