Is Ainge a Good Judge of Talent?
by Jeff Clark on Jun 8, 2007 3:00 AM EDT
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There is a common perception that Danny Ainge is great at drafting and judging talent. On the other hand, you could make the case that Sebastian Telfair hasn’t helped his reputation much. I thought it might be instructive to look back and review Danny’s track record of judging talent through the years.
Of course I’ll look at who he actually drafted in relation to the guys he passed on. But I also want to look at "Danny guys." This is a term used by many Celtics fans to describe players (like Robert Swift) that Danny Ainge is apparently enamored with or linked to in some way. Ainge seems to be very forthcoming about players that he likes and has been known to give draft promises and request that players pull out of workouts with other teams (hoping they would be available where he’s drafting).
So here is detailed look at the year to year draft results, rumors, and stories about Danny Ainge and the draft. (click read more to see the rest)
2002: Ainge wasn’t with any team at this point, but was working as an analyst. He posted a mock draft on NBA.com that revealed some of his insight into that draft.
On one hand, his comment at the bottom of the page was nearly prophetic, calling Amare Stoudemire the sleeper of the draft: "He could be the best player of the draft when all is said and done in their NBA careers." At the time, that was a bold statement because Stoudemire was just a raw high school kid with lots of athletic ability. Now he’s right up there with Yao Ming as the prizes of that class.
On the other hand, Ainge also praised some players that didn’t exactly turn out to be winners: "This is one of the strangest drafts," Ainge says. "The middle of the draft is pretty strong. (Jiri) Welsch, (Kareem) Rush, (Melvin) Ely, (Jared) Jeffries, (Dan) Dickau and (Juan) Dixon could all be good impact players right away." Ainge would later bring both Welsch and Dickau to the Celtics (even calling Welsch the key to the first Walker trade) but neither panned out. Of the group mentioned, Jared Jeffries may have had the best career to date and he is not much more than a defensive specialist.
2003: Having only a couple of months on the job, Danny made up his mind quickly on who he was going to draft. In fact, I remember reading Chad Ford’s report that Ainge would be drafting Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins with the 16th and 20th picks. It turned out that Banks was coveted by the Magic at pick 15, so Ainge swung a deal with Memphis to move up to the 13th pick for Banks and down to the 27th pick to get Perkins (which is closer to where he was being slotted at the time). Bottom line, Ainge got his guys.
As it turns out, Banks had all the talent to be a top point guard, but was never able to put it all together. While he’s shown brief periods of brilliance, he’s mostly been inconsistent and hasn’t fit well with any of his coaches. There wasn’t a lot in that draft, but it should be noted that Ainge passed on players like Boris Diaw, Josh Howard, and Luke Walton (and so did a lot of other GMs). One last note, in recent years we’ve heard often that Ainge is a big fan of Travis Outlaw, who has shown some progress but hasn’t put it all together yet.
2004: This is where the fun really started for Danny Ainge. For one thing, there were some rumors that Ainge might be willing to give up Pierce to the Bulls for Tyson Chandler and the 3rd pick, where it was reported that he liked Ben Gordon and Shaun Livingston. When that didn’t work out, rumors of promises ran rampant. Ainge had 3 picks in the first round and he was doing his best to get the guys he liked the best to slip to those spots. The list of Ainge guys that might be available at the 15th pick included Robert Swift, Sebastian Telfair, and Al Jefferson. Nobody can be sure who Ainge would have taken had all three been available, but in this case it looks like it is sometimes better to be lucky than good.
Regarding Telfair, the Trail Blazers were hoping he would fall to them at the 23rd pick. However, when they found out how much Ainge liked Sebastian, they decided to use the 13th pick on him instead. We all know how that worked out in the end. Reportedly Ainge is still trying to get a hold of Robert Swift (who hasn’t been healthy long enough to really show what he’s got).
