The Butterfly Effect

Danny came out “smelling like a rose” ..he tanks last year but gets the worst pick possible and gets Allen who convinces KG to come here…he never gets a ping pong ball break and gets Telfair instead but parlays Theo into KG…uses the 15th pick-Big AL and gets KG…West,Gomes,GG etc are all fodder,what Danny did was take the 15th pick /AL and the 6th pick/Theo and traded for KG..over yrs Danny gets Scal,Raef,Bassy,Theo,trys to trade PP for Paul etc etc and now sits with a team that can win…UNBELIEVABLE…and it still might not work…lol..but we’re in the game

I glad we didn’t pick Oden. Can you imagine? No RAllen, No Garnett and no Oden? PP would have asked to be traded for sure.

Yes, we probably would have a combo of Oden and Jefferson, but we also would probably be looking for a wing to replace PP and that would have taken years to find the right/dominant one.

Building a championship contender is very hard this day and age. I am glad things turned out the way they did for the Celtics.

There is no rear view mirror on this year’s bus. Stop looking for it. The Oden news is sad because he seems like a GREAT kid. Maybe a routine fix but something about that old looking face of his would worry me. I would have picked kid-looking Durant for that reason (which is why I’m not an NBA talent evaluator).

I love your scenarios! It’s much more complex than first apepars.

What if the Celtics had traded Pierce after his playoff performance/meltdown against Indiana a few seasons ago? Remember him elbowing his defender at the crucial end of the game? They probably would have gotten Chris Paul like they tried to do. What’s the domino effect after that? They would still have Big Al. Chris Paul and Big Al would be a nice combo to build on. It would be a completely different scenario. They would probably have still traded Davis, but not to Minny. That would have been the start of the youth movement, and it’s fruition would have occured either last season or this coming year. I think the team would have been young enough so their record would be bad, and maybe they could have gotten the pick to land Durant. Chris Paul, Durant, and Big Al as the Celtics foundation would have been pretty sweet.

A LOT OF LUCK, Thats all I can say is A LOT OF LUCK, goes through what we have endeared. There’s never a right or a wrong answer to many things we try to do in life.

We can go back the last 20 years and say waht if….what if Len Bias didn’t pass away, what if Reggie Lewis didn’t pass away either….

Things happen for a reason, who knows why…

All I know is that “NOW” I’m very happy with our team. “TOMORROW” is a different day.. who knows I might be like oh crap an injury to one of the big 3

So for the moment I’m enjoying being a Celtic fan, because we’ve encountered too much bad karma….

An inspired piece of journalism that focuses on the “what-ifs” of the Ainge stewardship. Kind of reminds the “old-timers” of Red’s disappointment when he was FORCED to take Bob Cousy. It certainly wasn’t the player he preferred.

Or that Red drafted Larry Bird one year ahead of his availability with the idea that he might be getting a good (not GREAT) player.

Or the Dave Cowens selection when Red knew that Cowens was too small to play the center slot and didn’t have a PF’s game…a selection he agonized about.

Or when he needed rebounding and a defensive stopper that he would be getting a player that changed the game… in one Bill Russell.

Or closer to the point, the Alan Iverson deal that almost was. When doors close one often overlooks that windows can still open. It would appear, at least at this early date, that our past brought us to the realization that we needed to take bold action though it meant risking our future.

Nice article, Jeff, including the cinematic-referencing title.

It only goes to show, it’s rather pointless to look backwards and wonder ‘what if’. (But I kind of wonder whatever happened to that girl in the fifth grade that I had that crush on.)

I believe it was the movie that referenced the phenomenon, but whatever.
Nice job, Jeff.
Hey, what if Doc Rivers would just go away?
Sweet! I like that effect!

The big question is: Did Danny plan it this way, or did he just get lucky?

I believe in the old saying ‘luck is where preparation meets opportunity’. I find it hard to believe that Danny ever concocted the plan: “OK we’re building towards 2007 when we’re going to go after KG and RA”; but he recognized his opportunity, made shrewd moves to get KG and RA together and here we are.

My conclusion, which is not etched in stone, is that Danny probably would have been able to put together a team of this caliber at some point – maybe he could have done it sooner if he was more ‘lucky’ with draft picks/trades/signings – but I don’t doubt what he said, and was saying all along, that they were stockpiling assets to make a serious championship contender.

With the team that he has put together right now, I have no reason to doubt him. Green Kool-Aid for all!

Coulda shoulda woulda. Who cares? Lets move on.
Durant and AL would have been nice, however.

For what it’s worth, the movie took its title from an old science fiction short story. In it a futuristic safari guide takes wealthy sportsmen back in time to hunt dinosaurs; ones that were destined to die momentarily. A foolish hunter, ignoring the guide’s instructions, steps off the prescribed path, and crushs a butterfly, revising the future they return to.

yellow book.com

Well I feel like an idiot (for the first-time today). I didn’t realize Jeff had noted in his article, with a hyperlink to a pertinent Wikipedia page, the 1952 Ray Bradbury short story I went on to describe, needlessly.

The prospect of ending up with Yi and his decidedly unpolished and undeveloped game instead of where we are today is absolutely chilling.

I love this team as it’s constructed now. Think everyone is making too much of who is the 7-10 man on team is. Does it really matter? NBA championships are won with franchise players & we got 1 in KG. PP and RA are great supporting cast, rest of players are easy to replace if need be.

Now what I wanted DA to do 1st year out was rebuild. He should of traded PP and AW for draft picks and expiring contracts.

If he wasn’t going to rebuild then he should of kept AW and try to sign him to a reasonable contract or trade him at trade deadline for veteran such as an R Wallace type player.

DA tried to do both rebuild while winning. If we win a title this will be the 1st ever by a GM doing it both ways. So I hope I was wrong about this and I tip my hat to Danny for trying a different approach. Go C’s

Either the “Butterfly Effect” or “Survival of the Fittest”. You choose….

Some of you best stuff yet Jeff. You’ve been doing an excellent job of avoiding the more tired topics and coming up with interesting reads.

Now all things considered Jeff…was the Telfair trade now WORTH it? think about it… we got Theo’s contract which enabled us to dump Reaf and use the money to get KG. Also, if the blazers don’t make that trade,they have a different season with a different record, and maybe the ping pong balls fall differently and we get #1 pick. Maybe the sonics lose/win more or less games against the blazers and THEIR record changes, which in turn changes their plans and they keep Ray Allen, thus the Celtics are a whole different team. At least it kind of makes the Telfair trade look somewhat justified!

Can someone please tell me what the hella “Draft Promise” is? Why would a team ever do this? Is the premise “Don’t work out for anyone else and we’ll take you at pick #xx?”

Gotta give Danny the credit here. Luck or not, the man made all of the moves over the past several years and has put together a ‘real’ team for ‘07-’08. He always talked about acquiring assets. He always had his phone handdy and was looking to upgrade the team. Danny has taken a lot of heat on this message board. I think it’s time some people around here give him the credit because it is long overdue. Danny Ainge is the reason we have KG, PP, and Ray.

this has been the most provacative and hectic post-pre season ever.
we have had all kinds of scenarios to consider. i give danny some credit for that, especially when he so quickly resigned doc, and i said- ho hum -another bummer.

According to chaos theory, it’s impossible to know for sure if Oden would have suffered the same injury had he been drafted by the Cs. An entirely different set of circumstances would have been in place which might have led to a different outcome.

good point Real Large James, but Odens knee was prob well on its way to that injury im May, though

Can someone please tell me what the hella “Draft Promise” is? Why would a team ever do this? Is the premise “Don’t work out for anyone else and we’ll take you at pick #xx?”
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That’s exactly what it is. Why would a team do this? because they believe that if the player goes on the rest of his workouts he’ll raise his stock enough that they won’t end up getting him.

Theproblem of course being that if another player drops unexpectedly and have to uphold this promise. For anyone willing to complain about the Greene promise and the costing of Amir Johnson, this is probably the same reason Gerald Green slipped to 18 as promises were made and he kept sliding.

Ancient Red,
I’ve never understood why people say, ‘’Things happen for a reason.’’ They usually are referring to events for which there is no reasonable or positive explanation, such as people dying at a young age or natural disasters or even their favorite team losing the draft lottery.

I tend to think things happen because they happen. Bones break. There’s no great cosmic plan centered around ping pong balls falling one way or they other. The universe doesn’t care whether the Celtics win a championship. Life is arbitrary and capricious.

I’m with green bear. trading pierce for paul is the trail I would have picked. DOn’t get me wrong, I’m very excited about this year. It’s 2 years from now that I’m worried about. a young team with Crhis Paul, Jefferson, perk etc would have been fun to watch develop. One thing the Oden situation teaches us though is that there are no guarantees. any of these players can get hurt at any time. You need some luck to win a championship. we haven’t had any in a long while. draft day sure seemed like more of the same. But they say that you create your own good luck and that’s what danny did, he went out and made hisown good luck

The Rambis Clothesline said:
  The big question is: Did Danny plan it this way, or did he just get lucky?

I believe in the old saying ‘luck is where preparation meets opportunity’. I find it hard to believe that Danny ever concocted the plan: “OK we’re building towards 2007 when we’re going to go after KG and RA”; but he recognized his opportunity, made shrewd moves to get KG and RA together and here we are.

I believe this statement best portrays, in principle, what I believe.
1. When DA took over he judged the team he had was going nowhere. He decided to change the roster and rebuild thru the draft and player development to get a roster that he could improve with trades or thru free agent signings. If the player development worked well and he had a competitive team within a certain time period he would stick with that basic roster.
2. He then made trades, ‘Toine first, that we may or may not have agreed with, but that got the ball rolling.
3. He decided last year that we needed to go in a different direction. He decided to maximize PP’s remaining years and to do that he needed veterans.
4. He set KG as his primary target and this is where, as
The Rambis Clothesline said “preparation met opportunity” and where a bit of luck in the form of timing came into play.
5. He tried to get KG, but KG refused to come.
6. He made the draft day deal for Ray Allen. I don’t know whether or not Danny initiated it, but he jumped at it when he had the chance—-a good move in itself.—-I don’t think it was done as a lure to get KG.
7. At this time KG was still available. Other teams could have gotten him, but were unwilling to part with players or add to salary. They may also have been scared off by KG’s option year.
8. At this point guts and perseverance on Danny’s part, not luck or timing, made the KG deal happen. The key point was in Danny’s getting permission to talk directly with KG. The Wolve’s wanted to move KG and there was no reason for them not to alow this. After KG and Danny met KG started to look at the C’s in a different light and the deal was made. This was not luck. It was Danny against Tree Rollins again. He wanted something and he went after it. He was not afraid of the size of the objective.
9. With this deal done there was the problem of the bench. Danny decided to fill the spots with decent, not great, veterans for short contracts and minimal money. I’m sure he had targeted certain players and listed them 1 thru whatever. As the free agent market settled he picked House and the (can’t think of his name moment) Center. He then went after Miller who he thought could fill a limited role. He also had a list of players to pursue if Miller decided not to come here.
10. This is where the luck or timing or luck of timing came in to give Ainge an opportunity. Miller decided not to come and just as Posey was about to sign with the Nets Danny was able to jump in again. It was preparation that had Danny ready with the name of the player he wanted if Miller didn’t come. A bit of luck that Miller said “no” in time for Danny to get his guy, Posey.

From the day he took over Danny has done a great job of planning, preparedness and hard work to give him the opportunity to do what he did this summer. Just as important, Danny had the guts to make moves that many didn’t agree with. I don’t know what or if butterflies had anything to do with it, but I love it.

All I know is I like where we is right now.

Truegreen- Well said. Agree 100%

Well IF HE WAS IN BOSTON INSTED HE MIGHT NOT HAVE GOTTEN INJURIED IF U WANNA GO THAT FAR