Nice summary that certainly addresses the the problems associated with gutting a team’s promising youth/high lottery pick for an established heavy-weight facing the downside of his career.

Nice rundown.

In regard to getting KG and Lewis, how is anyone supposed to bank on the idea of both of them agreeing to new deals with the Celtics before July 1st at the earliest.

The only way I do this deal for KG is if we keep AJ. Give them whatever they want outside of AJ, PP, and RR. outside of that, way too much of a risk.

failed to mention,

I want to fleece someone in a trade, I’m tired of the being the ones getting fleeced.

you don’t trade AL…PERIOD…the guys a beast and his skills are unique…and he’s a baby,a worker,improving daily…

I like the analysis of the long-term implications. Thanks!

great post, Eric. i started writing something similar this morning, vis-a-vis Boston’s inability to include Al AND the 5th pick, especially considering PHX cannot put together an attractive package without Amare (Marion would almost certainly opt out after this year if in Minny), which i seriously doubt they will be willing to do. Even with a delicate knee, who trades a guy hat young who is that good for a veteran who has proven he can’t carry a team by himself? A package of Green, Gomes, Telfair, Theo or Wally, and 2 or 3 picks would almost certainly get it done. Because the Cs own Minny’s 2010 pick, they have more flexibility than usual to trade first round picks… say this years 1st, Minny’s 1st and a 2nd or two.

phoenix has better chips. 2 first round picks this year and Atlanta’s #1 next year. Marion or Amare.

Maybe we can get Oden now that the Portland fans are freaked out over all his medical issues (wrist, disk, one leg longer, etc).

Interesting analysis. You know, I’m pretty sure Pierce and Garnett will be happy to resign for a lot less money. And no doubt, Minnesota’s plenty eager to take back Sczcerbiak and his hefty contract.
And maybe Seattle will even trade us the number 2 pick for the 5 pick, just to get Telfair back.

I think it’s a joke to think that both Pierce and KG will be anything more than deadweight after 2-3 years. They’ll have all-world salaries for 2nd rate play. KG has been at or near the highest salary in the NBA for several years. When he re-ups, he won’t accept anything less than more of the same.

I don’t see that this move wins us the East by any stretch. Chicago – depending on what they do – will have a much more talented and younger team.

We’d basically be trading our future for a few years of respectibility, followed by a fast descent into the toilet.

a great post. i like kg a whole lot better than iverson and i am so glad we held back on that trade. big al was the iverson chip and look how he has shined after the trade. he also wants to be here and will raise in status and maybe attract free agents. if we do give up al for kg, we absolutely have to hold onto #5. i still would rather go after ak47, who is already what we want yi to become.

Even if Garnett is in tip top shape he’ll opt out at the end of next year (or threaten to do so and force a sign and trade). And the luxury tax implications of signing him (and resigning him) are enormous.

As for Pierce, he played at half speed when he came back from his stress fracture. I’m seriously worried about a major decline, KG or no KG.

Also, you have nearly 40 million wrapped up in two players. What happens if one of them gets hurt? Where do they find the money to maintain a decent supporting cast without a huge luxury tax bill?

Eric, you’re dreaming. Like many of the Boston media types, I fear that you would prefer the national exposure that a KG trade would bring over actually building a consistent contender. Your article is completely unconvincing.

How about going after Ron Artest and keeping the #5 pick?

What makes everyone think we will have PP around if we dont trade for KG?

PP wants to win just like everyone else.

If he sees we have a chance to land KG he isnt going to be happy if we dont do it. just like KG wasnt happy when minnesota didnt get A.I. and Kobe isnt happy that the Lakers havent gotten anyone.

I wouldnt be surprised at all if PP demands a trade after the celtics dont get PP

 And then i hope PP lands in Minnesota..

If Al’s involved, no.

I’d rather trade the pick and somebody else. Hell I’d include a future pick unprotected if it kept Al out of the deal. Like Eric said, you need to have a young star to bridge the gap. Why go “find one” when we already have one in Al?

