What If Everyone’s Healthy?
by Jeff Clark on Jul 26, 2007 7:00 AM EDT
in Boston Celtics Articles
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PrintThis is going to sound a little like a John Lennon song, but can you imagine if everyone with injury issues on this team comes back full speed and playing to their potential? For now lets assume the team doesn't make another big move and perhaps only brings in a scrub veteran backup point guard, how good can they be?
Starting at the top, Pierce and Ray Allen both seem like they should be back to normal for the start of camp. Then again, you could have said the same thing last year, so there’s no guarantee. But if they are on the court for 78+ games, it wouldn't take much else to get this team into the playoffs.
Al Jefferson has had his share of ankle issues, but seemed to finally put those behind him last year, which was great until he needed an Appendectomy. The last half of the year showed us what he could be. Think of what he can do over the course of a whole season.
Those three guys alone have me pretty optimistic about the season. Each fought off injury or illness last year, but each should be healthy this year. How about the support players?
Kendrick Perkins is a warrior. He probably rushed back a little too quickly from a separated shoulder and then played pretty much the whole season with plantar fasciitis. I’ve always been a sucker for Perk, and maybe he’ll never be 100% again. But if he can stay on the court and at least feel unrestrained in his mobility, I still think he can be our rock in the middle.
Speaking of the middle, it is very easy to forget that Theo Ratliff is a human being aside from his expiring contract. In fact, once upon a time he was a Defensive Player of the year and was good enough to get himself a fat, long-term contract. I’m not even going to consider him being "full speed." I’m not even going to count on him for anything. But if we are dreaming here, what if he did come in and give us 15 minutes a night at the center spot? Just watching him work on the court might be enough to teach Perk and Jefferson some old-dog tricks.
Tony Allen might be the biggest wildcard in the bunch. If he can play like he did for that one stretch last year, he’s a difference maker. He could give the team the sorely needed elements of wing defense and slashing scoring. It took him quite a while to fully come back from his first major injury. It might take him another whole season to "get right." After watching him go down last year, part of me wrote him off completely. But you never know. He might just surprise us all.
I think Scalabrine missed some time for, ...umm, I forget, but I remember not caring because it seemed silly for the team to play a veteran role player in a meaningless season. This year, if he comes in off the bench and doesn’t feel like he’s the best shooter on the floor, then maybe he can be that glue-guy off the bench that Danny envisioned from the start.
For the rest of the team I don’t recall too many other issues aside from bumps, bruises, and a few days off here and there. Still, the law of averages seems to indicate that someone is going to have some issues sometime this season. Personally I hope it is someone from the bench instead of one of the starters. I mean, we can’t lose our whole starting lineup like we did last year, could we? I’m digging myself deep into a jinx whole, so I’m going to back away slowly and pretend that didn’t happen.
So let’s get Perkins to shed some pounds so he’s lighter on his feet. Let’s sign Tony Allen up for some Pavlovian training so that when he hears a whistle, he stops what he’s doing and hands the ball to the ref. Let’s keep Theo away from stiff breezes. Let’s keep Big Baby away from Dunkin Donuts (ok, that’s a cheap shot, I’m sorry). Let’s keep Telfair’s girlfriend and her gun collection away from the Gah-en (oh wait, that’s another article for another day).
To me, this team really does look like a very good team on paper. In theory, if everyone was healthy and played up to their potential, we’d be a playoff team no doubt, and who knows how far they could go from there. I guess the problem is that big "if" at the start of that sentence. Something is bound to go wrong next year, but what if it doesn’t? How good do you think the team could be as it stands now?
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If everyone stays healthy and tony is able to be back to full speed by the end of the season i could see this team competing for the East. we have 3 scorers that cant really be stopped 1 on 1, so if they can learn to play with and off of each other the rest will fall into place. I cant wait for the season to start.
