The NBA 2010 Free Agent Class and Who's Shopping
This week the New York Knicks made two trades to get rid of some hefty contracts and to free up some cash for the 2010 free agent off season bonanza that will be occurring. Earlier in the year the Detroit Pistons moved Antonio McDyess and Chauncey Billups for a very large expiring contract in Allen Iverson that, coupled with Rasheed Wallace coming off the books, creates tons of cap space in the Motor City for next off season and beyond. We've heard an awful lot about that 2010 season with LeBron being the biggest prize, but after reviewing everyone that is available, that off season is really about so much more than just "Will LeBron choose New York or Brooklyn?"
Here's a list big name and potential difference making free agents that either will be available or could be available. I am only listing unrestricted free agent, early termination options, and player options as the restricted free agents just don't seem to move much. By the way, there's a lot more players than these that will be on the market that year:
- LeBron James
- Amare Stoudemire
- Chris Bosh
- Dirk Nowitski
- Joe Johnson
- Ray Allen
- Tony Allen
- Amir Johnson
- Kelenna Azubuike
- Tracy McGrady
- Yao Ming
- T. J. Ford
- Marcus Camby
- Dwayne Wade
- Udonis Haslem
- Richard Jefferson
- Michael Redd
- Tyson Chandler
- Shaquille O'Neal
- Steve Nash
- Raja Bell
- Brad Miller
- Manu Ginobelli
- Matt Harpring
- Roger Mason
- Steve Blake
- Joel Pryzbilla
- Ben Wallace
Also, These players have player options or ETO's for the 2009 offseason but could elect to wait another year, though for many if not all, that is unlikely:
- Mehmet Okur
- Zydrunas Ilgauskas
- Anderson Varejao
- Carlos Boozer
- Kyle Korver
- Jermaine O'Neal
Now some of these guys may not elect to opt out or I could be wrong, and/or missing someone(if so let me know), but that's a fairly extensive list of major NBA talent.
So who could be major players from teams that year:
- Atlanta - 3 players committed for around $20 million
- Cleveland - 4 players committed for around $20 million
- Detroit - 3 players committed for around $15 million
- Golden State - 8 players committed for around $36 million
- Houston - 3 players committed for around $11 million(if Yao opts out otherwise 4 at $29 Million)
- Los Angeles(C) - 4 players committed at around $29 million
- Memphis - 9 players committed at around $40 million
- Miami - 4 players committed at around $14 million(if Wade opts out otherwise 4 at $31 million)
- Minnesota - 6 players committed at around $30 million
- New Jersey - 9 players committed at around $44 million(though if they move Carter as expected for expiring contracts that number is 8 at $28 million)
- New York - 4 players committed at around $23 million
- Oklahoma City - 6 players committed at around $23 million
- Phoenix - 4 players committed at around $20 million(if Amare opts out otherwise 5 at $37 million)
- Portland - 7 players committed at around $25 million( if Pryzbilla opts out otherwise 8 at $32 million)
- Sacramento - 8 players committed at around $37 million
- Utah - 6 players committed at around $36 million
*Note* - I checked these numbers against 3 different sites but some of this summer's free agent signings may have not been there so all numbers are tentative and could be off. Also, remember that none of these numbers take into place slots that would need to be counted against the cap for non-rights waivered players as well as minimum salary holds for player slots totaling 12 players per team. Lastly, remember tht teams will have to add on two and maybe more first round guaranteed salary slots as well that, if they are near the top of the draft could mean a decent amount of space eaten up.
Now several places are forecasting a salary cap at around $64 million for that off season so there could be a lot of money being thrown around that year and the landscape of the NBA as we currently know it could be completely altered that summer. There could be an unprecedented and historic amount of player movement that could instantly turn the "haves" of the league into the "have nots" and vice versa.
There is already talk of teams like New York and New Jersey, whom most pundits agree are going to be fairly bad teams this year and next, looking to instantly add LeBron and title hopes. Then there are teams like New York and Detroit who might be looking to add two superstars. Also, if a team, like Dallas, who is not listed above, were to move large contracts, continuing the example like Josh Howard and Jason Terry, for a large expiring deal, say Ray Allen's, then they would instantly become very large players in all this. Lastly, remember that 2010 is still a very long way away and things could change dramatically from now until then especially with free agents like Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, and others coming on the market this coming summer that could completely eliminate a couple or more of the above listed teams.