We need to make this deal without giving up Al. If Al’s gone, many Celtics fans around the year 2010, will want Ainge’s head once KG’s out of his prime and Al’s averaging 25/10 in Minnesota.

An execellent thought provoking summary. I agree that the Celtics need the #5 pick or keep Al Jeff, and I prefer Big Al to what we might get at the #5. If we keep him and resign Garnett to a new 3year deal, then I would let Pierce age out of his contract and not resign him. I think he will lose productivity faster than Garnett. Garnett has plenty of mileage left on his tires, provided he does not have to play big minutes. That’s why keeping Big Al and Perk are key, plus finding another banger who can come in and give hard minutes off the bench.

The danger of this trade is that the Celtics could start to look like they did in the late 80s. The team dominated the regular season, were absolutely unstoppable when healthy, but when the playoffs hit, McHale was limping, Chief was tired, Bird looked nailed to the floor and DJ was backing his way up the court. They still might scratch their way into the finals, but ran out of steam due to age.

The KG trade could work, but we can’t give up all the “yutes” to go forward.

Trading everything for KG would be such a terrible move. We’d get 2002 all over again, and then another 5 years of mediocre to terrible play.

Great analysis Eric. You don’t seem to come to a conclusion as to whether or not you would make the deal proposed in the rumors. Would you do it? As far as I’m concerned Al Jeff is the deal breaker. Adding KG to the present team would be nice, but giving Al away defeats the purpose, to make the team a contender. I’d be willing to chance giving away the #5 if we get Minnys draft pick in return. All this is premised on KG only being here 2 years. It’s better if we can be assured he’ll be here longer. But, I have a hunch we can get two good players in this draft. Trading Al destroys everything. And with all the complications of KG’s remaining here I would just as soon forget about this deal and move on. I’m hoping that some of the players on our current roster will grow into the needed roles you suggest and if we can get a quality FA that would be a better way to go. Sean Grande and Dickerson are in favor of this deal and that scares me abit. I think the people in favor of this deal take the stance that we have a 2 or 3 year window based on PP. I think that’s clouding our judgment.

Maybe Pierce and Garnett will be big contributors until they’re pushing 40. But I canâ€â"¢t accept on faith your estimates of productivity, years left in their careers, minutes per game they can play, etc… without stats that show whether and how significantly production tails off as players age. I’m not saying you’re wrong necessarily, but on what do you base your assumptions?

An interesting thing you hint at is the question of value. At this point in their careers, KG is certainly a more valuable and productive player than Al. For God’s sake, his numbers are comparable with Larry Bird’s! But KG’s performance and market value have peaked. At 31 years old and $20M/year, the best case scenario is that he will be as good as he has been in the past. It’s much more likely, however, that his performance will decline as he gets older. You’ll be tying up nearly a third of your cap in one guy and you will likely NEVER be able to trade him for anything like fair value in return. Al, on the other hand, will likely continue to outstrip his market value as he reaches his peak playing years. Bottom line: You’d be trading an undervalued growth stock for an overvalued blue-chip. This is not a strategy for long-term success.

The last thing you do touch on is the problem of a supporting cast. This year the cap will be $55M according to NBA draft.net. The Celts $62M payroll is already $7M over the cap, an astounding number when you think of how young the team is and how poorly it’s performed. KG and Pierce would eat up $38M or 61% of the payroll this year. Throw in Wally (UGH) and you’re talking about $50M or 80% on three guys. Doesn’t leave you much room to go out and improve your supporting cast or even replace all the guys you traded. And next year would be worse if KG picks up his option. Pierce or Garnett goes down for any amount of time, and the wheels come off the bus.

I don’t expect Danny to actually do this, but I think the sensible thing is to play to his one strength: draft picks. Draft wisely at 5. Maybe trade Gerald Green and see if you can pick up a pick or two in the late first round, where Ainge has been able to find some value. At the end of this year, use Theo’s cap space to lock up Jefferson. Then let Wally’s deal MERCIFULLY expire next year and see if you can go after an impact veteran.

It’s taken four years for Wyc, Ainge, and Doc to screw the team up this bad. Going to take four more probably—and some new coaching/management—to undo the damage.

Wycsend, just a comment on your statement about the current relative values of KG vs Al Jeff. You are basing your statement on statistics and statistically I can’t argue with you. First of all, I’m not a KG fan and I love Al Jeff so I am naturally biased. To me KG is a big who plays mostly on the perimeter. He also shows a tendency not to want to take the big shot. There are other players who can serve this purpose. Al is a legitimate low post offensive players with unique skills. As he gets better and the defense gives him more attention Al has quickly adjusted. First they were going for his fakes, then they weren’t. Al quickly adjusted to this tactical move. Simply, to me, AJ is a better low post player who is just going to get better and better. I’d rather have him as part of my core than KG. Forgetting all the financial garbage, KG with AJ would be great, but KG at the cost of AJ stinks. I would provide the handcuffs for Al to attach himself to the Waltham facility if he is even being considered in a trade.

Eric, I like your effort: you’re trying to mesh the short term vision (get KG and win now) and the mid term vision (trade PP, rebuild). It’s wise and similar to what good GM and owners generally do (fans are always radical. But I’ve some problems with your analysis:

“This tandem should instantly put the Celtics in contention for the ECF…”
Det and CHI have good and established both offensive and defensive systems, Cle can defend in the East. Everybody here seems to remember when Mia got Shaq and many think we should go the same way: but, and it’s a big BUT, Mia didn’t have just Shaq and Wade and veterans: they had someone named Pat Riley. Riley coaching PP/KG and Doc coaching PP/KG are two different worlds…

“Rajon Rondo, Leon Powe, and Kendrick Perkins are all very reliable DEFENSIVE rotation players, as is Allen, so team defense should pick up substantially…”

yes, I agree, but one on one and in the regular season when defense means little or nothing. We don’t know how good they could be in the playoffs and less more we know if they can execute the defensive system that a championship caliber team needs.

 “The team HAS to keep either the pick or Jefferson”
Maybe we could keep the pick, no way AJ

At the end of the day here’s my opinion: I don’t like and I don’t dislike the KG trade. I don’t think it’s that one big decision. To me, anyway, it would be just a sideways move. In the next 2/3 we aren’t going to win it all with KG, we aren’t going to win it all without him. Pick your poison

I’d like to get KG but I would not part with Jefferson.

Brick, I am going to start calling you Captain Negative. Hah hah. Seriously though, have you talked with Garnett? Why are you so insistent he’d leave? Maybe not if he and PP are meshing and contending. It’s been a while since he’s been on a contender. He’s also the typ eof guy I could see coming in and instantly feeling Celtic Pride. The kind of guy who’ll stare up at the rafters every night and say “I’m helping get the next one”.
Also, yu talk about luxury taxes. Why are we as fans worried about tax? That’s Wyc’s issue…and he’s said before that if we are competing for a championship, he’ll gladly pay it.
Then again, you’re the same guy who’s convinced taht Tiago Splitter is the guy who’ll save the team. LOL.

Let me say this first: I LIKE AL JEFFERSON.

Okay, now let me say this: We are completely overrating this guy. 25 and 10! For a season, maybe. For a career? Not a chance. Take a look at these numbers and ask yourself very seriously, where does Al belong on this list of Power Forwards?

ALL-TIME GREATS – Career Avg.
Bob Pettit – 26/16
Karl Malone – 25/10
*Larry Bird – 24/10 (really a SF)
Charles Barkley – 22/12
Moses Malone – 20/12
Willis Reed – 18/13 (played on a stacked team)
Kevin McHale – 18/7 (6th man, stacked team)

CURRENT OLDER PLAYERS (years in the league) – Career Ave.
Kevin Garnett (12) – 20/11
Tim Duncan (10) – 22/12
*Dirk Nowitzki (9) – 22/9 (same as Bird)
Elton Brand (8) – 20/10

CURRENT YOUNGER PLAYERS (yrs in league) – Career avg. (last year’s #)
Zach Randolph (6) – 16/8 (24/12)
Amare Stoudamire (5) – 20/9 (25/12)
Carlos Boozer (5) – 16/10 (24/12)
Chris Bosh (4) – 18/9 (23/11)
Dwight Howard (3) – 15/12 (18/12)
Al Jefferson (3) – 10/7 (16/11)

There is a reason why 20 and 10 is such a benchmark number. Those who achieve it over a career are the ALL TIME GREATS. Al is avery nice player who may end up averaging a respectable 16-18 and 10 for the rest of his career. If he did, I’d be thrilled. But, he is not an all-time great. He won’t even be the best of his era. We have a chance to acquire an all-time great. I’m not that worried about the cap. Filling in the roster with late round picks (just like San Antonio has done) is Danny’s specialty. It’s the one thing we know he knows how to do. With PP and KG together those players will finally be able to play their proper roles as opposed to starting, which will make them look alot better. And I agree with the article that both KG and PP have far more than 2 years in them. Trading PP and going young is not a bad option – it’s prudent, safe, and has more long-term viability. Acquiring KG is a dangerous option – risky, short-term, drastic. BUT (and this is what is supposed to matter) option 1 doesn’t give you a sniff of the playoffs for years to come, while option 2 gives you a legitimate chance at a CHAMPIONSHIP for at least 3 years. This is the kind of gamble that a team bent on a title should take)

Well I’m negative for a reason.

As for Splitter, he’s the most NBA-ready big man in this draft, and he’s the same age as Al Jefferson. When he gets into the league (proably a year from now) you will all see that he can really play. He’s going to be an absolute steal for some team drafting from 12-25.

minnesota gets kobe and jermaine oneal
pacers get ricky and blount
lakers get huddy hassel and jaric

minnesota wins championships for years to come with foye kobe jermaine KG J howard mccants smith madsen bracey wright and their pick..

boston dont have a chance so lets stop talking about the trade

…and one more thing to consider..

The one thing that worries me about KG is his lack of free-throws when the game is on the line. You can say all the accolades you want about KG, but the lack of free-throw shooting on his part is a major flaw on his game.

Brickowski, this is the last time I post something about Splitter. How many times have you seen him? I’ve seen Splitter almost every week in the last 3 years. Those who say he can be Varejao 2.0 are right, but Varejao in Europe was a much better player and this says a lot. Splitter can be a solid role player and nothing more. Of course, maybe I’m a bad evaluator: I started watching basketball (euro and Nba) when Nate Archibald was my favourite player (that’s why I’m a Celtics fan); so maybe I understand something about basketball, maybe not. Time will tell.

. “Andrew Bynum? What the f—-?” Bryant says in disgust. “Are you kidding me? Andrew Bynum? F—-ing ship his ass out. Are you kidding me? We’re talking about Jason Kidd. But they didn’t even want to do that. Now we’re here in this f—-ed up position.”

 Substitute Andrew Bynum with AL Jefferson
substitute Bryant with Pierce
and substitute Jason Kidd with Kevin Garnett

 anybody get the point??
paints a pretty clear picture!

3-8 years I think it is more like 3 or 4 with declining skills. Plus will we be able to get a good third option when 2 guys take up 2/3 of the cap.

Something I’ve noticed about this blog. Some of the posters try to pass themselves off as having inside knowledge about what players and/or GMs are THINKING.

Posting an assessment of or opinion about someone’s basketball skills is helpful, informative, etc.

Claiming to have some insight as to whether or not a player will resign, demand a trade, etc., is just silly and useless. Unless you are that players best friend, brother, wife or agent, you’re purely blowing smoke if you claim to know what a player will do when his contract is up.

eurofan, I’ve seen Splitter about 10-12 times over the past two years.

Splitter is a better defender than Varejao. In fact, he is the second best big defender in this draft (after Oden).

You have to watch Splitter with the Brazilian national team, not just with Tau Ceramica. He does not have a chance to showcase his offensive skills with Tau.

Brick, I watched Splitter with both the brazialian team and Tau. I could say that if there’s an european team where a player can showcase his offensive skills (if he has some) that’s Tau. But I don’t want to go on. If you have seen Splitter at least 10 times of course your opinion has some soundness and I respect it. Mine is just different. Peace

I like Splitter a lot for his defensive ability and his heady play…he’s got a nice hook shot and is pretty good at getting it off in the paint…he needs to be more aggressive with his finishes and power some things through more often, but his ability to get off a shot in the paint is very good…Splitter’s jump shot needs to become a weapon for him…I think it can be in time, but he barely ever shoots it for Tau (by design) and shows very little confidence in it…his release is inconsistent, but repetition and coaching could fix that…I love Splitter’s energy and I think he’s more skilled, controlled, than Varejeo…good offensive rebounder, average defensive rebounder…he’s a lotto talent for sure, but i’m not sure he’s a star…high-quality starter like PJ Brown was in his prime…12-15ppg 7-9 rebounds depending on role…I’d think that’s his range…he certainly tailed off for much of this year, but really turned it on in the Euroleague…the back injury had something to do with this, but I also think he is growing tired of being stuck on Tau when he’s wanted to come over to the NBA for the past 2 seasons…

By far the most important factor here is that KG would probably opt out of Boston after one year, and that is missing from this analysis.

BillfromBoston said:

“i’m not sure he’s a star…high-quality starter like PJ Brown was in his prime…12-15ppg 7-9 rebounds depending on role…I’d think that’s his range…”

Yes, I think that’s probably right, and I would expect roughly the same from a player like Horford, except that Horford will go 10 slots higher and won’t defend on the ball nearly as well as Splitter or have Splitter’s veteran saavy.

I agree…I do think Horford is a better rebounder and shot blocker though..still, i’d highly be in favor of acquiring another pick to land him if the team doesn’t fill their big man needs in another way…

Shawn Marion to the Celtics,
Garnett to the Suns
Telfair, the #5, #24 and cap filler (can someone explain that to me?) to Minnesota

thats the newest proposal

Minnesota also takes back the 1st round pick they sent to Boston last year.
 

To have a great basketball team you need a player to have defensive, offensive abilities and be able to create opportunities instantly on either side of the ball Splitter gives that, with Durant, Oden, Connelly, Brewer, Green and a few others. KG is a great player one of the best ever but very few players can play at high level past 32. They have been playing so much and over using their bodies age and wear and tear take over. Players peak at 22-32 except if your Lebron.

Oh laugh, mon, laugh. My posts are not worth the tears. Save your tears for the Celtics.

go sox—-I really don’t get it. I guess you’re referring to Kobe’s latest rant (which I haven’t heard and don’t care too), but don’t see how it involves PP and Big Al.

Look I’m sure without Al the deal doesn’t get done but I would do the deal if we could keep the #5 (and take Brewer who will be a freakish lock down defender in a short period of time). A future #1 and maybe Gomes (who I like) in place of the 5 and I do the deal.

Sobering thought: I’m not saying Jefferson will ever be the player KG is/was but think about this, when KG turns 35 Big Al will be turning only 26 years old! You would then have to ask yourself the question. Will the Celtics be able to add #17 during the next 4 years? If the answer is probably not then I say stay the course and keep building especially if you also have to give up the 5th pick. Maybe another opportunity will open itself up at the trade deadline this year.