Tony Allen and another “big” are the keys…those 2 put everybody else in nice roles..eg-Ray&PP get more rest,Perk is not counted on as much,GG plays back in rotation,Wallace covers taller guys if he plays etc….but when all is said and done it’s on AL..he’ll be judged as the guy we kept instead of KG and how he plays will set the tone for the season…btw-Rueben the rapist would do nicely till Tony was ready….big? Theo if healthy?nah..gotta find one
i think big baby might have a say in how successful
we are this season if were all healthy and all.
he might be the next boozer or other star taking in the
2nd round. of course im going by his college career
and his skills and his shut down performance of oden
and then his 19pt 14reb game in summer league. but i
do think he might be a lot more than what we expect
for a 2nd rounder.and hey a big body in the middle
willing to mix it up never hurts
Brickowski said:
Yep. with everyone healthy they will win 40 games, assuming that Rivers only throws 4-5 games into the toilet with bad end-of-game coaching decisions.
==
I see the good in people.
My prediction is that Rivers & Co. will learn from their mistakes last year. So add those 4-5 games to your prediction, Brick, and we’ve got a 45 win team.
I believe.
I’m not sure how good they will be. Thankfully, people only have one appendix, so Jefferson won’t need that again. Then again, Trevor Rabin (guitarist for Yes) had 3 spleens… hopefully Al is not a genetic freak.
No defense? Rondo, Perk, Tony & Ratliff play some D. Pruitt and Wallace may be able to tighten things up too if they see court time. Perk, Al and Pierce get some good boards (when healthy).
Somewhere between 41-50 wins. Ray Allen, and improved young guys, keep scoring droughts to a minimum, and Ray provides another steady guy at the end to win close games.
Of course they won’t be healthy. Ratliff is likely finished. Tony Allen won’t be ready until November at the earliest. And of course, even a modest injury to Pierce, Ray Allen or Jefferson sends them right back into the lottery.
So a realistic prognosis would be 34-35 wins, especially since every other team in the Atlantic Division has improved.
The keys are Pierce, Ray Ray and Jefferson. I have no reason to think that they wont be healthy for the vast majority of the games. Pierce and Ray Ray are older but have been solid (especially in seasons where there aren’t so many prizes to tank for). Perk is someone I really hope can be at 100%. Last year he never really looked like I know he can and I think the injuries are what did it. With those guys healthy we are in the playoffs. With Ratliff and Allen, we are going deep in the east in my estimation. There’s no team in the league who can really challenge with an injury to one of their top guys.
The “if” is the key to our season, as it is to every team’s season. If 100% healthy, we win 45-50 and compete for the Leastern Conf. crown.
Look at the Cavs’ playoff run. Had the Wiz had had Arenas and Jamieson, it would have been one and done for the Cavs. Had NJ had Krstic and a healthy Jefferson, the series would have been 4-2 NJ instead of 4-2 Cavs. If 100% healthy, we’re no worse than the Cavs overall.
But Brickowski is right: expect nothing from TA this year, or maybe ever; Ratliff will maintain his customary status; heaven forbid Rondo goes down, not to mention the New Big Three. With a key injury, we win 35 or so.
Injuries are all-important in the NBA.
I say 45-48 wins if allen and pierce play full seasons and everyone else is realtively healthy. Outside of Arenas and Jamison what other team in the east has 2 scorers like we do? Maybe wade and shag if they’re both on the court or perhaps VC and Jefferson but Pierce and ALlen are clearly the best scoring duo in the east barring injury. They should give us 50-55 points a night. Jefferson should average about 16 or 17 per contest and if the rest of the team can give you 30 or so a night we’ll average over 100 points per game. We’re not winning with defense this year but we will outscore a lot of teams!
Wow. Well, if everyone is healthy, Ray and Paul cannot be stopped. Al is also in there. But the intangible players, . . . Perk before the shoulder injury was playing better than Al. He’s a smarter all around player than Al. So I see no reason why Perk cannot be a difference maker on the court with his presence. He’ll never be a scorer in this league, but he does everything else. And he can do them better than most.
I think the starting five will be more or less unstoppable. Certainly some of the veteran teams can still ‘school’ Perk, Al, and Rondo, but I don’t think it will take much for them to learn from that. Rondo at times this season will feel as though he died and went to heaven. Baskets should come easy, and often. And whatever defensive problems the team has will be minimized by the pressure constantly on the other team to keep scoring to keep up with the Cs.
The bench? Gomes is going to be incredible subbing at the three and four. He’s got an incredible stroke. Theo, again if healthy for 15 minutes can play as well as any big defensively. Al and Perk will be able to see what Clifford Ray is teaching them through the play of Theo. Tony for the life of me doesn’t appear to be ready any time before Christmas, and I still place him at the late February or March range. But the thing is, he won’t need to do much this year. Anything he gives will be gravy.
The problem for this team is Doc. If healthy this team should win 45 games without a problem. Fifty or more is a possibility. The thing is that Doc doesn’t prepare teams during the preseason. So this team will probably start off slow with little continuity. If they make it through the first month above .500 then the sky is the limit. The talent is there.
It’s all about coaching and chemistry. Without those, we win 30 tops. With chemistry and good coaching – 45. But, wins and losses really don’t matter to me. These guys need playoff experience. Anyone can get into the playoffs (almost, in the East). It’s the education they ae gonna get when they learn what it takes to win in the playoffs. You young pups don’t remember that.
In terms of health – where would Cleveland have been this year if LJames had been hurt?
Okay, I’ll play along.
My predicion for this team with only the normal assortment of injuries is 42-46 wins. Pierce, Ray Allen, and Al Jefferson in a weak division should be enough if they’re reasonably healthy.
If EVERYONE—Tony Allen, Ratliff, Courtney from the Celtics Dancers—were to come back full strength and stay healthy and playing at their peak: 50 games.
Now… we all realize how absurd this is, don’t we? Pierce, Allen, Allen, Ratliff, Jefferson, and Perkins have all missed long stretches due to injury over the last few years. Most of these guys have had more than one long stretch on the DL. So an injury free year is REALLY unlikely.
Next, to expect Tony Allen and Ratliff to jump back in and be even a shodow of their former selves this year also seems ridiculously rosy. It took a year for Tony to come back from a much less serious injury in 05-06. And Ratliff? Even if his health weren’t an issue, he’s a bit long in the tooth, no?
And Perkins as our Rock? Only if you mean big, thick and immobile!
But even if everyone is healthy, I agree with the other posters: the problem is Doc. Even with a 50 win season, we’re out in the first round of the playoffs and Rivers is gone. (Two years too late!)
by Wycsend on Jul 26, 2007 9:03 AM EDT reply actions
I’m a bit more optimistic than folks, I guess. With resonable health, I see the C’s having a 70% chance of making the playoffs, a 35% chance of making it out of the first round, a 15% chance of going to the ECF, a 5% chance of making it to the finals, and a 1% of winning it all. Sort of depressing, now that I’m thinking about it…
Great piece Jeff. Exactly what I have been saying all along. If we had been healthy last year we would have won 35-40 games minimum. With the addition of Ray Allen and a healthy Big AL we should add another 10 to that total. This could easily put us 45-50 wins next season. I find it quite funny how so many people here discount the effect of injuries to key people. Some of the points made are debatable, but not that. It made all the difference last year and if we are truly healthy then we will be pretty good. Any help from TA or Theo will be gravy.
I would guard the inbounds pass with 2 seconds left. I would have my best defensive players on the floor during their crunch time possessions.
I would foul up 3 in their last possession.
I would have my 6-8 rookie PF, my best available rebounder on my team playing center if my team was decimated by injuries. I wouldn’t have an out of shape 6-9 PF who doesn’t rebound or box out because of the “intangibles” he brings to the table starting at the 5 no matter how desperate I was. Particularly in the “mode” you thought we were in….where we needed to see who we had for young players.
I would implement a coherent defense. If I wasn’t capable, I’d insist on an assistant who was.
I would never joke around with my opponents down 30 while the game is still going on.
I would spend the entire timeout instructing my players, particularly in that they are so young, instead of wasting 30 seconds of it doing a George Jefferson walk around my half of the court, taking a clipboard I hardly ever use, and talking to my assistants. (You kinda sorta could do a lot of that talking to the assistants stuff while the game is going on.)
Under no circumstance would I watch a young player have the best game of his career and give him DNP/CD the next few games after that.
Lastly, I would resign before I would preside over that disgraceful last half-of-season exhibition. Mostly because I would know that it would be next to impossible to have the respect of my players after that.
If Theo is healthy (and I believe he will “magically” be healthy in this his contract year), does he start? He’s probably a smarter player and a better weak-side shot blocker than Perk at this point, but Perk is probably a better rebounder and bruiser than Ratliff.
Sure wish we had Camby instead of Ratliff…
Of course you would Plowboy because you are making those calls now looking back… If YOU were coaching the team, they would have been blown out and they would have never been within reach to blow it in the end. You sure are high on your abilities as a coach for someone whose resume consists of posting blind on a blog. No one on here could do a better job than Doc. I have done a fair amount, and couldn’t come close to what he knows. There are coaches out there I’d rather have than Doc, yes, but to say anyone out there is better than him is just plain rediculous.
Rev72: last year my thought was I’d play Theo at the start of games (to prevent Perk from picking up 2 quick fouls) and at the end of games (to close out wins). If he’s healthy (I agree with your slightly cynical analysis of that, but unlike you I’m a hardened cynic.) my inclination would be to use him the same way as I would have done last year. Just my 2 cents. I too would love to get Camby.
If everyone is healthy I think we’re looking at a 35-38 win team. I can’t see this team becoming more than 3 points more effective per 100 offensive possessions while maintaining last years defensive output. If they do that however they’ll shimmy up to 40-42 wins.
I don’t like the idea of the only somewhat effective PG on the team being a second year guy. It works if you have a vet backup like Seattle had with Daniels the year they shocked the world and won 52, but we don’t have that guy as of yet.
I still don’t buy that this teams perimeter defense is going ot be good enough to effectively keep our interior players from getting into serious foul trouble early and often.
Love to see a 50 win season, what a wild ride that would be.
by Scotty on Jul 26, 2007 1:28 PM EDT reply actions
Ancient Red: I had that same “message too short” problem, and looked up an old thread on it. Apparently, it has to do with the spacing or other attributes of the first line in your post. If you finagle with your first line a little bit (eliminating extra spaces, quote marks, etc.), you can outwit the computer. I tried that and it worked.
Rivers’ basketball knowledge should dwarf mine, PLAYA. He makes 5M per year to excel at it.
My years of being a junior high coach gave me the experience to implement both a zone defense and an offense to combat it. It’s the first defense most young players learn, PLAYA. So it shouldn’t be hard to implement as a part-time defense on a young team. Sure as hell is better than the full-time blitz that any decent coach can adjust to.
Hindsight?
The biggest Celtics’ homer in history, Tommy, (an NBA championship coach) has questioned not guarding the inbounds pass while it happenned along with me.
Or not fouling with a 3pt lead.
You’re right, PLAYA. I probably couldn’t do a better job than Rivers. But I’d learn from my mistakes a whole lot quicker.
We’d all love to see a 50 win season.
Brick, Nate MacMillian is not that much better of a coach than Doc Rivers and might be one of the most overated coaches I’ve ever seen (other than Doc by Danny).
by Scotty on Jul 26, 2007 2:51 PM EDT reply actions
We can have a great team on paper, but to be a good team we need to be cohesive together. We have our big three, now we just need to have the role players to be that great team. I believe we have guys who fill that need here, it is just a matter of them excepting their roles on this team. If this happens then we are a 50 win team and top four in the East. If we don’t get that we are a 45 win team or less and a bottom four team in the seedings for playoffs.
With apologies to the Delonte fans, we get healthier just by him being gone. He’s a nice player, but misses a lot of time. No Wally makes us healthier too. I am also a fan of Perk’s but I root for him, I don’t believe in him as a starting NBA center. (Hope to be proven wrong). Gomes and Rondo and Leon and Gerald have to be better even if T.Allen can’t come back. My Koolaid weakness is always the new guys. I think Big Baby and Wallace are going to be factors. Add it all up and I think 42 wins meets expectations.
