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Kwame Brown: A Bust But Not Wholly Unproductive

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Four hours to kill in Kansas City International Airport last night led to lots of time cruising through the wonders of this here World Wide Web.  Well, maybe not cruising per say.  KCI does have the gift of free wireless Internet, but the speed of said Internet connection certainly leaves a bit to be desired.

Hey!  We're three sentences in, and we're already off topic (I'm shamelessly excusing my general scrambled nature due to the airport experience, which was a tour de force fiasco all around).  Long KCI rant short, the lengthy wait allowed me the privilege of stumbling on HOOPSWORLD's Stephen Litel's interview with Kwame Brown, who had some pointed comments about media perception of his career:

"They (the media) just try to make me out to be someone I'm not," Brown tells HOOPSWORLD. "Everyone who knows me or knows anything about me knows that, so that's what keeps me going. I mean, media is going to be media."

"Most guys don't take the time to get to know anybody because they write whatever sells the papers," continues Brown. "If there's a negative thing out about a guy, why waste your time trying to find out the truth? They just keep it going."

"I'll go to a team that wants me, I want to be there and I'll be healthy again," says Brown. "I'll get a full summer of work and not a full summer of surgery. I'll come back, ready to go."

Initial reaction:  Yeah, Kwame!  Easy column upcoming!  Time to rip on a player who has spent an entire career being absolutely useless!  Go crazy, SW!
 
Truth be told, I'm not feeling terrible about that initial sentiment.  But while it still holds a fair bit of water, it certainly isn't as on the money as one might think.

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All of Steve's daily posts can be found in the CelticsBlog: NBA blog.  Check him out!

Star-divide

That Kwame Brown has been a bust rests generally unquestioned.  To think that this guy was picked first overall in the 2001 draft -- two slots ahead of Pau Gasol, no less (and ten ahead of Kedrick Brown) -- remains an incredible indictment of Michael Jordan's ability as an executive.

You knew that much already.  That is what happens when a player is drafted first, doesn't work hard and winds up averaging 7.4 points and 5.7 rebounds per game in the first seven seasons of his career.  He is considered a bust, and rightfully so.

But too often, some of us (yours truly is certainly guilty as charged) fall into the trap of thinking that Brown has been completely useless as a pro, and the fact is that this isn't entirely the case.

It is easy to forget the fact that His Airness lost patience with Brown quickly enough in Washington that he earned the bust label with such rapidity that through his first seven seasons, he has averaged just 23.7 minutes per game for his career.  Only once has he cracked the 30 minutes per game plateau over the course of an entire season.  That year, his third in the league, Brown averaged career highs of 10.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game.  Nothing to brag about for a number one pick, but not terrible numbers either.  In fact, over the course of his career, Brown's per minute production has stayed in the same relative area, as he has compiled career averages of 12.4 points, 9.6 boards and 1.2 blocks per 40 minutes while shooting upwards of 48 percent from the field.  Those figures aren't great by any means, but they are at least close to respectable on a 'workmanlike' level.  Further, as certain studies have indicated (particularly this one by Tom Ziller), per-minute efficiency tends to remain constant with increased minutes.

Those statistics don't blow anybody's doors off by any means, but they do indicate that Brown hasn't been the complete black hole of productivity that we commentators sometimes paint him to be.   Prior to taking a look at the statistics last night, that is exactly the perception I had of Brown.

Chances are, a lot of that has to do with the fact that there are explanations galore as to why he never got more minutes.  He has spent the vast majority of his career out of shape and likely didn't have the physical endurance to be playing significant minutes.  Similarly, word since his days in DC has been that the man isn't the world's hardest worker, and that he spends too much time mouthing off and not enough time working on his game.  Hard head and soft belly aren't a good combination.

Meanwhile, the positive stats certainly don't tell the whole story.  As a result of his weight issues, Brown has never moved that well on the floor as a pro, thus preventing us from seeing the big-man athleticism for which he was touted coming out of high school.  He has never established himself as anything close to a dominant defender, and he spent far too much time attempting to fashion himself as a mid-range shooter offensively, which simply isn't something he can do at this point.  He needs to learn to get up the floor better, and he needs to stick to dunks, lay-ups and not turning the ball over as his primary offensive goals.

All those flaws have made him a horrendous number one pick.

But they don't necessarily make him the nothing of a player I have long considered him to be.