Ainge also picked up Delonte West and Tony Allen ahead of Kevin Martin. Both have had up and down success in Boston, struggling with injuries for long stretches at a time. Ainge also picked up Justin Reed in the 2nd round (passing on Trevor Ariza).
2005: Another interesting year where Ainge was hoping to deal Pierce for a top pick that he would have used on Chris Paul. That never materialized and instead Ainge watched Gerald Green slide all the way down to him at 18 (he was being projected by many to be a top 5 pick). Shortly after the draft, it was reported that the Celtics were relieved that the Raptors picked Joey Graham because that meant they were sure to get either Green or Danny Granger. Aside from Hakim Warrick (another project athlete) and Jarret Jack (a decent point guard), there don’t seem to be many prizes that he passed on to pick Gerald. Ainge also reportedly liked Yaroslov Koralev, but he was gone by the 18th pick.
The real fun in this draft happened in the second round. Ainge told people after the draft that they had considered Ryan Gomes at the 18th spot in the first round, but when he slipped to the second round, the Celtics happily picked him up.
In addition, Orien Greene was reportedly given a promise that the Celtics would select him in with one of the two 2nd round picks. That wouldn’t have been a problem except that another player Ainge liked a lot, Amir Johnson, had also slipped to the 53rd pick. Reportedly Ainge tried hard to get out of the promise, perhaps offering to give him a contract as an undrafted free agent, but the agent and player held him to his promise. Ainge selected Greene and the Pistons nabbed Johnson shortly after. Greene didn’t last very long and Amir has started showing signs of a potential breakout year.
Ainge also was linked to Monta Ellis and Roko Ukic, but neither was available by the time the Celts 2nd round picks came up.
2006: The players that were projected to be available at the 7th pick (Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Rudy Gay) all seemed to duplicate the Celtics deepest position (at the time), so Ainge decided to shed a ton of future salary and pick up Sebastian Telfair for the pick. But that didn’t stop him from getting involved in the draft.
Once again, Chad Ford let us know well in advance how much Danny liked Rajon Rondo. In fact, it seems Ainge might have even selected Rondo with the 7th pick had he not traded the pick away. As Rondo slipped in the draft, Ainge saw an opportunity to pick him up for a late round future pick and made the deal to get him to Boston. Marcus Williams was selected with the next pick by the Nets (and the Knicks fans were still grumbling over the Balkman pick). Point guard’s picked later included Sergio Rodriguez and Daniel Gibson. Both of whom have shown real signs of a bright future.
Ainge also traded into the second round to pick up the undersized but scrappy Leon Powe and picked up Allan Ray as an undrafted free agent.
2007: Of course this year’s draft is still weeks away, and all we have to go on is rumor and quotes, but there are some things we can deduct. First of all, the worst kept secret in the draft is how much Ainge is in love with Yi Jianlian. If Yi is available at 5, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t the pick.
More poorly kept secrets seem to indicate that Ainge really likes Corey Brewer and Al Thronton. Brewer is a possibility at the 5th pick but he plays the same position that Ainge didn’t want to draft last year. Does this interest mean he simply likes Brewer more than he liked guys like Brandon Roy last year or is there more to it? Some have even speculated that it could signal a willingness to trade Paul Pierce. Thronton had been projected to go as low as 10th or 11th, so there was speculation that Ainge may be willing to trade down. However, if Ainge likes him enough, (he said Al "might be the second best offensive prospect in the draft") you never know.
Another interesting development is the apparent lack of interest in Mike Conley Jr., who is widely considered the best point guard prospect in the draft. He’s noticeably absent from the list of prospects the Celtics are interested in (which also includes Al Horford, Jeff Green, and Brandan Wright). There is evidence that other teams may be interested in trading into that 5th spot to select Conley Jr. if he isn’t taken by the Griz or Hawks.
Only time will tell if Danny will make the right call on draft night and if he was right to favor some prospects over others.
Review:
From this list, 9 players are still on the Celtics: Perkins, Jefferson, West, Allen, Green, Gomes, Rondo, Powe, and Ray.
Only Marcus Banks, Justin Reed, and Orien Greene have left the team after being drafted by Ainge.
The "Danny guys" that he has acquired via trade or free agency haven’t worked out so well. Welsch and Dickau are gone and soon Telfair will be too. So maybe we should be wary of Ainge looking to add guys like Outlaw, Ellis, Ukic, Koralev, and of course Robert Swift.
Also, if history is any guide, you can be sure Ainge will consider the option of dealing Pierce for a high draft pick.
I would have to say that the best thing Ainge has been able to do is find good value at the picks he’s had. Nobody is perfect, and Ainge has passed on some players that would have been better selections than the ones he ended up with. All in all, however, he has done a solid job.
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This year, I don’t want to hear before every game… “We’re going to go small tonight…”
by Big Cat on Jun 8, 2007 6:00 AM EDT reply actions
JB_Celticsstuff said:
“Could Ainge have suckered both Phoenix and Portland in 2004?
If it was luck to get left with Jefferson, it reminds me of Red getting stuck with the "local yokel’ Cousy.”
Auerbach pulled Cousy’s name out of a hat. He didn’t sucker anybody. IMHO the team that was suckered in 2004 was Seattle, and apparently Ainge is still up to it.
The key to good drafting, in retrospect, is not whether you’ve taken the BEST of the rest but whether you’ve selected players that have an NBA future.
In the upcoming draft, as in all drafts, there may be 2-3 players that a GM would like to have but his selection criterion changes from “who I like” to which player best fills a present team need. This year our two most apparent needs are SIZE and DEFENSE, hence Yi and Brewer. But one can’t help being enamored of great athleticism and great production so Al Thornton needs to be considered.
Also, one speculates whether other desireable players were hampered from demonstrating all their talent (ala Michael Jordan) by the system they played in or the specific role their coaches requested, hence Brandon Wright, Greene and Yoakim Noah all have attributes worthy of consideration.
Lastly, past performance seems to win in the end because the most elusive and desireable trait is guessing a player’s “intangibles” and it’s thought that past performance is the best indicator of future leadership.
by moskqq on Jun 8, 2007 6:24 AM EDT reply actions
danny has done as well as can be expected. his big fault is that he stays in love with his potential draftees after they have proven that they were not as ripe for the picking. i always thought he was right on jiri welsch and thought he would develop better than he did. seeing doc on fox tv last night— he seemed to be saying they are going with a project which would indicate yi if yi is there. it was the look on his face when he said he did’t want any more projects. the look seemed to say another one is coming.just my feeling.
Four drafts and everyone he’s drafted is still in the league. How many GM’s can say that?
by PistolPete on Jun 8, 2007 6:50 AM EDT reply actions
Brickowski said:
JB_Celticsstuff said:
“Could Ainge have suckered both Phoenix and Portland in 2004?
If it was luck to get left with Jefferson, it reminds me of Red getting stuck with the "local yokel’ Cousy.”
Auerbach pulled Cousy’s name out of a hat. He didn’t sucker anybody. IMHO the team that was suckered in 2004 was Seattle, and apparently Ainge is still up to it.
*
Brickowski;
I am very well aware of how Cousy landed with Boston after the dispersal of players when the Chicago Stags folded,
after Red refused to draft him: “Iâ€â"¢m supposed to win, not go after local yokels.â€Â
”http://celticsstufflive.com/featured-articles/old-point-guards-never-diepart-ii/08/2006/26/">http://celticsstufflive.com/featured-articles/old-point-guards-never-diepart-ii/08/2006/26/
My comment, “If it was luck…,”referring to Jeff’s supposition that Ainge really did like Telfair and Swift and his[/i] remark: “it’s sometimes better to be lucky than good” in the acquisition of Jefferson, runs contrary to the concept of Danny suckering anyone (my mistake it [i]was Seattle and Portland).
I was allowing for both possibilities since we’ll probably never know the truth until Ainge retires and writes his memoirs.
