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Daily Babble: The Most Troubling Flaw of the Mavs' (Prospective) Deal for Jason Kidd

Author's Note: This column was originally scheduled to run as "Daily Babble: The Most Troubling Flaw of the Mavs' Deal for Jason Kidd.  That would be because at some point on Wednesday evening, Jason Kidd was believed to be a member of the Dallas Mavericks for all but certain.  Shortly thereafter, Devean George got involved and at least temporarily nixed the deal.  However, so far as we understand it, the trade is most likely to be salvaged in the very near future, and as such, we proceed with our explanation of the major concern that should surround the potential move for Dallas.  Without further ado, we present to you "Daily Babble: The Most Troubling Flaw of the Mavs' (Prospective) Deal for Jason Kidd.

Sadly for those in Dallas, there is a catch beyond Jason Kidd's age to the latest NBA blockbuster, and the source of that catch doesn't even play so many as 20 minutes per game.

From virtually every other angle, the Kidd move looks like a good one for the Mavs.  They keep their core intact.  For the present and immediate future, they get a man who in spite of his advancing age remains one of the game's premier point guards -- far more so than Devin Harris -- and who will be able to function with efficacy no matter what pace the Mavs play.

Jerry Stackhouse is likely to be bought out by the Nets, those speculating about Stack being 'snatched up' by suitors around the league in the 30-day waiting period before he can return to Dallas may want to check out what the man himself has had to say about the matter, as reported by ESPN:

"I feel great. I get 30 days to rest, then I'll be right back," he said. "I ain't going nowhere."

That far, all besides worrying about Kidd's advancing age over the next couple of seasons sounds good for Dallas.  And that age issue is a risk teams take when they want to make a push for a championship.

Ah, the risks teams take when pushing for a title.  One of the risks they don't take is dealing away their top interior defender.  Especially when those teams are likely worried about matching up with the likes of Tim Duncan, Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O'Neal come playoff time.

Even though he plays just 17.4 minutes per game, DeSagana Diop is exactly that guy for the Dallas Mavericks.

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All of Steve's daily posts can be found in the CelticsBlog: NBA

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One of the biggest changes in the Dallas Mavericks' identity in recent seasons has been their commitment to improving defensively.  Once the model of run-and-gun-sans-D before the Suns and Warriors, the Mavs have taken great steps under Avery Johnson to become a more efficient team at both ends of the floor.  They have slowed to the game's 26th quickest pace and have become extremely efficient at the offensive end of the floor (2nd in all of basketball).  Although they have dropped off a bit this season at the other end, the Mavs still sit at 13th in the league in defensive efficiency with a fairly effective 107.5 points allowed per 100 possessions.

DeSagana Diop is a big part of how the Mavs have managed to stay that high in the rankings.  He is a terrific rebounder (5.2 in his 17.4 minutes per game, putting him on pace for 11.9 boards per 40 minutes) and a ferocious shot-blocker (1.3 blocks per game, 2.8 per 40 minutes).  The 7-foot, 280-pound Diop has an immense wingspan and moves better than expected for a man of his physical stature.  He has the size to match with nearly any non-Yao post player in the league and the strength and skill to get the job done inside.  Further, his presence on the interior does quite a bit to alter shots and deter opponents from even taking several more per game.

Team defensive success is by no means a definitive indicator of an individual's impact, but the numbers are extreme in the case of Diop and his 'mates in the Dallas frontcourt.   With Erick Dampier on the court, the Mavs (who, again, have a team defensive efficiency of 107.5) have a defensive efficiency rating of 108.1 (points allowed per 100 possessions, of course), compared to 106.1 when he is off the floor.  That makes them two points worse defensively with Dampier on the floor than off.  The Mavs' are 1.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Brandon Bass on the floor than off.

Meanwhile, when Diop is seated on the bench, the Mavs give up a whopping 109.1 points per 100 possessions.  When he is on the floor, that number drops to 102.8, a difference of over six points per 100 possessions.  Nobody else on the Mavs even comes close to maintaining a figure along those lines.

