The Time To Hesitate Is Through

Time to trade Pierce. Otherwise, we’re doomed to the Reggie Miller experience- he gets old, retires and leaves you with nothing.

Very good piece. Although i agree mostly with what you are saying, i disagree with this part

“Paul Pierce is by no means an aging player.”

I think he is aging and maybe quicker than we want to admit. He has had health issues now for 2 seasons (Played through them in 05/06) including surgery. That adds to the aging process. I am not saying he is washed up but I think it may be fair to say that his best years may have passed or are very, very close to passing.

Thought this was a very good article. Under the “So, Now What?” concept…. I agree we are left putting our hope in players that are being given up on by their current teams. I wanted to get people’s thoughts on Andrei Kirilenko. I feel he is the type of player to team up with Al Jefferson down low that will really benefit Al’s game. I think Al needs the big man he teams up with to be a player that on offense can stretch the defense and hit the mid range jumpers to pull one of the other team’s big men out of the paint and give Al the room to post up without the help side big man. Then on defense give that strong shot blocking and rebounding force down low that Jefferson is still working on. I think Kirilenko fits this type of player very well and I believe he could be obtained without giving up any real valuable pieces.

Why can he be obtained so cheaply? Because of his contract. I admit his contract is much much larger than his production but with the C’s we are left with option of taking a few chances. I believe he is due to make 12 mil thru the 2010/11 season. We would have to give up Theo’s contract to make the trade work but besides that I dont think it would take that much more to get him. That would leave us with our valuable pieces, Gerald Green and the number 5 pick, to either keep and hope to work into our team or use in another deal.

In an ideal world I would not like to take in a contract like this, but I think we are left looking for opportunities like this one. Any opinions on Kirilenko or other players that we can take a chance on to improve this team? Also, what do you guys think about the idea of finding a player like Kirilenko to team up with Al to bring out the best in Al’s low post game?

A truly EXCELLENT piece of journalism lacking only the prophetic answer to Ainge’s dilemma, what’s next?

We’ve heard that with the league-wide changes in coaches and front office personnel that many clubs will be looking to change the face of their organization. It’s been rumored that such an event may lead others to desperate measures and pave the way for the Celtics to acquire good veteran help. We’ve had the opportunity to determine who our core players should be and have trading pieces to barter with.

We also have the opportunity to finally draft a top-tier talent with loads of upside. The throng of faithful followers, eager and impatient for a return to respectability, refuse the slow approach to rebuilding a dynasty and instead demand INSTANT results. How high should Ainge jump to satisfy this thirsty mob? Will impatience derail the master plan and leave us once again just short of our goal?

Will any result short of #17 satisfy the hunger? Are Danny and Doc facing a “no win” situation? Too many bloggers want to live in the mistakes of the past and fashion solutions that are unrealistic. Too many don’t understand that desireable talent rarely comes at a reasonable cost. The grass ALWAYS looks greener somewhere else…..

Jeff, finish this inspired piece by forecasting our future…..Do it NOW, please!!!! I just can’t stand the suspense!!!!!!

It’s not Danny turn to step up… and it’s not Doc’s turn either

It’s time for Paul to grow up!!!!!!! Time for him to take charge of this team and lead!!!!

Jeff for all your talk about what Danny and Doc have to do, Paul has to step up to the plate and realize who he is as a player and what he needs to do to lead this team.

Enough talk about adding Veteran players, why can’t Paul step up to the plate and take a swing. Why are we codling this player and not on him enough to just simply grow up and become a force himself and lead.

How old was Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge when they came into the league and how did they handle the everyday stress of the NBA.

Paul Pierce is waiting for others to carry him to the promise land…..well maybe it’s time to take the binky away from Paul and tell him that he needs to start playing.

Is Cleveland that much better than Boston’s roster??? Look at how Lebron is handling himself so far with a cast of nomad’s. Paul needs to do the same thing.

What Paul has going for him no is Al Jefferson. Put big Al with Cleveland and Lebron and what do you have?

Enough talk about bringing someone in, it starts with our own roster and our team. We have some fine players and we need to stay healthy. But this team needs to grow up and start playing like a team of need!

I agree that Kirilenko would improve the team. I also feel that we can pickup someone other than a current or past all-star to improve the team. Since we are a young team, I think that we should pickup someone who is 25 or younger. I like Robert Swift. I posted earlier suggesting our # 5 for Swift and later thought we should add telfair to the deal.

The right deal may be to keep the fifth pick.

The time to act is now. He needs to put the pieces on the court to make the playoffs and compete with the best in the East this year. There will be no more tanking, no more weighing of the lottery odds, no more excuses. Just win. Now.

I know everyone wants this, but evangelizing this position is a little reckless.

If Danny and Wyc are determined to build this team around Pierce, we’re doomed. Three years ago, that was a good idea. Now we’re faced with mortgaging our future to obtain a poor chance at a title, during a short window of time.

It’s likely best for our future to move Paul. His contract puts some handcuffs on us, he’ll soon be on the wrong side of 30 and I suspect his best years are behind him. Indy held onto Reggie Miller, let him fade into the sunset, and has nothing to show for it but mediocrity and Reggie’s legacy.

Our best bet is dealing Pierce for future picks and prospects and building around Jefferson. Pierce has perhaps a three or four year window as an elite player, Jefferson has perhaps an eight year window.

It simply makes sense to build around Jefferson, and that means adding young talent to him… not adding old talent to Pierce. If Paul had a reasonable contract, I might be singing a different tune, but he’s incredibly overpaid now.

If Danny finds a great trade… well, great… but if that comes up empty (again), it’s time to move on.

Paul Pierce has always been a top notch player, never a leader.

We don’t need veterans, we need talent.

