Long-term/Short-term: Ending the Jefferson Debate
by Jeff Clark on Jul 6, 2007 5:58 AM EDT
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PrintThere has been a great deal of electricity around the team this offseason and it has stirred a lot of passions around the core constituency of the team. Much of this has centered around the youth vs. experience debate, or the Jefferson vs. KG saga depending on which type of zealot you constitute.
So, let’s take a hypothetical look into the offseason for a moment and try and fixate on something else for a second….
Let us end this KG or Al debate and get Lamar Odom to play the 4 and go "Phoenix East" once and for all, why not. (read the rest after the jump)
There’s no great reason to believe this is probable, but it certainly must be feasible considering that LA/MN/BOS have all been hard to ignore during the offseason highlights. Nothing seems to be immanent on any front, but with the Vegas Summer League beginning all the usual players will be showing up to do some business in the dessert and get the Free Agent season in full swing.
I love Odom, perhaps my favorite to watch when he's in the zone. Odom instantly takes the ball-handling responsibilities off of Pierce in the half court. Rajon Rondo was going to need a year’s worth of seasoning to become a full time playmaker, so having Odom gives the team a "true" point-forward. The offensive/defensive balance in the frontcourt would be solid as well with Perk/Al/Odom being able to cover most matchups.
He has been miscast as the 2nd banana with Lakers and is clearly not the best fit with Bryant-if there is one. Odom doesn’t have the greatest perimeter shot, but he’s shown improvement and has somewhat been the victim of his early career movement between rebuilding teams. His offensive game is still very difficult to defend and he is a competitor when in the moment. Take a look at some of his games in the past against the league’s best.
Odom rebounds and defends extremely well in all the matchup situations this team currently lacks, perimeter defense from the frontcourt against face-up bigs. He is a deadly player off the dribble from 17ft and out and as a third or fourth offensive options...unbelievable.
Best of all, he's only 28 and was at his competitive best the one year he got to lead a young team OUTSIDE of LA, the Miami Heat...Odom's not made for LA, he belongs back home, (hey Rhode Island!)
In the last Olympics it was he and Shawn Marion who played the most consistently and both were able to adapt their games enough to anchor a Bronze medal finish. Those games were some of the most trying for any US team in world competition as a disturbing portion of the home fan base actually WANTED the team to fail...talk about pressure.
While that team was disjointed and doomed to fail from its inception, a Celtics team with Odom would be extremely interesting in the Eastern Conference for the short and long term.
Of course there is no way to know if this is even possible, but taking the available rumors and superstar whispers its not hard to see the three necessary teams having the matching parts to satisfy all parties.
A team like this would give the young bench players a chance to develop and decisions on their contracts can be made on a case-by-case basis. But by the numbers, the team should be able to support a mid-eighties payroll if it was competing for the ECF every year, which should be ample incentive for ownership.
With players like Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, Ryan Gomes, Tony Allen, and Rajon Rondo developing around 4 bona fide All Star caliber talents, (Allen/Pierce/Odom/Jefferson) the team looks deep and balanced between role players and their respective responsibilities. Most of the bench is still low cost for the current length of the star salaries.
Jefferson is due in a year and will likely get a 10-12 million dollar extension, but Rondo is under contract for 3 more seasons at rookie scale, Davis and Pruitt for another 4.
Gomes and Allen are going to be important decisions, but each could be retained for mid-level money or under in all likelihood and have proven to be solid team players who have good relations with management.
A solid 6 year run would be well in reach with a nice slow decline giving a winning team a chance to re-tool. Remember, winning teams don't have the difficulties that losing teams do. With all the talk around Celtic Nation about modern players not wanting to play in Boston, not much credence has been given to the fact that the team has just plain been bad for two decades.
Competitiveness and direction build the reputation of franchises, much more so than beaches and nightclubs. Winning players look for titles...hopefully this helps to unify some of the dissidents on this board who have been warring during what promises to be an interesting offseason.
The team isn’t done yet, that should be obvious from the signs throughout the league. Let’s review our options before taking sides.
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4 big salaries….that’s just not going to happen.
by TNCeltic on Jul 6, 2007 6:10 AM EDT reply actions
So, what do we give up to get him? Ratliff and a ham sandwich?
Why do the Lakers and Minnie decide to be so good to us?
by TedL on Jul 6, 2007 6:10 AM EDT reply actions
I like the Odom suggestion, and made it myself earlier. I think it only works with us as a facilitator in a KG deal.
Without looking at salaries, something roughly like:
Minnesota gets: Bynum, Gerald, Gomes, Kwame (expiring), Theo (expiring), future #1 (Lakers), get their own pick back from Boston
LA gets: Garnett, maybe a bad contract from Minnesota
Boston gets: Odom
It gives the Twolves young players with a ton of potential, and no long-term salary commitments at all. If it took Farmar or Crittendon from LA’s perspective, I’m sure they’d add them. We could add a future #1 if we had to. I think this basic framework could work well for all three teams.
wow Hobbs you really think highly of odom!!
let me see , we give up our highest draft pick that
we used and kept(green)also a #1 pick then we also
give up ryan gomes who is almost starter material with
big upside(im excited to see how much better he is this yr)
wait your not done , then give up theos awesome contract
which is so valuable words cant describe, just to scratch the surface
theos contract is insurance that if big al breaks out and
is on the allstar team this yr , we can resign him and or its
worth a lesser expiring contract and a vet pg.
do our players and picks and assets appeal to other teams
more than they appeal to celtic fans? thats the question
…then give up theos awesome contract which is so valuable words cant describe"
Wow. Use hyperbole much? If the contract was so valuable, I’m sure Danny’s socks would have been knocked off by now. Theo’s contract is a nice facilitator, but it doesn’t have a lot of independent value on it’s own.
As for the rest of the offer, we’re giving up: 1) a player with athleticism and no basketball IQ, who can’t do anything at an above-average level right now other than shoot; 2) a career role-player; and 3) a probable second-rounder, and if necessary, a first-rounder.
I agree with mcpu40, frankly, that this is probably lowballing the Twolves. I see it feasible only if Minnesota is committed not to taking salary back. Then, 3 young players, draft picks, and expiring contracts is a little more palatable.
Great Assessment Perk!
And isn’t Odom coming off a surgery or 2? Doesn’t he come with a warning label “injury prone” stamped all over the cover?
And we use all our chips for what…the consolation prize because we’re giving up on securing a defensive center?
No thanks.
by blceltsfan on Jul 6, 2007 7:26 AM EDT reply actions
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/marty_burns/07/05/yi.bucks/index.html
I think this is pathetic…and I hope he’s a flat out failure.
I wouldn’t worry too much about Odom’s smoking habit. He hasn’t been caught in six years, meaning he’s either cleaned up his act or become smarter.
Also, Brick, I don’t think there’s a set penalty for a third-time offender. When it was reported that Shawn Kemp had failed his third test (which was later found out to be due to a failed test), he was initially suspended indefinitely until he completed a drug rehab program (which only constituted a few days in Kemp’s case, due to the suspension being over a missed test). No idea what the league would do with Odom.
The mandatory suspensions only apply to “hard drugs”, like cocaine and heroin, etc. According to wikipedia, the CBA provides for a five game suspension for the third marijuana test (which seems consistent with the most recent suspension given to Cliff Robinson), but as always, wikipedia is to be taken with a grain of salt.
I like the team the way it is. Odom is a great player don’t get me wrong but, he’s didn’t help Kobe get past the front of Phoenix. It was Brown and Bynum that actually made the difference physical players. We don’t need more flare, we need people to do the little things to Win. That’s why great teams win its not about payroll. I watched last year every game after the allstar break an AL is will and be far Superior. Name on Bigs that could stop him after the allstar break, if you can than you weren’t watch the same game. That’s why they wouldn’t make the trades. Dominate big aren’t Jump shooters. Al does a multi-attitude of moves on the fly. He may not be TD but the last time I saw them play the Spurs were man handled by Boston. The play calling after the trip out West went to other players when they returned home, and he still produced consistently. Gomes well get the playing time he deserves with Al and you won’t be able to pick your poison when Boston steps on the floor. 17 Here we come ;D
by Sean0299 on Jul 6, 2007 8:06 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t think anybody is suggesting trading Al Jefferson for Lamar Odom. The idea, I think, is to pair the two, creating matchup problems for any team we face.
Big Al
Odom
Pierce
Allen
Rondo
is a very strong starting lineup. You’d hope to keep Gomes in any trade, and send out Telfair and a draft pick instead, but even with a weak bench of Perk/Tony/Powe/Scal/FA, that team will compete.
I like the idea, and if we can find a three-way deal to make it work, it’s something we should absolutely look at. The Garnett one seems like LA getting too much of a deal though, I would think IND would be more likely, with them unloading one of their terrible contracts and JO on the Lakers, getting a couple of young players and picks and Ratliff in return.
by scotthp49 on Jul 6, 2007 8:25 AM EDT reply actions
Roy Hobbs said:
“I don’t think anybody is suggesting trading Al Jefferson for Lamar Odom. The idea, I think, is to pair the two, creating matchup problems for any team we face.”
