Stuff the numbers, Hollinger. This Time its Personal.

by indeedproceed on Dec 13, 2008 12:15 PM EST Comment 14 comments

I am disgusted. I am abhorred. I'm a little bit angry but most of all I'm disappointed.

Hollinger's per diem for Friday, December 12, 2008:

In their mostly forgettable 38-year history, the Cavs have never won a game in the Finals, and even last season, they were a pretty average team. As a result, fans have had trouble getting their arms around the idea that Cleveland suddenly could be an unstoppable juggernaut.

So picture me grabbing you by the shoulders and shaking you while I say, "Cleveland suddenly is an unstoppable juggernaut."

The standings don't make this completely clear, because Boston is still a game ahead of Cleveland and beat the Cavs by five on opening day. In fact, the Celtics are working on a pretty impressive season of their own that could see them match last season's win total (66).

Based on that, you'd think the Playoff Odds would project Boston to repeat as champion. And if this were last season, they would.

But there's a teeny little problem: Out of the blue, the Cavs are having a season for the ages. Cleveland's plus-13.4 average victory margin this season, if it holds up, would be the best of all time in the league. And here's a scary thought -- it could get better. The Cavs still have 10 games left against the six bottom-feeders in the West.

At the moment, Boston is the only thing preventing the Cavs from another awesome accomplishment -- becoming the second team in history to lead the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency in the same season. Only the legendary 1995-96 Bulls managed that feat, but Cleveland is mighty close.

I know Cleveland is a good team. Heck, they beat Dallas by 19 points. Utah by 12. Denver by 11. Those are good teams. One of them might even make it to the Conference Finals in the West. They've got a league leading +13.48 margin of victory., and they're #1 in the league in offensive efficiency, and #2 in defensive efficiency. I understand that Cleveland is one of the top three teams in the league. I know those three teams (Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers) are separated by only the thinnest of margins. I truly believe that LeBron James is the best player in the league. They're 20-3, and that's quite an accomplishment.

I also understand that numbers don't lie. I get it; the Playoff Odds calculator runs on cold hard facts. Its completely objective. You can't blame a guy for a complex and comprehensive algorithm. I respect John Hollinger for his hard work, and a lot of times the guy knows what he's talking about.

But come on. Cleveland's strength of schedule isn't abnormally high (but neither is Boston's). They're only 23 games into the regular season.They're not in first place in their conference. I can understand how one could postulate that Cleveland is tied for the role of "best in the league". But my understanding runs out the door when Hollinger says things like this:

At the moment, Boston is the only thing preventing the Cavs from another awesome accomplishment..

With such impressive results so far, it's no wonder the Playoff Odds like the Cavs so much. The amazing part isn't that they come out favored over Boston; it's that the Lakers and the Celtics are themselves so strong that in half the scenarios, Cleveland fails to win the title. In almost any other season, we'd already be planning the parade route.

You've got to be kidding me. The Celtics BEAT the Cavaliers. So the Celtics only have a margin of victory of 10 and a half points. So the Celtics have a mildly softer stregnth of schedule. They're 22 and 2! They're off to the best start in franchise history, and this is a franchise that has WON 17 titles! This is the same Celtics team that not only beat the Cavaliers in a 7 game series last May, but went on to win the NBA title! Are you kidding me Hollinger? The Celtics are 1 and a half games ahead of the Cavaliers, and on top of that, they BEAT the Cavaliers, and you want to talk about paades? Parades?

Get a grip, man! The season is barely a quarter's worth done. Numbers are numbers but parades? Annointings? I cannot wait for January 9th. After Cleveland loses by 10 and a half points, being suffocated by the league's best defense. You know what to do with your numbers, Hollinger.

And I think the title "per diem" is stupid.

Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.

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Per Diem IS a stupid title

As much I dislike Hollinger, he isn’t really annointing anyone…he’s saying in any OTHER season than this one, Cleveland would be planning parade routes. Technically his thought is:

“Because of Boston and L.A.‘s strength, one can’t realistically start talking about anything like parades for Cleveland”.

Which I guess is kind of like saying:

“Because of Contender X’s and Champion Y’s strength, Contender Z can’t be considered favorites in this year’s National Sport League.”

and that has nothing to do with numbers, it’s just true year in and year out, and officially confirm’s John Hollinger’s status as about as air-headed as any sports commentator.

