Playing Time

Nice, well thought out post. I enjoyed the quotes that I have heard many times. Too often, fans’ notions of “who should play” are based solely on their affection for a certain player/s without any regard to how many actual player minutes are available each game. Your division makes clear, not everyone can play, no matter their skill level, real or perceived.

I think it is clear that TA, House, Powe and Davis are the top 4 off the bench at this point, with Pruitt and O’Bryant receiving minutes against certain teams or matchups or when there is foul trouble. Otherwise, there are simply no minutes left for anyone else, no matter how good they looked or people like them. We heard many of the same sentiments last year in all the pining for another big and backup point, with no regard to whose minutes would they take.

My personal feeling is that the culture of “the kids” contributed to this and being a Celtic fan during that time was mostly about projecting who would emerge rather than W’s, now it is completely different. I am sure everyone prefers the winning better in the long run, but I think it stymied the constant speculation that existed when there really was nothing else to root for, robbing some of what they enjoyed most.

One more note, even after winning it all, I still see plenty of thinly veiled shots taken at Doc for “not having a rotation” when in fact, he has more tools at his disposal that can work differently against different opponents over the course of 82 games. The holy rotation of say, 8 players, that many seem to crave, is more a symptom of not having anybody else worthy of seeing the court 9-12.

Doc has a deeper roster and uses it well, yet somehow it is still referred to critically as if he is just randomly trying anyone and everyone mindlessly. Funny how when Belichick uses different formations and different lineups depending on the opponent rather than a fixed game plan with the same personnel every game, he is lauded as a genius, but Doc is seen as unstable and unsure of himself.

I think Pruitt will get more than 4 minutes a game. Even assuming no injuries to Rondo all season, Pruitt should see closer to 6 -8 minutes a game. If Rondo turns an ankle or gets nicked here or there, Pruitt should start in his place, and will get major minutes. Chances are that Rondo won’t play the full 82, he just does not have the body to handle it.

I think the Big 3’s minutes will be slightly less than you are projecting, at least I hope that they are. We need them to be strong and fresh for the play-offs, and to develop as deep a bench as possible during the regular season.

Wow just noticed celticsblog is now on the SBN, pretty cool.

A decrease in garnett and pierce minutes (especially when up by 12pts or more) finds Walker minutes

Giddens and perhaps Walker will go to the D-league. Posey’s minutes will go to Powe, Tony Allen and House. BBD should also get more minutes based on his play during the preseaon plus the need to protect Garnett’s legs and Perkins’ shoulder. I also expect Pruitt to get 10-15 mpg, and if he keeps improving, that number will go up.

So you anticipate that 4 people or 25% of the roster will earn 0 minutes all season long? I think that’s unrealistic for the following reasons.

1. Injuries. The Big 3 and our other starters will not be healthy all year long. In fact since each of the big 3 is 30 years or older, I anticipate that their minutes will be lowered to promote their longevity and health.

2. Bad developmental plan. If the Celtics follow this plan, none of their youngsters will get development. And sending youngsters to the NBDL is of limited use and will be of limited duration. Although I don’t like Scalabrine, I don’t think he’ll get 0 minutes either.

3. Oversimplifcation. Although the quotes you cited may often have been heard, that doesn’t mean that they don’t have merit. And you’ll never know what you have until they gain some experience in games. Do you think Rondo would have been any use in the playoffs if he hadn’t gotten minutes and seasoning previously? It’s not as cut and dry as your minutes chart would suggest. Following that kind of gameplan for distributing minutes is too simple and doesn’t take into account many factors, some of which I mentioned above but a big one that you ignore is the value of playing the youngsters during garbage time to both give them experience and to avoid meaningless injuries to the starters.

I think Doc will go with four regulars off the bench – Eddie House, Tony Allen, Leon Powe and Glen Davis. I expect that to be the 9 man rotation.

Then on a game-by-game basis …. Walker to be called upon when the team needs more size at small forward.

I expect Scalabrine to be called upon when injuries happen, as a starter or bench replacement but hardly ever without injuries. I don’t expect O’Bryant to play. I thought Giddens would be the second choice wing behind Tony Allen before the season but it appears Walker is ahead of him for now. I don’t expect Cassell to play either.

If Pruitt continues his fine play in practices and whatever opportunities he ends up getting, then he could work himself into that Bill Walker area. Not quite in the regular rotation but just behind. If he continues to succeed from there then he may crack the rotation. To start the season I expect Doc to give Pruitt a few opportunities ahead of Sam Cassell but I think Pruitt will need to be excellent to stop turning back to Sam as the season goes on.

Pruitt really impressed me in pre season play. With him in the game it lets Eddie House roam for those open shots especially with what Pruitt has shown as a scorer. He also showed himself to be very good defender. I think he’ll be used alot this year and will be part of the regular rotation. I don’t see Giddens or Walker as part of the first 12, but they seem to have a future here, possibly more Giddens than Walker (because of Leon and BBD). Scals or O’Bryant will be the third man out, possibly depending on matchups (opponents 2nd team Center height). Against some teams I can see a second team of House, TA, Pruitt, BBD and Leon blowing people away despite the lack of height.

The Big 3 averaged 102 minutes last season. I’d expect those to fall to something around 96 minutes this season, not to go up to 106 minutes.

I also expect that Doc will be forced to play Pierce or Scalabrine at the PF position for some sizeable minutes. I hope he doesn’t need to do that, but it’s a possibility.

i hope we can limit KG’s minutes in the middle even more.
i expect at least 26 from perk but i hope to get 30 out of him most nights.
i seriously hope Paddy O works his way into 10 -15 minutes of playing time. if he does then that leaves 8 or less minutes for KG, Powe and BBD at the center spot.

looks like BBD is going to start the season ahead of Paddy O on the depth chart, but i bet he is being showcased.

I hope that Gino gets a minute of PT for each home game.

Only thing I would say about rotations, is that the end of bench guys(ie.,pruitt,POB,walker), still need minutes EVERY game! Even 3-4 minute stints are fine, but they MUST be one at a time mixed in with all but one of the starters!
We all saw the big difference between POB with the starters and POB with others from the bench. Big difference! Those kind of guys play with more confidence and don’t feel they have to do so much when put in a better situation, and therefore, usually cuts down their mistakes.
Later in the season when you need one of them to step up, they haven’t been riding the pine all season and get thrust into a situation that they’re totally unprepared for.