Signs for the 2nd Half
Rondo, Team Improve in KG’s Absence
The Celtics started the season with one of the best offenses in the league and carried that up until just after their first west coast swing. The team had the 1st ranking in team FG% and was top 5 in asst/FG, points, 3 pt shooting, and points in the paint-all in all quite a showing for a unit thrown together over the summer.
But the team was overly-reliant on GPA early in the year, a clear byproduct of the team's focus on building their team defense during training camp. The team went into the season with a plan toward developing the offense throughout the season and that started with running base sets for GPA and growing from there. A simple chronological study of game film from season’s beginning will attest to the relative simplicity of the overall offensive attack.
Once opponents had gotten a couple of month’s worth of film on the Celtics however, the team's offense begun to sputter. Rajon Rondo's injury while out west in Utah furthered this decline as the team's lack of a competent back-up PG was exposed. After the team returned from its victory against the Lakers there was a prolonged offensive drought. The team saw sizable declines across the board in its offensive potency over the next few weeks.
Up until that point in the season the team was getting inconsistent contributions from all but GPA. James Posey and Eddie House were the next closest to being consistent, but they were both a hit-or-miss proposition after a fast start. Perkins and Rondo were off-and-on during this time and no one else from the bench was bringing it every night. The team was overly-reliant on its 3 stars and it was beginning to take its toll.
...then KG went down...
In his absence the team was forced to re-configure its attack around Pierce and Allen with the slack for KG's absence being picked up by the remaining Celtics players. With KG sidelined there was an offensive and defensive void to be filled and a number of Celtics have answered the call.
Rajon Rondo, Leon Powe, Tony Allen, and Glen Davis have all come to the forefront to fill the "Big Tickets" big shoes. Rondo especially has upped his production and blossomed into a surrogate "third star" to keep the pressure on the opposition with his scoring and playmaking. Rondo has also increased his defensive consistency-specifically on pick-and-roll situations.
Rondo's confidence has grown and with it has come a sense that he may have turned a permanent corner in his young career. He is attacking the basket with regularity and looking for offense when the team's overall offense stagnates.
His energy has been infectious for players such as Tony Allen, who has begun to round into pre-ACL form over the past two weeks. Powe has benefited as well. The chemistry between Powe and Rondo has increased substantially on a game by game basis which has helped to invigorate the formerly slumping offense and re-constituted the team's rebounding grit.
One of the more overlooked elements of Rondo's improvement has been the effect it has had on Ray Allen's game these past few weeks. Allen had been handling a heavier load of the pick-and-roll game for the Celtics offense prior to KG's departure and hadn't quite found a balance point in the team offense.
As Rondo has increased his ball-handling and playmaking responsibilities, Allen has been free to roam the court and do what he does best-move without the ball and take advantage of his lethal mid-range game. This increase in movement has allowed Ray to penetrate to the basket with greater ease and added a new dimension to his attack, which in turn has improved his effectiveness in the pick-and-roll game.
When KG returns to the court he will find a team that has a much stronger on-court identity than the one he last saw. The star power of GPA was the catalyst for the Celtics historic start to the season. But as much as these 3 heroes have meant to the resurrection of this franchise, it may be the temporary removal of the team's brightest star that has allowed the rest of the supporting cast to define themselves.
Rajon Rondo has taken his first turn in the spotlight and is a better player for it. Leon Powe has followed suit as well. With Allen/Allen building up steam and Glen Davis looking capable of big-game contributions, the 2nd half Celtics may just be a much better TEAM, 1-13....Ubuntu indeed...
0 recs |
19 comments
Comments
Nice analysis Eric. I agree that Rondo looks to have made the turn, I think the proof of that though will ultimately come when KG returns, and then again in the playoffs.
by Green17 on Feb 15, 2008 7:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I LOVE Rondo’s aggressiveness with driving to the hoop!!!!!!!
by md300m on Feb 15, 2008 7:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nice, insightful analysis. Not an easy task but managed in a very professional way. Kudos!
What was not emphasized but may gain in importance for the second half of the season are the two VACANCIES on our roster as well as the inadequacy of the perpetually injured Scott Pollard. That he was injury prone was well cautioned even before he was signed but he has shown himself to be more an after-thought than a useful chip.
While I recognize that good big men are hard to find, I find it equally baffling that we would choose to stand pat rather than begin developing a promising big man in one of those vacant roster spots. Danny has shown himself to be very adept at recognizing NBA potential (as in his penchant for shrewd drafting) but seemingly now too focused on “veteran” additions at the apparent expense of adding a promising “project” to fill at least ONE roster spot.
by moskqq on Feb 15, 2008 7:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if when KG finally returns it’ll have any ill-effects on the squad.
by mcpu40 on Feb 15, 2008 8:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good article Eric. As you have pointed out, the Celtic offense has actually been better in this stretch without Garnett than it was before he was injured. I do not think that this is, in any way, an indictment of Garnett, but does say A LOT about how wrong minded this offense was before his injury. There is simply no way that you lose a player like Kevin, and improve over a stretch like this, if things were being run right to begin with.
The main reason that the offense has improved is that Rondo is a better point guard than Paul Pierce or Ray Allen. It really isn’t a lot more complicated than that. I think that Doc realized this during the Magic game. Without Kevin there, Paul and Ray’s deficiencies were put into stark relief. Doc, in desperation, basically stripped Paul and Ray of their “point responsibilities” at the end of the third quarter, and put the offense entirely into Rondo’s hands for teh rest of that game. The way he did this was simple: he had a pick set for Rondo almost every trip down. A 16 point deficit turned into a tie. A stagnant offense started to roll. It really hasn’t been the same since then.
The way that other players have stepped up, like Leon, Tony, and Glen, has been very important as well. That Rondo’s hand is on the tiller of the Celtic offense is the main reason that the offense has been able to function the way it has, though. I thought the fiasco we witnessed in during the Knicks game was proof positive of this. Rondo came out, and the wheels came off. It isn’t the first time that has happened during this stretch either. Rondo returns, and order is restored.
The pre-injury offense was supposed to be about running the ball through K.G. but in reality it was Paul and Ray who were dominating the ball. K.G. wasn’t getting it enough, and he often didn’t get it in a good position anyways. Rondo was vastly underutilized, to the detriment of the offense.
Putting the ball in Rajon’s hands, in K.G.‘s absence, hasn’t just made him far more effective, it has also made Paul and Ray better as well. Rajon is doing a lot of the dirty work to get them the ball where they can do a lot of good with it. One simple, yet very effective, maneuver is where Rajon does a dribble hand-off to Paul, and Paul immediately straightlines to the hoop. Ray, also, is getting the ball where he doesn’t have to dribble it around a lot, yet is able to do a lot with it. When the two of them get carried away with themselves, the results generally aren’t good.
What is really important is that Doc LEARNS from what happened. He cannot backslide into doing what was being done before. There was a lot of TALK about “execution” and “aggression”, about how we needed to play “power basketball”, and the need to run the offense through Garnett. This has been exposed as BS. Having Garnett is a HUGE advantage for this team, but the way he was being used, and the style of ball which we were playing was NOT GOOD. The fact of the matter is that we have missed Kevin’s defensive presence and rebounding, but really haven’t missed his offensive presence, and you SHOULD miss a player like Kevin on that end… at least you would if the offense was being run right to begin with.
I believe that when Kevin comes back that we should continue to play the way we have been lately, just with Kevin out there. We can still do some of the things we did before his injury, but going back to the previous status quo would be a disaster. We haven’t “coped” on the offensive end over the last 9 games, we have broken out. Kevin’s great talent and ability should be added to that breakout. This team should be an offensive powerhouse, and Kevin is the kind of guy who can push us into overdrive. The Rondo/Garnett pick and roll should be THE money play for this team. A quick offensive pace is our best ally. There is no need for Rondo to take a reduced role when Kevin returns. Garnett should be a direct addition to what we are doing.
