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15 Games In - State Of The Team

 Kgpowder_medium

Most years I try to follow a 15 game rule.  Meaning I don't judge the team till we have a good enough sample size and 15 games is as good as a number as any.  Two years ago I ditched the rule early because the team was that bad.  Last year I ditched it because the team was that good.  This year seemed like a good opportunity to bring it out again.  In addition, it helps to compare this year's start to last season's beginning.

Last year after 15 games the team was 13 - 2.  This year after 15 games the team is 13 - 2.  Nothing to complain about there.  There was some hand wringing by fans early this season because the team dropped the third game of the year and played from behind on a number of games.  Still, comeback wins still count the same as blowouts and the team has putting teams away earlier in games as the season has progressed.

My math may be fuzzy but by my count the margin of victory through 15 games last year was about 16 points per game in the wins (helped a bit by a 45 point thrashing of the Knicks).  This year it is down to 10 points per game.  Should we read anything into that number?  (my thoughts after the break)

Star-divide

I wouldn't be too concerned about it, but when you combine that with the number of slow starts and come from behind victories, I think it tells you a little something.

The general feeling I get is that last year's team absolutely had to win every game like their lives depended on it.  This team really, really wants to win.  It is a subtle difference but it is there.

They know they are the best team on the court every night and expect to win.  When teams come out swinging a little more than expected, they swing back and eventually put them away like they should.  It just isn't that desperate hunger to blow the doors off of teams from the get go.

Is that a problem?  I don't think so.  You could make the argument that they kind of burned themselves out last year and had to stumble through the playoffs a little tired.  The team isn't going 100 mph 24/7 anymore and maybe that isn't such a bad thing.  In fact, the team is getting to practice fighting through adversity without picking up losses.

The only fundamental worry I have is that this team could morph into the Detroit Pistons of the last several years.  One that does just enough to coast into the playoffs with the 2nd or 3rd best record, makes some noise in the playoffs but ultimately fails in the conference finals.  I'm convinced that those Pistons teams thought they could flip a switch at any time and win when they wanted to. 

I don't think the Celtics are at that point now, and there's no specific reason to worry that they will, but I need something to worry about don't I?

Speaking of which, what happened to the team missing James Posey?  So far, the defense hasn't suffered one bit and the bench players have taken turns stepping up with timely points to help us win games.  The true test will not come till the playoffs, but so far so good.

Another storyline was the new faces.  So far we've gotten exactly zip out of Patrick O'Bryant and the rookies.  It is early yet, but the bigger stories have been the rebirth of Tony Allen and the resurrection of Brian Scalabrine. 

For those not paying attention, Tony is now our 5th leading scorer and his attack-mode drives to the basket are a joy to watch (and something we were missing too often last year).  Just seeing Scal on the court contributing and getting his confidence back has been one of the biggest surprises of the year.

On the downside, the team seems to turn the ball over way too much.  Maybe they are just taking a few more chances because they know the defense can cover for them.  Maybe they practice defense so much that they feel less comfortable on offense.  Maybe working the bench players into bigger roles is throwing things off.  Who knows?  I just hope they get it together more as they get more practice.

Also, the free throws are an underlying issue that may come back to bite them if they don't improve.  We haven't seen a Hack-a-Rondo strategy just yet, but close games sometimes come down to the freebies.

The last worry is that the team may be walking that line between "swagger" and "cocky" a bit much for my taste.  Then again, when you are the best, you have to walk that line and sometimes step over it when necessary.

So that's it for "concerns."  There's always something to nit pick and work on, but for the most part this team is a force.  Once again they are at the top of the league in defense and right at the top of the standings.

The Big Three are doing what they do.  KG is the driving force of the defense and maybe hanging out on the perimeter a little more, but nothing to be concerned about.  Ray Allen has been hot and cold, but always seems to make up for bad shooting nights with heady play off the ball.  Paul Pierce is taking his rightful place among the game's best without taking away from his running mates - a difficult balance to maintain and one that he doesn't get nearly enough credit for.

Rondo and Perk have been predictably up and down, but seem to be picking up momentum as they go along.  Eddie, Leon, and Baby all know their roles and play them very well.

I look at the landscape of the NBA and I still see everyone else looking up at the Celtics.  Sure, the Lakers have improved and are doing great.  But just with the Celtics, it isn't how you start, it is how you finish the year.  The Celtics are the defending Champs and so far they are playing like it.

After 15 games I feel comfortable saying this team has what it takes to repeat.  Or said another way, "they are who we thought they were!"