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm not a Kwame fan and never have been.  As has been made clear in this space before, I can really do without guys who don't put in enough work and who aren't killing themselves every night on the defensive end.  At first read, Brown's comments come off as a ridiculous, and in some regards, they still are.  This guy has failed to live up to every conceivable expectation that came with being picked first overall.  He has earned a reputation as someone who routinely isn't in shape and has from there been thusly labeled as someone who doesn't work as hard as he should.  Despite Brown's claims about injuries in recent years, those media assessments of his career still seem fair overall.  His guarantees about how strong he will be when he returns really weren't that necessary.  This dude really seems like one of the last who should be calling out the media.

And he probably is.

But with that said, for this writer at the very least, reading Brown's comments led to a harder look at his production over the course of his career, and it turns out that he is right about one thing: People like me may have been deservedly hard on him as a top selection, but chances are that we really have been too harsh on him so far as his overall worth as a basketball player.

Maybe that harshness no matter what comes with the territory of being a number one pick.  Maybe not.  But either way, Kwame Brown's career might be worth looking at from another perspective sometime.  Perhaps there is more hope for this guy to return as at least a serviceable player than many of us expect there to be.

I wouldn't count on it, but I wouldn't be so quickly to rule it out anymore, either. 

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Thanx for the topic Steve. You are right on the money about one key thing here. Kwame is a bust as a number one pick, but does that mean he is a bad guy? Hardly, imagine if Gerald Green had been picked number one? Kwame is a guy who should have been picked in the 20-25 range as a backup center ala Kendrick Perkins. Is Perk a bust? Is Kwame a bust at Perk money? They have comparable stats. Is it really Kwame’s fault that Jordan and some others bought into the high school star hype making (for them) a bad business decision?

If I am Danny/Doc I have to consider bringing him in during the off season for a sit down (W agent). I say " Kwame we would like to help you shed this ugly bust label that we dont think you deserve". Let him know we care and offer him the mid level at 3 years with and option. Have KG, Paul, Ray, Perk talk to him and say they want him and they can help sell him. Let Clifford ray be part of the discussions as well.

Kwame Brown wants some respect, who can blame him? An angry, motivated, and driven Kwame Brown in tandem with Perk would be a great front line beside KG for the next three years. Throw in Leon Powe and Big Baby, we are in great shape IMHO.

We wont get one any better in draft at position 28-30. 8)

by billysan on Mar 22, 2008 9:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Nice article as usual, Steve, but there’s a critical flaw in your argument.

You base a lot of your defense of Brown on “per-minute productivity.” The reason per-minute productivity is meaningless, is that it ignores all of the many various reasons a guy ISN’T averaging 40 minutes a game. Things like terrible defense or missed assignments (resulting in teammates having to work twice as hard), stupid turnovers, consistently not recognizing the open man, breaking plays, general lack of focus, etc.

Living in L.A. and having watched Brown a lot with the Lakers, I can tell you with certainty that he is guilty of al of the above, in spades. His PER, or whatever you want to call it, is meaningless because he will never be good enough, focused enough, to earn significant minutes on a good team. He is a liability. The fact that he occasionally scores and rebounds doesn’t make up for all of the bad things he brings to the court.

This is the problem with Hollinger’s PER. Stats sheets don’t show everything. Players earn the minutes they get. With rare exception, a guy who averages 15 minutes a game averages 15 minutes a game because there are serious flaws that prevent a coach from playing him more than that. Kwame Brown is a perfect example.

billysan, when you say, “An angry, motivated, and driven Kwame Brown in tandem with Perk would be a great front line beside KG for the next three years,” I can only assume you haven’t actually seen Brown play, and you are just going by the PER crap. Don’t be fooled. Kwame really does stink.

by Cousin It on Mar 22, 2008 4:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Cousin It,

I think we’re a lot closer on this issue than your comment seems to indicate.

I have my own share of issues with PER — and I don’t yet fully understand it — which is why you’ll almost never see it in this space. As far as teh per-minute production goes, I would agree completely that those numbers don’t tell the whole story. In fact, that’s precisely the point I made with Brown — after citing his per-minute production, as you saw, I spent multiple paragraphs discussing all the reasons why he (deservedly) has not received more minutes.

I’m with you all the way about stat sheets not showing everything. Just check my column on KG and Dirk the epitome of my thoughts on that.

But the place we disagree is where you claim that per-minute productivity is meaningless. For a player like Kwame, yes, it means less than it does for certain other players in the league whose lack of minutes are a result more of circumstances external to them rather than their own issues as a player. For those players, more minutes doesn’t necessarily mean decreased production.

That said, in the minutes Brown has[/i] played, he has been [i]more[/i] statistically productive than I perceived him to be. I wasn’t looking so much to ‘defend’ him, per say, as I was to indicate that my conceptualization of him (and I believe I’m not alone) had always been as someone who had been completely and utterly useless. He hasn’t been good, and really he has probably been substandard — and having watched him, I agree with every flaw of his that you cited — but he hasn’t been an absolute zero, as though many of us sometimes classify him that way.

As I mention in the column, I’m not a Kwame fan. Never have been, and more likely than not, I never will be. For my part, I could do without him on my team. But I think I could have been just that much fairer to him in my assessment of him over the years (and again, I believe this isn’t solely my conceptualization of him from my discussions with other NBA observers), and that is what I was looking to bring to light here.

Not a defense of Kwame, but simply a closer look at his resume.

Hope that clears up what I was saying.

As far as the issues of PER, per-minute stats, advanced stats in general and minutes are concerned, I think those are leaders into much deeper discussions, many of which I have been doing some research on over the past months and continue to learn about as much as I can. I’m intrigued by the differing stances on those issues and would be happy to discuss them more at your leisure. That said, for Kwame, I use them not to make the case that he should have been playing more minutes or that he is some stud, simply that he is [i]not as worthless as I sometimes perceive him to be. Not a ground-breaking conclusion, I know, but my thought for the day nonetheless.

Thanks as always for writing in. Looking forward to hearing more from you.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Mar 22, 2008 5:03 PM EDT reply actions  

I like Kwame but I can’t seem to make my mind up to what degree

On one hand he is one of the very best post defenders (Kurt Thomas types, post position defenders) in the league. He hardly ever loses post position, virtue of being 7-0 270lbs and very strong. He’s quick and long and bothers all post players shots. He does a good job of staying on his feet too, just letting his strength and length force a difficult contested shot.

Overall he’s a strong one-on-one defender and a mediocre help defender. He’s more like a stopper, you bring him on to trouble opposing bigs. He’s a solid rebounder. He’s functional or a little better when it comes to passing, post moves, finishing around the rim, short jump shots. That’s a lot to like.

Unfortunately he’s an idiot. That’s the counter and it’s vicious.

He’s a bad help defender because he doesn’t understand spacing or positioning. Someone of his size and athleticism should be having a huge impact. It’s especially irritating when you see how good of a job he does man-to-man. He’ll always need a top big help defender next to him. He also makes sloppy rotations which limit him as a team defender even more. The only way he helps your team D is that you can get away with not doubling if he’s on their best scoring interior player.

Offensively he has nice tools. If you watched him do individual drills you’d probably be drooling. He has a nice package of skills. He just has no idea how to use them inside a team concept or the assertiveness to exert his will.

I remember giving out about his inability to run the pick and roll when Bynum was out, it wasn’t that he couldn’t set a screen or roll or shoot or finish, it’s that he could do 4 things (4 solid basketball plays – pick, roll, create passing lane, finish) in one motion. He can give you one good basketball play but he can’t string them together. He has no understanding how all the little pieces fit together and that limits him (because he can’t help his teammates and they don’t help him, one-on-one stuff is his best option). That one play is indicative of so much for Kwame.

So with all that in mind, how much does he help your team? How good of a role player can he be? So many qualities, so many flaws. I can’t decide. There’s a lot to like.

by Who on Mar 22, 2008 6:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Don’t forget—Kwame asked for this: He wanted to be #1. Granted, we may want many things at 19 years-old that we later regret, but Kwame had more of a hand in the vicious cycle of expectations/production than he’d want to admit.

by We Rite Goode on Mar 23, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply actions  

Cousin It, I have seen Kwame play in person and much of what you say is accurate(as is Who’s assessment) The thing is, I think it has a lot to do with expectations. If Kwame was being compared to Centers who were taken at the 25th pick in the first round of the draft then we would be having a different set of expectations, wouldnt we?

Kwame is a fundamentals poster child for going to college for X amount of years prior to coming into the NBA. My point is that if he is willing to accept some tutelage or mentoring, accept some coaching, and become a midlevel guy financially he might still resurrect his career.

That is the front line guy I am talking about. Pure speculation but maybe a good risk for someone. 8)

by billysan on Mar 23, 2008 10:21 PM EDT reply actions  

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