A Bird in the Hand
by Jeff Clark on Jul 24, 2007 5:00 AM EDT
in Boston Celtics Articles
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During this active offseason a lot of controversy has surrounded Al Jefferson. The Celtics' promising young big man was the subject of potential trade rumors during the pre-draft KG hype, but public outcry for him to stay was overwhelming and may have ultimately helped to keep him in green.
Whether or not that proves to be a wise move remains to be seen, but there is no arguing about how talented a low-post scorer Jefferson is. In an era when big men are "diversifying" their offensive repertoires and becoming more perimeter oriented, Jefferson's true low-post ability is both rare and exceptional.
The recent Herald article by Steve Bulpett was a well-timed piece because of how polarizing and popular a player Jefferson has become. Doc Rivers was spot on in his assertion that the young big man is being over-hyped by many in Celtic nation. Danny Ainge was also correct to point out that Jefferson’s ability and acumen for offense is special for one so young.
Jefferson has a substantial amount of work to do before he can be considered a franchise player. No one is professing that he’s "arrived" by any stretch. But he certainly has some things to be excited about in terms of being a featured offensive option. Jefferson’s ability to become a primary offensive option for this team is a central element to his development. There may be players who score more efficiently or do more off the ball the Jefferson.
However, the ability to serve as a focal point on the offensive end and draw extra defensive attention may be one of the most important functions a low-post scorer can provide. A dominant back-to-the-basket threat can completely befuddle even the stoutest defensive fronts. As long as the interior player can adequately identify the double teams and get the ball moving, he has the ability to improve the offensive efficiency of his entire team.
For a team that has a long ways to go defensively, sometimes the best defense is a lethal half-court offense. The Celtics also have a lot of work to do as well before they can be considered a legit contender, but the continued development of Jefferson should help to establish a strong base to build off of.
Let's take a look at a couple of the league's other low-post threats, courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology. The "NBA%" is how a player rates relative to his peers in each category-Excellent, Very Good, Good, Average, Below Average, Poor. Dwight Howard represents the stalwart of the Eastern Conference 8th Seed. Tim Duncan, the NBA Champion:
Dwight Howard: Overall scoring effectiveness is Very Good, NBA% 70
- Single Covered in the Post (48.5% of his offense)
- Offensive Rebounds (15.33% of his offense)
- Shots off Cuts (12.67% of his offense)
- Doubled Covered in the Post (11.34% of his offense)
- Transition (5.18% of his offense)
- Pick and Roll as Roll Man (3.85% of his offense)
Gets most of his shots in the post (10.7 possessions per game, Average, NBA% 40)Tim Duncan: Overall scoring effectiveness is Very Good, NBA% 80
- Single Covered in the Post (40.69% of his offense)
- Doubled Covered in the Post (11.89% of his offense)
- Pick and Roll as Roll Man (11.4% of his offense)
- One on One/ISO (9.8% of his offense)
- Shots off Cuts (8.27% of his offense)
- Offensive Rebounds (6.86% of his offense)
Gets most of his shots in the post (11.6 possessions per game, Very Good, NBA% 69)Al Jefferson: Overall scoring effectiveness is Very Good, NBA% 66
- Single Covered in the Post (50.37% of his offense)
- Offensive Rebounds (12.45% of his offense)
- Shots off Cuts (11.45% of his offense)
- Doubled Covered in the Post (6.96% of his offense)
- Pick and Roll as Roll Man (4.85% of his offense)
- One on One/ISO (3.75% of his offense)
Gets most of his shots in the post (9.6 possessions per game, Very Good, NBA% 71)Howard is a more efficient overall scorer if you consider all the points each score, but the difference is quite small. However, when looking at how they score, Jefferson is substantially superior in post scoring to Howard. Both players take a majority of their scoring attempts in the post, where Jefferson has a sizable advantage. Howard relies on all his other tricks to beef up his efficiency-offensive boards, basket cuts, etc.
If you're looking for a basket in the post when setting up in the half court, Al Jefferson to date is by far the favorite. This has nothing to do with how they may develop in the future, but Jefferson is the superior post scorer with Howard being the more efficient overall scorer.
If you're looking at roles and game strategy, the numbers to date show that Al Jefferson is a more effective "go-to" guy on offense that Howard at this time because of his substantial advantage over Howard.
Comparatively, Tim Duncan is superior offensively to either Jefferson or Howard in terms of pure scoring efficiency. However, when in the post Jefferson actually holds a slight edge. These numbers also don't reflect the substantial increase in productivity that Jefferson had from the first half to the 2nd half of the season, which would probably push his offensive numbers to even greater heights.
It’s important to remember how much of the offense is structured around Duncan when thinking on offensive efficiency and post scoring. But Jefferson spent a sizable portion of last season as the Celtics primary offensive option as well and was the central player the opposition focused on stopping. The team was not successful in terms of wins and losses while Jefferson was the "last man standing" on an injury riddles squad, but they did enjoy a nice late season burst when Paul Pierce returned and lent some perimeter support to Jefferson’s devastating interior game.
The one glaring thing that is missing from this analysis is of course defensive impact. Despite numerous statistics that try and track defensive tendencies there really is no great statistical measure for defensive impact because of the amount of rotations and switches that take place during the over 80 possessions a team plays on the defensive end.
Until Jefferson improves his defensive ability substantially he isn't going to be anywhere close to the player Duncan is and Howard could be. But, as far as Jefferson's offensive ability as a "go-to" scorer, the sky's the limit. At only 22 years of age, the future is all in front of him. This doesn’t mean the team around him will be sufficient to ever deliver the much desired "Green 17", but it is something to consider going into next season-the first that features three legit scoring threats of a star caliber in quite some time.
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Nice article. I’m of the opinion that Jefferson really looks up to Duncan and tries to emulate him. In the game in San Antonio, you could tell that AJ was trying to measure himself against Duncan and in breaks in game action, I noticed AJ eyeing Duncan, presumably to try to pick something up.
I think it was after that game, that Duncan gave some props to AJ.
If AJ is trying to emulate Duncan, we’re in good hands. For a talented player to keep his eye on one of the best big man in the game, and try to learn from him tells me all I need to know about AJ’s desire to be great.
I really can’t wait to see what AJ does this season, particularly right around the All Star game through the rest of the season. It was exactly at that time that AJ really started to turn it on. He was much more aggressive, and confident in his outside shot, and his ability to pump fake off of it. Also, his post passing and double team (sometimes triple team) recognition really improved from that point on. With another off season with C.Ray, and his understanding he can score practically against any big in the league, I think were going to see a much more aggressive and, hopefully, downright nasty post play from him. Also, this knowledge might allow him to focus more on improving his defense.
I think there’s good reason why no one really wants to see him go.
by cos on Jul 24, 2007 6:20 AM EDT reply actions
good article. al would get more pick and roll points with a sharper focused point guard. this is one area doc needs to set up and a veteran point would help. i really think the defense will come for al but only within the context of the team play. this is where doc has let down his players and more team d needs to be stressed- and not with everyone chasing.
This is another example of the tendency to go overboard with statistics. Happily a way has yet to be found to measure defensive effectiveness.
The most important “stat” should be how well a player performs in big (playoff) games. Of course, neither Howard and Jefferson have much to offer for analysis in this regard. You won’t know how good either of the young bigs will turn out to be until their teams begin to make some noise, and if their teams never do, well then it really doesn’t matter.
by lemonadesky on Jul 24, 2007 7:27 AM EDT reply actions
I can’t wait to see how the team uses Jefferson now that Allen is in the mix (insert Doc joke here, but still)
I think because it is so easy for Ray and Pierce to get in the groove, we should start off each game making a strong effort to get Jefferson the ball – which would get him going early and put the other teams’ bigs in foul trouble
also, I’d like to see Ray Allen make the entry pass in a two man game with him in order to give Jefferson the ultimate kick-out guy if Allen’s man doubles down. They would work well in a pick-and-roll set too.
and wait till Rondo starts penetrating, he can dump it to Big Al or find Allen or Pierce for open shots
yep, I don’t think offense is going to be the problem this year
i don’t think jefferson has reached his defensive ceiling. far from it.
after establishing himself on offense last year he can now turn his attention to the other side of the ball.
after a summer of work with clifford ray and perk i expect al to show up at camp displaying a far more effective defensive game. believe in him or not perk is one of the hardest working defenders i’ve ever seen and i expect his ethic has been rubbing of on his friend big al for quite some time.
Al has the things in him that one cannot teach.
He’ll be just fine.
Thankfully, it appears, we’ll watch him continue to blossom in Green.
Ray Allen is a Godsend to this team as he’s someone who cares about the game and is willing to share his knowledge with the young guns.
Gerald Green should shadow him 24/7.
Excellent piece of writing and analysis here Eric. Kudos!
I think that Motown’s comments about Al needing to be “great” are spot on, though I disagree about PP ever being the odd man out. (He’s just too good for that to ever happen… you’re probably overthinking a bit).
For this team to be really good they need to stay healthy, get good to great performances from the Big 3, get average to good performances from Perk and Rondo, and establish 3-4 solid contributors off the bench (part of this will depend on Doc establishing roles and a rotation and part on guys like TA, Gomes, Powe and whoever Danny brings in via trade or FA).
by alchemist on Jul 24, 2007 8:12 AM EDT reply actions
Good article.
I think Jefferson needs to touch the ball on the majority of the half court sets. He doesn’t need to be the number one shooter. But feeding the ball to him in low will force the defense to react, creating bigger holes for Pierce and Allen. Of course if the defense doesn’t react, Jefferson can take all the good shots he can create one on one.
Not quite sure how you got all that from those stats. Al got more of his offense against single coverage than Duncan and Howard. Is that because he did better against single coverage than the other guys? Was put in more single coverage situations than the other guys? Did he do worse in the other categories than the other guys? I hope that with Ray Ray Al will get less double coverage this next year.
Our best offensive team will probably be Jeff, Gomes, PP, Ray, and Rondo, although if Big Baby develops at light speed, a front line of Al and Baby, with PP, Ray and Rondo, if Baby is getting space, as he should be with Al, Ray and PP as options and hitting a mid range jumper, I mean that is a tough tough team. A lot of things can go right this year, but we need the young guys to come on big now
This comparison seems kind of pointless to me. So Dwight is more effective without the ball, Jeff is more effective with the ball, and Duncan is better then both. We already knew that.
My problem is that offense is only half the game. ANd because there’s no easy way to measure it, it gets little mention. BUT – Tim Duncan is the best defender in the game. Dwight Howard is a good, if still limited, defender. And Al Jefferson is a liability on defense. You can’t have any kind of honest comparison, without taking that into account.
by Cullain on Jul 24, 2007 10:11 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t follow the one on one/ISO percentage. Seems like Al does quite a bit more of that than the percentage indicates.
One of my pet peeves with the C’s is the pick and roll, both on offense and defense. It is something that can be learned, and we are horrible at it on both ends of the floor. The league has a pick and roll virtuoso tandem in Nash/Stoudamire right now, and we should be studying them frame by frame for technique. If we learned to be good at the pick and roll, we’d probably also learn to defend it better.
Now if Jefferson could just learn to tape his ankles properly……
by The Real Large James on Jul 24, 2007 11:04 AM EDT reply actions
I would take Dwight Howard over Al Jefferson without a doubt.
One thing you all are underestimating, there’s still an enormous potential in Howard that’s still uncovered.
please stop comparing AL to Dwight Howard.
by impopo on Jul 24, 2007 11:23 AM EDT reply actions
also, I’d like to see Ray Allen make the entry pass in a two man game with him in order to give Jefferson the ultimate kick-out guy if Allen’s man doubles down. They would work well in a pick-and-roll set too.
Two problems here: 1) Ray is a horrible entry passer, and he’s not a stand still jump shooter. So to get Al the ball you’re actually moving away from Ray’s strengths. Denfensively I don’t think they’ll double down off Ray anyways. With Perkins and Rondo on the court there are two guys who at this point aren’t the most efficient offensive players in the world. Double off them instead. 2) Ray’s not good at the pick and roll, even the year they won 52 the primary pick and roll options at hte top of the key were Luke Ridnour and Antonio Daniels. It’s not one of Ray’s specialties.
Ray’s a rythmn shooter, put him into those positions. I think you’re better off with Rondo making that entry pass to Jefferson and running some kind of offside action to get Ray a better look.
by Scotty on Jul 24, 2007 11:44 AM EDT reply actions
I think it will be interesting to keep comparing Howard and Al throughout their careers, being that Howard went #1 and Al #15, both straight from high school. I know this is oversimplifying, but to me, Howard is the more gifted physically, but Al has a more refined offensive game and more “weapons.”
This was written specifically in response to the forum discussion about who was the better offensive player…Jefferson is a much better low-post scorer as a featured option, Dwight Howard is more of a clean-up player…the difference is substantial when it comes to each player recieving the ball in an offensive set and going to work…
Both players have a ways to go before they’re finished products, but Jefferson is BY FAR the superior feature offensive player at this point in time-it’s not even close…
by BillfromBoston on Jul 24, 2007 12:48 PM EDT reply actions
I like big Al, don’t get me wrong. I just think those statistics are meaningless out of context. This was a losing team last year. Most games, the other team would let the cetls get a big lead, figure out their simple game plane, and then shut them down in the 4th quarter. Stats are worthless when looking at a jv basketball team with one scoring option. No one else could shoot the ball last year. I’ce seen lots of games where the opposing strategy was to shut everyone else down, and let the one opposing scoring option to have almost as much as he wants. Next year there will be lots of film for opponents to watch and figure out Al’s tendencies.
This upcoming year will be alot different.
People look at the fact that Al put up good numbers and the Celts were terrible and come to the conclusion that Al was just putting up big numbers on a terrible team in games where we weren’t competetive. But that’s not the case. In January we were 2-14. Al put up 15 points and 12 boards on 46% shooting. In March we were 7-8. Al went for 20 and 11 on 55% shooting.
Al struggled when he was the only real offensive threat. That’s probably because he’s a low post player. If your only scorer is a perimeter player he can make hay because he gets the ball 25 feet from the hoop guarded by one player. It’s pretty easy to get a shot off like that. Al would get the ball down low with 2 or 3 defenders right on top of him.
gosh, the way alot of you are writing, you’d think Al had been on the all star team before! What’s the deal, I mean, he’s alright, but let’s not get carried away.
I hate Doc Rivers. Bad coach, and a deceptively cocky and small person who is competitive with his own players.
by jurrasic earl on Jul 24, 2007 6:27 PM EDT reply actions
I would take AL over Howard just because I feel that AL
is more fun to watch. You can’t double off Perk or Rondo
if: you position Perk on the foul line and Rondo at the
top of the key. If Perk’s man drops off him, Perk cuts
down the lane for a return pass. And Rondos’s man is too
far away. See John Wooden’s 1-3-1 high-low offense. The
Bullets used to use something similar with Elvin Hayes on
the low block and Wes Unseld on the foul line.
by Greg37 on Jul 24, 2007 6:45 PM EDT reply actions
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