Theory Challenged: Trading Theo

Great analysis. I think it is better to move Wally and have Theo expire for cap room, especially if we get a top two pick this year.

It’s about time somebody took the time to illustrate this. Theo only gets traded with Al or the rest of that group of young players (West, Allen, Telfair, Gomes and Ray). Similarly, Gerald and Wally make a nice package…Gerald would be extended when Wally’s current deal expires.

And you haven’t even factored in a possible extension for Tony Allen.

This is why I keep saying that if Gasol (or Marion, or KG or JO) comes, Pierce or Jefferson will have to go.

you illustrate an ongoing concern (saving money) that will become the driving force behind almost every decision celtics make.

get used to the idea of not keeping all the kids…someone you like (G$, gomes, west, tallen) will be moved before they have to be re-signed.

i would caution that jefferson will be asking for more than the 9M/yr you have estimated.

in 2008 we could move wallys 13 million and use Gerald.
green might be ready this upcoming yr if so move wally
even sooner. after theos 11.67 million
is removed, replace it with a 10.5 million contract
we need to have more parity in salary for down the road
trades and keeping talent . lower salary spots of theo and wally with lesser salaries to help offset all the rookie
expiring contracts and their new salaries

Allen doesn’t have a contract in the 08/09 season. It is a qualifying offer so that is merely the minimum he could be signed for. The team would also need to add two additional players to get to 15 (assuming Allen is re-signed). I would imagine one of the roster spots would be the 2008 first rounder, but that still leaves another slot open.

BTW, this is why I would trade Pierce if at all possible. His contract is just so big. Him and Jefferson will be more than half of the cap and about 45% of the luxury tax limit. That is just too big a price to pay for two players (unless they are Shaq and Kobe or the like).

You forgot to put Scal on the roster for 2009/10. In 2009/10 he earns $3,413,793.

excellent anaylysis, Jeff since this is exactly how danny, wyc and steve are looking at it. they are numbers guys- you have to be to be a successful business person. the talk about paying the luixury tax isn’t going to happen anytime soon. If you look at the biggest drain on salary it’s Pierce. what happens a year from now when Pierce is on the decline or let’s say he misses another 30 games next year? then where is his trade value? I think the windw of opportunity to trade pierce is quickly closing. This is a very deep draft and I would not be opposed to moving Pierce for a player, a pick and an expiring contract to a team that is a LOT closer than we are. Frankly, Pierce is a luxury this team can’t afford if it truly wants to build a championship team. we already missed out on a chance to get Pierce’s successor ( brandon roy) in what will become known as the worst trade in celtic history. we missed out on trading pierce for chris paul and I dare say we missed out on trading him for luol deng when we could have probably had deng and maybe gordon as well. hanging onto Pierce is going to be a mistake.

Excellent analysis, especially for those who dream about some great trade. I like a lot of people have already reached the conclusion that Theo’s expiring contract is probably going to have to go to pay people like Jefferson, Tony Allen, etc. Anyone who is counting on it for anything more is probably being unrealistic.

Well you can quibble about some of the numbers, e.g. the secound rounder will likely get a two-year deal with a team option for a 3rd year. Also, Gomes isn’t worth 5M, and they could always trade Ratliff for a player making up to 25% less, e.g. Boris Diaw or Marcus Camby.

However, if they want to get West for less than the MLE they had better do it before he hits restricted free agency, because even though some folks here think he can’t play, the rest of the league knows better.

But the table Jeff has posted highlights (1) why the max extension for Pierce may not have been such a good idea, (2) why taking on LaFrentz was so destructive, and (3) why the Blount signing was so horrible, because now, instead of Ricky Davis, we have the useless, cap clogging, untradeable Szczerbiak. If instead of resigning Blount, they had signed someone like Mikki Moore to a three year deal starting at the veterans’ minimum, the Celtics would be in far, far better shape today.

And the most depressing thing (apart from the continuing presence of Rivers) is that I can see them throwing even more money and a high draft choice at some other underperforming, overpaid veteran who they think might put a few more tushies in the seats. It’s sad, really.