It does make for some interesting speculation and set up the Celtics for some very interesting trade ideas next year as Ray Allen's, Shaquile O'Neal's, and some other players' expiring deals may become the most sought after commodities on the market. Rather than players to enhance a team the philosophy looks to be changing where teams will be looking to dump long term deals and pick up expiring contracts for better positioning that summer.
Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.
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nice job again nickagneta
I formatted this a little and added it to the front page for others to see
by Jeff Clark on Nov 24, 2008 8:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
the new CBA
we know that the CBA will be renegotiated that same year – do we know (timing-wise) if the free agents will be able to take advantage of any new rules? I would assume so. I think that is why LeBron’s agent set this up in the first place – to make the best move possible once the rules changed. That could be an interesting sub-plot.
also, as a side note, I think someone like Richard Jefferson stands to make a lot of money from whomever doesn’t land the big three of LeBron/Wade/Bosh
by Jeff Clark on Nov 24, 2008 8:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I concur, I really feel Joe Johnson is the player we should be after,I just don’t know how Atlanta would be able to keep Joe or how are we gonna be able to entice JJ….He won’t be second fiddle to KG and PP since he is the future of the franchise…..How i wish we did not let JJ go.
by bopna on Nov 24, 2008 9:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is....
that considering that because of the salary position the Celtics will be in, even though they will be under the cap, the slots that will need to be set aside to fill out the roster put the Celtics extremely close to the cap, or maybe a few million under it. Joe Johnson will command a max pay contract. The Celtics will be able to, at best, offer a fully loaded MLE contract. That’s not going to get it done.
I listed 16 teams that could be contenders for major free agent signings with maybe three or so being able to offer two max pay contracts. That’s 18 max pay contracts. But I’m going to knock that number down to 12 because the 2009 free agent class may make some clubs unable to deal in the summer of 2010 and because of rookie contracts, extensions to RFA’s and slots needed to be considered held open for minimum amounts that a third of those will probably disappear.
So who’s worthy of max pay contracts?
LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Amare, Dirk, Joe Johnson, T-Mac, Yao, Manu and Chandler are possible. Nash, Redd Jefferson, Shaq, Ray Allen, Miller, Ford and Pryzbilla will probably command more than the MLE per annum.
That’s probably going to leave the Celtics looking at trying to re-up Tony Allen and offering the MLE to a mid level type guy, talentwise. Of course let’s say the Celtics pry away Jason Terry and Josh Howard from Dallas for Ray Allen so that the Mavs could make a giant splash in the free agent market then all the Celtics might need is a Tony Allen re-sign and a mid level talent guy.
by nickagneta on Nov 24, 2008 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ray Allen for JJ?
Specifically, Speedy Claxton and Joe Johnson for Ray Allen and Bill Walker/Giddens. Checks out on ESPN Trade Machine.
I would NOT do this trade this season (don’t fix something that ain’t broken), but what about in ‘09-’10?
For Boston, this move is about the immediate future. If we have JJ on our team going into the summer of ’10, does that allow us to resign him without cap restrictions with the Bird exception? We get a similar caliber player to Ray, but younger and still in his prime while Ray will be on the decline in 2 years. Essentially, I believe it keeps us on this competitive level for longer.
For Atlanta, they dont acquire any extra $ on the payroll, but add their choice of Bill Walker or Giddens for the future. Would that be enough? What if a 1st rounder was included? I think Atlanta would have to be in a position where they don’t feel they can contend for a title to complete this.
What do you all think about this?
Great post nickagenta!!!
by action781 on Nov 25, 2008 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who Is DA after
that is the BIIIG question, surely he is after someone from this FA class…I won’t even think about Lebron as he will either go to NY, the Nets or the Cavs…..Wade has said he will re sign with Miami…..so who are you after Danny boy,
I hope winning the next 2 championships will entice some of the other good FA. I do know one thing though, there will be some big market clubs who would be sore losers at the end of summer 2010
by bopna on Nov 24, 2008 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
should be wild
Meanwhile, it’s going to be a bummer for guys coming into free agency next summer.
Nicely done Nick
by redzdeadbabyredzdead on Nov 24, 2008 9:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
What if we raise #18 this year?
Doesn’t that change things for us a bit for 2010? I gotta say that ability wise, I think Paul, Ray and Kevin can play at a high enough level to raise 19 – 21 as well. these guys have a lot left in the tank.
If we are coming off repeat (or 3peat) titles, I would have a hard time stomaching a Ray Allen trade. And I don’t think we can ever trade KG or Paul. I see these guys making fair deals with Danny to stay together and free up enough cap space to add another high$$ player in 2011.
by D Dub on Nov 24, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
2010
I believe I read where Wyc said he wants the “Big Three” to retire as Celtics. But this is beside the point. The way teams are breaking themselves up and positioning themselves to maybe get a premier player in 2010 just doesn’t make much sense. For instance, trading Ray Allen for salary cap relief makes no sense. No one knows what will happen between now and 2010. Also, decimating your team to get one LeBron, Wade or whatever won’t do the trick. The C’s have shown you need three high quality players to win. You also need a bench. I think Danny has been prudent in his decision making. He could have signed Posey, decided not to, but it wasn’t to prepare for 2010. If he signed Posey he couldn’t have signed House and TA and they are proving, so far, to be big. Danny did decimate the team to get KG and RA, but this was a deal of the moment. When he did this he not only didn’t have a bench, he hardly had enough players to suit up for a game. As said before, even with the “Big Three”, it is the bench that is all important in the overall product. Thus, making moves now, only to prepare to get a big name player in 2010 (which might never happen), just doesn’t seem to be a good way to manage a team. But I like the idea of other teams doing that. It just makes us better now.
by TrueGreen on Nov 25, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't Worry about 2010
The Celtics should be more concerned with setting themselves up for 2011, 2012, and 2013. This team, as constructed, can contend for 2 more years. They shouldn’t go crazy trying to break it up just for a shot at a big 2010 free agent. Some big names could be available by the time Paul and KG’s contracts expire. Perhaps a fully polished Kevin Durant?
by ChiefDK on Nov 25, 2008 12:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think anyone is advoacting radical change
As a matter of fact I don’t think it’s even possible for the Celtics to entertain thoughts of a 2010 free agent unless it’s resigning Ray Allen. But Ray will be two years older then and if Danny could obtain a high quality player or two in exchange for Ray’s contract because he doesn’t feel that he will re-sign Ray for what he will want, then trade him and keep the rest of the team intact.
As I suggested, Dallas could want to dump salary to start their team over thinking they may lose Dirk. If so a Ray for Terry and Howard trade works perfect for the Celtics as they get younger and keep quality in the starting rotation with Howard and have the backup veteran PG they will be lacking at that time in Terry. The face of the team would change very little as Rondo, KG, Perk, PP, Powe, and Tony Allen(if resigned that same off season) would still be around.
Now that is the trade I would love to see but I am sure that more are out there that could be done to bring in a quality 2 guard and other help, keep the core of the team together, and keep championship hopes alive.
I think Ray’s contract might be one of the most valuable and sought after trade assets this off season because a team wanting to go after a super-duper star in 2010 would love to have Ray’s $20 million coming off the books at that time.
Look at New Jersey. They would probably package Vince Carter and Josh Boone for Ray’s contract to ensure they have the ability to get LeBron and some else.
by nickagneta on Nov 25, 2008 1:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Crazy? Yes it is But.......
DA did say The Celtics made a big error in not Trading the big 3 in the 80’s while they still had value, which leads to my point about re-loading to sustain Championship runs for the next 5 years plus! In my opinion as crazy as it sounds…. We should reload around PP again! Ray will have the most value with his big Ex contract, We could get a great 2 for 1 from say Dallas as mentioned in another post, Then Lets get even Crazier! KG sighned a great contract extension for us but what would be his Value with that bargain contract next year? Say If Cleveland knew they were going to lose Lebron and get nothing out of it? If Danny Ferry Brought in KG?? It may all be a dream but remember so was PP , Ray Allen & KG… And we never thought DA had enough to get KG but we got him! So I say lets get our second ring this year then re-load! Whats your best case scenario ??
by luckyIrish on Dec 10, 2008 2:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...
Maybe, just maybe, KG, Truth, and Rayray can convince Shaq to come over for 2 years next year for a cap friendly salary. Then, in 2010, Boozer is intriguing. So is Bosh. We all know that neither lebron nor Wade will come over. So, maybe Amare or Bosh and resign Rayray with the intention of helping the C’s out in terms of salary. And Maybe the 2010 roster could look like this:
Rondo, Rayray, Truth, Boozer/Amare/Bosh,and KG. With Perkins and Shaq(if they can convince him) coming off the bench.
2nd Infantry Division --- Second to None!
by Jeff_Fuller_49 on Dec 16, 2008 12:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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