That is true, but frankly I beleive that Jefferson is on the block for financialk reasons and will be goine this summer— if not for Garnett then for someone else. They are too cheap to pay Big Al and Rivers doesn’t like him.
I predicted several moths ago that West would be gone, and I expect both Jefferson and Gomes to be gone before the start of training camp in October.
I still have not heard a peep about Jefferson’s extension or Gomes’ extension, and until I do, I will remain firmly convinced that Ainge is shopping both of them around the league.
Basically we’re trading for the 28 year old version of the 21 year old guy we just drafted and traded.
Except we also picked up Ray Allen…I guess that’s a pretty decent deal. I’d be happy if we got Odom.
by Robb @ CelticsBlog on Jul 6, 2007 8:48 AM EDT reply actions
Why would the Lakers do that? They are having enough trouble keeping Kobe happy as is.
Ainge’s target is still Garnett: it’s the old “Jefferson for a one or two year rental of KG” deal that has been under discussion for months.
Now that Phoenix is out of the running for KG, so is Dallas. Dallas didn’t really want KG, but did not want Phoenix to get him. The two remaining potential suitors are Golden State, which can offer Biedrins, and Boston, which can offer Jefferson.
Ainge will make no moves until he gets outbid for KG. Then he will look to trade Jefferson for Gasol or Jermaine O’Neal. One way or another, big Al may have played his last game for the Celtics.
what is this fantasy land? how do we still have all those guys and get odom?
by birdisgod33 on Jul 6, 2007 9:08 AM EDT reply actions
matchup problems, sure. But Odom needs the ball to be effective. Pierce needs the ball to be effective. Jefferson needs the ball to be effective. And to maximize Rondo, you want him to have the ball. That would be the upside of a guy like marion over odom – someone that doesn’t need the ball to be effective
by Cullain on Jul 6, 2007 9:08 AM EDT reply actions
I know the “Let’s-Make-A-Deal” premise is useful to energize a blog on a daily basis but the formula for success is draft your own, coach them well (therein lies an active debate) and be patient. Not “blog friendly” but a real plan
Thus if patience is necessary with young guys, then we shouldn’t be marching G. Green, R Gomes, Al Jef, T.Allen (even Telfair) too quickly to the trading block. If you believe G. Green has more upside than J Green (or Jian Lian), which I do, then we truly did not need another young guy. We haven’t gotten the potential from the ones we’ve got. Two years out of HS, can shoot the 3 and Slam Dunk champ. No one in their right mind trades that potential just because he hasn’t mastered NBA defense yet (let’s remember who’s teaching him)
I like the Ray Allen deal because all we really gave up was Delonte (who was one of those “assets”, not cornerstones, that Danny accumulated.) But going further would cut past the youth fat and into our youth bone.
Finally, I think all we are missing is a defensive big. (The veteran PG’s available are all variations of Dan Dickau) If we can get that from Ratliff this year, hold onto him and his salary, and then put that expiring money to Al next year the Celtics will not be the down-and-outers the pundits believe we are. But if we go willy/nilly to be extra relevant this year, we will be down-and-out for years.
If they get rid of Al Jefferson without getting someone awesome in return, there’s really no reason to pay attention to this team as long as the current management is in place.
by TNCeltic on Jul 6, 2007 9:34 AM EDT reply actions
The “awesome” return they are expecting to get is one or two years of Kevin Garnett. Is that “awesome” enough for you?
Let me make this clear. KG will NEVER sign an extension with the Celtics. He wants his ring, just like Grant Hill, who just signed with Phoenix for the veterans’ minimum when he could have gotten much, much more from other teams.
A team like this would give the young bench players a chance to develop and decisions on their contracts can be made on a case-by-case basis.
First, I think Odom is a solid player and you make a good case. But, this is the type of greed for big name vets that tears franchises down. We already have a very nice balance of veteran leadership, talented youth and a fairly flexible cap situation to re-sign them.
Further, I just don’t understand how Gerald is so expendable. Your assessment of him as “a player with athleticism and no basketball IQ, who can’t do anything at an above-average level right now other than shoot” could have been cut and pasted from a commentary on Joe Johnson when he was here. I would think that the reaction to having a 21 year old kid who is, by your own admission, an above average athlete (understatement) and shooter who only needs experience is that you hold on to him unless someone offers you an multiple all star in his prime with an undersized contract.
I just really hope that
1. The Cs keep Gerald and let him learn under Ray Allen, moving him to his natural position (SG) – this is too good an opportunity to pass up.
2. Doc gives Gerald the consistent minutes he needs to continue his development – this prospect frightens me since Doc’s rotations are based, at best, on a whim and, at worst, on a dare.
by Dorchester Jayhawk on Jul 6, 2007 9:47 AM EDT reply actions
There is no reason to believe that Jefferson is being shopped for financial reasons, you’re being a drama-queen Brick…
…and I don’t for a second believe that a winning team that is competing for titles isn’t going to lure new, younger free agents to Boston as the current stars age and come off the books…establishing a winning environment is going to allow the team to start recruiting again…something it hasn’t been able to do since the early 90s….
…oh, and I know for a fact that the team isn’t looking for a “rental” player…the obsession with the financial fears of this team is unfounded…the team has avoided MLE signinings because they are cap-eating moves that add players who aren’t true difference makers…you don’t add a mid-level veteran simply to upgrade a position to “adaquate starter” when the team needs to ID more cornerstone players-that’s just smart business..
Almost every owner is luxury tax avoidant, but when pushing for championships the financial forecast for a team changed dramatically…Wyc has stated on record that the team has money budgeted to support a much larger payroll if the team is contending, said it right on the Big Show about 6 months ago…
Watch what happens this offseason…this will be the best Celtics team since 88…
Brickowski said:
The “awesome” return they are expecting to get is one or two years of Kevin Garnett. Is that “awesome” enough for you? Let me make this clear. KG will NEVER sign an extension with the Celtics. He wants his ring, just like Grant Hill, who just signed with Phoenix for the veterans’ minimum when he could have gotten much, much more from other teams.
==
A: Yes, that’s awesome enough for me…if it means hanging banner 17…then yes.
B: Grant Hill is a greedy snake. Now that he’s made enough money, he’d play for ANYONE if he had a shot at a ring. First order of business for these players, make tons of money, fleece teams & fans, etc. When you can’t produce a ring for yourself because you’ve hampered the teams ability to sign other players because of your ridiculous contract, you opt out in the twilight of your career and play for anyone with a shot at a ring. Look at Karl Malone…ha ha ha…didn’t work.
Unless Brick is right about there being reasons BEYOND finances that the team is down on Jefferson, a move for Odom could makes some sense. But it will only happen IF the Lakers are going to be the destination for Garnett regardless of the C’s involvement. There is no way that Ainge will help facilitate KG to another team, as I remain convinced he wants him in Boston (is that what you’re implying is still in the works in your last comment, Eric, or do you think the team has really moved on from its Garnett dreams?)
If the Lakers include Kwame, Bynum, and Mo Evans along with Odom in their deal for KG (which seems perfectly reasonable to me) then they can take back Jaric from the Wolves (who Minny would love to dump, and would be a nice fit in the triangle) and Scals from the C’s (he’d also be a fit for the Lakers, and helps balance their roster big/wing). Minny gets Bynum, Green, Bassy, their own future 1st, perhaps another future 1st from the Lakers, maybe Gomes, and two big expiring deals in Theo and Kwame. C’s get Odom and Evans.
If Boston signs a cheap vet PG to share the position with Rondo, and signs Al to a deal starting at $11-12M, they stay under the tax line both next year and in 2008-09, even with 4 big salaries. Seems very doable to me (but again, it will ONLY happen if the Lakers are getting KG either way, and Ainge is just coming in after that’s agreed upon, to take Odom and give the Wolves more youth/expiring money. But I’m not convinced the Laker package is good enough to convince Taylor/McHale to move KG, without the C’s giving Green/Gomes/future 1st/expiring$$-type value for Odom first, and that won’t happen. So I still think it’s more likely that KG will end up in Boston for Theo/Al/plus, than KG to LA and Odom to BOS for Theo/Green/plus…)
I am at a loss of words…
mcpu40: why do you repeatedly target Grant Hill? is it personal – did you attend UNC? you have mentioned numerous times you don’t like him or his game – so you should be juiced he signed somewhere other than boston…
Personally I would never have selected jeff green – he is just not a top pick IMO – last yr I had him on my radar as someone I would spend a mid-late first on – but a top 5 pick? come on – he is just not an explosive enough player on either end to facilitate him being taken where he was. maybe he can become bo outlaw… WOW!
None of us know enough about YI and no one wanted B Wright. The risk associated with both those players is that we draft them and they don’t develop – and then three yrs from now where are we?
I like ray allen, and faced with the prospect of a roster consisting of a 3yr project (holding risk) and Wally world versus ray allen – I take ray everytime. And I imagine that ray allen holds some value during his first two yrs here, and we are likely able to move him for a early teens pick… Would I have preferred joe johnson etc.? yes.
Certainly this (allen trade) wasn’t my first choice, and since I don’t have any input over the construction of the roster, i can only evaluate this as is the team better w/ or w/o the trade – and I like this team better now; and like I said, I think the next two yrs will see us trade Ray and bring in someone else…
Can we please evaluate where we are and where we will be going?
Sna Antoinio — easy to make great picks when center and point are locked up…
DOnt forget about perk, he is so close to breaking out
and getting starter minutes (32 ) once he does his production
numbers will double to go along with his tough nose defense.
walton, lambeir rambus are all championship team players,
that teams would love to have. well we have perk a strong
shot blocking enforcing center. he only averaged 3 fouls a
game and some of them came from picking up dihkaus or telfairs
man after they were burned, why doc benched him with 3 fouls
for scali is anyones guess. ive seen games when perk had a
double double by third quarter then benched for scali so dont
ask me. but anyways perk needs to play alongside big al not
odom because perk does things to compliment big al and doesnt need
the ball so pp ray ray rondo and big al can get touches.
i dont understand why everyone here is holding Gomes, the most boring player in the NBA, who isn’t even that good, on such a pedestool(sp?). Yeah he’s a good guy and I would like him to be on the C’s because bla bla bla… I would rather have Lamar Odom any day of the weak. Its simple as that.
That said, I think we would be too good. It will never happen because this franchise has terrible luck.
by BigAlBeezy on Jul 6, 2007 12:00 PM EDT reply actions
TBreezy said:
I am at a loss of words…
mcpu40: why do you repeatedly target Grant Hill? is it personal – did you attend UNC? you have mentioned numerous times you don’t like him or his game – so you should be juiced he signed somewhere other than boston…
==
Good question…
I’m not targeting G. Hill…though I can understand why it may seem that way. I’m just sick of the overall NBA players’ mentality.
Hill can be lumped in with so many other players, injured or not.
The guaranteed contract is the thorn in many a team’s side.
It can be seen in the Yi situation right now as well.
Though he has no contract.
It’s just mind-blowing, to me.
Yi enters the draft, is selected, doesn’t like who selected him, and refuses to speak with the team.
These privileged athletes run the show. Period.
Kobe.
Malone quits Utah and signs with who?
The Lakers so he can ‘have a shot at a ring’.
Gary Payton.
Antoine Walker.
The list goes on, and it’ll never end.
Who loses?
You and me.
Love it!
I’m a huge fan of the player Antoine Walker thinks he is…
Theo, GG, picks to Minnesota, Odom here, Bynum, picks to Minnesota…KG to LA.
I like it. Can I take GG out of it? 2 #1s, $12 Million expiring, Bynum for Odom? hmmm…Lakers add Kwame (expiring) for a crappy contract?
2 #1s, Bynum, $20 Million in expiring contracts…
LA can make up the difference of what’s left. Theo and a #1 to help facilitate the deal and nets us Odom.
SOLD! Love that guy.
by HOOPS! on Jul 6, 2007 1:23 PM EDT reply actions
Case in point (he wonders why there’s a ‘lack of talent’ around him):
Bryant, the NBA’s leading scorer the past two seasons, complained about a lack of talent around him at season’s end, and said May 30 he wanted to be traded, adding nothing could change his mind.
Despite that request, the Lakers have made clear that trading Bryant isn’t in their plans. Bryant is owed $88.6 million over the next four seasons, but could terminate his contract in two years.
Right.
Walker is a poor example.
On August 2, 2005, Walker was involved in a 5-team, 13-player deal (the largest trade in NBA history) that sent him from the Celtics to the Miami Heat. On June 20, 2006, he won his first NBA Championship with the Miami Heat contributing 14 points and 11 rebounds in the final game of the series.
Dorchester Jayhawk,
You said of Gerald Green:
“Your assessment of him as "a player with athleticism and no basketball IQ, who can’t do anything at an above-average level right now other than shoot” could have been cut and pasted from a commentary on Joe Johnson when he was here."
Sorry, but no, it couldn’t have. Johnson has never been a great athlete; he always has been a skills/basketball IQ guy. Always. Even in college. The comparison is way off. Apples and oranges.
Green shows no signs of having the basketball IQ Joe Johnson showed in his rookie year. None.
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