Celtics Bench: Unfairly Criticized?
by Fan from VT on Dec 21, 2008 4:19 PM EST
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PrintThe most common criticisms this season have been directed towards the play of our bench, or "second unit." I've set out to simply examine, to the best of my abilities, whether or not these criticisms have more than an anecdotal basis.
With the recent playing time of Gabe Pruitt, I think that we can mostly agree that the second unit consists of some combination of:
Pruitt, House, Tony, Powe, Scal and Davis.
Let's look at the big picture.
-In '07-'08, the most frequently seen lineup was
1. Rondo, Ray, Pierce, Garnett, Perkins. +388
-In '08-'09, the most frequently seen lineup has been
1. Rondo, Ray, Pierce, Garnett Perkins. +168
This makes sense. These are the starters, nothing has changed in the starting lineup; they play together most frequently.
Look a little closer: In terms of playing time, the next most frequently used lineups were/are:
-'07-'08:
2. Rondo-T.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins +74
3.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Garnett +15
4. House-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins +16
-'08-'09:
2. House-T.Allen-Pierce-Powe-Davis +24
3. House-T.Allen-R.Allen-Powe-Davis +13
4. House-T.Allen-Powe-Scalabrine-Davis -8
What's interesting here is that the data confirms an observation I made in the most recent Game Thread from Friday: In '07-'08, Doc's use of "Bench" meant mixing in bench players with AT LEAST 2 starters (in the above cases, just one bench player with 4 starters!), whereas this season, lineups 2 and 3 in frequency have just one starter, and the 4th most frequent lineup has NO STARTERS (I would like to note that for lineup 4 82games.com seems to have the lineup incorrect; I assume that Scal plays SF and Powe the PF position). In other words, unlike last season, this season Doc really is sending in nearly a full "second unit."
FYI, here are the rest of the lineups used this year and last, in order of most time on the floor together:
-'07-'08:
5.House-T.Allen-Posey-Powe-Davis -3
6.House-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Garnett +8
7.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Davis +9
8.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Powe +23 9.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Davis +4 10.House-T.Allen-R.Allen-Posey-Davis +33
11.House-T.Allen-R.Allen-Posey-Powe +19
12.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Scalabrine-Perkins +17
13.T.Allen-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins +20
14.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Perkins -18
15.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Pollard +31
16.Rondo-Pierce-Posey-Garnett-Perkins +7
17.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Garnett +25
18.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Davis +8
19.Cassell-T.Allen-Posey-Brown-Davis +6
20.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Powe -14
-'08-'09
5.House-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins +15
6.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Powe-Garnett +30
7.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Davis +15
8.Rondo-T.Allen-R.Allen-Garnett-Perkins -5
9.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Scalabrine-Perkins +12
10.House-Pruitt-T.Allen-Powe-Davis +6
Again, let's look closer. In this current season, only two lineups used by the Celtics have been outscored by opponents, as indicated by the +/- number to the right of the lineup. This is an absolute number, so it is not adjusted for playing time.* But it does give us some ideas. For example, during the '08-'09 season, the lineup of House, Tony, Pierce, Powe and Davis has scored 24 more points than it has allowed. That's a success in my book, as it means a lead was increased while four starters were sitting. The two lineups that have been outscored over the course of this season are:
4. House-T.Allen-Powe-Scalabrine-Davis -8
8.Rondo-T.Allen-R.Allen-Garnett-Perkins -5
The previous season, there were only 3 units that were outplayed while on the court:
5.House-T.Allen-Posey-Powe-Davis -3
14.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Perkins -18
20.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Powe -14
What this seems to show is that despite what a lot of us have observed, over the course of this season our bench has done a reasonable job of sustaining or even building leads. Perhaps because they are clearly not as good as our starters they seem to be doing worse than they actually are. Or perhaps the bench has periods of losing leads quickly, as many observe, but at other times slowly can build leads so that over the course of the season they have overall outperformed their opponents but we are left remembering the times they blew leads quickly while not acknowledging building a one or two point lead. I don't know for sure, but it seems like the problems with our bench are overblown.
When you also consider that the 6 bench players mentioned earn a collective 13.57 million compared to 65.95 mil for the 5 starters, the discrepancy is easy to understand. We can't expect a "second unit" of 4-5 bench players at a time to play as well as the starters do. It just can't happen.
Additionally, as someone who is on record with agreeing that Posey was not worth the 4 year contract he received from New Orleans, I would like to point out that Posey was involved on all of last season's outplayed units, as well as the feature bench player on the most frequent "all bench" unit, which was the 5th most common lineup used by the Celtics last year and was out-dueled over the course of the season. Put another way, in '07-'08, the top 4 most frequently used lineups had AT LEAST 4 starters. The first "mostly-sub" lineup was the 5th lineup of all bench players, presumably anchored by Posey, and that lineup was outscored over the course of the season; Posey was not quite the bench savior/leader off the bench we believe he was. I do not think he would make this season's "all-bench" lineups significantly better.
So, most important from this quick research?
-Doc is more committed to playing more subs together at the same time this year than last year.
-All-sub lineups did just as poorly last season as this season (or this seasons all-sub lineups have done just as well as last season)
-The bench has not been as bad as it seems this season
* For those that are curious, here's the teams +/- by unit adjusted on a per-minute basis:
08-'09
Unit/ "+/-" per Minute
1 0.291
2 0.247
3 0.194
4 -0.216
5 0.455
6 0.909
7 0.517
8 -0.238
9 0.632
10 0.333
07-'08
Unit/ "+/-" per Minute
1 0.369
2 0.465
3 0.105
4 0.162
5 -0.033
6 0.093
7 0.117
8 0.303
9 0.057
10 0.559
11 0.322
12 0.333
13 0.476
14 -0.429
15 0.795
16 0.184
17 0.658
18 0.242
19 0.188
20 -0.452
Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.
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great job
Way to break this down. I had thought about doing the same based on the same hypothesis. You just saved me a whole lot of research. Outstanding job! I’m a dorky numbers guy and this spoke to me.
FAIRLY CRITICIZED
Are you kidding me man? The Celtics bench is atrocious. I don’t know if you’ve been watching the games, almost everytime the 1st unit goes to the bench, the 2nd string guys give up the lead (or come close to it). How many more times will the core guys bail them out? This is a recurring pattern that disturbs me. In the playoffs, we’re going to need more than Leon Powe and the occassional Eddie House three pointer to make it work. Big Baby right now is awful. Scalabrine can go either way. Gabe Pruitt is an enigma. Honestly the bench play is by far the biggest weakness of this team. Even amidst this winning streak, it’s a concern that cannot be dismissed. This team could really use Joe Smith, or a veteran who can give you scoring and help maintain a lead and keep things under control until the 1st unit is ready to check back in.
TPD 4 3333333
by TradeProposalDude on Dec 23, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions
Wow
That was amazing research and statistics man, i give you props. My honest opinion was that our bench was not as bad as everyone thought. I do like Eddie House and Leon Powe alot. Powe gets us O boards, hustle, and gets us to the free throw line even though hes making, what.. 63% at the stripe? Still, its a good spark, and as far as House goes, when the man’s hot, he’s hot, no denying that. He is no Rajon Rondo with distributing the ball, but i like his energy and passion. But youre right- having a big part of your bench being Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine and Tony Allen isnt going to cut it. Lets pray one of the Big-Four ( as i think you can justifiably call it now) doesnt go down for the count in one of these games, or this best start in NBA history could very well end up the biggest disappointment in NBA history.
Davoo
You certainly put in a ton of time and thought! There are times it certainly looks worse than the data you gave seem to indicate. I suspect the second unit may make up for some of the leads they give up in the second quarter by pumping up their numbers in “garbage time” of blowouts. Do you get that sense too, Fan from VT?
Good post
For the Posey fans (I’m one of them), I’d argue he was playing with the Starting unit, subbing for Ray or Paul, most of the time. He was still effective playing with House, etc but like any sub, he looked better playing with 4 starters.
I think the same would be true of any bench player. They’re expected to do less, and can play within their limitations.
One of my favorite Celtic targets, Tony Allen is a perfect example of this.
If Tony is subbing for Pierce with the starters, he can play a simpler game. In the second unit, TA is expected to be the primary offensive weapon most trips down the floor as well as the defensive stopper and occasional ball handler.
I know Doc does’t have a ton of options, but putting all that into TA’s hands is like giving the keys of an Escalade to an 8 yr old and asking them to park it on Newbury Street. Something bad is bound to happen. And it does. In an effort to help on D, Tony is often caught out of position and has to run to cover his man. He gets caught fouling or biting on pump fakes time after time. TA can handle the ball, but that should only be in an open court situation. In the half court, he turns it over. As far as offense goes, I think TA is still regaining his confidence. I see him missing FT’s & layups so often that it just looks like he needs some kind of reset.
If/when the C’s pick up help, they really need some kind of defensive presence in the 2nd unit with height. Obviously, PJ Brown would work, but he seems like he’s done. Maybe Walker or Giddens can contribute minutes this year. If not Ainge might have to make a trade. I do trust that Danny is working the phones and looking for much needed help.
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