(I also can’t beleive I just almost defended John Hollinger. My apologies.)

by newyorkceltics on Dec 13, 2008 1:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think you’re not giving enough credit to Hollinger’s exuberance. The quote is: “With such impressive results so far, it’s no wonder the Playoff Odds like the Cavs so much. The amazing part isn’t that they come out favored over Boston; it’s that the Lakers and the Celtics are themselves so strong that in half the scenarios, Cleveland fails to win the title. In almost any other season, we’d already be planning the parade route.”

To me thats saying “The funny thing isn’t that the numbers say contender Z is the through and through favorite, its that in 1 of two scenarios team Z does not win the title because either X or Y does”.

Put into context you could also read:

“The funny thing isn’t that the Cavaliers (who lost to Boston in last season’s playoffs, and lost to them previously this season) are highly favored to win the NBA championship. The funny thing is that they aren’t favored more, because Boston, a team having the best start in franchise history, and the Lakers are playing so strongly.”

He is basically limiting Boston and LA to afterthoughts here.

Reporter: About a year ago I asked about the Celtics-Lakers thing and you said you'd really only seen it on TV. Now you've been through it, can you talk about playing the Boston Celtics for the NBA championship?
Kobe: It Sucks.

by indeedproceed on Dec 13, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hollinger is a Moron

by TheAncientRivalry on Dec 13, 2008 2:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Celtics have played 6 teams in the top 10 and are 5-1. Cleveland has played 4 and is 2-2. We’ve played a tougher schedule.

by RebusRankin on Dec 13, 2008 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think maybe our SOS is lower because we keep beating teams, thus making every team we’ve played worse by one record. I don’t think that its coincidence that of the teams with the top 10 SOS’s, 8 have losing records. Part of that is because they’re playing tough teams (ala Indiana), but part of that is because they keep losing, inflating other team’s records, and making their SOS seem higher.

by indeedproceed on Dec 13, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Cleve would have that problem too IP

Bottom line is that the sample size is too small to make any statistically valid arguments at this point. Hollinger is a shill for his own excel formula

When Perk was asked what he thought of Howard winning the gold medal this summer, he responded: "What’s his impression of me after I won a ring?"

by Green17 on Dec 13, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah thats absolutely true.

by indeedproceed on Dec 13, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Way too early to care

Nice rant!

The teams don’t make the schedules, January 9th is less than 1 month away.

We do know the Cavs are better than last year. Didn’t they win all their home games against the Celtics last year?

So do you really think the Celts will win on the 9th?

I don’t…

by nba is the worst on Dec 13, 2008 6:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well, the Celtics have only lost 2 games, only 1 on the road so I would not be too sure of that.

by NoraG1 on Dec 13, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why bother...

Hollinger’s “flawless” PER-based simulator actually had a run where the Celtics go 24-34 the remainder of the season. It doesn’t factor in injuries – that’s based strictly on PER and matchups.

So, we can basically throw this thoughts out the window – they don’t reflect reality.

God bless and good night!

by BrickJames on Dec 13, 2008 6:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thats a good point. Usually I don’t care about Hollinger’s numbers…they serve a purpose, but they’re just a small piece of a bigger picture.
But this time he’s gone way beyond numbers, or more rather, he’s saying the numbers are the end all be all without granting them any real consideration of context.

by indeedproceed on Dec 13, 2008 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The beauty of a good statistical model

is that you never have to think.

Hollinger is working on perfecting the second half of that statement, anyway.

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 15, 2008 5:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

There is a HUGE difference...

…between saying a team IS better than another team and a team HAS PLAYED better than another team. Check out my FanPost in response.

by Fan from VT on Dec 15, 2008 10:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Too early to draw any real conclusions

Hollinger’s system is a guide, not the be all and end-all. It doesn’t take injuries into effect. Team winning percentages can be skewed. For example, Cleveland will be playing Minn and OkC soon – that’s 6-43 – that sure won’t help the opp win %.

Cleveland hasn’t yet beaten a good team on the road (1-4 – Dallas wasn’t good when they beat them) . Boston has beaten most of the elite at home, but really hasn’t been tested on the road (2-0 against Hou and Det)

In Feb – Boston takes on Hornets, Mavs, Jazz, Suns and Nuggets in successive road games (sandwiched around ASB). That’s where we’ll see how good Boston really is.

Cleveland has a stretch in late January where they play 6 of 8 on the road and 5 of those are LA, Port, Utah, Orlando and Det, and a set in late Feb/early March where they play
@Hou, @SA, @Atl, @Mia, Mil, @Bos. That’ll show us something about Cleveland.

Both teams have had it pretty easy so far. I think neither team will really threaten 70,
Boston hasn’t had any real injuries, Cleveland just had their first (Gibson and their center)

by nyceltfan on Dec 16, 2008 2:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs