Tony Allen 2008-09 really no different that any other year.

by nickagneta on Dec 15, 2008 11:20 PM EST

With over 25% of the season now behind us I think it's fair to say that what players are giving the Celtics this year is what this team can expect to get out of those players for the remainder of the season. Could there be some improvement or could players fall back a bit? Sure, but I would say for the most part, at this point in the season, what you see is what you are going to get.

So with all that said, what does Tony Allen, now more than a year removed from his surgery, really give to this team this year that is all that much different or better than what he gave in past years? I will admit, I am a card carrying member of the anti- Tony Allen Fan Club. Guilty as charged. I have always thought that he really was all about the physical and didn't have a clue about the mental part of basketball. Tony will be as good as he is feeling physically on any given night. And that's it. Just one man's opinion.

But for almost all the off season and through a big portion of the first 12 games or so all I read was that Tony was better, that Tony was playing smarter, that the time away from the injury helped and he would somehow miraculously return into the player that he was for 16 games prior to his injury in 2007. But after 25 games i just thought I would chime in and let the Tony lovers out there know something:

TONY ALLEN IS ALMOST NO BETTER THIS YEAR THAN HE HAS BEEN AT ANY OTHER TIME IN HIS CAREER OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED 16 GAMES!

Sorry, but it's true. Given 20+ minutes, Tony can be productive. Given less than 20 minutes and Tony is near useless. And, again, I'm sorry to break it to you people, but Tony Allen is not a player deserving of averaging anything more than 20 minutes per game. Here's some interesting stats to look at from this year on comparing the difference in his play between when he gets 20+MPG and when he get >20MPG:

G MPG PTS/M A/M TO/M

>20MPG 11 15.1 .323 .047 .077

+20MPG 11 23.1 .531 .153 .061

The numbers are scary as to just how much his game falls off when he is not getting big minutes. A 35% drop in minutes makes for 40% drop off in his PTS/MIN, a 70% drop off in his AST/MIN, and a 26% increase in his TO/MIN.

Granted, the rationale is obviously if he isn't playing well than Doc is yanking him out of the game and hence the aberation that presents itself in these stats. Considering I didn't find any sort of database searches that broke down stats in that way(via a certain amount of MPG), trying to find out if such an occurrence is normal would be very time consuming and I am feeling a bit lazy right now so I'm not going to do it. But even to the naked eye it is fairly obvious that when Tony isn't getting minutes it's because he isn't playing well and considering that he had a 50/50 split in games played above and below the 20 MPG mark so far this year, only goes to show just how inconsistent he still is even though he is now a fairly experienced 5 year pro.

I said that in a thread in the Forums section of Celticsblog that if Tony Allen could give this team what he gave them last year I would be happy with that. Well, that's about what we are getting. The stats he gives this team are virtually identical from last year with the exception of a 33% increase in scoring(6.6 PPG to 8.8) that is a result of 30% more shots per game(5.2 to 6.8) with a 5 points increase in FG%(43.4% to 48.3%). But other than that, nothing really jumps off the page on you as to where he is producing all that much better than in previous seasons, with, of course, the exception of those 16 games in December and January of the 2006-07 season.

But Tony Allen is in no way, shape or form making up for the loss of James Posey. Tony Allen is not a major reason why this club is better this year than last year. Tony Allen is not and will never again ever be the player he was in those 16 games for this team ever again with the Celtics currently constructed the way they are. The reason? He has a lot of shortcomings in his game that he tries to overcome through physical prowess but Tony doesn' t have the physical or mental skills to be anything more than the inconsistent, 20 MPG player that he is.

Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.

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Comments

Right, this “statistic” indicates that when Tony plays well, Doc gives him more minutes; when Tony doesn’t play well, he gets pulled from the game quickly.

Any other questions?

by kozlodoev on Dec 16, 2008 7:46 AM EST reply actions

Yeah

Why is he not playing well so often? I thought this was going to be his next breakout year where he returned to some consistent, imposing player like he was for 16 games in 2006-07. The point of the stats is to show just how bad he is when he is going bad and how often he is bad.

by nickagneta on Dec 16, 2008 7:58 AM EST up reply actions

Good post

Can’t disagree. One can only hope that Tony Allen improves throughout the rest of the season.

by cordobes on Dec 16, 2008 11:23 AM EST reply actions

Tony Allen is playing much better than last year.

Tony Allen > Dearly departed JP

by Birdbrain on Dec 16, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions

But I do agree he doesn't shoot the 3 as well.

Tony Allen > Dearly departed JP

by Birdbrain on Dec 16, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

Sorry

but neither the numbers nor the consistency with which he produces well bear that fact out. He was playing mentally smarter ball for the first 12 games or so but I have definitely seen a regression from that type of smart basketball play as Tony has reverted back to what he always has been, a very mediocre, not very consistent or very intelligent basketball player.

by nickagneta on Dec 16, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Really?