That isn't a coincidence.  When Diop is on the floor, he guards the opponent's best post player, and he wreaks havoc in the midst of the lane.  He really made his name two seasons ago when he put the clamps on Tim Duncan in overtime of the Mavs' thrilling series-clinching win in San Antonio in the second round (Duncan scored 41 points in this game but went just 1-for-7 in overtime and had a shot blocked by Diop with the large Mav guarding him for the entire extra frame after starter Dampier fouled out).  He is by far the best answer this Dallas team had to the likes of Duncan, O'Neal, Stoudemire, Yao, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and the rest of the West's bigs.  When the games slow down in the playoffs and big man play becomes an even greater determinant of outcomes, Diop's importance would have only grown, as would his minutes.   In a deep Western in which multiple rivals have gained size over the past two weeks, Diop's presence would have been crucial to the Mavs' prospects for success in the postseason.

Instead, the Dallas Mavericks look like they will get to make their run at the trophy this season with a great point guard but without their most important piece of playoff basketball's most important factor: interior defense.  And that could hurt them far more than many expect.

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Honestly, I don’t even like the fact that they’re giving up Harris for Kidd, much less all the filler. I like Harris’ game and think he’s shown that he can improve and likely fill his potential from being a 4th (I think?) overall pick.

Kidd is better now, but I think as soon as next year I’d prefer Harris over Kidd straight up. Kidd’s shot is as poor as ever, his once great D seems to be starting to fade with age, and I really don’t like the attitude and baggage he brings. I don’t think this move is enough for Dallas to win it all this year… and if they’re giving up all this defense with Diop… they better hope they don’t get the Warriors again in the 1st round (I think the Warriors will finish 9th though).

by Big Ticket on Feb 14, 2008 1:25 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I would like to know how trading Stackhouse to NJ is any different than trading Gary Payton to Atlanta. Critics blasted Danny Ainge for doing this yet no one is complaining about the Mavericks. I don’t see one bit of difference.

by BleedinGreen417 on Feb 14, 2008 8:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nice job Steve.
You have to give to get.
NJ and Dallas both have given, both have gotten.
Here’s hoping it’s a horrible failure for both franchises.
Can’t stand either team.
Dallas because of the annoying Mark Cuban.
NJ becuase, well, they’re in NJ…the armpit of the country.
I’ll actually, probably, like the Nets if and when they ever move to Brooklyn.

by mcpu40 on Feb 14, 2008 8:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Losing Devin Harris makes them vulnerable against every quick point guard in the West. It also hurts them in how they match up with San Antonio and Phoenix …. not to mention Utah, New Orleans, GSW. So they’ve improved in how they matchup against Houston and LA, big risk.

by Who on Feb 14, 2008 9:04 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Steve, you’re spot on as always. The stats sure do seem to show that the Mavs are much better defensively with Diop on the court, and lately with Dampier battling various injuries, he’s been pretty good as his replacement.

Aside from the fact that I think this (potential) trade is a panic move by Cuban, and that keeping Harris is in the best interests of this team long term, giving up Diop is what really bothers me. As you said, he’ll surely be needed come playoff time when Damp picks up two quick fouls against Yao/Pao/Shaq/Boozer/whoever else. And in the slower paced playoff games, interior defense is much more crucial than having a top-flight point guard to help distribute the basketball (the Mavs had Terry running the point when they made it to the Finals).

All I have to say is, “Thank the lord for Devean George!”

by jcb6386 on Feb 14, 2008 10:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Diop sucks as an individual player. 11.9 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 40 should be standard for a 7 footer. He has no offensive game. However, his ability to turn the bigs who are great turn into bigs who are are less than dominant is huge.

Conventional wisdom is that you need a dominant big man to win the championship. But if you have a guy who can defend the other team’s big man and level the playing field, you don’t actually need to have that dominant force.