Hopefully, Ainge is so successful,someone will want to read those memoirs. ;D
I don’t think Doc wants Yi- Danny dragged him along to the work out to try to convince him.
by Big Cat on Jun 8, 2007 7:24 AM EDT reply actions
Yeah, Rondo is somewhat inadequate, but maybe he’ll learn to shoot. It’s happened with others. But when I look at the Celtics, I see a small team, with (at best) two quality big men. I look at the Spurs, Cavaliers, and Pistons and see at least three or four quality big men.
The Celtics need to grab the best big guy they can get this year. I’m hoping for Yi, but Noah may suffice. If Ainge can also find a promising point guard in the second round (ala Daniel Gibson), then great.
Ainge needs to be a part of a co-gm team, he is good at drafting, we may not all like every pick he made but can agree that in the most part he has gotten good players. also Jiri was traded for the pick that was traded to get Rondo, to put that into perspective. now if we just had someone else to make trades and sign free agents we could be contending for the second round of the playoffs again, although i would rather trade Pierce and rebuild all the way.
The draft is a crap shoot! other than Oden and I hope he doesn’t become the next Sam Bowie, until these kids have a chance to mature and play at a higher level, they are nothing but raw talent with promise right now.
I still have my doubts about Durant, the more I read, he reminds me of Alex English, and a poor man’s George Gervin,
We need to find a needle in the haystack with this draft. Each player brings something different to the table, and Danny has to decide who the best fit would be for this team.
In my opinion he has a solid core with Pierce and Jefferson, with Rondo, Delonte, Allen, Perkins, Szczerbiak, Green, & Gomes filling in the rotation.
We need another big man Center or Power Forward to help jump start this team. Someone who can contribute off the bench with Defense and Rebounding.
The key for this team is how well they’ll be able to grasp and play defense, otherwise forget about playoffs.
There isn’t a GM in the league who couldn’t be second guessed for a trade or passing on a particular player in the trade. As we all know hindsight is 20/20.
When it comes to the draft I have total confidence in DA’s judgement .
by DAS on Jun 8, 2007 8:16 AM EDT reply actions
If Danny ends up drafting, I feel good that we’ll get a “Player.” I’m with PP, I can’t see us getting younger, but we may have no choice if the right trade doesn’t come available.
If we are trading, I’m getting a little nervous. As DAS said, “who couldn’t be second guessed”…heck we do it to each other here every day. But, because of the position Ainge has put us in, I like our chips, with Ratliff’s contract expiring, coinciding with this deep draft, gives us plenty of options. We all understand there is the fine line between trading “the kids” too early (Billup, JJ, etc) and holding on forever. As Jeff pointed out in an earlier piece, Ainge should also be recognized as fortuitous for not having pulled some triggers (Jefferson in the Iverson deal). He’s got us out of the PITino, to here. I cheering for him to take the next step in his Vision.
by blceltsfan on Jun 8, 2007 8:31 AM EDT reply actions
“My comment, "If it was luck…,”referring to Jeff’s supposition that Ainge really did like Telfair and Swift and his remark: “it’s sometimes better to be lucky than good” in the acquisition of Jefferson, runs contrary to the concept of Danny suckering anyone (my mistake it was Seattle and Portland)."
Danny didn’t sucker anyone, as proof by the Orien Greene selection. Had the Sonics not taken Swift and instead had taken say Josh Smith leaving both Swift and Jefferson for Boston, Danny would have had to take Swift per his promise to him.
Also I think for just a moment people need to sit back and remember what this teams record was without Pierce this year. For all the talk of the great drafting that Danny’s done, without Pierce these guys collectively suck.
by Scotty on Jun 8, 2007 8:32 AM EDT reply actions
I have always believed in the idea of drafting the best player available when your choice is in the top ten. That being said, DA certainly has some decisions to make. I hope to god we don’t draft Yi. I strongly feel that this team needs to draft a player with college experience who is closer to contributing right away. With so many ‘ifs’ on our team regarding injury (see: Delonte, TA, Wally) I would have no problem in drafting Brewer or another SF.
by Dulany on Jun 8, 2007 9:29 AM EDT reply actions
Ainge has a good eye for talent, but a mediocre mind for trades. He made a great move in trading Jiri Welsh to Cleveland for the 1st round pick that netted Rondo. My issue with Ainge though is that he’s somewhat wasted some valuable years of Paul Peirce’s career. Either blow it up and start over, or go for it right away. The Walker trade, and aquisition of Raef’s contract, was by far his worst move. That deal crippled our options for a couple of years. Never the less, I think we need to draft a player this year, and consider moving Pierce.
by Real World on Jun 8, 2007 10:39 AM EDT reply actions
Nice work Jeff.
The only thing that irks me is the talk about Rondo and Gomes, how Ainge ’would’ve’ taken them with his higher picks, that’s how much he liked ’em. Just seems like post-draft spin not to be fully trusted.
by bullsblogger on Jun 8, 2007 10:44 AM EDT reply actions
They sucked because they are the youngest, or next to youngest team in the league. They have talent, they just need time to develop. Look at it this way, their future is Rondo, Green, West, Gomes, Perkins, Allen, #5 pick, etc.. All are 20-24 years old THIS YEAR. I’d move Pierce for Deng/Thomas/Gordon or Bynum, and be darn good in two years time.
by Real World on Jun 8, 2007 10:45 AM EDT reply actions
Jeff, I’m curious about your thoughts on where Yi would play if we drafted him. Everyone on this blog assumes he plays the 4. I say he’s to weak for the 4 and has to play the 3. If we truly need to go big, how can Yi be the choice unless Danny chains him to the table at a Sizzler during an all you can eat ribfest?
by Cant Teach Height on Jun 8, 2007 11:22 AM EDT reply actions
I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him play the 4 or even 5. On offense he sounds like a good fit for the high post spot that Doc loves so much. On defense he’ll be a liability with his size. Don’t know how to get around that but maybe they can add some beef to him over the next year or two.
shorter answer: I have as much idea as you do
I don’t assume Yi’s a 4. Based on what I’ve seen from YouTube clips (so what do I know?), it looks like Yi has the speed, footwork, and coordination to play defensively out on the wing as a 3. Especially if the strategy is to block up the paint, deny uncontested 3-point shots, and force the opposing team to take mid-range shots off the dribble (which is what the Spurs did last night to the Cavs).
For instance, if the Celtics were playing the Spurs, on defense Yi would have Jefferson and Perkins behind him, covering Duncan and Oberto, and he’d be out on the perimeter with Pierce, challenging the shots of Finley and Bowen. Sure Yi wouldn’t be a ‘lock-down’ defender, and of course, Pierce isn’t either. But the point would be to cut off the easy entry passes and open 3 point shots.
On offense, I figure Jefferson will be down on the blocks, and Perkins will be at the high post, making passes and setting picks. Yi and Pierce will be out on the perimeter, slicing through the lane for passes. With Yi’s height and ability to make mid-range jump shots, try to imagine how Finley or Bowen would go about defending him.
Good article! Pistol Pete hit it. Ainge;‘s picks are still in league. We can’t control who picks in front of us but I trust Danny will get a player at #5. Sorry he has no interest in Noah. No interest in Connolly means they believe more in Rondo than I’ve seen to date because Connolly does look good.
I can’t beleive you think Ainge is a solid drafter. He has netted one starter in the past five seasons-and it was a good one- a future all star in Al Jefferson. But if all these other draft picks are solid-how come they can’t even hold down a starting role on the second to worst team in the NBA?
by celts_718 on Jun 8, 2007 12:29 PM EDT reply actions
Okay… let me throw a monkey wrench in all this draft talk….
We have the 5th pick, Whose spot does the pick take??
When we grab someone at number 5, what are our expectations of that player.
Does he take Pierces, Jeffersons, Delonte, Green, Rondo’s spot to start? does he come off the bench to contribute? or does he wait his time?
Were all excited about who Danny will draft, but are we being realistic about that players contribution to the team?
I’m sure that eventually he will play, but he will have to earn his playing time.
On offense, Ji can play the 4, with Jefferson in the post. He’s a very good passer so he could make it harder to double down on Al.
On defense he can handle the paint. He is not a weak as some are projecting. Some reports have noted that his lower body is quite strong and he can hold position and block shots with his agility.
While his upper body does need development,until he builds that strength, he would still be the fine as a third spoke in the 4/5 rotation, depending on matchups, with Perkins and Jefferson, providing another source of offense while Jefferson rests.
He is extremely agile for a 7’er, but he could never defend at the three.
The three spot should be filled with Pierce and Gomes anyway.
i know everyone is ripping the first walker trade but didn’t it get us allen and rondo.
by Stuck in Philly on Jun 8, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply actions
Aincent Red — If it is Brewer it enables you to package Green with Theo’s contract
by Stuck in Philly on Jun 8, 2007 1:43 PM EDT reply actions
1st of all:
Danny has done a great job drafting. The comparisons up there are Danny vs rest of league. He has made some mistakes. Its impossible to know these guys for sure. If Perk & Allen weren’t hurt last year and if West wasn’t shifted from position to position those guys would look a lot better.
About Danny’s board – I agree with Jeff’s 3 though I’m not sure with the order. Horford will probably be gone by 5. I’d be happy with any of them.
About Yi’s position – I see him as a 4 in a quick lineup (Al at 5) or 3 in a big lineup with Al & Perk.
The players who are in question are Wally, Delonte, TA, Gerald, Gomes, Ray, Scals.
I think the guy who would suffer the most is Gomes who is a 3/4 just like Yi.
The other guys are in trouble because the bench is getting shorter.
“Danny has done a great job drafting. The comparisons up there are Danny vs rest of league. He has made some mistakes. Its impossible to know these guys for sure. If Perk & Allen weren’t hurt last year and if West wasn’t shifted from position to position those guys would look a lot better.”
You know…. Ainge’s drafting is a half full/half empty thing. He’s had about a dozen draft picks since entering the league and he’s only gotten one sure starter out of that group so far, Al Jefferson. People here ride Banks, calling him a bust; Orien Greene is horrible; Powe is likely a 12th man sort or heading to a career at a lower level. Delonte West has shown little to no improvement and/or development since coming into the league, Gomes is strictly a rotation player and Tony Allen hasn’t really seemed to improve since his rookie season, with the exception of about a 2 week stretch just prior to his devastating injury. Green is going into his 3rd season and is still clueless, Perk can’t stay healthy and Rondo can’t shoot.
How you view the players is really a function of your analysis’ starting point. To take West, for example:
The optmistic sort talks about his hustle and his shooting. They talk about the potential to get better and refer to Pierce’s approval of him. The more realistic/pessimistic (feel free to choose your own term) talk about his inability to handle “on the ball” pressure, his one-handedness, his tweener status, his frequent injuries and the question of which shooter is the real Delonte (Year one and part of year three, or year two and part of year three).
What does seem safe to say is that Ainge hasn’t hit a home run with any player that he had targeted (He’s admitted that Jefferson wasn’t the top choice there and that he got lucky), but he has two players for whom the jury should still be out on, to be fair, in Green and Rondo. He also hasn’t completely missed on any player of significance, as Greene was a second round pick and Banks is clearly good enough to play in the league at some level (What level that is remains unknown).
Stuck in Philly said:
i know everyone is ripping the first walker trade but didn’t it get us allen and rondo.
Yes, and also Raef who Danny turned into I year less and Cap space/trade chip Theo = who knows!
And by the way,about Walker…didn’t Dallas lose interest…and Atlanta…and now Miami.
[/quote][quote][/quote][quote]
by blceltsfan on Jun 8, 2007 3:00 PM EDT reply actions
Where was I…so, I don’t now about you, but I wouldn’t trade Rondo, TA, and Theo’s cap for Walker and Delk
by blceltsfan on Jun 8, 2007 3:32 PM EDT reply actions
Jeff,
Very well done. Ainge has picked some winners but there are a few players he covets and is blind to their deficiencies. You have a couple typos: It should be Thornton, NOT Thronton
by FrieCod on Jun 8, 2007 4:16 PM EDT reply actions
Its true to say that he hasn’t gotten a lot of stars, but he hasn’t usually been in a position to get them. Except for last year where he screwed up with Telfair. Most of the top guys in the league have come in top 10 picks. Ones that develop later than that are the exception. Also it takes a few years sometimes to see what you’ve got. How many GMs have gotten better guys with worse picks in similar drafts? I really don’t know. We can’t give San Antonio’s GM a ton of credit for picking Duncan even though he turned into a star, can we?
Is Brandon Hunter (2003) still in the league? He was another of Ainge’s most common draft type, the power three: Powe, Gomes, and Reed as well. That guy could sure rebound. I think Ainge feels that the tweener has a great bias against him, and that if you get the right guy, you could find a real steal. I mean, every year he drafts one: 2003 Hunter, 2004 Reed, 2005 Gomes, 2006 Powe. If that’s not a pattern, then I’d like to see one.
by Hondo to Rondo on Jun 8, 2007 4:22 PM EDT reply actions
Good post, It would be interesting to see how he stacks up with other GM’s throughout the league in this type of analysis.
My guess is with what Danny’s had to work with he certainly has been above average.
by Dino Radjas Fadja on Jun 8, 2007 6:09 PM EDT reply actions
“How many GMs have gotten better guys with worse picks in similar drafts?”
Well, its not about having better guys, its about having a better team and I’d say there’s pretty compelling evidence to suggest that Danny Ainge has built the second worst team in the league. Sure people will talk about the injuries, but every team has injuries. Some will say ‘but we were so young’ whose fault is that? Some will mention having to get out from under bad contracts but who picked those contracts up to begin with?
Here’s an interesting team to look at in terms of draft positions.
C – EFA
PF – 1
SF – UFA
SG – 56
PG – 28
R – 41
R – 15
R – 21
R – 11
There’s only two picks on this team in the lottery.
I look at Danny Ainge’s tenure and think he’d make a hell of a Fantasy NBA GM, but he’s got no clue how to put together a franchise to make it winners. His record’s pretty poor, even those who espouse the ‘vision’ have to be having Bush flashbacks about WMD now.
by Scotty on Jun 8, 2007 7:00 PM EDT reply actions
Danny’s propensity to trade Paul Pierce has lingered long and on.Now might be the best time to trade him to charlotte or Atlanta. I would prefer atlnata’s two first round pick (both Lottery) to charlottes. Either ones wil due for Paul. plus players like Gerald wallace and Marvin Wiliams
by Freeease1 on Jun 8, 2007 8:06 PM EDT reply actions
Draft picks are tough to figure out. Who knew Pierce, Parker, Ginolbli, Nowitzki, Nash, Kobe etc. would be as good as they are. They were drafted at a lower draft position in comparison to their NBA success. On the trade side or free agent side who thought Bruce Bowen would be all NBA defensive player year after year when he played very little in Boston. We knew he was great at defense but not as great as he turned out. I think you try to get a player with determination and all around athletic ability you will have a higher chance to succeed but no guarantees.
“I would prefer atlnata’s two first round pick (both Lottery) to charlottes. Either ones wil due for Paul. plus players like Gerald wallace and Marvin Wiliams”
You won’t get picks, young players and contracts which are favorable to the team for Pierce. Charlotte won’t give up the 8th pick for him if they were allowed to make the deal straight up, Atlanta might do the 11th becuase Billy Knight is actually that stupid but that’s the only reason.
The idea that you’d get a pick and a player like Williams or Wallace (if they could actually deal him at this point) for Pierce is laughable.
by Scotty on Jun 8, 2007 9:49 PM EDT reply actions
I’d say great job but the rumors you’re referring to were largely speculation regardless of how you say it. You sure do try to make it sound like these were all probably the truth. Some were, most probably weren’t.
Every GM misses over huge guys, EVERY GM. To say he was lucky because of getting Al and not the other two bums is also a waste of time, maybe he would have picked Al regardless of what they says to the media.
Quoting things that belong in the National Enquirer Of Sports Rumors is just keeping the circle that is slowly destroying the respectabily of sports nowadays. What’s to say he wouldn’t have picked Al regardless? Great bit of info but way too pessimistic to be objective in spite of your good intentions.
by davemonsterband on Jun 9, 2007 12:10 AM EDT reply actions
The importance of Deeeefense gets underrated. With Oden off the board, there seems to be a consensus that Brewer is the next best defensive player (though not a true big man) available. Wilbon’s take on how former Celtic Bruce Bowen slowed Lebron in the playoffs illustrates that you can’t win if you don’t stop the other team from scoring:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/08/AR2007060802804.html
Thornton’s lament that he could have shot better (while working out with Brewer) suggests that Brewer’s shut down defense might be just what the team needs. Brewer, Allen, Rondo and (to a lesser extent) Perkins and Pierce will improve their and the team’s defensive play simply by the youngsters gaining more experience.
At #5, my gut suggests that Brewer is comparable to Dwayne Wade (also picked there) but better defensively to compensate for his still developing but less than Wade level offense. However, with Perkins, Pierce and a cast of inconsistent but helpful role players, the Celtics had plenty of offense before injuries ruined their last season. Their defense sucked pretty much from beginning to end.
I’ve got this handle because I loved the all around play of my favorite player from a generation ago. “Havlicek stole the ball” is a more famous call than just about any offensive play you can think of in all of professional basketball playoff history and no less important than some of those clutch last second shots made by Michael Jordan and others.
Everybody hoped for Oden because he seems like the closest thing to Bill Russell in the last 40 years. His defense is ahead of his offense. Brewer might just be the closest thing to Havlicek we’ve seen since then. Hondo was a proven college winner who was overshadowed until he turned pro by Jerry Lucas at that level (Bobby Knight played with them too). Brewer’s role in Florida’s championships is reminiscent of Havlicek’s unselfish play that made him an underrated commodity when Red Auerbach astutely picked him.
One of the major league scouting directors I heard on the radio dispelled how comparing draftees to major leaguers is more important than the idea that such statements put too high expectations on unproven players. He said that, if you envision a prospect comparing to somebody who starred in the major leagues, that’s what you are looking for in a prospect and why you pick him.
While it’s more likely that Brewer never turns out to be so good, the feeling that he has the potential to be that kind of player (i.e. Havlicek) if he develops is why I hope Ainge picks him.
“Wow! So Pierce’s value is at such an all time low that he couldn’t fetch Marvin Williams?? Yikes!! Kinda doubt it….”
Not along with a lottery pick. You might get him as the centerpiece of the deal for Pierce, but they’re not going to add much more of value when they know they’d be on the hook for 75 million dollars worth of salary on a position they have no need for.
by Scotty on Jun 9, 2007 12:20 PM EDT reply actions
Let’s not forget about Ainge’s best signing yet..SCAL
by BleedGreen17 on Jun 9, 2007 2:56 PM EDT reply actions
Scotty, that ‘s why the trade would never happen. Why tons of trades don’t generate. Boston would want more for Pierce than Marvin Williams. Atlanta doesn’t want to be on the hook for Pierce’s salary. Most deals are financially driven. Gotta keep fishin till you find the right situation both financial and talent wise.
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