Daily Babble: Time the Best Medicine In Orlando?

by Steve Weinman on Jan 16, 2008 11:00 PM EST in NBA Articles

A team starts the season hot. It cools off. Fans and media decide the team needs to get back to its original level of play immediately. Trade speculation commences. You have heard this one before, or so it appears.

After a 40-42 campaign and subsequent first-round playoff exit in 2006-07, the Orlando Magic flew off to a 16-4 start to open this season, largely on the strength of repeated superhuman performances by the man who could terrorize this league unchecked for the next decade and a half, Dwight Howard. Since the hot start, the Magic have gone just 8-12, to fall to a somewhat more modest 24-16 mark, still good enough to keep the Magic winning at a .600 clip and to keep the Atlanta Hawks four games back in the Southeast Division.

Nonetheless, the speculation has begun. Perhaps the Magic should sign one of the two prominent free agent power forwards out there in Chris Webber and P.J. Brown. Or maybe they should make a deal for a point guard. Or depth on the bench.

Or maybe, as General Manager Otis Smith has intimated will be the case, the Orlando Magic should do nothing on the trade front for now.

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The fact of the matter is that most teams aren't going to do what the Celtics are doing this year regarding single-season turnarounds. It takes time, and it takes gradual steps in order for an organization to go from being a doormat to becoming a power. In 2004, the team won 21 games and won the lottery. After consecutive 36-win seasons, the Magic returned to the playoffs with a 40-win campaign last season, only to be run out by the top-seeded Pistons.

A season ago, they improved primarily by letting their young players grow together. In particular, the Magic saw better play from youngsters Howard and Jameer Nelson, and Hedo Turkoglu took on a greater role than ever before. This past summer, the Magic went out and spent big money (too much in the eyes of some, although after 40 games, it seems fairest to say that the jury remains out on that particular issue) on free agent swingman Rashard Lewis to bolster the lineup.

Certainly, the contributions made by the newcomer have played a role in the Magic's improvement early on. But 'role in' is not synonymous with 'entirety of.' A far greater reason for the upswing in Orlando is the continued growth of many of the team's incumbents. Howard has picked his game up another level, averaging an absurd 22.4 points, 15.1 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game to go with his 59.7 percent shooting from the field. Just entering his prime at age 28, Hedo Turkoglu is having a career year, averaging 18.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. Even occasionally maligned fourth-year point guard Jameer Nelson's numbers have improved overall. Although his scoring average is down, Nelson is taking nearly two field goal attempts per game less than he did last season, shooting a better percentage (45.8 percent compared to 43.0 percent a year ago) and dishing out more assists (6.0 to 4.3 per game).

The great part is that there is no reason to believe that the core players on this Orlando team have submitted what will one day be looked upon as their best work. Howard's numbers have drastically improved every year, and he has already gained a reputation as a hard off-season worker determined to continue making his game better. The man-child is averaging 22-plus points per night, and in the eyes of many, he still has yet to develop a truly strong offensive game. He does most of his work on put-backs and dunks, and while Howard has done some work with a hook shot, he still has a ways to go with developing it as well as his away from the basket game. Given the work that he has put in to improve his rebounding, defense and offense at the professional level thus far, it seems perfectly reasonable to expect the 22-year-old Howard to keep increasing his offensive arsenal. When the man can consistently make teams pay for sending him to the foul line with abandon, and when he has just a semblance of a way to put the ball in the basket from 8 to 12 feet, he will be inordinately dangerous. While there is a well-documented overvaluing of upside and potential that goes in sports culture today, again, all one need to do is take a look at the progression of Howard's stats thus far, and the possibility that he could ultimately become a 28-18 threat in this league becomes legitimate. It is by no means a cinch, but it is a very real possibility.

Similarly, while the progress hasn't been to the same otherworldly extent as that of Howard, Jameer Nelson has developed over his first three and a half seasons in the league, and at 25 years old, he has a long way to go as well. Long faced with questions about his size, the diminutive Nelson has proved to be a gritty player thus far into his pro career. He is compactly built, finishes very well around the rim (especially with contact) for a small player, fears no one and is willing to kill himself to win on a nightly basis. Nelson is a heady player who played in a winning program at St. Joseph's and has the capability to keep growing. Whether or not he will ever become a franchise point guard remains a major question mark. But the man is playing on his first truly good team during his tenure in the Association, and he deserves the time to keep making progress individually.

Similarly, Turkoglu has been asked to play a bigger role than ever in the offense this season, and he has stepped up admirably. The 6-foot-10 Lewis has played well, but the Magic haven't seen his best yet either. In time as these players progress together, both 'Shard's scoring and rebounding figures should rise noticeably. Beyond Turkoglu and Lewis, both 28, the cast remains mostly very young. Keith Bogans has once again played well when given opportunities. J.J. Redick has been largely unproductive so far, but he still excels at one skill area, and his outside shooting will only be more valuable to Orlando as Howard becomes more of a threat. As the rest of the offense develops, a player like Redick will be useful in that he will help stretch the floor for the other options.

