I wonder how the recent All-Star selections influenced Marion’s level of contentment in Phoenix. Did you notice that Marion wasn’t even on the list of players who were snubbed?

It’s a shame, too, because in my opinion he is a superior player at his position than the post-injury Amare Stoudamire. Marion grabs an insane number of rebounds for a 3, he has a reliable (if odd-looking) shooting stroke, a great vertical leap, and he is a gifted passer and defensive presence.

I don’t have raw statistics for this, but when Marion has been out, the Suns have been absolutely ragged. But without Stoudamire? Hell, they cruised right along for most of the season without him a couple of years ago. Their jack of all trades in Marion is an integral part of their lineup.

Mark my words: The Suns will be in “Oh-god-what-have-we-done” mode just a few games into the Shaq acquisition.

Great article!
One comment: I think you are absolutly right about Marion’s honour obsession and i agree that’s what’s driving him to agree to this trade, but I think he’s only going to spend half a season in Miami. His contract ends this season with a player option on the next. I think he’s going to opt out and sign with a team that will give him max money and…respect. He won’t win a champoinship but if he wants to be the most respected player on a lottery team – he’s doing the right thing.

i have no idea what is inside marion’s head or gm kerr’s, but marion is one smooth player. if this trade occurs, i see both teams using their new players in other trades to rearrange their teams’ chemistry.

Maybe the Suns can change their “system” to fit Shaq. Even a fast break oriented team like the Suns spends 80% of their time in the half court..

The Suns have to be aware that no matter how many regular season games they win, they are not built for playoff success. Stoudemire cannot effectively guard big men like Duncan, Nowitzki and Gasol/Bynum and frequently is sadlled with foul trouble when called upon to do so. Kurt Thomas was very valuable to them in last year’s playoffs even though he is undersized. Their answer to that was to dish him to Seattle for financial reasons.

In their recent home game against the Spurs, Stoudemire once again got in early foul trouble against Duncan. The Spurs were awful except on defense in the second half and won at the end because Phoenix had no answer for Duncan as well as Ginobili driving the lane in the 4th quarter.

Perhaps this is coloring their thinking as to the acquisition of Shaq. Since I’m a Spurs fan (and definitely not a Suns fan, either of their system or their crybaby coach), the trade rumor gives me mixed feelings. On the one hand, the idea that Shaq will be a big round peg in a square hole appeals to me, but the other side is saying that it could just work if the Big Fella has anything left. Motivation, always a concern with Shaq, should not be a problem. There’s revenge against the Lakers to reap and another ring to chase.

Marion is the most overrated player in the league. He’s not an all-star caliber player.

I’m guessing inside Riley’s mind here but …. I think he views this as a win-win situation. He’ll hope Marion opts out so he can have some cap space but he’ll be alright with it if he stays. Especially considering his expiring deal will be a trade asset.

Marion is going to be just as unhappy in Miami because D-Wade is taking all the credit down south. Just the way life is. Marion gets too much credit for what he does.

Suns-Centric

Well this deal puts them back amongst the contenders. They simply had no chance to win 4 series in the playoffs with that team. Whether they’re better? Ehhh depends on D’Antoni.

D’Antoni scares the heck out of me. He’s been misusing Amare Stoudemire for three seasons – seriously how many post ups does this guy get? He does realize Amare is the future of the organization right? that he’s the only low post player on the squad (until now) right? ……. and they aren’t even my big complaints on D’Antoni – so there’s a lot of doubts around the place and whether D’Antoni can step up to the challenge.

I didn’t like this deal at first because I believe Shaq needs a whole team set up around him in order to be borderline-dominant … I’ve contested all year Shaq has a lot more left than Riley was getting out of him and I still believe that, that’s not my concern, my concern is that he has new limitations that a team has to be able to cover …. but as I thought about it I started to like the idea. Phoenix is loaded with shooters and guys who can pass the ball inside. They also have a bunch of guys who move well without the ball. They also have Amare standing next to Shaq to do whatever superhuman physical play is neccessary.

 Only worry … Can D’Antoni change the offense to work it around Shaq? Suns run less than ever, but the media doesn’t acknowledge this. What they do is run a high pick and roll offense which Shaq cannot do. Riley tried it and Shaq failed at it. It’s not going to happen. He also didn’t function too well with Haslem running the pick and roll and Shaq just going off the ball. Shaq needs to be first pass of the offense, he needs that ball in the post and from there he can dictate and run the show and be effective. That’s the only adjustment needed to make this work ….. but it’s a Monster adjustment especially in mid-season and when Nash has become an MVP under this system and when D’Antoni has spent 4 years using Amare and co. this way.

Amare is the biggest benefactor of this. I can’t think of anything better for this young man’s career. He’s going to learn how to win and how to play defense. Shaq is going to body up any and every centre to come along. So Amare’s going to take the little guy and just beat him up while being the help defender. He’s going to learn how to wreak havoc as a shotblocker. Shaq’s biggest effect is Amare’s defense.

Heat Centric

Well Marion is a Power Forward. That’s the first problem. The truth is that he’s a mediocre small forward and far more effective as a power forward. He doesn’t possess the ballhandling, shooting or passing to be a top level Small forward. It’s why Phoenix always played better with him at PF, because while those skills are under-par at SF, they are outright weapons at PF.

So this is Miami’s biggest problem now. It’s a problem for two big reasons: (1) Marion at PF requires a top post presence which Miami do not have and likely will not get in the draft (2) Haslem is their third best player after Wade/Marion and he functions best as a PF, and as a C next to Marion well that’s worryingly small

Next biggest problem for Miami is the lack of any useful PG. Williams has been a disaster this year. Smush is a disaster. Banks can do some things and could actually be effective for Miami but that will require Wade to take over about 50% of the point-duties which he can do and do well … but I hate to see because that means he’s not scoring and driving to the hoop and they’re the reasons he’s a potential MVP candidate. So Banks would limit Wade’s effectiveness but if they have to, they can make it work. Hard to see any FA signing changing this. Draft pick needs to be used here or an expiring contracts needs to net quality here.

No inside presence. I really have no idea how they’ll add that. Mark Blount as your best interior player? He’s capable of doing a job but you can’t rely on him showing up to do it.

No second scorer. Marion isn’t a good enough scorer to get this done, he can’t score on demand instead he gets most of his buckets off of broken plays which simply isn’t enough help to Wade. They can’t become a contender without a second scorer.

So four key areas where there are huge problems for Miami. If they work their whole roster they’re a playoff team but I don’t see how they make that next leap right now … they’re going to have to be patient for some time and then get real lucky when a team decides to trade

Just to play devil’s advocate a bit and why it might actually make sense for him to want to leave.

Phoenix has not that much longer at being at the top. Nash is old, Hill is old, Barbosa and Diaw are flawed with huge contracts, Amare is a ticking timebomb. Phoenix is at best the third best team in the West right now, and the Lakers and Hornets are very young with much brighter futures. So if he doesn’t think they are winning it this year, next year and the following years are even less likely.

Thus, he goes East which is much weaker (the third best eastern team may not even make the playoffs in the west), is teamed up with a great player in Wade, going to a better city to live in for a younger guy, and going to a team that will likely get a high draft pick (though Marion makes them appreciably better). If he stays in Miami, the Wade and Marion combination will be very good, if they stay pretty damn bad you can add a high lottery pick in what should be a good draft deep draft and all of a sudden the Heat are relevant and contenders next year.

Steve, nice article. But I think you are wrong in one key respect, which I think gives Marion an out. (I’ll concede that Marion’s a nut, but even nuts are right occasionally.) I don’t think the Suns are actually contenders for a championship. Three years ago, in 2005, when Stoudamire was young and a novelty and before his defensive liabilities overwhelmed his offensive talents, was their year. Now they are just a very talented team that can’t beat San Antonio or Dallas (or, I would argue now, New Orleans) in a seven-game series. (I know Suns partisans like to whine that Stern robbed them in the SA series last year, but they are deluding themselves.) Trading Kurt Thomas away only made that situation worse. And it’s not just that they can’t play defense but that they are soft, selfish, and limited. Nash of course is brilliant, but Stoudamire, Diaw, and Barbosa are one-dimensional players, and Stoudamire at least has to have his shots. This team is a more functional version of the Knicks: lots of talent but poorly balanced and with no real competitors (except Nash). In that respect, it’s not that crazy for Marion to want to play with Wade, Haslem, Riley, and, I don’t know, Derrick Rose?

That said, adding Shaq to this motley bunch only makes the situation worse and is probably the silliest thing I’ve ever heard.

Kedrick Brown is the centerpiece. Marion is a gimme