Managing Expectations

So far, we have a close win over the Eastern rival Cavs, a blowout win over a young Bulls team, and a bad looking loss against a Pacers team that nobody is sure what to make of yet. Oh yeah, and we are the defending champs. So does that title mean that we can give them a pass on an early season loss? Or does that loss signal a step back that we should be concerned with?
The quick answer is that we just don’t know yet. It is far too early to panic and it is also too early to declare that the team is just as good as it was last year. The team is off the pace they set last year, but is that even a fair measure of this team? Not many teams start out 12-0. Championship teams sometimes get off to slow starts and pick up steam at the end of the year. I’d rather this team finish well than start well.
With that said, all we can go on right now is this small sample size. Tossing out the preseason, we have three games to review. We had concerns coming into the season. Would the team have a good backup to Perkins? So far Powe has been solid and Big Baby hasn’t. Would Tony Allen step up in the absence of James Posey? So far, he’s been pretty good.
A trend that many people have noticed is how the team seems to struggle against younger, athletic teams. The Pacers have some young guys that stepped up on Saturday which reminds a lot of people of the Hawks series last year. On the other hand, the Bulls are young and fairly athletic and they were totally out of their league against the Celtics.
The Hawks series showed that a young team can steal some games from the Celts. It also showed that over the course of 7 games, the better team still wins. I have a lot of confidence that if we played the Pacers in a 7 game series, Doc and the coaching staff would adjust to Dick Harter’s blitzing-the-pick-and-roll defense and Thibodeau would find a way to frustrate the Pacers’ offense. A good jump shooting team like the Pacers is bound to steal a game or two when they are knocking them down. But I think it is safe to say the Celtics are still the better team.
So, we shouldn’t be overly concerned over a single loss this early in the season. If anything, I’m a little relieved to see that the team won’t be pushing hard to keep a winning streak alive. They might run the risk of running out of steam as the season drags on. This becomes more and more of a concern the older the stars get.
On the other hand, the last thing we want to see is the team being content to coast through the regular season. We’ve seen the Pistons throttle it back on a couple of occasions, thinking they could turn it on when the playoffs rolled around. I think that hurt them by developing bad habits. You play like you practice. Few people are worried about the Celtics taking that attitude with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce on the roster, but I guess you never know.
I’d like to see Bill Walker make enough progress to be someone we can call upon to make a contribution. Perhaps he could provide some athleticism to counter what some of the Atlanta Hawks of the world throw at us. But he has to be ready. If he’s lost or can’t pick up the defense quick enough, he does us more harm than good. Hopefully he’ll be ready sometime this year.
The same goes for JR Giddens, though I have lower expectations for him based on the preseason. I’d like to see a little more of Gabe Pruitt, especially now that he’s in his second season. Maybe we could see some more of Pruitt at the 1 and House at the 2 with the second unit. I want to believe in Patrick O’Bryant, but so far he’s been invisible. With all these guys, we’ll just have to see if they can earn the minutes.
So, maybe help is on the way, maybe not. Maybe this first loss is just a bump in the road that will be quickly forgotten about. Maybe it is the harbinger of doom that signifies the beginning of the end, …though not likely. All we know for sure is that these are the defending champs and we have 79 games left in the regular season.
Side Note: In the past I’ve self imposed a "15 game rule" where I decided not to judge the team before seeing at least 15 games. In the past couple years I tossed that rule aside pretty quickly. First the team was epically bad. Then they were phenomenally good. Maybe now that we’ve gotten back to “normal” I should reinstitute it. We’ll see.
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30 comments
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Comments
Only Two Things Matter
1. Staying Healthy
2. Playing the bench so Danny has an idea of what he needs to do by Feb
Everything else is just filler.
by William_Ayers on Nov 3, 2008 6:44 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
The team might need to go back to Pierce in the second unit.
by Who on Nov 3, 2008 7:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
O’Bryant is not the “steal” that he looked like in first few preseason games or we’d be seeing a little more of him.
The whole team laid an egg against Indy. We have problems if one of each three games looks like that but I doubt it will.
I too think we shouldhave seen a little of Pruitt in INdy game. My man Eddie couldn’t throw it in the ocean.
I can’t understand why a gifted athlete such as Rondo cannot shoot free throws. Rondo has to be an 80% shooter with the body contact he draws.
by Wildblu1 on Nov 3, 2008 8:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Too early to reach any conclusions, but …
There are definitely warning signs materializing – a lack of perimeter shooting depth, no reliable backup with size at the 5.
Doesn’t look like a 60-win team at this point.
by CoachBo on Nov 3, 2008 8:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
look before you leap
The 15 game rule seems pretty sensible for this season.
by no kidding on Nov 3, 2008 8:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It was wishful thinking
That POB would suddenly trun into a different player.
That House would be able to handle pressure.
That House would be non-treaky as a shooter.
That TA would play consistently.
"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark
by Eeyore III on Nov 3, 2008 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Good one!
"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark
by Eeyore III on Nov 3, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
posey,posey,posey. Ok, you can’t say that Big Game James would cure all our bench problems but he sure would help. In the Pacers game he could have taken Granger for a while. also I guarantee you he would have been in someone’s ear about not settling for jumpers. But Posey is gone and he’s not walking through that door any time soon so I agree that giving pruitt some more minutes will help and I also agree that I would like to see walker activated. POB can’t get any better if Doc doesn’t play him.Tony allen still scares the hell out of me. Eddie is no PG which is why I say play pruitt there and eddie at the 2 and put tony at sf to spell pierce. As much as I love Baby I don’t see any improvement in his game. he still spends most of the time on the floor. Again I love the kid and his spirit but if danny can get something for him he should look into it
by Red2 on Nov 3, 2008 9:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
hey, I think everyone knew we were taking a step back when we lost Posey and PJ Brown. Let’s not forget the importance of PJ as a backup center. We replaced those guys with tony allen and patrick O Bryant ( or Leon if you want to look at it that way). Our bench was better last year- PERIOD. Danny has to hope that someone steps up. If not we’re going nowhere this year. We’ll win 50 + games but no championship.I don’t think I will ever understand the logic in not re-signing Posey. Damn!
by Red2 on Nov 3, 2008 9:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
we'll see in a few months
if someone (or multiple players) can step up over time, great
otherwise, we might see another late season pickup or even a trade
man, I hope Joe Smith is cut loose or can be had at a reasonable price
by Jeff Clark on Nov 3, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I often see a complete lack of objectivity when assessing this team’s strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes I think I’m watching in a different universe.
For God’s sake, don’t try to blame everything on your whipping boy de jour, whether it’s Tony Allen, Big Baby, Patrick O’Bryant, Scalabrine, or whomever.
They lost in Indiana because TJ Ford and Jarrett Jack utterly and completely outplayed Rondo and House. The Indiana guards penetrated into the gut of Boston’s defense at will. And it’s the starters who lost that game, not the bench. They were already down ten by the time a substitution was made. And James Posey would have made absolutely no difference, because he can’t guard TJ Ford either.
Let me also add this: when Jim O’Brien and Dick Harter were coaching the Celtics, we would often see teams that were befuddled by Harter’s schemes the first time around, but then beat the Celtics the second or third time around. Teams would watch tape and figure out how to make O’Brien’s teams pay for fronting the post and blitzing the pick on every possession. This Celtics team will adjust also.
Let’s also be careful about repeating the same old tired mantras about what is wrong with the team. For starters, this team does not need more height in the froncourt. In fact, the team’s post defense has been excellent since about the third game in the preseason, and there has been plenty of front court scoring.
This team’s problems so far have been in the backcourt, either when Rondo does not play well or is on the bench, because the ball stops moving. I think it’s time to see what Pruitt can do.
by Brickowski on Nov 3, 2008 10:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
or cassell
God bless and good night!
by BrickJames on Nov 3, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Play Pruitt!
We saw what Pruitt can do in the preseason, which is why the poll on this board had most people wanting him to be backup PG. It’s time for Doc to get over his notion that House is the answer; he’s a nice niche player, but not a PG.
Respectfully disagree that we don’t need more frontcourt height. It might not have mattered in Indy, but it will matter soon, like against Houston when Scola fouls out our frontcourt singlehandedly again in the first quarter.
"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark
by Eeyore III on Nov 3, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
the typical reaction
zomg we lost!!1 lets play an unproven player…just because!
God bless and good night!
by BrickJames on Nov 3, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes and no
I do agree that I’d like to see Pruitt get more minutes at the 1 while House plays the 2. If that wasn’t the plan, why play all those preseason games letting the players get used to that lineup and those roles? It certainly seemed to help House play with a bit more consistency, and while House tries admirably on defense, I think Pruitt is a bit quicker.
Our little-bigs handled Scola fairly well last year (and I do like him as a player, he’s Powe-esque). I’m sure we’ll see Yao shooting jumpers over Powe or Davis, but let’s face it, Yao does that over legit 7-footers as well. A few inches more height won’t matter there. The questions will be, can our bigs beat him up and down the court, draw some fouls on him, etc. I think they can.
by MattD on Nov 3, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When the “proven” players aren’t getting it done, then you try the unproven player. If he can’t get it done, you make a trade.
Cassell isn’t the answer either. When he’s in the game, that’s when the ball really stops moving.
Rondo needs to start shooting jump shots. He also needs to stay in front of his man on defense. He gambles for steals too much.
by Brickowski on Nov 3, 2008 10:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
aren't getting it done?
we’ve played THREE games
God bless and good night!
by BrickJames on Nov 3, 2008 11:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
would have pulled it off...
We won tons of crappy games like this last season. No no-taking-prisoners attitude like last season. Kind of worrysome
by cocofan on Nov 3, 2008 11:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nonentity
For whatever reason—injury, conditioning, coach’s decision—it appears to be written in stone that Perkins is incapable of playing more than 20-22 minutes. And based on his production, or lack thereof, that might not be a bad thing—if only the Celtics had a capable backup. But if they did have a capable backup, then he, the backup, would be starting instead of Perkins. Otherwise, Big Baby seems to have regressed.
by Celtsfansince55 on Nov 3, 2008 1:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
right on, brick. agree with your analysis. my only addition is ray seems slower to react.
by nazzbo on Nov 3, 2008 1:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
well, at least they now have a bunch of tape to watch. Everyone on the team can improve from studying that game…
by D Dub on Nov 3, 2008 1:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Three Games
I think it is fair to say after three games we now know we need to play Sam Cassell, Scal, Walker, Giddens, and the waterboy A LOT more! :)
Sure it was not fun to watch, but at least it is the exception, not the rule.
by VtCeltics on Nov 3, 2008 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pruitt, Walker, and POB have got to play more. The problem is that Doc usually subs on a wholesale basis, maybe leaving in one starter with four reserves. He needs to have one or two subs with 3/4 starters to gives these end of bench guys confidence, as they tend to play much better(as you would expect) with a stronger cast around them! Even Scal is a decent contributor with the starters, minus one.
Each of those guys at the end of the bench bring good things to the table, but not playing four or five of them together!
It takes alot more skill substituting like that—and Doc may not be up to it, but I definitely think it would help us.
by OhioGreen on Nov 3, 2008 2:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Over reacting just a bit!!
Ummmm…..it’s only the first loss of the season on the road during an opponent’s home opener on the backside of a back to back while getting into their rooms in Indy at 4:30 AM. Aren’t some of us being just a wee bit harsh in the assessment of this team after a loss that, given in the variables that were thrown into it, could have been easily predicted as a loss given the circumstances.
I say listen to Jeff, he is wise. Let’s wait for 15 games to get a better handle not only on this team but the competition that we have played and will be playing. 13 games later this could appear to be not that bad of a loss if Indy turns out to be a pretty decent team.
by nickagneta on Nov 3, 2008 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Road games have to be more intense
My problem isn’t the loss as much as the road apathy that was too familiar from last year’s playoffs. The C’s won 30 road games last year and need to resemble that team beginning tomorrow. Its a given that they are talented enough to win 30+ at home, it will be the road record that determines home court for the playoffs. I’m confident that the big 3 have addressed this issue within the team now its a matter of displaying that road warrior intensity immediately and sustaining that level for the next 6 months.
by 12417 on Nov 3, 2008 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Real Large James
That game was all about tempo which we obviously did not dictate.
by The Real Large James 2 on Nov 3, 2008 3:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And the overanalysing of a total of 3 games continues
by NoraG1 on Nov 3, 2008 4:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Road
I am taking this loss a bit harder than I should this early in the season, simply because it was on the road and that trend started last year in the play-offs.
So much of sport is “in the head” and last year, the winning became a habit early and stayed the distance.
This year, I do not want “road games” to become a mental hurdle. I have to pick out my young stud, Rajon, as one player who seems to struggle a little away from home.
I haven’t hit the panic button yet, but I would love a win against Houston, just to settle the nerves.
The big three need to be the big three in Houston, or we (may) have a problem.
Go the Green !!!!
Cheers
Aussie
by Aussie Celtic on Nov 3, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don’t favor playing anyone new just because they’re new. You play them if they earn minutes. Doc won a title, so I think we have to assume O’Blount, Walker and Pruitt aren’t earning minutes. I certainly haven’t seen a thing from O’Blount to make me think he deserves to play.
by CoachBo on Nov 3, 2008 11:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs






























