Tommy On The Draft

When discussing the top two picks in the draft, Tommy spoke very favorably about Durant yet seemed to defer the choice to Oden at #1 (because Red would have done this, as in Red drafting Bill Russel). What concerns me about the rationale of taking this “RED” approach is the PRESUMPTION that Oden is the “second-coming” of Bill Russel.

Oden remains a shell of Bill Russel at draft day. Bill Russel had the advantage of playing in college longer and was a more refined defensive presence than Oden. While Oden has somewhat similar athleticisn and height, it’s the INTANGIBLES that made Russel so great. Picking Oden over Durant could be similar to drafting Michael Jordan 3rd, overlooking another great player (in Durant) because of apparent NEED for height and athleticism in the paint).

Draft “pundits” seem to dream of UNLIMITED potential in raw players and capitulate to favoring need over demonstrated talent. Oden may be the savior but I prefer to be “lucky” on draft day (as the Celtic’s once were when FORCED to take Bob Cousy) and if we’re forced to take Durant, it could be the better choice as history will record. Ralph Sampson was a “can’t-miss” talent that never lived up to expectations.

Recall that drafting Bill Russel was a major stroke of genius but drafting Russel, while brilliant, also included getting two other All Stars in Tommy Heinsohn and K. C. Jones (in the same draft). We could have “similar” luck with our first and second round selections due to the quality of this draft. D r e a m i n g !@

Well, the guy that went first in 1984 draft when Jordan was drafted 3rd, was Hakeem Olajuwon…we know one thing, Oden is no Sam Bowie, who was drafted 2nd that year. Olajuwon (Oden)or Jordan (Durant) I will be happy with either…

But I agree. I think we need defensive presence of Oden more than Durant`s offense. Just give me a top 2 pick and I will be forever grateful…

BTW, I was really impressed with Tommy in that interview…

I was very impressed with Tommy’s last comment in the segment where he believes that the young kids will be pushing the Veterans next season and vice versa.

If anything that is a very valid point, considering the playing time that Jefferson, Rondo, West, Green, and company played this season and having to go up against Pierce and Wally along with the top pick in the draft vying for playing time.

I’m hoping this will push everyone beginning next season fighting for playing time.

Experienced playing time is vital in performance, this past season the growing pains took us to the edge in many ways with these kids, and probably will.

Oden is no Russell. But maybe he becomes Nate Thurmond, and that’s good enough.

So why isn’t Heinsohn coaching this team?

there never will be another russell- one of a kind. we need defense more than offense, hence oden. we also have clifford to tutor oden on the finer points. our problem is that we do not have a defense-minded coach. we have a pr-minded coach, and need someone with a kind of red on roundball grit.

Still hoping that Oden proves to have the necessary “intangibles” that make for greatness. At this stage, Durant seems to have a higher basketball IQ but considering that these are both COLLEGE kids, the “smarts” should be there.

Tommy is saying to pick the best player available and not to draft for position, I haven’t seen Oden or Durant play, but the consensus seems to be that Durant is the better player. He also talks about the intangibles which seems to be the hardest thing to factor in. When Red drafted Bird he said he thought Bird would be a good player, but never expected him to be as good as he was. He explained that when he drafted him he never realized what was inside. With our history we will probably end up with neither, but that could be a blessing in disquise if, as moskqq said above, we get lucky.

thebirdman is right. Just get the #1 or #2. Wasting anxiety over Oden vs Durant can come after the ping pong ball drop. Hearing ourself get “the number four pick goes to” after watching this year’s train wreck is going to kill me. Watching the Spurs/Suns yesterday killed me knowing how far from those teams we are.

Tommy is such a homer, I love him. He’ll be agreat leprechan at the Draft. But he’s been way too busy broadcasting to have insight into the draft and he said as much. Both Durant and Oden have the ability to be great, its whats inside that counts.
   It is an complete waste of significance, but I did the ESPN draft simulaor 20 times and never got the #1 pick. What a bummer!!! Lots of 3’s and 4’s.

The most likely pick is #4 (31%).

Tommy’s the right guy to be there because we need a little Celtics Mystique to go to work here. The guy won 9 titles in 10 seasons plus 2 more as a coach. If anyone’s going to pull out 1 or 2 it’s going to be Tommy….

Brick it is not that simple. Those percentages are contingen upon what happens with other teams. I disagree with the calculations. The Celtics have a 55.8% chance of getting a top three pick. If they do not get a top three pick, they will be at either four or five depending upon whether Memphis gets a top three pick. If Memphis is in the top 3, then the Celtics are 4.If not, the Celtics are 5. The Celtics have a 44.2% of getting either the four or five pick. Since Memphis has a 64.3% chance of being in the top 3, that means that the Celtics should get the number 4 pick 64.3% of the time that they are not in the top three. Meaning that they should get the 4th pick about 28.4 percent of the time (their 44.2% chance of being four or five discounted by the 64.3% chance that Memphis will be in the top three).

This stuff is really confusing and I think some of the websites are flat out wrong.

That would also mean they have a 15.8% chance at number 5, which is different than what the websites say.

Tommy is kind of full of it.

Yes I userstand the contingencies, but let’s say that Stern is counting down on May 22 and reaches for the envelope for pick #5. What are the odds for picks 5-4-3-2-1 at that point in time? Obviously if some other team gets pick #5, the probability that the Celtics will get that pick goes immediately to zero and the odds on picks 1-4 change.

In your post you imply that if Memphis gets a top 3 pick, the Celtics can’t get #1 or #2. I do not believe that is correct.

Brick,

They only draq for the top three picks. You can’t draw for the fourth pick and beyond. After the top three picks, the other teams pick in reverse order of record. Since Boston, has the second worst record, they can get no worse than the 5th pick. This would occur is neither Memphis nor Boston were in the top three.

The Celtics have a 55.8% of one of thier assigned numbers coming up as a top three pick. If that happens, they get that pick. If That means that they have a 44.2% chance getting either the four or the five pick, since if they are not in the top three they have to get one of those picks. The only way the Celtics pick number 5 is if both Boston and Memphis do not pick in the top three. We know that Boston has a 44.2% chance of not picking in the top three. Memphis has a 64.3% chance of getting a top pick. That means that 64.3% of the time Memphis will be in the top three and Boston, if it is not in the top three will pick 4. So of the 44.2% of the time that Boston picks either 4 or 5, 64.3% of that 44.2% of the time, Memphis will have a top three pick and Boston will pick number 4. The rest of the time Memphis won’t have a top three pick either and Boston will pick 5. So, 64.2% of 44.2% is about 28.4% of the time the Celtics will have the number 4 pick and 15.8% of the time they should have a number 5 pick. I don’t see any other way to calculate it.

Well, that makes sense. So if Memphis is in the top 3, Boston is assured of #4.

“Well, that makes sense. So if Memphis is in the top 3, Boston is assured of #4.”

That is what I think it is. But my numbers don’t match up with what is on the net. I can’t figure out why.

What a dream it would be for us to draft Durant, Doc steps aside, and Tommy steps in. Would be an awesome experiment for at least one season, too bad Tommy probably is too old.

This reminds me of an old friend who used to say “the square root of f*** all, is still f*** all”. I do agree with Tommy as our man.

For those of you how think that Tommy would be a defence minded coach I think that you may be missing with Tommy; he hasn’t been tauting defence on his TV broadcasts; he believes in offence first.

Of course, he has been too old for a while to coach but if he wasn’t I don’t think he would be the coach the defence minded contributors to this blog would want.

4thgenfan, you’re right, they called him Tommy Gun for a reason.

The numbers that really count are that Boston has the second best chance of getting a top pick, no matter the percentages.