Daily Babble: One Horrendously Failed Prediction and a Front Line of Hope for One Team's Future

by Steve Weinman on Mar 12, 2008 11:00 PM EDT in NBA Articles

We open today with an excerpt from the "Things Your Humble NBA Columnist Actually Wrote" segment of the program, which is where we demonstrate the type of stuff that helps keep your humble NBA columnist from being anything other than humble about his (my) prognostication skills.

Going back to my days over at Taking it to the Rack at Most Valuable Network, I actually wrote the following in my preview of the Western Conference for this season:

8. Memphis Grizzlies: New coach Marc Iavaroni is a keeper who will help permanently change the culture in Memphis. To the surprise of many, Darko Milicic will prove himself worth the money, and he will be in the running for recognition as the league's most improved player. With Pau Gasol, Mike Miller and Rudy Gay all raring to go, the only major question mark right now as at the point. The decision to go with Damon Stoudamire for the time being represents a belief in Memphis that this team can get to the playoffs right now. We agree.

I can't believe I'm admitting this.

Milicic has yet to prove himself as anything except for an overpaid guy whose production has declined this season. The only place Pau Gasol was raring to go was Los Angeles. It appears that culture change has yet to arrive. And entering Wednesday night, the 15-48 Grizz had the third-worst record in the NBA. I haven't even mentioned yet that the Grizz were slated to come in ahead of Golden State and the Lakers in these projections. It might be possible for a prediction to turn out more terribly than this one has, but I'm not sure how.

All that said, while I have no choice but to concede that this year's pick didn't go so well, there is still hope for the future in Memphis, and for all Mike Conley's virtues, that hope might well have plenty to do with three individuals on the front line.

All of Steve's daily posts can be found in the CelticsBlog: NBA blog. Check him out!

The first is the easy one at this point, the one who became a much better pro than many expected. For all his slacking and apparent disinterest during his days at UConn, Rudy Gay has become a very respectable NBA player early in his career. He certainly has a ways to go as far as his passing and discipline is concerned, but the explosive athleticism that observers always knew he had has come to the forefront with increasing regularity. He is attacking the rim hard, shooting an acceptable percentage from the field (45.7), keeping defenses honest with some decent outside shooting (37.6 percent from deep) and grabbing more than six boards per game, which isn't shabby for a small forward. With wondrous quickness and a wingspan of incredible proportions, Gay has shown signs this season of becoming the defender that his body will enable him to be if he is willing to commit to putting in the work. Scoring 19.9 points per game, he has taken a dramatic step forward in his sophomore professional campaign, and he has at least provided one of the few reasons for long-suffering Memphis fans to be excited this season.

Next, believe it or not, is the man who many see as destined to be forever known as the dude Joe Dumars drafted in between Bron and Melo. Indeed, Darko Milicic has had a rough first year in Memphis and hasn't lived up to the expectations that came with some late-season production last season in Orlando and a $21 million contract this off-season. But there is still a ways that this guy has the capability to go. While Milicic may be in his fifth season, it is worth remembering that he was absolutely buried on Larry Brown's bench in his first two years in the league and didn't see much action for the first half of his third campaign in Detroit prior to being traded to the Magic. In many regards, the 22-year-old Milicic is still a very green pro baller.

Though Milicic's scoring and rebounding hasn't been ideal, it is crucial to remember that he barely playing 24 minutes per game, and he is still blocking 1.7 shots per outing. He is already showing signs of becoming a force defensively, and continued work with defensive maven Marc Iavaroni as player and coach move into season two in Memphis together -- as well as the maturation of the perimeter defenders around him -- will only help him grow in that regard. The southpaw has shown flashes of being able to hold his own inside offensively, and the man has the size to hit the boards well. If he can step up to the point of upping his field-goal efficacy toward 50 percent, averaging a double-double and becoming an even better interior defender than he already is (all of which really is doable), the neophyte legitimately could become a big difference-maker for the Grizz.

Finally, there is the man who needs to be freed. This the man who is best known for a blocked shot of enormous importance in his college days (the one that sealed the NCAA tourney clincher over Kansas in 2003) but who is also an athletic freak who has done nothing but produce when given big minutes. At 6-foot-9 but just 219 pounds, the concerns coming out of Syracuse were that Hakim Warrick wouldn't be able to hold his own inside in the NBA. Thus far this season, when he has been given the chance, he has done just that. Warrick has started 13 of the 56 games he has played in, averaging 16.8 points, 8.6 boards and 50 percent shooting as a starter for the Grizzlies. Like Gay, Warrick is blessed with a sizable wingspan and has a fair bit of jumping ability and more than his share of quickness for a 6-foot-9 power forward. Ideally, Warrick probably comes off the bench as a high-energy combo forward once the Grizz have acquired a more dominant post player to put in place at the four, and he would likely excel in that spark plug role. But until then, the man deserves to play and to keep proving his worth for this young team.