by MikeDfromNP on Feb 15, 2008 8:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Eric and also MikeDFromNP. I think that Doc may have been over relying on the GPA before Garnett’s injury and had too little confidence in Rajon. Ray Allen was the most misused. You can hardly blame Doc, those three guys are all stars and with the early season success and national media’s criticism of Rondo. Also at the beginning of the season Rondo was a little hesitant and perhaps slightly star struck by being with those 3. What has happened since is really wonderful — Rondo has risen his game and now everyone knows it. Its hard to miss those 20 point games, 10 assist games, 10 rebound games. Glowing compliments from Isiah Thomas national media and opposing PGs. This offense will run through Rondo and Rondo is on the path to being an All Star (It might take a couple of years for him to get there). He has passion like KG has passion. He makes the big plays in the big games. And he is always listening and working on his game. Combine that with his obvious physical gifts and the fact that he is a smart player as well, the future is really bright for this guy.
by GreenBalls on Feb 15, 2008 9:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Garnett were like an Iverson, then he’d certainly hurt the team chemistry, considering iversons penchant for jacking up shots and taking away shots from other players. Instead expect Garnett to glide back into the rotation, and fill in any holes that the team is missing now, like rebounding, passing, and interior toughness. Our C’s could be more fierce in the second half than in the first half.
by fizzyice on Feb 15, 2008 9:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’m thinking of changing my name from tommyfan to rondollah.
He is fun to watch & if the C’s are going to bring home 17 he will have to keep this up.
Hope Big baby heals…..any news on his injury?
by tommyfan on Feb 15, 2008 10:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree with a lot of what MikeDfromNP has to say about the underutilization of Rondo. But, I also think that it was pretty logical for Doc to run the offense through Garnett, given his effectiveness at passing the ball. And certainly the early offensive onslaught didn’t discourage this strategy.
However, in Garnett’s absence, something interesting happened. Rondo’s assertiveness is not the only thing that changed (and by the way, Doc has been saying all season that he’s trying to get Rondo to be more agressive, so I’m not sure who’s to blame for the early lack of it). I’ve noticed that Rondo now runs the pick-and-roll with Pierce at Garnett’s high-post spot. Because it’s Pierce and not Garnett, the defense is a lot more afraid of the pick-and-pop than the roll, so they step up instead of sagging off. When they used to sag because of Garnett, it turned Rondo into a jump-shooter and he (understandably) didn’t take that shot with great confidence. He’s obviously more confident in his shot now, but he’s right in thinking that it’s not the best shot the team can get. But now, with the defense stepping up and playing tight, it plays right into Rondo’s strength and he’s either blowing by or handing it off to Pierce who slips through the defense easily.
On the other side of the court, you have Powe getting the open looks that Perk was getting early in the season. I wonder if when Garnett comes back, the Cs would consider leaving Pierce at this high-post spot and having Garnett play the opposite block. Imagine the possibilities. The pick-and-roll would be more effective because you wouldn’t have Garnett’s defender coming over to help. And then, if you got help coming from the opposite wing, you could swing the ball and get Garnett the ball in the low block going one-on-one. If Garnett got the ball in the position that Powe has been getting it he’d score 30 a night, or have 10 assists a night because of the frantic switching that would take place to get to him.
The problem would be what to do with Perk. This play would only work when the Cs play small so you could have either Scal or Posey camping out at the 3 point line. With Perk and Garnett in there together it just wouldn’t work because you don’t want Garnett camping out on the wing and becoming a spot-up shooter. We’ll see. I’m fascinated to see what happens.
by migit on Feb 15, 2008 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Can I second the:
“The Rondo/Garnett pick and roll should be THE money play for this team.”
Both of these guys can send some sick dishes to Pierce or Allen or the big under the basket if the opposing team collapses on pick and roll.
A Rondo/Garnett pick and roll should really be evaluated as a primary offensive set to get things going.