Nick, I know you were chomping at the bit with this post, but you’re a little premature with your conclusion, not to mention flawed in your reasoning. Let me remind you of a few things:
1. Regardless of whatever number-crunching you do, Tony’s the 2nd team’s best scorer, dribble penetrator, ballhandler, creator, and defender. Take him out of the mix, and the 2nd team really struggles, as we saw 3 to 4 games ago. He hasn’t replaced Posey in the sense of doing everything that Posey did (because they’re different players), but he has replaced Posey in the sense of being the bench’s most important player.
2. And if you want to compare numbers, even with an up-and-down first quarter of the season (with an ankle injury thrown in there, which you neglected to mention) Tony’s still averaging more points, blocks, and steals, and shooting a better percentage from the field than dearly departed James Posey, in 5 minutes less per game. And, unlike Posey, Tony hardly plays with the first team, and thus rarely enjoys the benefit of less defensive attention, or a point guard who can dribble and create for others.
3. Tony’s working harder for his offense than Posey did because of the nature of his game and because House is not a point guard (which thrusts more responsibility onto Tony’s shoulders). Comcast ran a stat last game that said that 33% of Tony’s points come off the fast break. That’s amazing considering he plays most of his minutes with tiny 2-guard masquerading as a point who rarely if ever leads a successful fast break. Where Posey could still get his offense with Eddie at point (because James just shot 3s basically, which he could get at any time with a little ball movement), Tony has to work more for his offense, breaking down the defense off-the-dribble when he can or getting out on the break for a layup (usually after he steals it, or if he gets an outlet pass around half court). Where Posey could play with the 1st team and get a bunch of easy looks, Tony plays with a non-point guard 2nd team which faces a ton more defensive pressure. In essence, Tony’s been given more responsibility than Posey had last season, and he’s still putting up better numbers in less minutes.
4. I’m not sure we can draw any conclusions from the first 25 games, given Tony’s ankle injury and the way the team has been evolving into a more Rondo-centric team: we’re still a work in progress. Before the ankle injury, I thought Tony was playing some pretty consistent ball. He’s been more up-and-down since the injury, but that’s to be expected. I’m sure his consistency will pick up in the next couple games. Further, since he’s yet to be fully integrated into the offense (no one on the 2nd team is, mainly because of the point guard problems that unit has), I think it’s safe to assume he’s going to get better as the season progresses (just like I think Powe and House will too), hopefully getting some minutes with Rondo at the helm and taking advantage of his fast break prowess.
5. I think you’re missing the biggest point of them all: Tony’s game compliments the team as it is currently constructed. If you remember back to last season, the 2nd unit was sink-or-swim with the 3-ball. If Posey or House weren’t hitting, the 2nd unit was not going to score. This season, we’ve diversified. By removing Posey and playing Powe and Tony in his absence we’ve become a more well-rounded team, harder to defend, and more efficient. Now, the 2nd team can attack from inside or outside. We didn’t have that luxury last season.

Tony has many areas to improve on as the season progresses, but I think he’s had a fine first quarter of the season, with plenty of room for growth as the season continues. What’s holding the 2nd team back right now is the lack of a point guard. Personally, I’d like to see Doc either play Rondo with the 2nd team more, or play Pruitt, with House sliding to the 2 and Tony at the 3. Instead of having Ray or Paul bridge the 1st and 2nd teams, use Rondo instead. Once we see the point guard problems resolved on the 2nd unit, I think we’re going to see a huge jump in 2nd team performance. Rondo or Pruitt should be at the point at all times, Tony should be taken off the ball more, along with Eddie House, and we should be transitioning to a more fast-break based 2nd unit, featuring Powe in the low post when we can’t get out in transition.

Bottom line: Tony’s being asked to do a lot for that 2nd team right now, and I think he’s answered the call for the most part. As his ankle fully heals, and he gets more reps (and hopefully more minutes), and as the 2nd team improves with better PG play, I think we’ll see Tony play better and better.

(BTW: I’m not going to even address your not-so-well researched under/over 20 minutes argument—the sample size is WAY too small)

by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Dec 16, 2008 1:56 PM EST reply actions

He’s defending more consistently, I will grant you that.

However, he has no outside shot whatsoever and his judgment with the basketball – as Nick accurately points out – isn’t a whole lot better than it’s ever been: bad. Meanwhile, the second unit has in recent games hurt this basketball team; it’s inability to hold leads has been consistent and disappointing. Thank God the first five is clicking.

Been around here long enough to know that there’s some odd urge to elevate Tony to star status, like Gerald Green. But the facts bely that.

by CoachBo on Dec 21, 2008 10:38 AM EST reply actions