Undoubtedly, the present is bleak in Memphis. But with a front line that is more up-and-coming than might meet the eye -- and never mind that the team has two of the league's most promising rookies in the back-court in Mike Conley and Juan Carlos Navarro -- a coach who will only be more comfortable in year two and plenty of cap space moving forward, the Grizzlies might not be quite so far away from returning to the realm of the competitive as they often appear to be.

Tweet Comment 6 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

good analysis steve. darko, so far, is the albatross around dumars’ neck and now wallace’s. warrick and gay to me are worth more than a bryan gomes and outside of mike miller, they will be lottery team with talent but losing, just like the c’s were.

by nazzbo on Mar 13, 2008 9:14 AM EDT reply actions

Yes your prediction was terribly wrong but I thought Gerald Green was a future All Star.

I really don’t think Chris Wallace possesses any especial intuition. He’s a nice, loyal, company man who probably will never make the right bold move. He’ll make a bold move or two but probably too late or because the media is on him. He’ll hold this job for a few years and then get fired. Rudy Gay, Warrick etc cannot feel too good with him at the controls.

by Wildblu1 on Mar 13, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions

I feel bad for Darko, I’d love to see him get some help. Only two perimeter players on that team play defense and that’s Lowry and Conley, it’s an open lane all night long and Darko is getting a lot of punishment.

Earlier in the year Darko had defensive efficiency numbers comparable to DeSagana Diop but they’ve vanished. He’s getting murdered right now. That starting unit is getting murdered right now, by every team every night. They aren’t good enough to do anything.

Be nice if he had a coach (I’ll do a seperate comment to vent my Iavaroni related displeasure).

Why doesn’t Robert Parish have an assistant coaching job in this league? He’d be great for someone like Darko

I expected more from Darko this season but it hasn’t happened, I’m starting to lose some confidence in the young man. He had impressed me in the past, unlikely an all-star talent but a quality starting centre on a good team was my expectation. Now I’m wavering a bit, unsure of where to move the bar to.

by Who on Mar 13, 2008 11:42 AM EDT reply actions

Iavaroni has been awful

I loved the signing when Memphis announced it. Lead assistant under D’Antoni. Probably has a good feel for fast break basketball and offensive schemes. Assistant under Pat Riley. Probably knows something about defense. Probably knows something about the X’s and O’s. Probably a good strategist. Director of player development for Riley. Probably can help improve young players. Big rep as a big man coach. He was the primary coach on Amare during his development. Runs some well regarded big man camps during the summer. Played 7 years in the NBA under great coaches like Billy Cunningham and Jerry Sloan. Regarded as a very intelligent player, a versatile player, a defensive minded player, a hard working player. You play under Jerry Sloan you probably understand movment in the half court. Former NBA player so he probably can relate well to the players. NBA Champion, he started on that team too.

Now that’s an impressive CV for a first time head coach.

What’s the result? He’s good at all systems but great in none. He takes from one and mixes it with the other with terrible consequences.

He has made Randy Wittman look like a competent coach.

Marc Iavaroni has been awful. God-awful. Disgraceful.

The question becomes, are you convinced he’ll get better with time? I have no idea, not really. I’d fire him. Start again.

Sam Mitchell had a rotten start his first season but started turning it around during his second year. So maybe time is all that Iavaroni needs. Then again I had Mitchell pegged as a future CoY back in 1994 (Terry Porter and Avery Johnson were two others I thought would make great head coaches). I still had some belief that he’d turn it around.

Do I have that belief with Iavaroni? No. Maybe he’ll make a success of it, maybe he won’t. I really have no idea but I’m very doubtful.

There is literally nothing that I like that Iavaroni has done.

by Who on Mar 13, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

I’m going to talk about six players:
(1) Pau Gasol
(2) Rudy Gay
(3) Darko Milicic
(4) Mike Miller and running a fast break offense
(5) Damon Stoudamire and Mike Conley

Pau Gasol[/b]

Iavaroni never figured out how to use Gasol. He didn’t fit into anything Iavaroni tried. We’re talking about a player who has a low post game, who’s good on the screen and roll, is an excellent passer, has a jump shot out to 17 feet, is very intelligent. We’re talking about an offensive machine that fits into any offense in the league. He played grind it out style low post style under Fratello. He plays pass and move and cut motion basketball for Spain and now in LA. He has a great offensive package that fits into just about anything. Yet he never knew where he was supposed to be on the floor under Iavaroni, he was always lost out there. He never knew what Iavaroni wanted from him. Gasol is a smart player, you tell him what to do and he’ll go do it.

They started saying Gasol couldn’t play in a quick system. Well the Lakers play even faster than the Grizz, how do you think he’s doing?

How do you mess this up?

Gay[/b]

There are zero reprocussions for this kid. He plays zero defense, he breaks offensive plays, he stops passing the ball, he looks to go one-on-one when the pass is available, he doesn’t use his teammates well.

Now Rudy Gay has no real option but to go one-on-three several times a game but he absolutely did when he had a 20 point low post scorer and Mike Miller on the wing plus a few PGs who can play for the first half of the season.

I loved Mike Conley’s first few games back after injury. It was heaven, he literally stopped passing Rudy Gay the ball when Rudy broke a play and threw up a silly shot. He just started running the offense back through Pau Gasol. It was so nice. The offense suddenly had some passing and movement to it, it had some order. Then they traded Pau Gasol.

Since day one Marc Iavaroni has tried turning the offense over to Rudy Gay, making him the number one option. He simply wasn’t and isn’t ready for it. His decision making is poor and he has no understanding of to help his teammates. I would have liked to have seen Iavaroni continue to play through Gasol until Gay was ready, and when he was that would have been a very good offensive combination.

Rudy Gay plays zero defense. Worst perimeter defender on the team. I’m shocked at how bad it is. I didn’t watch Memphis much his rookie year (because they sucked without Gasol, and tanked when he came back)[/i] but the few games I caught he did a solid job defensively. Every game I’ve watched this season he’s been atrocious [i](about a dozen games or so). A quick glance at some of those defensive numbers show that he’s been lousy defensively both seasons.

Rudy Gay is allowed to do whatever he wants and it’s slowing down his development. He’s learning bad habits and his coach isn’t protecting him.

Milicic

I was so happy that Darko had a big man coach. Iavaroni has done nothing for Darko this season. Darko hasn’t improved at all and he hasn’t changed how he plays at all.

Watch a real coach work with him, watch him play for his national team and watch how his coach uses him. What’s so hard? Make him your defensive leader and anchor, give him responsibilities that he can handle and let him build some confidence. Then start slowly involving him more as a scoring option, before that let him pass the ball a little like Perk does at the top of the key where he’ll do no harm.

by Who on Mar 13, 2008 12:43 PM EDT reply actions

Mike Miller[/b]

I don’t know how many times I’ve said this during the course of the season. It’s so often it’s hurting my head and it never changes.

You cannot run a fast breaking offense when you send your starting SG to the defensive boards every possession instead of him you know running the floor and giving his point guard a target.

Miller is grabbing 6.4 boards a game and was averaging around 7 until he picked up an injury a month ago. Rudy Gay is hauling another 6.1 rebounds. Both your wings are hitting the defensive boards.

How are you meant to have a fast breaking team when you send your wings to the glass?

At the start of the season you had two 7 footers controlling the boards for you. One is average and the other good, they can handle it. Why are you sending two more wings in there? Who’s your PG going to pass the ball too? Who are you beating down the floor? Where’s the layup going to come from?

It’s ridiculous

Stoudamire and Mike Conley

Mike Conley was the best PG in training camp and the best PG in pre-season. Why wasn’t he starting from day one? Lowry was outplaying Damon too, why not him? Why are you playing a worse player who has no future at your club over your PG of the future who’s also your best PG in the present.

Who knows how long it would have taken him if Conley didn’t get injured but I don’t reckon it would have been any quicker because Lowry was outplaying Damon too.

It set a horrible tone for the season. Worst perimeter defender and 3rd best PG. Why does Rudy Gay break his back on D when Damon is on the court being killed on every possession? Why does Mike Miller who’s another poor defender. How do you build stability because sooner rather than later you’re going to have to chop and change. Very bad decision.

by Who on Mar 13, 2008 12:44 PM EDT reply actions