I have trouble understanding the logic of a team trading an impact veteran, a player we’d be interested in, for Theo’s contract. Clearly someone else would be included. The analysis is very instructive to show how the salaries excalate with just the inflation of players we currently have. Interesting dilemma: You can’t win with all kids, and you can’t keep them all together when they do grow up.

The key is not only Theo’s contract but also Wally’s. You may fine that Danny trades both Players away.

Let’s not overvalue our players also assuming that they will actually be receiving a higher salary.

For one Allen is caught in between with his off court and injury status, the Celtics may be able to sign him for alot lower.

As far as Delonte and Jefferson, your analysis is too high on their salary.

I believe that there is a threshold as to how high a team can pay a player based on his previous contract, for example the highest Jefferson can make his 1st year is %0 of his previous base and same goes for Delonte and Gomes.

Your figures are too high in your analysis of the Salary Break down for 2008/09

The Celtics currently have 3 players making over 10 million and 12 players making less than 5 million.

If anything I see them keeping Theo and holding onto the money. They’ve talked to Theo about retiring and letting the Insurance company pay him off, which in turn take them off the Celtics books

They are only in the luxury tax for one year. After Wally’s contract drops off they are in great shape even if they do package Theo. I think you have to let one of those contracts expire but not necessarily both. I guess it comes down to how badly the Celtics filthy rich owners with their publicly funded arena, local TV contract, and huge market and tradition want to win. If they are lucky enough to get Durrant, it would be very disapointing that they would be so cheap that they wouldn’t suck it up and pay a luxury tax for one stinking year to get a guy like Camby who would make the team a contender. But, there are few life forms lower than the typical professional sports franchise owner, so I fully expect the worst and for the owners to do nothing, aquire no one outside the draft, all so they don’t have cram a crowbar in their overstuffed corporate welfare queen wallets and pay for a decent team.

No, Roy Hobbes, from a luxury tax perspective, the team is in far worse shape than the numbers might suggest.

Let’s start with the fact that the players listed on the payroll chart above produced exactly 24 wins last year. You could justify paying a little luxury tax for a team that produced additional revenue by getting to, say, the second round of the playoffs.

But as this team is presently constitued and with its present coach, there is zero chance of getting out of the lottery in 2007-2008, and probably 2008-2009 as well. I say it again, ZERO chance. And the highly-paid Mr. Pierce isn’t getting any younger.

Now, if they find a better coach, draft well (and I note that NOT getting the #1 or #2 pick would save quite a bit of money) and make a few intelligent trades for cost effective players, my gloomy prognosis might change. But is anyone confident that Ainge will do that, or instead, will they kepp Rivers and then throw even more money down the drain by trying to make the “big” deal for PR purposes?

Well done…but, am I missing something…what about the $$$ for #1’s picked after this year?…could be an optimist and slot them for a pick on the late teens or twenties

I have no confidence that a team built around Pierce, Gasol and Jefferson would make the playoffs, and Gasol’s contract would be another long-term cap killer.

To make the playoffs, you have to defend. With Jefferson and Gasol down there, the paint would become a superhighway for the other team.

I think if we’re so quick to trade someone it should involve our 1st round pick. The 1 or 2 pick get an amazing amount of money when they haven’t proven a thing. And I’m not saying to trade it for the sake of trading or salary cap, but to get the proven player that would help us immediately. I think some GM would go for this.

I’ve been in the ‘patient with Danny camp’—and I still am—but by ‘08-’09 I’m expecting a contending team. Unless they find a way to trade Pierce by then as well, I am thus also expecting Wyc to make good on his willingness to pay the luxury tax.

OWN OPP DIF OWN OPP OWN OPP FT% OFF DEF TOT OWN OPP

92.2 88.5 3.7 44.83 43.60 .37 .33 71.06 .257 .719 .490 1.0 0.8

That is Memphis’s stats from 2006. They gave up 88.5 points per game and held opponents to 43.6% from the field. Only the Clippers, San Antonio and Houston held opponents to a lower shooting percentage in the Western Conference and no one held opponents to fewer points. That is a good defensive team.

I don’t see how Gasol can be that bad of a defender yet be the best player and starting center on a team that plays defense that well. I think the whole “Gasol can’t defend” is just another example of “he is white, he must not be able to do anything but shoot” disease.

Memphis’ terrible defense did show up statistically. They won exactly 22 games, and some of those wins came when Gasol was hurt.

If the Celtics want to do something smart, they will offer Pierce, West and Green for Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Tinsley. They they should move Ratliff and Gomes for Diaw, and trade Perkins and the MN future first or their 2008 first for Brendan Haywood.

O’Neal/Haywood
Jefferson/Powe
Diaw/draft pick (e.g. Durant with #2 or Corey Brewer with #3)
Allen/draft pick (e.g. Tucker, Almond or Byars with #32)
Tinsley/Rondo

I’ll go to war with that and easily make the second round of the playoffs, assuming that Rivers wasn’t coaching the team.

I don’t know much about how Memphis plays, but defensive stats can be misleading. If your a team that slows down the game and uses alot of clock you’ll keep your opponent’s scoring down. I could see Gasol as a nice addition to the team, but not at the cost of a PP or Jefferson. I’m not sure he’ll be that much of a difference maker though. There are probably other players, that are not marquee players, that could help us more and that we might be able to get, but unfortunately I don’t have the knowledge to name them. I think that’s the type of player we should be looking for, not the Gasols, O’Neills, Garnetts.

“Memphis’ terrible defense did show up statistically. They won exactly 22 games, and some of those wins came when Gasol was hurt.”

We are talking about 2006 here Brick. When Gasol played the entire year, they won 49 games playing in the West and put up the defensive stats pointed out above. Memphis, at least before this year, was a very good defensive team and a good team overall. The facts just don’t back up what you are saying.

Looking at the Playoffs,

Is Dirk the MVP that he deserves?

Does Iverson make Denver that much better?

Where was Kobe’s 50 points a game?

Heat came ready to play with their All-Stars

Golden State’s lunch pail making waves

New Jersey’s making the youngesters squirm

[So where does our current state leave our team at?]

My thoughts are that Danny isn’t going to make a trade that will increase our payroll. He’s rolling the dice with this Lottery pick and that’s it

This is why I thought Pierce’s max extension was a stupid move. The owners let Pierce threaten them into giving him the max when he doesn’t deserve it. Let’s be honest here, few players in the NBA deserve to be paid around that 20 mark, because they are just not dominant enough to justify taking up so much cap space.

If Pierce really wanted to accelerate our rebuilding process, he would have signed for less. I don’t expect him to, but since he took the money I DO expect him to shut up and not whine when the team struggles. He has a right to make as much as he wants, but not to cry about how he’s stuck on a bad team.

Out horrible cap situation is why it’s pretty much Oden or bust this offseason. Oden would be a cheap player who could start for us the next four years. Otherwise it will be very difficult to acquire another impact player this summer unless the owners are willing to pay the tax (FAT CHANCE).

God, Tinsley, a career 39% shooter and Rondo running the point, I am not sure that team could score 80 points a game brick. My God they would be ugly to watch.

Ancient Red, even though I said above to trade the first round pick (assuming it’s 1 or 2), I think your last paragraph is what’s going to happen. I also think what we’re forgetting in all this, is that our core players will get better next year and that we won’t have the injuries we had this year (I hope). If TA can come back reasonably soon our defense will get better and Al is getting better defensively. Also we’ll have some roster continuity. I don’t think our situation is that desperate and with a few tweaks of the current roster I think it will be a different type of year.

Haywood is better than Perkins. It’s not even close.

As for the 2005-06 Memphis team, they had Shane Battier, Eddie Jones, Bobby Jackson and Lorenzen Wright— all above-average to excellent defenders who made up for Gasol’s weak defense. They were also a slow down, half court team under Fratello. They only acored 92 points a game on average.

With Battier et. al. traded away, the 2006-2007 Grizzlies gave up a whopping 106.7 points per game— dead last in the league.

I’ll take a healthy Perk over Haywood.

Jefferson is a better defender than Gasol.

If you think about it, one of the reasons the Celtics desperately need the #1 pick is financial. If they draft Oden, they can simply stand back, pat themselves on the head and call it a day. They have their savior, and Ratliff’s contract will be simply allowed to expire.

And the marketeers will make at least a dozen commercials featuring Oden and that dumb cardboard cutout. They probably use the cutout because they are too cheap to hire an real actor.

i’m no capologist but don’t some of the higher paids in other sports restructure their contracts to allow some breathing room for desired signings, a la tom brady. is it possible that pp could alter some of how he gets paid to service a good signing?

If the Celtics get Oden, they won’t do anything but let Theo’s and Wally’s contracts and expire and rake in the millions. If they happen to win, that will just be a nice bonus but not essential from the owner’s perspective.

You have Gomes and West pegged in at $5 million a year. Are those two guys really MLE players? I don’t think so. West is a tweener who can’t go to his left and Gomes is a tweener forward who can’t be a full time starter. They are both decent players, but I think it would be foolish to give either of them $5 million a year. I think a Scal like $3 million a year seems more appropriate. Look at it this way, would anyone here by that happy if Gomes or West played on other teams and the Celtics gave them $5 million a year as free agents?

Brick:
I agree with pretty much everything you said except what you said about Blount and Mikki Moore. Blount gave every indication that he would continue to progress as a player and respond to coaching. Of course, that requires us to have a coach….We haven’t had one since Blount signed the extention.

I have been watching Mikki Moore since he played at Nebraska. I didn’t see a whole lot of NBA talent then….and the Nets are his 8th team he’s played on in (including them twice) 8 years. You’d pretty much have to be psychic to see him performing at the level he has this season. But I harken back to the coaching thing….and he also has Jason Kidd on his team.

Your 24 win point with this roster is THE point. I hope Danny and Wyc see that. If they keep the roster intact: Start with a coach…and a conditioning program. My biggest fear is that Big Al sees how management compromised it’s integrity tanking for a pick. After signing the extention, comes in less than stellar shape, and can’t stay healthy. That’s why I never thought tanking was a good idea. Too many young players.

I think this is the great dilemma about trading Theo and not Wally. And there are just not that many big expiring contracts out there this year to be able to dump Wally, even if you dump part of his money and take a long-term smaller contract back in return. There are ways sure, but they are just not easy if you want to move both Theo and Wally.

I like Gomes and West, but if they are going to jam up plans for core players they have to be expendable. I would start thinking about how you could replace them, and the obvious way is you deal them for late first round picks in the next 2 drafts. Playoff teams would like players that have already shown they can play in the NBA to help them fill out a rotation, and the Cs would them get players in 2 supposed deep drafts who would make small salaries throughout the course of Pierce’s contract. I would aso make a move to sin Tony Allen on the cheap now. With his injury giving him some security, say a Scal type 5 year/$15M contract, may be appealing. It’s a risk, but if he comes back to what he was pre-injury he’s a steal for a rotation player.

Also, I know Jeff is swapping out Theo just to make the example clear, but likely Theo would be used in a deal to bring am impact player here Thus, Green and others would likely go as well (bu that may just balance salary). But if the Cs don’t have a top 2 pick, that pick is likely to go as well, so that salary line would come out of the numbers above. If the Cs get a top 2 pick, use it, the I’m not sure they have the chips to move Theo for anything of value with just Green as a desirable trade component (I assume Jefferson and Rondo are off limits). If the get Durant or Oden, I think Theo will be llowed to expire and a trade for a veteran will happen only if Wally is moved. That may be anywhere from this summer through the summer of 2008 when he will then only have a year left and be more desirable. I think the Cs migh prefer a year of Pierce, Jefferson, Rondo, Oden/Durant forming the core and perhaps seeing what happens with Green before they make a move. They woud also be another year closer to the end of Scal’s contract, making him easier to move in a package. Of course, it all depends who’s on the market this summer. Their hand may get forced.

Just a small point. Wally had a 10% trade kicker when he was traded tht HoopsHype -and many data sources – never gets right. He’s actally due to make about $1M more each of the next 2 seasons.

Also, it’s very hopeful thinking that Jefferson starts at $9M, so far below the max.

   The salaries are way out of whack for the big time players. Pierce gets a $20MM deal, but we only competed against ourselves. No one else was in a position or disposition to match that. jefferson will get his near max deal, because the Celtics are afraid not to give it to him. I’d think Perk established what West / Gomes will get, namely about 4 yrs/16MM.
   As far as bringing other guys in, it sounds absurd to be looking forward to brendan Haywood being on your team. Wasington’s defense is horrible, and Hayward had some harmony problems. We’d be better off trying to get Gadzurich or Joe Smith, someone that has energy.
   With the development of Jefferson and Rondo, and the maturation of the others, this team is not the 23 victory team that played last season. With good health and no additions, this team can compete with Toronto, and could win 40 games.

Great job Jeff. I have been trying to make this point for a while, but have never been able to explain it so clearly and concisely. I would like to add though that even though Ratliff is pretty much off limits this year for a trade IMO, there are still a couple ways we could make a big deal happen. First, we could use Wally instead of Ratliff. We will certainly have to give up more value in order to get it done, however, he only has two years left (like Ratliff did last year), and is not nearly as untradable as people think. But basically, you will have to include the equivalent of a first round pick to make up the difference between Wally and Ratliff…and it will disqualify certain teams from considering it, if they are in a similar cap situation as us. But it is possible.

The other option is to dump Wally for an expiring contract mid-season. I have thought for a while that this is exactly what they have earmarked the Minnesota pick for. If Wally shows he is healthy, he could have some value by the trade deadline, since he would only have a year left on his deal. If you can pull that off, it would allow you to move Ratliff in a bigger deal. But unfortunately, there are not many large expiring contracts around the league this year.

Haywood can score the ball. Gadzuric has zero offensive skills (except when he plays against the Celtics, when he gets about 15 offensive rebounds every time. Well, Marty Conlon killed the Celtics when he was with Milwaukee too, and then when the Celtics traded for him he turned out to be a complete stiff.)

I suggested a non-exclusive list of players I view as cost effective in a post I made yesterday. I suggested Haywood because he’s on the outs with Wizards management and they have reportedly removed his nameplate, too.

well that is fun and very useful, Jeff.

A couple ways to go already pointed out here. Just let the wally and theo contracts expire. If we have oden/durant we are in good shape anyway. Maybe Wally is healthy enough to help for 20 minutes a game and we go to war with: Oden, Al, Wally, PP, Rondo and a very solid bench.

We do trade Theo for a good player but one not making 8-10 not 12 mill. We throw in Gomes and Scal. That gives us the room we need.

Its not realistic we could move wally at the same time. He would have to go somehwre else and we’d have to trade him with a good player and probably a good pick, to get something in return. Thios coupemrealistically produce a Wally, Tony and a pick for a solid vet. We are going to hate that one as it will feel a lot like the trade during the draft last year

As an alternative which is not mentioned, if we’re not satisfied with where the pick is, it can go with Theo and an assorted bundle from Telfair/Gomes/West/Allen to get us a star caliber player and another veteran. This is a three or more for one dump, where Theo is a salary swap with the star player, and the pick and one or more of the youngsters swap with another veteran player.

wow, the last sentance was supposed to be " This could realistically produce a .."

We should offer Theo, Wally and the pick (if it is #3 or lower) to Miami for Shaq and Miami’s #1 this year.

And in 2009, when Shaq has retired and players like Corey Brewer and Julian Wright are all-stars that would be a good move how? Why would Shaq leave Miami? His legacy is secure, he could just retire or not care anymore and show up 50 lbs more over weight than he does. Even if he wanted to play, even under the best conditions would he play more than three years. No way would I give up a top five pick in this draft for a two or three year Shaq rental.

I’d do that trade for Shaq, even though he killed me in fantasy BBall with his foul shooting.

According to Jeff’s calculations, including projected salaries of our 1st and 2nd round draft choices, the financial “hit” for ‘07-’08 would be around 66 million dollars (if we kept Ratliff).

If Ratliff can PLAY his trade value goes up and his value to the Celtic’s increases (being both productive as a player and saving future cap space). If , however, Ratliff stays in injury reserve status insurance PAYS his salary, thereby increasing his value as trade bait (team acquiring him for “free” with bonus of acquiring cap space). If Ratliff stays with us in injury reserve status, his salary is paid by insurance thereby reducing management’s roster cost bt 11.5 million. With that savings management could afford a luxury tax hit without surpassing Jeff’s original projected 66 million roster layout.