Poll
Is this team as good as it was last year?
Yes
1083 votes
No
361 votes

1444 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments |

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Comments

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Looking from the outside...

…as a non-Celts supporter, you just get the feeling that they are a bit shy of their power of a year ago.

Let me try to explain in point form in no particular order:

  • This time last year I had the Celts rated a clear #1 with the Lakers #2. Those roles are reversed this time around.
  • James Posey — don’t underestimate what a glue guy like him does for a team with three stars.
  • That magic is gone. Last season everyone was in awe of what the Celtics had brought to the table. Suddenly three very hungry stars were unified in their cause to get themselves a title. That hunger, ever so slightly, must have diminished with that title win (within the squad). That awe and mystique has dropped in a big way (from outside the squad).

Those are just my thoughts from the outside, from someone that doesn’t follow the Celts as closely as you guys do. Now, if we were to get onto the subject of the Blazers…. ;)

mookie
www.asternwarning.com

"You've been warned...!"
A Stern Warning : http://www.asternwarning.com

by mookie on Nov 24, 2008 6:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

So you lose mystique now when you win a championship?
Makes no sense….

by thecaptain34 on Nov 24, 2008 7:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

…often the greatest source of mystique is the unknown.

"You've been warned...!"
A Stern Warning : http://www.asternwarning.com

by mookie on Nov 24, 2008 9:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Another way of describing this mystique and “the unknown” is plain dumb ignorance.

by no kidding on Nov 24, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mookie has a point

I was going to reply to Jeff by repeating the old saying that “A new broom sweeps clean.” Last year, that was the situation; there was super effort all year. This year, the Cs pull the fat out of the fire at the last minute half the time. That’s a big difference.

While it’s hard to completely describe the change after just the first 15 games, I too sense a kind of drop-off. I still say “TA ain’t no Posey.”

The question isn’t “Can we beat Detroit, orlando, etc.?” (Although I respect the LeBrons, and am somewhat concerned.) The question is “Can we beat the Fakers?” No way to answer that yet.

"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark

by Eeyore III on Nov 24, 2008 10:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Grade Incomplete

Still need to play Orlando home and away, Cleveland away, and Atlanta away.

Need to play the big teams in the West.

Of course, there’s that little game on 12/25.

Long way to go until even that game.

There might only be two good teams in the NBA—us and the purple.

12/25 should be interesting. But if the C’s keep improving, and they are already playing well, 12/26 might not be a happy day for Jerry West (I know he’s not with the L’s, but he did show up at the WCF trophy ceremony, and cried, for god’s sake).

by William_Ayers on Nov 24, 2008 7:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

so far so good

Jeff,
  Fatherhood has not effected your work here….good job…we could use PJ for the playoffs so let’s get Joe Smith instead…TA&Eddie could use some support ,so maybe a Marbury,Stackhouse type guy???…we’ve got time and options

by Motown on Nov 24, 2008 7:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

slow starts...

Good article.

I think part of the slow starts can be due to the fact that Doc told the big 3 to not report early to camp this year like they did last year combined with the fact they didn’t get nearly as many minutes in the preseason as they did last preseason. So maybe the starters were taking a little bit more time to gel this year. The past 2 or 3 games the starters have gotten off to a much better start so maybe they are starting to hit their stride along with Rondo being much more aggressive it is helping the first unit tremendously at the start of the game.

Also you have to take a look at the schedule. The Celtics played a brutal 8 games in 12 days stretch and they have played the most games in the league. They have already played I think 5 back to back games! If I remember correctly I recall the schedule being much more kind to them to start the season last year.

by JBcat on Nov 24, 2008 7:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pretty accurate assessment.

I think you nailed how most people are assessing this team right now Jeff but there might be a bit of revisionist history going on as to how well thought of the Celtics were after just 15 games last year. Last year at this time across the league I thought the consensus was that the Celtics had played only 3 good teams having lost to Cleveland and Orlando on the road and beaten Los Angeles at home.

When they played Denver that was one of the Nuggets first games together for Melo and AI. Washington to start the season was considered a good team but Arenas went down just a couple of games later. They beat Jersey and Miami twice in that time and by the 15th game it was pretty clear both of those teams weren’t that good.

Everyone who was looking at the Celtics nationally were saying they lost the only 2 tough road games they had played and as yet still had to do a west coast road trip and play some of the iron out west before they would be considered truly tested. It was exactly at this point of last season where the team then went on an 18 wins in 19 games streak that quieted the doubting Thomas’ around the league regarding the pedigree of last year’s team.

This team, on the other hand, has played a bunch of iron in the league, played the most games in the league, through the first 12 games had one of the three tough strength of schedules in the league, played 5 back to backs already, and played 8 games in one 12 day stretch and yet has the same exact record.

To me I find that more impressive and I think it speaks volumes about this team considering everyone is playing their best this year to knock off the champs rather than just going out to face this new fangled just thrown together bunch of All-Stars like they did last year. I think it makes this year’s fete much more impressive.

by nickagneta on Nov 24, 2008 8:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

excellent points nick

I did neglect to mention the schedule – which makes this team’s early season success that much more impressive

nice catch

by Jeff Clark on Nov 24, 2008 8:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

This team is better than last year. One of my reasons? Tony Allen. If he keeps up the way he’s been playing, then he’s better than Posey. Rondo is another reason as well…. so far. Let’s see if he and Tony can keep it up.

by Bankshot on Nov 24, 2008 8:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

i don’t think it’s as good as last season…IT’S BETTER !!!!!!!!!

by makaveli on Nov 24, 2008 8:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

oops

forgot that option on the poll – my bad

by Jeff Clark on Nov 24, 2008 8:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like the minutes being played, as well as the second unit performances. Turnovers are troublesome. I don’t quite understand why they’ve been so turnover prone. Free throws are about ready to send me over the edge.

Regarding playing the so-called ‘power teams’ of the West, they’re almost all gone. Dallas is weaker, San Antonio is hurt, Utah is starting slower, and Phoenix is on the other side of the mountain now. The Denver game here was a fluke. We lost, they didn’t beat us. The Lakers are playing great, but it’s a long season.

Regarding the West, everyone always says that the teams in the West will beat each other up in the playoffs. Last year the Lakers cruised through the playoffs. Unless the teams of the West step up, or the Lakers begin to weaken, they should cruise again through the playoffs.

Barring injuries, this team this year is better. A much better second unit. Last year we counted on Eddie and Posey on the second unit. This year we get to count on all five guys on the second unit.

by amenhotep04 on Nov 24, 2008 9:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Even Better Now

The C’s are better.
The Big 3 are better WITH EACH OTHER.
Rondo and Perk are both better at their jobs – Perk even having his number called on offense and getting it done. Perk can’t woof and get away with it like KG
The bench has legitimate NBA inside scorers (Leon) and outside (Eddie).
Tony Allen is offsetting the loss of Posey. Posey was smarter on D but Tony’s hands are as fast as anyone’s.
The 10th guy, Scal, has played his way back into the rotation and does give us a different skill set (annoying D, 3 pt shooter, pick setter). A 10 deep team is good for the long run.
Finally, the team defense concept is deeper in each man and …
FINALLY, finally, the attitude is remarkable. Guys hustling in the 4th Qtr of blowouts. Just because its the Celtics way. Make a good play up by 20 with 1 minute to go and Garnett is watching and so everyone else is too.

by Wildblu1 on Nov 24, 2008 9:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Correct Me if I am wrong

I thought you had a 20 game rule? I would like a “fact check” on that Daddy Day Care

Nice assessment however. I think TA is playing particularly well and I noticed the knee brace, the knee wrap and everything was completely absent last game. He is quick.

My biggest concern has been eliminated in the last three games and that is Rondo can actually make layups and take shots. He is looking great.I think Doc put him on the right track (hat tip to Doc) without letting him slip too deep into a pattern.

“The resurrection of Scal”???? Ok……..ok…….. I’ll let it slide…….. but don’t tell Jesus Shuttlesworth that you used Scal and the Resurrection word in the same sentence or perhaps the stone may roll back over and cover back up the entrance to the Scal cave.

Peace

Is it Soup Yet?

by Master Po on Nov 24, 2008 9:49 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

wow, was it 20 games?

I must be getting old. Oh well – I like 15 games better. I don’t have a long enough attention span to wait 20 games.

by Jeff Clark on Nov 24, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, 20 games

I knew at the time you could never wait that long. It’s not an attention-span issue, it’s that you owe us all a duty to give us the real low-down. ;-)

"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark

by Eeyore III on Nov 24, 2008 10:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As usual

Master Po brings much wisdom and knowledge. I believe it was a 20 game rule you have been talking about the last few years Jeff. Of course, lack of sleep due to late night feedings to can do that to new papas.

by nickagneta on Nov 24, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That damn hand-clapping routine.

I wish this article hadn’t used a photo of that objectionable pre-game, talcum powder hand-clapping routine of Garnett’s. It’s the one thing that truly bugs me about him.

I know it’s a small matter, but it’s such an insulting, low-class way to publicly treat other members of the Celtic organization. I know we hashed this out a good deal last year, but the routine totally annoys me.

by no kidding on Nov 24, 2008 9:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

TP for TA

TP (salmon and mashed potatoes) for TA for stating that he was and clearly is better than Posey.

Tony Allen > Dearly departed JP

by Birdbrain on Nov 24, 2008 10:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

C's Better

I think the C’s are a better team this year. The starters are not as effective early on as they were last year, but they are now rounding into form as Rondo has started to attack on a consistent basis. The difference that makes them better is the bench. The bench as a unit is doing a better job than last year’s bench. I think other players have matured, improved their games and are playing more like pros. This has taken over for the Posey factor. Yesterday’s game showed the intensity and passion of the second unit even at the end of the game when it was already decided. Despite the lead they continued to attack and showed much more life than the Raptors. The second unit even outplayed the Raptor starters. We have seen this team outplay our Eastern Division rivals. The Cavs have played them best, but I think we are the better team. I’d like to see how we do against Western Conference contenders. Baby and Powe have been great against bigger opponents and some very good ones. I don’t see backup point as an issue any longer. My main concern is whether or not we need a big to take last year’s role of PJ Brown. McDyess would have been a nice addition, but Scals is now starting to play the way we expected him to when he came over from NJ. I think he now understands how he can help this team. He is an excellent defender both on his man and as a team defender. If he stays within himself, which he has done so far, offensively he might be that “X” factor that we need.

by TrueGreen on Nov 24, 2008 10:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

This year’s team is even better than our record. They seem to have an on/off switch that they didn’t have last year. It’s always on for the big games. I don’t mind this. I think they can raise the level and kick some butt when they need to. I do think that we are better than last year.

by moiso on Nov 24, 2008 11:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The Second Unit ...

I really like the second unit. They play together with purpose.

And, they have established their own identity _ they play with a certain style. They remind me of the second unit of the old Sacramento team that battled the Lakers for the WCF.

I’m a bit nervous about the 12/25 game, though. I live in So CA and ALL my friends root for the Fakers. They all tell me that the Fakers will win it all in 2009!!!! A Celtics loss on 12/25 will just further their claims!! Uuggghhhh!

by TheGreenThumb on Nov 24, 2008 11:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Still think they're better

I came into this season thinking this team would be better than last year’s, and that they have a decent shot at 70 wins. 15 games in, I’m even more confident in that assessment.

The Cs have started this year the exact opposite way of last season. Last year they were like this year’s Lakers, coming into the year at 110% and trying to leave their footprint on necks around the league. By the Texas Triangle road swing the team went into conserve mode, and they seemed to have trouble ramping it back up for the playoffs.

This year, the Cs opened the season like it was training camp. Only Pierce seemed to really come out blazing, and KG almost seemed to play himself into shape as the season has gone along. They are just now starting to ramp it up, but they are doing it the right way…the starters are playing better and giving the bench leads, and the bench is holding it enough for the starters to rest.

I think the Lakers being on a mission this season is one of the best things that could have happened to this Cs team. Unlike the Heat or Pistons of recent years, I really think these Cs are historically good. And having teams like the Lakers (and to some extent the Cavs) to push them should just help them to reach their level as opposed to getting complacent.

by drza44 on Nov 24, 2008 12:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

good post ^^

I feel we are a team much better prepared to make the title run this year. drza makes great points about LA vs Bos so far this year, it really is the best case scenario for us.

Aside from all that, I have to agree with the TA praises. His ability to get to rim is just something that we didn’t have last year off our bench. His defense is top notch right now too, worthy of a 2nd team mention IMO. And lets all give Scal a hat tip for being the pro that he is. His ability to hit the open three and guard both the 3 & the 4 has made Posey’s departure an after thought.

My only concern is up front. We need another 7 footer for the playoffs, and Paddy isn’t the guy.

by D Dub on Nov 24, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it,s a new year-better or not- who knows-the real test will be banner 18. tony is better and baby is better and rondo might be better, and scal looks better now. the big 3 seems to be playing less so who knows thereb but there is no dropoof . same with perk.

by nazzbo on Nov 24, 2008 5:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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