Ancient Red, I think you and I are usually close to being on the same page. I disagree with your thoughts on PP. I think he’s been doing for years what you say he should be doing. PP isn’t asking for veteran help for himself, but for the team. For his efforts PP is criticized for being selfish, Doc is criticized for calling iso’s for him, etc. and PP has been beaten to a pulp. Yet he keeps working all summer to improve his game and be ready for the next season. He has encouraged the younger players. He sets an example with his work ethic. He’s become a more vocal leader. He gives Al Jeff the dickens for passing the ball back to him as opposed to Al taking the shot. You look at players like McGrady and Carter who dogged it because they wanted to be traded and you look at Pierce’s behavior over the years; we really need to recognize that PP has sacrificed his body for the team and fans. He has played as hard as he can, he dives on the floor for loose balls, he takes the big shots and criticism if he misses, he plays hurt, etc. In addition, Pierce’s saying that the team needs veteran help is an objective evaluation similar to many others.

Lebron is a leader. A quote by him after beating the C’s in his rookie year

 " I don’t have to score to win the game, I need to make a play".

That’s from an 18 year old kid.

Little D said:
  
We don’t need veterans, we need talent.

I think Danny has said the same. He’s not just after a veteran player, he’s after a quality player as you suggest.

Just get Gasol.

It’s a nice piece of writing, Jeff, but I can’t agree with you. The Celtics should move in the other direction: keep the 5th pick and trade Pierce. We now have the talent to begin putting things together; but Pierce’s not going to be there for the end of the ride.

TrueGreen,
Concur.

Jeff, forgot to say nice article and good summary. I don’t think you’re saying this, but I hope, you’re not saying, we should make a deal just to make a deal. The old cliche— “sometimes the best deal is the one not made”. My gut tells me to take the #5 pick unless the right deal really is there.

i agree with clicious about ak47, a shot blocker and a mobile player who is all over the court on both ends. pp can play and be productive a long time if he doesn’t have to get to the whole so often. he needs inside help and someone to take off the double teams. i really like brewer for his all around game. we would have to make room for him by trading at least 2 of our 2-3 players. we also need a fixed rotation with complimentary players.

If we don’t have PP, we don’t win 30 games.

no kidding, If we trade Pierce we’re going backwards 2 or 3 years. Keep Pierce, try to get him help (if it doesn’t come from the current roster, which it may) and let a quality player evolve into Pierce’s roll while he’s here.

Trade PP only if you can get the likes of Deng or other young studs of that caliber. Yes, I’m aware Chicago would never do that, but the point is two years ago they would have and I believe that’s what everyone on this blog would like to see, if Danny were to trade PP.

The draft is a crap shoot….projecting upside is fraught with risk. Identifying “intangibles” is as much an art as it is a science. The pitfalls outnumber the success stories because the “experts” often see the flair and not the warts.

Yet the draft remains an important avenue for obtaining star talent at a reasonable cost. The price is usually time and patience but this fan base is more inclined to spend recklessly rather than preserve sound monetary policy. It’s that same impatience that has made us financially strapped during the Danny Ainge era. History has a way of repeating itself.

My plea is not for us to panic but to step away from emotionalizing our future, avoiding the expedient path and instead doing what’s best for the long haul without rationalizing a mandated “window of opportunity”.

Jeff, a very excellent assessment of how we got to where we are. Accurate and succinct. Like a few others, I disagree with the assessment that we must “Just win. Now.”.

I share Moskqq’s concern about overreacting to not getting Oden and Durant.

We also have the opportunity to finally draft a top-tier talent with loads of upside. The throng of faithful followers, eager and impatient for a return to respectability, refuse the slow approach to rebuilding a dynasty and instead demand INSTANT results. How high should Ainge jump to satisfy this thirsty mob? Will impatience derail the master plan and leave us once again just short of our goal?

I hope that we are not doomed to repeat the past in a hurried approach to mollify impatient fans. If a deal can be made that is favorable to us, make it; but thinking that we absolutely MUST TRADE NOW is a recipe for Pitinoesque disaster.

If we find a trade favorable to us, okay, otherwise, we’re going to get a very fine player in the draft. It may be turn out, as Albin suggests, that trading Pierce will end up being the right choice. Really all depends on the deals available to us. Ainge should not feel desperate. Our shelves are by no means empty, and we can go any of a number of ways.

Jeff, Your description of how we got here is very good, but I disagree with your conclusion that we must make a trade now. We have the veterans we need. They are Wally, Theo, and the young guys like Perk, Al, Tony and Delonte. Perk has been in the league 4 years now, Tony, Al and Delonte 3. They are young veterans, but veterans nonetheless. Their entire careers have been under Doc’s tutelage. If Wally and Tony are both healthy, then I see Wally coming off the bench, and Tony starting. The reality is likely that Tony won’t be able to contribute starter minutes for a while, his rehab will take a full year plus to get him anywhere near where he was when he got injured. So count on Wally starting, and Tony off the bench. Gerald will not start unless Pierce is traded. He auditioned much of last season for the job, and frankly, failed to inspire confidence. There is hope for him yet that he will emerge as a good player, but surely the fantasy of him becoming the next Tracey McGrady has been put to rest forever.

  Geez Guys, it takes two to tango! Don’t pick on Danny if he cannot make a trade that you would approve of. The peeps on the other end of any projected trade have their own agenda and their own opinions of player values. BOTH ends of the trade have to think they got the better of the deal (which could be ‘addition by subtraction’ as Indiana was forced to do with Artest and Jackson).

I said my piece in the other thread. The odds that they will screw it up approach 99.9%. I’ve lost confidence completely in Grousbeck and Ainge.

The right thing to do is trade Pierce for a younger player and use #5 on the best available player. If I could move up to get Mike Conley, I would.

That’s not what the Celtics are going to do. They will keep Pierce and trade away their lotto pick for the second straight year for some “name” veteran as a quick fix.

At least the team’s plans expose Grousbeck’s blatant lie that this is a “playoff team in disguise.” If it were, they wouldn’t be so desperate to make a move.

Hope, that’s what everyone is counting on.
Hope that some team values Theos contract.
Hope, that they value it this summer.
Hope that Danny is not trying to trade it come Feb.
Hope that we can keep PP,Al and RR.
Hope that some combination of Theo’s contract, Delonte ,Wally, GG, Perk,TA, Gomes and the 5th pick will bring Gasol or Oneil type talent.

Brickowski said:

That’s not what the Celtics are going to do. They will keep Pierce and trade away their lotto pick for the second straight year for some “name” veteran as a quick fix.

Good god man, I hope your wrong. That gave me a sick feeling.

Wilt said:
   BOTH ends of the trade have to think they got the better of the deal

I may be nitpicking here, but I think that in a good trade both parties come out winners. They both fulfill their needs.

The Celtics are not going to give away the number 5 pick. I am sure they would love to trade it but I don’t know that they will get a good offer. I think at best they might trade down a couple of slots. I bet Danny likes someone like Thornton as the number three player. Someone people are projecting in the 6 to 11 range. My guess is Danny trades down and then ala Rondo claims he got his guy anyway.

Brickowski said:

They will keep Pierce and trade away their lotto pick for the second straight year for some “name” veteran as a quick fix.

I don’t think they’ll do this. If they do something as a “quick fix” it would be to take on a free agent if there’s one that could help as a temporary fix. It would be low cost and short contract. It’s the media and bloggers who want the quick fix. I think DA is more realistic and won’t fall into the Vin Baker trap. I also don’t think their interest is in a “name veteran” if they make a move, but one of quality, who will be here long-term if such a player is available. No one like Vince Carter, but maybe someone like Tayshaun Prince or Richard Jefferson (not specifically these guys).

While I thought this piece was very well-written from the perspective of analyzing the past, it seems a bit like a puff piece when it comes to analyzing the current situation.

Ainge has been building to this point, etc., etc.

The real question is: Based on all that has happened since he took over the franchise, do you trust him to make the right moves now? What has he done, besides the draft, either in trades or free agency, where a big move would have to come from, that makes you think a “big move” will be successful?

Don’t get me wrong — I sure hope this has all been part of the master plan and Ainge is about to wow us all.

But the empirical evidence from Danny’s reign seems to suggest success is not all that likely.

Solution 1: Fire Ainge, fire Doc, trade Pierce, announce that the last plan to rebuild the team did not work, and that it is going to be a few years but responsible and experienced guys are taking over and are going to fix the Celtics (and find some guys with NBA success in management positions to do so). . .

Solution 2: Try to trade the #5 pick, next years top pick, gerald green, theo ratliff, and anyone not named Pierce or Jefferson for KG.

I have been saying for a long time that Pierce is the problem with the C’s- he is not a leader and he is not at all committed to fast break basketball. The sooner fans realize that the only way to truly be a championship team again is to trade away Pierce who to me has always been about himself first. I only wish DA had not extended him last year because I am concerned other teams will not be in any hurry to absorb not only his hefty contact but a player who really is a selfish ball player.

Solution #2 is a pipe dream unless McHale has lost his mind. And even if they pull it off, they need to resign KG before he opts out. That means a huge luxury tax bill. Celtics management will float rumor after rumor that such a deal is in the works, but it will be a cheap ploy to sell tickets.

If KG becomes a Celtic, Al Jefferson will be a Timberwolf.

“Just win. Now.” is a self-defeating act of desperate immediate gratification. We have a 25 win-per-year hill to climb from 24 to 49 wins. Here’s my 3 step plan:

Take Noah with the 5. Trade Pierce for a young stud like Deng. Add Baron Davis or Gilbert Arenas as a free agent next off-season.

You will never get Deng for Pierce. And Noah is the worst possible choice with #5.

Kirilenko would be great, but I’m not sure Utah wants to sell him. He didnt play well this season, but he was their francise player for a while. I think getting Channing Frye from the Knicks would be easier (Thomas is a jerk), and I’m convinced that guy can play.
I am not sure about Noah’s basketball skills, but for some reason I love that guy.

 " You will never get Deng for Pierce. And Noah is the worst possible choice with #5. "

Ainge would be a moron to give up Pierce for Deng. Did you bother to watch the playoffs this year? Deng got killed in the Pistons series. He is not an elite player. Not half the playe Pierce is. The bulls should have traded him this winter before everyone realized that he has about hit his ceiling.

How do you know Noah is so bad? The guy plays defense, is a proven winner and plays hard. Everything the Celtics are not right now. The worst choice? I dont’ think so.

WedmanIsMyHero said:

Solution 1: Fire Ainge, fire Doc, trade Pierce, announce that the last plan to rebuild the team did not work, and that it is going to be a few years but responsible and experienced guys are taking over and are going to fix the Celtics (and find some guys with NBA success in management positions to do so). . .

I totally disagree with you, but who would you name to replace Danny and Doc and who would you trade Pierce for?

It seems that the big decision is whether we trade Paul and really[/i] try and rebuild or we try and obtian a few players to make a run at the playoffs and see what happens. I understand both arguements, but I will say that Paul is a special player. One that is a top player in the East and is difficult to come by. He isnt the [i]leader perhaps, but definately a player that is clutch and can help a team win a lot of games, he just needs help.

I think we take another shot at it this year and if we dont see good improvement then we could move Paul. I throw out last year’s record because Paul was hurt and to be honest we werent exactly trying to win games. The year before we werent that good and we ended up 33-49. With Jefferson’s improvement I think we add a few wins and can compete for an 8th spot in the playoffs. If we add a few veterans I think we can try and jump up to a 6th or 5th spot and try and do some damage.

I would roll the dice on Andrei Kirilenko. As I discussed up top his contract blows but I think he would compliment Jefferson’s game perfectly on offense and deffense. (Please reference what I wrote earlier on Kirilenko in regards to the type of player he is and the small cost of obtaining him) I then think we look to get a veteran PG that Rondo can back up for one more year. Andre Miller from Phili could be obtained, or a cheaper option may be someone like Sam Cassell. We just need a vet who can confidently run the team for a year. You add in another veteran either as a big man or a defensive wingman and this team can shape up nicely.

Kirilenko could be had for Wally and you would still have Theo’s vaulable contract as a trading chip. We can keep the #5 pick to take either a player that could step in and help now (ie. Brewer or Green) or take a player that can sit at the end of the bench for the future. And we would still be holding onto Gerald Green.

I think that gives us a year to really try and improve. If that doesnt work we would have Kirilenko’s contract on our books but at that point I think you could trade Pierce if you so choose and try and really rebuild.

I agree we will never get Deng for Paul Pierce, but I don’t think Noah is the worst choice we could make. If we are going to keep the pick and don’t trade PP, we’ve got to find a defender with length. Noah has terrific energy, and can do everything but score. He’ll still get 12 pts and I could really see him as a Camby type player. I would push hard for a reasonable Pierce trade for young talent/picks, but it ain’t gonna happen.

Brick,

 I respect your opinions so I am hoping you can tell me why you are so down on Noah. I don’t feel like he is top five talent, but I don’t see him as a bust either. Can the kid play NBA level defense (yes), can he be an NBA level rebounder (yes), does he have more O right now then Perk (Yes). Does he like to win (yes). Sounds like a great teamate. I get it that we need a superstar now, but I don’t see it happening. Noah seems like he could contribute now. Tell me your thougts…be nice.

I will say the one thing that worries me about him is that success came easy and the kid is already rich, what does he have to play for. May sem silly or bias, but it is a thought that has gone through my head.

To get Kirilenko, we would need to part with Theo, I dont believe they would accept Wally as the basis of a trade. I wish I’m wrong but…

In response to those who are overly critical of Ainge’s past free agent signings, he made poor choices because he had limited dollars to offer and good talent wouldn’t come cheap. He tried to buy one dimensional players to restock his bench but what worked for Red wouldn’t work for Danny because Red had Bill Russell patroling the paint and offensive players (lacking defensive ability) were shielded from exposure.

When you simply don’t have the money for quality free agents one tries desperate (but risky) moves. At one time we lacked offense to complement Pierce but it soon became obvious that reloading with offensive players wasn’t going to work because we lacked inside defense (ala Bill Russell type).

We tried size inside (Blount/Mihm) but these slow footed 7’ players could neither block shots nor rebound their position…they too were all offense and no defense. The next generation of inside bigs were smaller (Perkins/Jefferson) but lacked defensive skills and neither player showed the necessary high basketball IQ and lateral quickness needed. Oden could have solved our inside problems and a healthy, although aging Ratliff could have helped..

So where are we now? Alot depends upon Perkins and Jefferson staying healthy so that Clifford Ray can work his magic. Both are UNDERSIZED but could be moderately effective. While we desperately need a quality defensive big apart from Oden the cupboard appears bare for top tier talent.

Thus our best options are for a trade (who is going to give away a franchise-type player?) or to restock our team with the best draft talent available. With the current crop of available players, barring some surprising trade offer, option two seems to offer the most value.

Additionally, I think we can trust in Wally another season. If healthy he can be a good complement from the bench (really a very good one), if not at the end of the season his contract will be easyer to trade.

I think Kirilenko could be obtained for Wally. I think Utah would be very happy to switch those two contracts. They have been rather dissapointed in Kirilenko this season and the two contracts are basically even except Wally’s last for half the years. Ideally I would rather have Wally’s contract because we will get out from under it sooner, but I think the C’s need to take a chance and Kirilenko would fit really well.

It seems to me that what we should do is entirely dependent on what kind of offers Danny is getting for our picks and players (including PP) and what response he’s getting from other teams to the offers he makes. We here can (and will) speculate endlessly, but the franchise could go in several different directions right now, and the best direction is one linked to information we just don’t have. The article is a fine piece of work, but lacking when it comes to the hard points: who should we go after, what are some reasonable trade proposals that would work for both teams?

All that said, I wonder if giving Doc his extension doesn’t indicate that the management views this as another rebuilding/player development year. If it was a year where we’d focus on wins and losses, would Doc be back?

You can’t get Kirilenko for Wally— or Theo. That’s another pipe dream. If you want Kirilenko, you would have to give up Pierce.

Great piece Jeff.

I am interested in hearing from Brick about Noah. Why do you think he is terrible? I don’t think he is top five talent in this draft, but I think he is top ten and will really be able to contribute immediately with defense, hustle, rebounding, and smarts to a team like the suns or the bulls. The guy is passionate and likes to win. I do see red flags (limited offense), but no more than Yi (skinney, good player not great in questionable league) or Wright (desire, frame, project) Horford (I like him, but wonder if he is really a five).

Conley, Oden, and Durant will be gone. For my money I like Brewer. Thoughts

Re MattD; The shortcomings that you mentioned in Jeff’s article may have been intentional because Jeff already knows that the bloggers on this board are so informed that they rarely give “quarter” to poorly conceived trade ideas and rather than expose his excellent article to certain criticism, he can instead sit in judgement at a safe distance.. It comes with experience…..

I am telling you guys. Utah would love to get out from under Kirilenko’s contract. The NBA is set up where bad contracts hurt you for a very long time. Utah has a good group of young players (Williams, Boozer, Okur) who will all be demanding the money to keep the group together. Kirilenko has really upset the Jazz on the court and off in regards to his value. In the NBA if you get a chance to get out of a contract like that and give yourself more flexibility you take it. Wally and probably a second round pick or Allen Ray should get it done. I think the bigger question would be whether the C’s want to take on Kirilenko’s contract. He is similar to Raef LaFrance and we all remember how badly we regretted his contract. But with the state of the C’s I think you take the chance. At least Kirilenko can stay healthy and on the court and offers the defense Raef never did. I think the only hold up here would be if Wyc would sign off on taking Kirilenko’s contract.

Anothe rebuilding year? I don’t think so. Ainge has got to show that he can compete with the rest of the league. 4 years is a long time to rebuild. Its put up or move on. These guys are getting MILLIONS for making these choices. If the players don’t produce they are gone. Management should have the same rules

Kirilenko was an all-star (and currently he is a very good player), Lafrentz was simply a nightmare. Please, dont do that comparison. Perhaps Utah is willing to give up Kirilenko but I think they can obtain more (not only the Celtics would want AK47)

While it’s not my question to answer, but drafting Noah would be very tempting except that it’s so difficult to project his upside. A good predictor for increased upside in a player is demonstrated growth from year to year. Noah’s game seemed to retreat rather than advance in sophistication leaving serious doubts about his potential upside.

Noah could prove to be the steal of the draft if last year was an aberration in his development but who wants to take that risk at #5?

“Channing Frye, Francis, Malik Rose and Jerome James will be shopped religiously. New York Post”
New York: Channing Frye Malik Rose 23rd in this draft
Boston: Theo Ratliff 32nd draft? (or Telfair)

JohnCK, thank you very much. It’s unbelieveable to me how many people want to beat down Noah. Maybe #5 is too high, I don’t know but then trade down and pick him. he is AK47 But stronger and without the huge contract. He would give this team everything it lacks too win games. But instead people want to draft someone with “upside” aka as offensively gifted. Except that while offense is great and pleasing to watch, defense wins games and ultimately championships. I’m not saying Noah is going to get us a championship but he’s a good start in the direction of winning more games than we lose.

Great piece, although with Pierce I think you don’t know what you got til it’s gone. I don’t see Pierce being able to have the season he had 2 years ago. I don’t see C management getting enough help for Paul to make us true contenders.

I know many don’t want us to start from scratch without Pierce, but it is always darkest before the dawn.

   The Draft Express Podcast mentioned a rumor going around that Atlanta would draft Conley and trade him with Josh Smith for LeMarcus Aldridge and Jarrett Jack. That sounds interesting. There’s going to be a lot of deals out there.

wow. a fair, measured, rational analysis of the danny ainge/doc rivers era? wtf? is this the Internet or some crazy fantasy land?

Yep, there will be alot of deals out there, and Ainge will get fleeced as usual. He hasn’t made a good trade since he arrived. He even made a brilliant series of moves that resulted in trading Antoine Walker and a first round draft pick for Antoine Walker and Raef LaFrentz.

Package Pierce with others to Portland to Land Oden, if at all possible and use the #5 pick to grab Conley.

There are rumbling that Conley and Oden want to play together and if so, packaging Pierce to Portland makes sense. Portland has young players currently adding Pierce with Randolph will help them make the playoffs. It could be similar to Carlos Boozer going to Utah.

Trust me this is a thought, and Portland would probably be nuts to do it, but it could make sense for both teams.

Our only problem would be what kind of package would Portland be looking at and we would be getting younger as a team also.

Agree completely. DA has failed miserably. Your timeline of events makes the point.

Why kid ourselves. The failure to get Oden can only leave any fan in a state of utter despondency. And just to remind you, the Celtics were 4-31 without Pierce.

If history is any indication, Ainge is ok at drafting but lousy at trading. So of course the Celtics are hot to trade away their lotto pick. LOL LOL.

The Celtics were exposed as a mismatched, dysfunctional group of talented but unmanageable players.

—————————
They were unmanageable because they didn’t have a coach. Those who are still Celtics still don’t.

The personnel problem isn’t as bad as it looks if they actually had some direction.

————-

This is very well-written.

The sad part about this article is, in fact, Ainge wasn’t willing to trade marginal rotation players to land a superstar, like the Lafrentz/T. Allen for Baron Davis deal he had set in front of him 2 years ago. So, we have squandered in mediocrity due to too much “Ainge Pride” instead of Celtic Pride.

Boston sports fans are amazing. The Red Sox are 13.5 games ahead of the Yankees. The Patriots are a dynasty. The Celtics? They got hit hard in the lottery, sure. But they have some very good players — a budding star in Al Jefferson, and solid core guys like Rondo and Tony Allen, plus a legit all-star in Paul Pierce. The situation is not completely hopeless.

Chalk me up as optimistic — I think we turn it around this year. Even without the good player we’re going to get right now, we were a pretty good club by the end of the year.

“Wallowed” in mediocrity??? Naw, just bad Karma…. I thought that the doomsayers were in retreat but here they come……in force, spewing the same party line. Time to ride another horse, guys. That mare is long dead!

Time to join the “living” and help us devise a strategy for righting the ship!!!!

I like the idea of Kirilenko but think it would take more than Wally to get him. Wally and the #5 pick would possibly do it, but is that too much for us to give up for a guy who’s had injury issues of his own? We could see about trading the #5 for two lower picks (Philly), and then trading Wally, one of those lower picks and then perhaps the #32 for AK-47, keeping a pick in the late teens/early 20s for ourselves.

I tend to think even a moderate-size trade would need to have that sort of complexity to it, because Ratliff by himself won’t get a deal done and many of our other tradeable assets are coming off of injuries so aren’t worth as much as they might be.

Phoenix might be an exception, based on their team and needs…Ratliff, #5 and Gomes for Marion might work, but would Marion add enough to the C’s to make that worthwhile?

This draft was billed as the draft of the decade, and now all of a sudden, its panick time and we’ve got to trade the pick for a guy who couldn’t get it done somewhere else. This is crazy. What we need is more talent to go with our talented young players. We’ve not had a top 5 pick since Chauncey, lets keep and take the best player we can get. if we can add other role players by moving someone not named Jefferson, then fine. Utah clearly needs a wing player and would parlay Kirilenko for one, I’m sure. If I had Kirilenko for 5 more years, I trade that for PP for 6 in a minute. But I’m not sure I’d give him away. And I’n not sure Boston wants him unless they can move PP or Wally. He’s a lot of money.
   But no matter what, the 5th should be the 2nd or 3rd best player on the team very soon, an I’d be careful what I traded it for. After all, its the draft of the Century.

I didn’t want to read this column at first (because the past is so sad) but it did make one great point, loyalty. Jeff was right when he said that Danny put Doc in a tough situation, to lose with dignity. I bet when Doc was being asked for that umpteenth time about “tanking” he wantec to say “Tony Allen ain’t walking through that door, Theo ain’t walking through that door. Paul might walk through that door, but with a noticable limp.” but through it all he just smiled and took it. So he was rewarded. Our managment may be sub-par, but its loyalty goes a long way.

this is a myth and at best, partially true, “Doc accepted the long-term vision and sacrificed the short-term focus on wins and losses (something Oâ€â"¢Brien couldnâ€â"¢t stomach) so he was recently rewarded with a contract extension.” this team entered the season thinking they were playoff bound. it was only after a brutal start and then the losing strak during pierce’s absence, that the mentality switched. and doc accepted this “long-term vision” for one reason, and one reason only – it was the only way to save his job.

as far as the future, it is difficult to say trade pierce or keep pierce without knowing what is an option. if i were danny, i’d be open to anything, and if a good offer comes up for pierce, i’d pull the trigger. i am a huge pierce fan, he has always played hard and played well for the c’s. the celtics have failed him throughout his career, not the other way around. he can’t single-handedly carry a team for a season. he isn’t lebron james or kobe, but he isn’t far off. but if you trade pierce, what can you get? you aren’t moving into the top 2 of the draft? i’d lean towards keeping pierce, draft noah who i think is most ready to help an NBA now, hope for a healthy tony allen, look to move wally for anything, try to sing a veteran PF/PG and make a real run at the atlantic.

In words of Marlon Brando in Apocalypse Now, “I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor…..That’s my dream. My nightmare. To crawl along the edge of a straight razor, and survive.”

I think a lot depends on who is available draft night. As I said before, having Hibbert go back to school hurt a lot. He might have been available at the five spot and I would have taken him. I feel that Pierce needs to move on. Trade him and get a quality player plus at least one first round draft pick. Side note: I love Pierce but I can’t ever get over the fact that he cut his teeth with Antoine and he ball hogs at all the wrong moments. I do think that Al Jeff’s game might suffer if Pierce leaves as Pierce often found him down low (so to speak.)

From Apocalipse Now I prefer this one: I love the smell of napalm in the morning-Rovert Duvall.

No thanks to this idea. Under no circumstances, whatsoever, should this pick be traded, unless the Cavs decide that keeping LeBron around is a real drag. I love Paul, but he is 30 years old. You don’t that many chances at a top 5 pick in a draft like this, and when you do get one, you take it EVERY time. If Paul doesn’t like it, too bad. Dealing away the highest pick we’ve had in a decade, in a very strong draft, to appease Pierce wouldn’t be unwise, it would be stupid. Paul only has about 3 more years of top play left in him, and that is IF he stays healthy.

It is time for Wyc and Danny to wake up and get with the program. The object is to win a title, not to put together a pretty good team that has NO chance of winning one. Is atking a guy like Brewer a risk? Yeah, but he may turn out to be something special. The same is true of many other players in this draft. What is a certainty is that Paul is getting older and won’t be the same guy anymore by the time that we are ready to really compete. I’ll take a possible greatness over assured mediocrity every day of the week.

Danny publicly saying he is entertaining trading the #5 pick and most bloggers would rather do that than to keep it or trade Pierce.

As the saying goes, be careful for what you wish for.

I have a hunch I will have the same sick feeling come draft day as I did last year when they announced the Telfair deal. I will tune in with a bottle of Pepto-Bismal though- this year I am prepared for what Danny throws at us.

I wasn’t fooled last year with all this “we make the playoffs” hype. I won’t be fooled this year in over valuing what Danny does when he deals the pick either.

What Danny has to do too is when he makes the #5 trade, explain to the Celtic masses how we are still not championship contenders- or “puff” it and say we now are. Obviously we will then be “rebuilding” in another 3 or 4 years so again, he needs to explain why we need to suffer 4 years from now, if this #5 trade barely gets us out of the first round of the playoffs next year.

I can feel another “I told you so” moment coming in 3 to 4 years.

Ancient Red, either you are joking on on something really nice.

We could offer our entire team to Portland for the #1 and they wouldn’t do it… even if we could magically put Pierce on veterans minimum salary, they still wouldn’t do it. The only attractive player we have to a rebuilding team is Jefferson and that doesn’t get us the #1 pick… not this year.

nice read Jeff, and I too appreciate your use of the word “drunkard.”

With all due respect, however, I think what you are advocating is just more of the same. Sit around with Pierce, make a splashy trade, continue to fail. Outside of Tim Duncan, there is no single player in the league you could pair with Pierce and expect to win a title. Yes, even Garnett, who would cost us Big Al. would make the team the 3rd or 4th best team in the east, and leave us with nowhere to go but down as both players age and grow less productive. It’s sad, but it’s the way it is.

By making a move for J O’Neal, you might be a team that can compete with the Wizards, but each passing year will again result in diminishing returns. Plus, you are saddled with another bad contract that will prevent ownership from adding more pieces to the fold. Perhaps this feeds into Ainge’s astoundingly flawed plan to develop the bench through the draft and trade for stars, but it will not work in today’s NBA.

As for any other course of action, the problem is, of course, in trading Pierce you risk not only getting little back in return, but the danger of having to take on more bad contracts, simply to extract an asset or two. Ainge’s moves have driven the team into a corner that will require years to back out of. But I would rather begin the process of backing out of a flawed plan now, than to add more time and money to this disaster.

Keep Big Al, draft Brewer or Conley Jr, and start over. Build the team around a big man (Big Al) and a real, playmaking point guard (Conley). If Conley isn’t available, go with Brewer to shore up the wing defense, and cut Tony Allen free. Add the most talented players you can every year in the draft and trade for need when a player becomes available. If you continue patiently, then maybe in 2011 when Greg Oden is demanding a trade to a contender, the Celtics might actually be that team.

Thanks for letting me vent. I know the Celtics will keep Pierce and trade the 5th pick, but it feels like a mistake we all see coming from a mile away. Kudos to you for remaining optimistic, and hopefully Danny will find the right trade, even only if it’s thrown into his lap by a superior GM looking to dump salary.

Can we talk tough decisions…where is the party when Danny pulls off the Trade landing Gasol?

I am going about the Portland trade,, wishful thinking on my part…. something to last me till the draft

I am joking about the Portland trade……….ops

PS – Jeff, love the Doors reference in the title

I agree with everyone that says to get Gasol. He is a high post type player that would compliment pierce and jefferson. The question i have is can we get him and still keep the #5 pick? i would hate to pass on Brewer and see him turn into a lock down defender and unselfish player who is ok being the third option on a team.

Jeff, Excellent recap of Danny’s tenure. Looking back at it I don’t know if that team of Payton, Blount, Davis, Walker, Pierce was as big of a failure as Danny made it out to be. Walker was only with the team for a fraction of the season, and Al Jefferson, Tony Allen, and Marcus Banks all looked like very promising rookies.(Delonte was looking like the worst of the bunch.) Banks and Allen were really disrupted defensively. Hopefully rondo and allen will have a similar effect. I just think that Danny gave up on that team way too early and tossed walker and payton away for little in return. Blount for all his faults may just be a better center than anyone we currently have on the team. I think that team, with a different coach could have seen a great deal of success. A new coach possibly would have solved the problems with Banks, Blount, and Davis.

Corey Brewer could be this years Dwayne Wade. With the uncertain play of Wally and Tony Allen and Gerald Green being far away, He could help tremendously right away as a lock down defender next to Pierce. Wally, Tony and Gerald can either come off the bench or be used when we have a small lineup. Don’t trade Pierce just yet. A core of Brewer, PP, rondo and Jefferson could easily make the playoffs next year.

Why the rush to want to give up the 5th pick? We could very well be adding a guy who is ready to contribute…NOW. Brewer or Horford will probably step right into the NBA as quality young starters. With Atlanta likely to take Conley, either Brewer or Horford will be available at #5. If we’re not getting back Garnett or Gasol, I’d keep the pick.

Hold onto that # 5 lotto pick. The reason for that can be summed up in two words: Sebastian Telfair. There are at least four more words that bolster this reasoning: Al Jefferson & Rajon Rondo.

Unless the organization added an NBA scout (contrary to some published reports), Ainge’s track record for trades as compared to draft picks is scary.

This draft is so deep that it doesn’t end with Oden and Perkins. If Pierce will fetch another top 10 draft pick in this exceedingly deep draft, they could actually get two young players who better fit the system than Pierce and even Durant. Ainge’s eye for young talent is his strength. Pierce for all his ability hasn’t meshed well enough so far (admitting that injuries affected this) with the team’s emerging young talent to take the team to the next level without veteran help. However, I have little confidence in Danny’s ability to make such a trade but feel better about him getting the right players (if he has two picks in the top 10 or 15) to significantly improve the team without Pierce and without those top 2 franchise players.

Only Oden and Durant seem like can’t miss rookies but even that’s not a slam dunk given history. Draft history is such that players who might turn out as well or better will be drafted later (in the late first and even the second round). Given the seeming depth of talent in this draft, is it that much of a stretch to believe that Ainge can find talent comparable to Wade (at #5) and Pierce (at #10 or so)? Wasn’t Nowitzki picked immediately after Pierce in that same draft?

If the team did as good a job scouting the amateurs as in recent years, there might be a combination of players (e.g. Horford and Brewer or whoever Ainge likes best) that will be available at #5 and at a presumably high (top 15) pick that could be acquired for Pierce and an expiring large salary.

What exactly was the point of this article, Jeff? Have you been reduced to rubber stamping whatever Wyc and Danny want now? They are fully behind Pierce? Wow, so they should start dealing away the young players they have now so that Paul can be appeased? I like Paul as much as the next guy, and I REALLY wanted us to have a shot at winning it all with him, but trading away a high lotto pick for a guy who is NOT going to get us a title isn’t my idea of a positive move for this team.

It seems to me that this team is thinking of trading this pick, and some of our more promising youth, away so that we can “win now”. Not win a Title, just win some meaningless regular season games and then get bounced out of the playoffs, all so that they can say that “Hey, at least we made the playoffs and made some noise”. A few years down the road, when Paul is used up, and the guy that we got is most likely in the same boat, we are then forced to blow the whole thing up. Sorry, if that isn’t stupid, what is?

Now, if my memomory serves me correctly, we got Pierce with a #10 pick in a draft that wasn’t anywhere near as good as this one. Paul is going to be 30 at the start of this season, and has made his living crashing into 3 guys on his way to the hoop, usually ending up on the floor, 20 times a night. He missed most of this last season with injuries, and while I don’t think that he’s suddenly going to be a fragile player, I doubt that he’s going to be the iron man in the future that he was in the past. I do not doubt his skill, not do I doubt his desire, but Paul is what he is. So why should any of us want to put this squad on a 3 year timetable to win a title for him? Eespecially when he would be a valuable trading chip for us?

There is a lot of pressure on Wyc and Danny to get better fast, and they are very tempted to make a completely idiotic decision to make that happen ASAP. Mind you that the pressure that they are feeling isn’t so much with regards to building a truly competitive basketball team as it is with keeping the fans walking throught the door this season. Well, what happens three or four years down the road when Paul is done, and we traded away the guys that could replace him? Another friggin five year plan, that’s what.

Did it ever occur to you that Wyc and company may be thinking to themselves “This basketball gig is tougher than we thought, and we want to sell ASAP.”? That we might be looking at another Gaston job, where the owner makes a short term move that kills the team long term, just because it serves his own short term goals. Maybe it isn’t that, and maybe Wyc is just another owner who wants to be good enough to get people to show up, but winning it all is way back on his list of priorities. I could care less what he SAYS, it is what he DOES that matters.

I don’t want a few years of pretty good, I want over a decade of Title contending. That takes patience, brains and guts. Trading this pick away would be falling short in all three areas.

SmokingBird said:

“I am interested in hearing from Brick about Noah. Why do you think he is terrible?”

Noah is Anderson Varejao (who was a 2nd round pick) without Varejao’s jump shot. You don’t waste a lottery pick on a player like that.

Tiago Splitter is a far better player than Noah. Far, far better.

Gotta say, Mike, I almost entirely agree.

On the boston.com board, someone suggested trading Pierce and #5 for #2. I would totally support this trade if it were remotely feasible (Seattle doesn’t have any dead salary to offer, and there’s no way they’d give up on Durant for Pierce and Noah/Yi/whatever anyway).

It’s funny, I’ve supported every move that Ainge has made up till now, at the time it was made. That’s not to say that I necessarily would have made those moves, myself, but I very quickly talked myself into them. But it’s now clear that a lot of them have been mistakes, and some have been huge mistakes. The original Antoine trade; the 2nd Antoine trade; signing Blount; the Wally trade; the Telfair debacle; the Scalabrine signing (oddly, though this was the smallest mistake, it seems to draw the most ire from fans).

Furthermore, I think that Danny has done a good job drafting, but he has not been the infallible draft genius that many have made him out to be. Even aside from using the #7 pick on Telfair, he could have gotten two out of Boris Diaw, Josh Howard, and Leandro Barbosa when he instead came out of the 2003 draft with Banks and Perkins. He could have had Kevin Martin instead of Delonte West or Tony Allen. And, after his WEEI interview last week, I am now firmly convinced that if he could have drafted Swift instead of Jefferson, he would have. Yes, he got unlucky this year in landing the #5 slot. But he also got lucky in 2004 that Seattle chose Conan O’Brien so he wouldn’t be able to.

I’ve spent a lot of time recently trying to figure out the right way to build a basketball team. One of my conclusions is that one of the most important attributes that a good GM must have is an accurate sense of how good his team is. Until the team is within reach of contending for a championship,
1. Do NOT trade for any longterm or expensive contracts.
2. Do NOT sign any free agents to longterm or expensive contracts. Make an exception here only when there is a clear superstar available for a bargain.
3. As Brick says, draft for talent, trade for need.
4. Along with this, stockpile draft picks.
5. Finally, after having established a talented core of players and having cleared cap-space, target the kinds of free agents or other veteran players who can put you over the top for a Championship run.

Following these steps is basically what the Bulls have done in recent years, although I think even they made a mistake in thinking that Ben Wallace could put them over the top and in therefore giving up on a younger version who was likely to be better soon.

Danny has done a good job of stockpiling draft picks, but he has also screwed up a bit here (the 2nd Antoine trade; the trade for Telfair; and the trade for Rondo, who, while I like him, cost the #24 pick in a very strong and deep draft when Sergio was available for just cash). I really hope that he has the acuity to know that we’re more than just a single player away from contending (unless we could add Garnett for just #5 Theo Wally, but that won’t happen), and therefore that he needs to HOLD ONTO the draft pick.

Gaining a few wins for the next 4 years but not contending will, as you say, Mike, leave us having to really blow things up in 4 years when Paul and the veteran have proven that they can’t win a championship. Better to trade Paul now for someone who will be better 4 years from now than Paul will be then.

My greatest fear in not getting the first or second pick was that not only were we missing out on a ‘franchise’ player but also that we would almost certainly trade our pick.

The fact that everyone knows that we are looking to deal the #5 pick undervalues it. I think that it is imperative to wait until we see who is available at #5 before considering trading it. Unless we can get someone who is youngish for the pick such as Gasol or AK47, we should hold onto it. Since Danny has done well drafting in the teens and twenties, I believe that he will probably do well drafting at the five spot. I feel that Brewer or Conley would be prudent choices, while B. Wright and Jianlian would be riskier choices with potential upside.

They better keep the pick and they better use it on brewer

I agree 100% with MikeD. Trading the pick for a spotty vet is not worth it. I’d rather we see how Pierce plays with the #5 pick than make some rash decision that we need to trade everything to win now. That would doom us a few years down the line to seasons like the one we just had, and we’d probably lose Al Jeff to free agency leaving us with NOTHING.