We could sign a player with the MLE, pay a luxury tax and still cost the owners less than 66 million (factoring in insurance $$$ off-set for Ratliff).

While it’s fun to speculate about roster movements, we’ll need to see who we draft #1 and #2 before projecting future needs.

On second thought, I take it all back Brick. That is brilliant. Shack would only play two years but when he retired all that salary would go poof. Further, Shaq might buy into it. He could be the first player ever to lead three different teams to a title. Now, that is a legacy. Further, would their be a better way to stick to that second rate porn producer Jerry Buss and the Lakers than to bring the Celtics back to the promised land? Pierce is every bit or better of a player than Wade. A lineup of Shaq, Jefferson, and Pierce might just win the title if Shaq worked out and came into camp in shape, espeically if you could get a decent PG for the MLE.

At the end of the two years, you trade Pierce for what you can get, take the cap room from Shaq’s retiring and sign some vets and start over again around Jefferson and hopefully Allen. I like it.

Another possibility is to do something smaller with Ratiff’s contract that allows the C’s to not give up too much. For instance, trade Theo, Gomes and Telfair (and maybe our 2nd rounder if needed) to the Warriors for Harrington and Jasikevicius. That would give the Warriors some payroll relief to resign Ellis, Pietrus and Biedrins, and someone to take Al’s place in Gomes. For the C’s, they would get a backup to Rondo with an expiring contract, a solid vet and third scorer with a reasonable contract in Harrington, and probably wouldn’t have to give up much else. Accounting for the Gomes salary projection above, our payroll would only be about 65 mil for the 08/09 season. That would still give the C’s the possibility of using Wally’s expiring deal the following year to add another impact player.

Greatttt read, very creative. I’m guessing with the last idea of trading Theo with gomes and west, that we’d be taking back a pg? With bassy fired, and ’lonte going in a potential trade, it would only leave rondo to play the point. Or would we see Tony Allen/Allan ray sharing the 2nd pg position

God help the Celtics if Alan Ray or Tony Allen has to play the point.

As for the statement that Pierce is as good as Wade, well, no, he isn’t. But Pierce, Jefferson and Shaq would definitely be a playoff team. Shaq may be on his last legs, but he’s still 7-1, 345 and a pretty good passer. West would average 20 ppg with Shaq in the post.

The question is whether or not Miami is ready for a complete rebuild around Wade. After their ignominious exit from the playoffs, they may be. This deal would allow them to get Mike Conley in the draft, and they need a pg badly. Plus, they would be far enough under the cap in July of 2009 to go after any major free agent that might be available.

Great provocative analysis has resulted in some way-out-there ideas. Is there a full moon tonight? As for trading Wally, we’re only going to get back someone else’s bad deal. He’s overpaid but he has grit, a shot and a good attitude. Keeping Ratliff makes sense. If he plays, he will help. If he doesn’t insurance kicks in. Brendan Haywood! You’ve got to be kidding me. Shaq! I love him and I love AI too but the dowslope of a career can get very steep very fast. Memphis as a good defensive team! Brick was right (I can’t believe I said that!) The only stat that counts is wins.

Brick,

You just have a pathological hatred of Pierce. May guess is that you develop the same hatred for Wade if he played in Boston. Noen of the stats back you up on your contention that Wade is better than Pierce.
G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG
75 75 38.6 .495 .171 .783 1.4 4.3 5.7 6.7 2.0 0.8 3.57 2.90 27.2
79 79 39.0 .471 .354 .772 1.0 5.7 6.7 4.7 1.4 0.4 3.46 2.80 26.8

I will throw out 06-07 because they were both hurt. If you look at 05-06, they are almost the same player. The difference being Wade was on a better team and didn’t have to carry his team like Pierce did. I just don’t see any compelling reason to take Wade over Pierce other than Wade’s age.