The fact of the matter is that when all is said and done, the Magic almost certainly aren't an NBA title team right now. The Pistons and Celtics are both clearly better in the East, and several Western Conference foes have the edge over Orlando. Further, this a balanced Magic team for which there isn't one fix-all solution that would take care of all concerns immediately. The Magic play well on both ends of the floor (8th in offensive efficiency, 10th on defense), and Stan Van Gundy is one of the game's brightest young coaches. The team isn't tied up in long-term commitments, as Howard, Nelson and Lewis are the only players on the roster signed beyond 2010. There will be plenty of time in the off-season and next year to make adjustments and tinker with the roster as the team's identity becomes more clearly defined.

But as of right now, this Orlando Magic team remains a very promising young group with the possibility of developing into a great squad a very real one.

So indeed, sitting back and giving that promising group time to grow into its own new identity might be just the remedy for the suits in Orlando right now.

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Comments

howard is a guy to build a franchise around and will only improve. lewis seems to me to be the problem. he’s a good numbers player,i.e. he gives you numbers, but his 7 rebounds in a game aren’t the same as the 7 kg will get. he seems to be laconic out there and a guy who does not scare you on defense or intensity. he still is more a west coast than a gritty east coast player. i also have been surprised at how little they have used reddick. he has his liabilities but the guy has an offensive ability and while no beast, has some smarts and grit.

by nazzbo on Jan 17, 2008 8:29 AM EST reply actions

Completely disagree.

Otis Smith is making a horrific mistake right now and it’s going to cost the franchise a minimum of three seasons of being incapable of winning a title, maybe more.

This is an inherently flawed basketball team. They need help in a serious way, the type of help you can’t buy with your MLE or a minimum contract. You need high draft picks or surpluses of trading assets or cap space.

Orlando have about 12m in expiring contracts right now – Arroyo, Dooling, Garrity. They also have JJ Reddick who still has value around the league. They also have the draft rights to Fran Vasquez but I doubt he has much stock these days considering his inconsistency and inability to stand out in Spain. So right now they have assets.

Next year? No not enough. They’ll have $50m tied up in the cap between 5 players – Battie, Howard, Nelson, Lewis, Tukroglu. With another $6m from Cook and Bogans which aren’t exactly easily tradable commodities at that price. And still you have an inherently flawed group.

The biggest problem for Orlando isn’t the lack of a second big. The biggest problem is the lack of penetration of the dribble, the lack of ingenuity, of creativity on the perimeter. They don’t have enough of that to win a title.

Even Houston had Vernon Maxwell in 1994. He’s better off the dribble than any Orlando player. They also had Kenny Smith who’s better than any Magic player off the bounce and they had Sam Cassell. This is probably the weakest team in terms of creativity on the perimeter over the last 30 years to win a title and Orlando can’t compare.

The simple truth on Jameer Nelson is that while he has improved he has been an utter disappointment. He is still far too susceptible to opposing defenses, who can take him out of the game at will. It has nothing to do with size, it’s about talent and he doesn’t have enough of that. He was playing brilliantly in pre-season, pushing the ball up the floor and getting the whole team running, slicing and dicing in the half court and looking like the threat of the bounce the Magic sorely needed … but he hasn’t been able to continue that. Instead he’s fallen back into the same road blocks he ran into during his last few years. Otis Smith should never have given that extension. I can’t blame him though, Jameer looked that good under SVG’s guidance during pre-season to have the potential to cost the Magic an extra 20-25m come next summer. Hasn’t worked out though.

They need a penetrator who can create off the bounce. They needed it in the summer and they need it now. If they let these contracts expire they won’t be able to get it for at least 3 more seasons, maybe 5 (unless father christmas pays a visit and they luck out). Otis has to be working those phone lines now and if he can’t get it done now, he has to get after it come draft day. These contracts expire … game over.

Otis isn’t exactly the brightest spark in the league. I don’t think he sees it. It’s going to cost him and it’s going to cost Orlando. They’re going to be spending the next 3-5 years wondering why they threw the chance of winning a title away ….

by Who on Jan 17, 2008 9:50 AM EST reply actions

Some Magic related thoughts (part one):

(1) PJ or Webber. Orlando should keep tabs on PJ because he’d be a great fit. SVG knows his game inside out from Miami and his defense/rebounding/experience would be huge in helping them matchup come playoff time. They only need about 20 minutes, PJ can still offer that. Avoid Webber like the plague, he simply isn’t an NBA caliber player anymore. Otis Smith needs to be looking but not too jumpy on the FA scene. There isn’t really anyone available that changes his team. PJ is the only guy, and I think he’s retired but not ready to say it just yet, like Antonio Davis went out.

It likely will cost Orlando this season but with Tony Battie coming back and with their combo forward lineup, the Magic can fill out the rest of the rotation on minimum contracts this summer. So any move Otis Smith can make should be a short term move because it’s likely to leave his roster unbalanced with too much money in the frontcourt and no way to improve the backcourt

(2) The issue of Nelson and his size. Well defensively this poses no problem where size normally comes into play. Nelson is a mini-ox. Nobody can back him down. Seriously watch Orlando play, Nelson’s a better post defender than any point guard offensive post player is. He reminds me of David Wesley. Even when old Wes moved the two guard most of the league struggled to post him up because he was simply better at it than everyone else because he spent his whole life there, and because he was stronger. I used to love watching Latrell Sprewell try to post Wesley, failed every time but by-gum Spree would take him there 5 times a game every game and never learn his lesson.

They also have that Dwight Howard lad behind Nelson so no significantly consequences defensively.

Consequences offensively? Yeah but they’d be overcome by talent if he had it. He doesn’t. That’s the problem. He’s simply not good enough. There’s lots of points in this league that can operate at his size. Nelson doesn’t have enough quickness or enough intelligence. I don’t want to slaughter the lad, but he isn’t the most creative point guard in the league. If option A isn’t there than he becomes worrisome and someone who desperately needs help before he makes a mistake. His only other option is to call for a screen or else you’re thinking turnover. Screen or Hedo coming up top and taking the ball from him. Too one-dimensional a player, and not good enough at his specialty. Not starting quality. Unlikely to improve to that point either.

Also his shot has been a worry this year. Quite inconsistent. If he could work that back up I’d have more time for him.

(3) Time to take away the baby’s bottle! That’s what Jameer is to Dwight. Nelson does all the leadership, and brings everyone together and keeps them on the same page. Dwight needed that coming out of HS, and to some extent he still does. But it’s time to realize it’s no longer a neccessity. The team can move Nelson and Dwight will step up and fill the vacuum.

by Who on Jan 17, 2008 10:22 AM EST reply actions

Some Magic related thoughts (part two – it said my comment was too long):

(4) SVG is doing a terrible job with Rashard Lewis. It’s quite upsetting. Rashard is a really talented post player. Yet I never see him in the post. Seattle has been posting him for years …. they should have been posting him more but I’ll try and let bygones be bygones ….. well Orlando lack any type of post offense outside of Dwight and SVG has said he wants more post offense, especially when Dwight comes out. They’re also struggling to get Rashard going. 2 2=

Stan has struggled with Rashard. He’s much better with a Lamar Odom or a Hedo Turkoglu. Guys who are more comfortable putting the ball on the floor. He hasn’t really figured out how to use Rashard yet, which is scary for the East. SVG is a smart and creative coach, I’d put money down on him figuring it out and likely this season.

Rashard is a really talented passer too. But if he won’t put the ball on the floor it just becomes hard to use that. One thing SVG has done well is moving Lewis to the top of the key (where he’s draining J’s like nobody’s business) in order to use his passing. At 6-10 he can see pretty much over anyone. He’s particularly useful when Dwight is being fronted, and the ball is reversed from the wing to the Lewis at the top of the key. Rashard just throws a bullet pass every time and Dwight gets an easy two. So they guy can pass …. but how do use that more often? Tough question for SVG

(5) I’d love to see Orlando get some more movement below 15 feet. This bugs me about every team in the league not named Utah. So few teams truly get bodies moving around in the paint. Dwight would be a beast if he could catch the ball on the move. He’d just jump and do that little hook of his, nobody would get to that.

Magic have become too reliant on Dwight creating against a post defender and double teams. Little help for the big man down low would be nice. There’s a reason why Booz can go at you all day, it’s because his teammates do a lot of the work in getting him his shot.

Tyrone Corbin. Jazz assistant. Wants to be a head coach. Hopefully he’ll ensure a second team that moves guys below 15 feet. He’s been linked with a lot of jobs over the past 18 months, I’m thinking either this summer or next and he gets his run.

(6) You know Orlando’s offense is cooking and about to have a big night when (1) Nelson pushes the ball, surprising that they haven’t ran more (2) When their offense has that weave outside of 16 feet. It’s so hard for a big PF to keep up with Rashard or Hedo when they’re moving and passing like that. Plus it gives Nelson much better odds of getting into the lane. Beautiful to watch when they get that weave going. Why don’t more teams copy the 1950’s Pistons offense? Ahhh Doug Collins we need you back in the league, your offense will work so much better with the rule changes. Sombody has to give this guy a job.

by Who on Jan 17, 2008 10:22 AM EST reply actions