People credit the Pistons balance as why they won that championship over the Lakers, but it was really Ben Wallace doing the job on Shaq that set the tone and gave them a shot. Diop is of the same mold as Wallace.

I hope Perk is paying attention to this. Granted, KG is the force, but the defensive stopper is where Perk’s role and future lie.

Great job as usual Steve. We’ll be interested to see Cuban eat more luxury tax if he’s desperate to get this deal done.

by Jon76MVN on Feb 14, 2008 12:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Big Ticket,

I’m not sure whether or not the point guard switch improves the Mavs enough at that position to turn them into contenders, but I would hasten to maintain that for at least this season and next in my estimation (and perhaps another after that, although that stretches it), Kidd gives the Mavs a quantum leap forward over Harris at the point. He is a far superior passer, and his ability to make everyone around him better isn’t replicated by many in the league. Though his defense has slipped, he is still a capable defender, and he is a great rebounding guard (8 per game). I really believe that this guy would add a completely new dimension to the Dallas offense, although there are plenty of voices out there (John Hollinger in particular comes to mind) that see it your way.

So far as the long-term future is concerned, there’s no question your right: the age tells the story there. But I’ll still take Kidd for now. The issue comes back to whether or not this makes the Mavs a title team (I’m not sure, but they certainly are no cinch) and how much they are giving up in addition to Harris. Diop alone makes it too much in my eyes.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Feb 14, 2008 1:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

BleedinGreen417,

I’m not entirely sure what you mean. On what grounds was Ainge blasted for bringing GP back right after reacquiring Antoine? If I recall correctly, I believe the rule allowing Ainge to do what he did was blasted, but Ainge was credited for his ability to acquire the player he wanted (Toine) while not having to give up his point guard for more than a few hours. As you may know, the rule has since been changed, thus forcing Dallas to wait 30 days before they can re-sign Stack if he is bought out by Jersey (though he is free to go anywhere else in the league in the interim). Why should Dallas be criticized for this?

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Feb 14, 2008 1:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

mcpu40,

Thanks as always for writing in. No arguments from me here. I’m not as anti-Cuban as most, but I have no particular affinity for the Mavs. Meanwhile, it’ll be nice to have J-Kidd out of the division, and I can’t stand any team whose focal player has become Vince Carter. I’m with ya.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Feb 14, 2008 1:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Who,

As I wrote to Big Ticket, I think the Kidd acquisition helps more than some are giving it credit for, but I understand your concern regarding the quickness, especially against guards such as Parker, Nash, CP3 and D-Will. I’ll maintain that the interior defense really becomes the crucial issue here though.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Feb 14, 2008 1:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Joe,

Wholly agreed. While he may be a pariah now in Dallas, I cant help but wonder whether or not Dallas will be saying “Thanks, Dev!” (if the deal never gets done) or “Why didn’t we take our mulligan to think this over again when he gave it to us?” (if it does) come springtime.

Always good to hear from you.

-sw

P.S. For anyone interested in coverage of this deal from the Mavs’ side of things, check out Joe’s work over at Showboating (http://mvn.com/nba-mavericks), Most Valuable Network’s Mavs page. It’s quality stuff.

by Steve Weinman on Feb 14, 2008 1:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jon,

Much thanks for the kind words. Glad to see we agree on this issue — for the most part.

I’m with you on everything except for your insistence that Diop sucks as an individual player. 11.9 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 40 should be standard for a 7 footer."

Ultimately, I’m really not sure what that means. Because he is primarily a defensive specialist, he sucks? No, Diop isn’t a scorer. He is even somewhat valuable on the offensive end thanks to his offensive rebounding and his good hard screening. Further, regarding the rebounding and shot-blocking stats, perhaps those numbers should be standard for 7-footers, but the fact is that this isn’t necessarily the case. Diop sits at 18th in the league in boards per 40 minutes and 11th in blocks per 40. Not mind blowing by any means, but I can’t see how those numbers are grounds to say “he sucks” either.

But perhaps I’m just not understanding you on what it means for a player to “suck as an individual player.” My manner of evaluating an individual player is by considering what he contributes to his team. Yes, individual numbers often help to indicate that, but in Diop’s case, what he brings to the overall defense means quite a bit to his team. There are a lot of individual players in this league who bring assets to their teams that don’t show up in the box score. In my book, that doesn’t mean they suck.

Thanks for taking the time to write in; always good to hear from you.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Feb 14, 2008 2:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hey Steve,

I guess I’m just not the biggest Kidd fan. I do see what you’re saying, however I also think the Mavs are not the greatest place for Kidd. As you wrote in the column, they’re now the 26th quickest pace in the league. Maybe he’ll speed them up, but I don’t know if that’s in their best interests. Dirk doesn’t strike me as the ideal big man to pair with Kidd. Their pick and roll wouldn’t be as effective as say, Sam Cassell and KG (hint hint) because teams will gladly let the pickee sag a little towards Dirk rather than fight to stick with Kidd. Dirk also isn’t really an athletic guy that’s going to run the floor and throw down an alley-oop. Dallas is playing so much more in the half court, that I am not convinced that the trade off from Kidd setting up teammates, to Harris creating his own shots is really that significant.

I just think with the way Harris has developed this year, he and Terry are a pretty forceful point guard tandem. And really, I think I’d rather have the Harris/Terry and Diop/Dampier duos than Kidd/Terry and rely on Dampier to get it done inside.

It’ll be interesting. I don’t think it put Dallas past LA, San Antonio, or many even Phoenix… but I’m willing and ready to admit if/when I’m wrong.

by Big Ticket on Feb 14, 2008 2:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Offensive rebounding is overrated anyway because it requires a missed shot. Setting screens – perhaps. I’ll give you that one.

By the way, check how many true seven footers are out there and chart their rebounds and blocks per 40. Diop is in the middle of that pack. Chris Kaman, Andrew Bynum, Patrick O’Bryant, David Harrison, Darko Milicic and D.J. Mbenga average more blocks per 40. Just look at that list! Some Diop is not as good as (Kaman, Bynum and Milicic), but he’s better than Mbenga, O’Bryant and Harrison.

Look at the guys in his rebounding range – Jamaal Magloire, Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Carlos Boozer, Zach Randolph, Nazr Mohammed, Johan Petro, Sam Dalembert, David Lee, Anderson Varejao, and Adonal Foyle. Again, Diop is in the middle of this group, despite being one of only 2 other 7 footers in this group.

What am I getting at? You can’t coach height and if you’re 7 feet, you can suck and still be good!

By comparison, Marcus Camby doesn’t suck. One day I will sit down and develop the “sucks” stat. Then it will explain all.

by Jon76MVN on Feb 14, 2008 4:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jon76MVN said:
Offensive rebounding is overrated anyway because it requires a missed shot. Setting screens – perhaps. I’ll give you that one.

Jon,

I’m having a hard time believing you actually said that, and I’m really not sure what to say. Sure, if a team hits every shot it takes, then offensive rebounding becomes obsolete. But here’s the catch: There isn’t a team in the history of the game that has shot 100 percent from the field. In fact, most basketball teams don’t even hit half of their shots. This season, no NBA team is making 50 percent of its field-goal attempts. Because these players are human, that’s the reality of it. They are going to miss. However, taking more shots is more conducive to scoring more points, because you can’t score without shooting. As such, rebounding those missed shots and allowing one’s team to have second and third chances on a particular possession is an invaluable skill.

I’m really not even sure how else to address that point. That’s an insult to the lunch-pail guys of this league if I’ve ever seen one. That said, there is always a chance that I’m misconstruing what’s being said here, and as such, I would be curious to hear you expound upon this point.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Feb 14, 2008 7:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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