Get West, Green, Telfair, Gomes and Ratliff out of here via trade. Go HARD after Corey Maggette this offseason, as the Clips failed to make the playoffs and he doesn’t get along with Coach Dunleavy out there.

eww…yuck on brenda haywood…

below to buy a limited edition Brandon Roy Rookie of the
Year t-shirt, only $12!
http://66.178.131.20/clicks.asp?a=2507&b=2253629&c=41620072&d=13709&ID=2844

VT Bill said:
    We’d be better off trying to get Gadzurich or Joe Smith, someone that has energy.
With the development of Jefferson and Rondo, and the maturation of the others, this team is not the 23 victory team that played last season. With good health and no additions, this team can compete with Toronto, and could win 40 games.

Glad to see the bar is set so high for the 07-08 C’s :-\

No way this team untouched wins 40. We currently have ONE PG, and no real Center to speak of. Oden could change that, but if we don’t land the first overall, then I’d much rather have Haywood or Etan Thomas than Perk as our starting Center.

Pathological hatrred? Pierce is one of my favorite players. But Pierce never took over a playoff series the way Wade did last year. And Wade is much younger.

And let’s talk about defense, not just offensive stats. Pierce plays very good defense when he wants to. Wade plays excellent defense consistently, and was among the league leaders in steals per game.

If we land at #3-#5 the following trade ideas:

Wally, Scal and the pick for Kurt Thomas, Diaw and Atlanta’s pick plus one or two of Phoenix 1st rounders…..

Wally, the pick for Kurt Thomas, Barbosa and Atlanta pick, Phoenix picks…….

Wally, the pick for Chris Wilcox, Danny Fortson (draft night trade)

If Wally can get moved (big question) I think we will only get half savings back in the deal. But that may be enuff to make it work for us payroll wise going forward.

You’re missing one key ingrediant in the thought process of ownership..while they may not want to take on luxury tax dollars until they have a contender, they are well aware of the fact that Theo’s expiring deal may be the only piece they have that can net them the typ e of impact player they need to truly build a winner..

If that is their determination then they will not balk at paying one year’s worth of luxury tax money if the alternative is not being able to obtain an impact player down the road…

Phoenix wants Wally as much as we want Marcus Banks.

No, Phoenix wants Wally as much as we want Doc to be our Coach.

Phoenix doesn’t want Wally.

My biggest problem with your salary scenario is Gomes.

Gomes is a nice player, but he is not someone you invest $5M in. You let some other team overpay him and replace him with a cheaper player.

JohnKC said:

"You have Gomes and West pegged in at $5 million a year. Are those two guys really MLE players? I don’t think so. West is a tweener who can’t go to his left and Gomes is a tweener forward who can’t be a full time starter. They are both decent players, but I think it would be foolish to give either of them $5 million a year. "

Delonte West is a lefty…maybe he can’t go to his right? I like to call West a combo-guard and Gomes a combo-foward. There’s nothing wrong with versatility. I still don’t think Gomes or West are worth 5 million a year though.

Little D, I agree. Just throwing it out there as possible thought process by management. Insert other teams into the mix instead of Phoenix. There may be one team out there (Knicks?) that would take Wally and our pick and give us back solid enuff talent with some payroll savings.

I, personally, could live with Wally for 2 more years and either increase the value we get back by trading the pick or just make the pick ourselves and select a pretty talented kid out of the draft. We may have to wait a couple of years for development but a Jefferson, Rondo, either Wright core going forward wouldn’t be bad at all.

I like the idea of moving him.

celty86
Actually, like you said, moving him for the right commodities (what that is I’m not sure) or just let his contract play out.

Szczrbiak had a $775,000 trade kicker. He is due 12.775M and 13.775M in the follwoing two seasons.

Scalabrine’s salary figure is also incorrect, as he is due $3,413,793 as per his five year, fifteen million dollar contract.

In addition, Pierce’s contract is still unknown, as it will likely be 35% of the ‘07-’08 cap figure which is to be released in July.

Lastly, it is doubtful that the Celtics exceed the luxury tax next season, which means that the Celtics are counting on insurance to pay a portion of Ratliff’s contract. If the Celtics do not receive a top two selection, I would expect them trying to package it with Szczerbiak to a team like Charlotte.

http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/276/celticsnbayg3.png

20M per year for pierce is too much. trade him and theo. then look at the numbers…