So Iowa Ploughboy would resign if he “lost the respect” of his players. First of all, I don’t think Doc lost the respect of his players. What’s your evidence of that? And secondly, not even an Iowa ploughboy walks away from $5.0 million.
A moderately healthy, highly motivated for one more contract Ratliff playing 15-18 minutes a game (first 6 of 1Q, last 3 of 2Q, first 4 of 3Q and last 2 to 5 of 4Q) would be a huge improvement for our interior D. How many times did we watch Perk helplessly flail at a penetrating player because he couldn’t jump with bum feet or watch Scal, Powe or Gomes get overpowered because their too short?
More playing time for Rondo would help increase our steals and potential fast break opportunities. He’s a really good on-ball defender and he understands how to help away from the ball. I can vividly remember at least a half dozen steals he made when he left his man to help defend on an entry pass into the high post.
Healthy and motivated PP and Ray Allen will play decent D. Al should improve as well. He’s already made great strides on the defensive glass. More work on denying the entry pass on the post and staying between his man and the rim should help the overall team D as well.
Scoring points shouldn’t be a problem. Defense, especially denying the cutter on pick and rolls and pick and pops, remains the biggest issue.
A fully healthy team wins 40-45 games. Someone will inevitably get knicked up and we’ll probably find ourselve on the lower end of that range.
I also don’t expect a heck of a lot from Tony Allen. Severe knee injuries (especially 2 in the last 3 years) takes a lot out of a player. If nothing else, his confidence going to the rim and leaping will take a while to get back. Hope he fully recovers and can become the 20pt per game terror he was blossoming into before he hurt himself.
by dchooligan on Jul 26, 2007 3:28 PM EDT reply actions
Plowboy – You don’t hear Tommy constantly ripping Doc to shreds either though do you? He is a class act and maybe you ought to follow suit a little. It’s fine to disagree, but there is a difference between giving examples of things you’d do differently and being on a witch hunt to disgrace the guy.
I’ll agree with the learning from the mistakes though. It would be nice if her were given a chance to learn from them though. Last season can’t be counted. You’ve got to field a complete team to be able to judge. If we are healthy this year and he still is repeating the same mistakes then you have a case to suggest a replacement. Still doesn’t deserve people ripping him to shreds. I’d like to see you have someone come into your job and second guess every decision you made and post it for the world to see. Celtics fans used to be fans with class…
I like the team but we need some help at the point and either Theo needs to be healthy or we need another back up big.
As it stands, I think we win 42 – 45 games.
Add the above two additions and I think we win 50.
I also believe the chemistry that has been developing nicely over the last two to three years will really start to provide tangible benefits this year, i.e. convert into wins.
I agree with the posters who also acknowledge that Doc has to lift his performance. My pet hate is when he fails to ride someone who is clearly on a hot streak. Quite often someone will get on a roll and he will sit them down.
A lot of unknowns this year, but as with all pre-seasons, I have a lot of hope.
Bring on the Kool Aid !!!!!
Cheers
Aussie
Starting at the top, Pierce and Ray Allen both seem like they should be back to normal for the start of camp. Then again, you could have said the same thing last year, so there’s no guarantee. But if they are on the court for 78 games, it wouldn’t take much else to get this team into the playoffs.
Without consistent play at the point (and that’s far from a given)there will be no playoffs. Delonte West was far from perfect as a back-up point, but he is probably better than anyone the C’s will utilize at the position next season. Rondo is a work in progress.
I cannot envision the Celtics displacing any of the top squads in the East – Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto and Detroit. New Jersey will be stronger with the addition of Magliore, a healthy RJ and what might be the steal of the draft in Sean Williams. Orlando adds Rashard Lewis, who may not be worth 117 million but is as good as Ray Allen and bigger. The Wizards had the best record in the conference until injuries struck. Miami will be highly motivated after an off year.
And then you have the Bucks, who lest we forget, are returning all their injured players plus Desmond Mason and should be quite good. The Knicks added Zach Randolph, who is every bit as proven a scorer as Allen and is bigger.
I wouldn’t make playoff reservations just yet.
by lemonadesky on Jul 26, 2007 6:26 PM EDT reply actions
Celtics fans used to be fans with class…
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The Celtics organization used to conduct themselves with class…..
Last season can’t be counted, but the previous two and the ones with Orlando can. No defense in either place and it hasn’t improved at all. You could make a case that the defense is worse. Paul went from following Payton’s lead the first year to barely pretending currently. He was a solid defender under Pitino, Obie, and Carroll. I maintain that the last half of last year was disgraceful. I’m not on a witch hunt, PLAYA, but I see what I see. He’s made the same mistakes throughout his career, PLAYA. I’m sure Rivers would be great to have a beer with. He’s an excellent commentator and sees the game extremely well from a broadcast location. It doesn’t make him a good coach. His record speaks to that.
For the record, Mo, Doc would coach the Spurs to a .500 season. Duncan would have just as hard a time chasing guards on the perimeter as Perk does.
we boston fans mostly hate george steinbrenner but i would like to see wyc and the boys get agitated like georgie does when the team is losing- or go after the coach when he makes dumb moves. i’d also like them to spend the dough to make the dough and attract some players. as far as injuries, god bless theo and tony but i really don’t expect much at all from them.
Brickowski said:
BillfromBoston, you’ve had several posters from Europe tell you that Navarro isn’t a point guard, and I’m telling you that he’s not a point guard. If you want to believe he’s a point guard, I can’t stop you, any more than I can stop you from believing that the moon made out of green cheese.
Delonte West is twice the pg (and twice the defender) that Navarro is. Navarro is a fine shooter and an exciting player. But he’s not the “veteran point guard” that everyone seems to think the Celtics need.
—————————————————————————————
Sorry Brick, I respect the “several posters from Europe” but that doesn’t make their opinion more valid to me…they are basing their assessment off of his pure PG skills, not his ability to simply play at the one and serve as a playmaker next to Pierce and Allen..
I I was looking for the next Steve Nash I wouldn’t be looking at Navarro, but this team doesn’t need a pure ball-handling PG, they need someone who can move the ball effectively and shoot from the outside…
Im well-aware that he isn’t a pure PG, but he can DAMN WELL be put at the one if his responsibility is to play off of 3 main scoring options who will be handling the ball 75% of the time…
I know Navarro’s game, he’s capable of coming off the bench and playing at the one if there are other ball-handlers/playmakers on the court—-that’s what this team is looking for…Rondo is a pure PG, Telfair is a pure PG, neither of these guys is going to be allowed to call the shots and run the offense…the Celtics play a team offense which emphasizes ball-movement…Navarro can play on the court with Allen/Pierce as a “PG” just fine…has nothing to do with his abilities as a true PG who breaks people down off the dribble..
by BillfromBoston on Jul 27, 2007 12:09 PM EDT reply actions
Brickowski said:
Of course they won’t be healthy. Ratliff is likely finished. Tony Allen won’t be ready until November at the earliest. And of course, even a modest injury to Pierce, Ray Allen or Jefferson sends them right back into the lottery.
So a realistic prognosis would be 34-35 wins, especially since every other team in the Atlantic Division has improved.
—————————————————————————————
Realistic? You are basically projecting MAJOR injuries…yes, IF one or more of Pierce/Allen/Jefferson go down for an extended period of time, this team has issues, but expecting that to happen is pessamistic not realistic…more than likely all three play 70 games, missing 12 for various things…if they don’t go down together the team can soldier through a two-week absence
Defensively they have some good individual defenders who are part of the rotation: Perk/Powe/TA/Rondo are all plus defenders…rebounding CLEARLY isn’t a weakness on this team, nor is scoring…
I have no fears about the regular season success aside from catastrophic injuries…this is a 45 win team with REGULAR nics and bruises type injuries…the team defense must improve, but I expect it to with shortened rotation…
…now if we’re talking playoffs? The team needs veteran leadership at the PG position and it could use a defensive big man…i’d re-sign Kandi as insurance if no deal goes down going into TC…
by BillfromBoston on Jul 27, 2007 12:18 PM EDT reply actions
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