As opposed to a Ray Allen pick and roll which somehow sends Ray careening to the half-court line. Anyone else notice that? The 8 time All-Star does NOT seem to know how to run a pick n roll.
by newyorkceltics on Feb 15, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Doc has maintained all season that he would like Rondo to be more aggressive…KG going down just made it obvious to Rondo that he needed to pick up the scoring load and take it to the rim.
Doc has been consistent on this all season, he didn’t have a revelation during our “struggles” that Rondo should handle the ball more, he has said it all season.
by WillyBeamin on Feb 15, 2008 10:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
No matter what, I’m confident that Doc will screw things up once Garnett comes back. They’ll go back to running the ball through him in the high post to start offensive sets. Just watch.
by dobbs on Feb 15, 2008 12:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Question:
Nothing on you dobbs, but why does Doc get such a bashing on this site, not so much this year, but overall he gets hammered..still.
Someone questions KG and they’re on an island in their thoughts…even though he’s played just 41 games in a Boston uniform.
Doc will be just fine…coach of the year IMO.
by mcpu40 on Feb 15, 2008 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Eric, good analysis..mcpu40 you’re right Doc gets bashed on this side…41-9 nuff said … he (like the team) is getting to know their personalities, abilities, weaknesses, etc…the job he has done with all the injuries over the last couple of weeks speaks volumes…
by Fastbreak on Feb 15, 2008 2:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Over the last 10 games Rondo is ranked 3rd among PGs in Efficiency per 48 behind Calderon and CP. His EFF and EFF48 numbers are 20.7 and 31.34. That’s a 59% and 55% improvement over the 36 games he played in up to then.
That’s a huge step up.
by colincb on Feb 15, 2008 2:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
There is nothing to criticize about the coaching staff’s job this year. 40-9 playng against other pro teams is the scorecard. If the Doc-bashers want to credit Thibodeau 100%, they are foolish. Doc, after all enables/disables Thibodeau.
KG will not have “ill effects” on the squad when he returns. Jesus,Mary & Joseph!!!!
Rondo has been brilliant and another thing that has developed over the last 10 games is Tony Allen’s ability to handle and dish. His passing has been often dazzling. Forget about another point guard.
Pollard has got to buckle his chinstrap and earn his money. Or cut bait and go after Allred. I agree with Brickowski on that one.
Finally, while Perk has improved his hands dramatically, both Powe and Big Baby are superior offensive finishers and hopefully the rotetion includes them when KG and Perk are back.
While I’d like to see Pruitt, Leon was worth the wait and I’ll trust Pruitt is on similar learning curve. Leon is so much better this year than last year with his role and comfort on the court.
Man, this is great!
by Wildblu1 on Feb 15, 2008 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I just hope that when we are back to healthy that the second tier players don’t screw things up with their new found confidence. When they are in the game with the stars they need to defer to the stars for the most part. When they are sitting then they can be the offense. When needed the experience and confidence is great, but they need to know the pecking order! I am most worried about TA.
by EJPLAYA on Feb 15, 2008 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
one thing earlier, often when garnett shot there were too few to go after the offensive rebound. he hit a lot but when he missed, the ball went to the other team. the pickand roll to rondo might remedy that. good comments all around on this post.
by nazzbo on Feb 15, 2008 6:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I just want to re-iterate the point I made at the beginning of the article, which pointed out that the Celtics offense was NUMBER ONE IN THE LEAGUE through 35 games..they were top 5 in every meaningful offensive category…
…so to say that it was foolish for Doc to run his offense through GPA when they are clearly the most important pieces to get functioning well together at the outset of the the season…
…the team’s offensive struggles only begun once the league figured out the basic stuff that GPA was doing…the next logical evolution of the team’s offense was to begin to utilize Rondo more effectively and then deepen the rotation by getting more out of the bench players…
…I think Doc has done the logical thing at every step thus far this season…the progress of the individual players on this team and the opportunity these players have received have happened in an order that makes sense based of the team needs:
1. establish a defensive presence
2. Get GPA on the same page offensively
3. Flesh out the rotation
by BillfromBoston on Feb 15, 2008 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs























