Enjoy It While It Lasts

The great thing about the series of moves this summer is that it made the Celtics relvent again and gave them a three year window to win a championship but actually didn’t stick them with lousy long term contracts on aging players. Allen, Pierce and KG come off the books in 2010, 2011 and 2012 respectively. That should coincide with the exact year that their skills will begin to seriously diminish. The Celtics get to make a serious push at a title this year and next and then in 2009/20010 have Ray Allen and an expiring $18 million contract. If Allen is still effective, they can keep him and make another run at the title. If he is not, they can look to trade him to a team looking for cap space for a set of younger players. If they can’t do that, they have $18 million in cap space and KG and Pierce still with some tread on the tires to pursue a free agent. They then can do the same process with Pierce in 2011. If the Celtics are smart, they should be able to be a contender for the next five plus years thanks to last summer’s moves.

They have a 2-3 year window. After that, we’ll all be like kids at the pet shop window ogling at young all-stars like Al Jefferson.

One thing they can do starting this June is to invest money in young bench players that can develop. Instead of a Pollard, go after a young big man like Patrick O’Bryant, DJ Mbenga or DeSagana Diop (all unrestricted FAs this Summer) and try to develop that player. The same holds true at the guard position (Carlos Arroyo or JJ Barea anyone? Both are unrestricted FAs this Summer).

They also have to make some tough decisions on players like Tony Allen (RFA in June), Leon Powe and Glenn Davis, who has only a two-year deal.

They have to draft well. IMHO this year’s draft has a number of sleepers, particularly among the International players. And Red Auerbach would have somehow found a way to get a 2009 lottery pick and a shot at Ricky Rubio, even if it meant trading one of his veteran stars.

Lastly, they will have Ray Allen and his huge (18M) expiring deal to use at the trading deadline two years from now to bring in some younger talent and additional draft picks.

I do not expect the Celtics to win the title this year. I do next year and the year after when they’ve had more time playing together.
I also think we’re making way too much of their ages. 30,31, and 32 is not old by any stretch of the imagination, NBA terms or otherwise.

Well, Rondo is developing nicely and Perkins has his moments. So the real issue is how long Garnett holds up. Pierce and Allen can be replaced. Garnett can’t. KG is a once in a decade player.

Brick,

Garnett is going to hold up fine. He is a fitness fanatic and a physical freak. He should be an elite player until his contract runs out in 2012. My fear is that the Celtics will throw big money at him out of loyalty and get stuck like Miami with an aging big man making $20 million a year. As long as the Celtics don’t go crazy and give KG any more big money years, they should get their money’s worth this year and the next four.

IMHO their best shot at a title is this year, at least statistically. Every additional year increases the risk of a serious injury to one of the big three as they get older.

Maybe KG is a fitness finatic, but there is alot of mileage on those tires. Before this year he had already played more NBA minutes than Larry Bird.

Having said that, I would have no trouble giving KG big money in 2013 if he is still performing. But it would have to be a short deal: 2 years at the most. It’s those 6-7 year Kenyon Martin-esque deals that get teams in trouble.

I agree, Roy, that they have as much chance as anyone to win it. I’m just really expectting them to win until they’ve had at least two seasons together! Of course, I’ll be happily disappointed if they win it all THIS year. ;D

Regardless of how long it lasts, it sure beats waiting around for the lottery. I would rather have a good chance at winning one title at the risk of stinking than be just okay and never have a chance. Who would you rather have been the last 10 years, Utah who were always good but never a contender or Miami who generally have stunk but one a title? I would take Miami everytime.

They still have their MLE and their LLE, which I don’t believe they used this year. Plus they will have early bird rights on Davis and full Bird rights on Powe. I don’t think O’Bryant or Mbenga will cost anything close to the MLE, and neither will Barea. Diop or Arroyo might cost the MLE, but certainly not more than that.

It’s simply a question of how much the owners are willing to spend in luxury tax to prepare for the day when big three ride into the sunset, plus Ainge’s ability to select young players with untapped potential, both in the draft and in the FA market.

R.J. Buford has been a master at this, and if you think about it, San Antonio is in a similar position as the Celtics. (Yes, they’ve won titles and the Celtics haven’t, but that’s water over the dam.) They will be good so long as Duncan remains a dominant player. But they also have to think about replacing aging bench players like Robert Horry and Michael Finley with younger prospects against the day when Duncan is no longer around. They took a huge positive step in last year’s draft by stealing Tiago Splitter (who would have been a lottery pick had he not been playing on the same team as Luis Scola, a player whose excellence american fans are now beginning to realize) in last year’s draft, but more needs to be done in San Antonio.

i agree with tmcdon, 30, 31 and 32 aint that old

the coming nba finals and the next few years are going to be so damn exciting.

its been such a long wait!

The big advantage the Celtics have is that as long as KG is healthy there is always going to be a quality vet willing to play for the MLE for a shot at winning. Once KG goes, that appeal goes with it. If the Celtics are smart and a little bit lucky they should be able to get some good young players over the next few years to remain competetive after KG retires. But don’t anyone kid themselves. KG is another Bill Russel in that he makes the game easier for everyone around him. The Celtics are not going to replace him and the players left behind won’t look as good once KG is gone. But, that is the price you pay for having great players; you miss them a lot when they are gone.

“I can’t help but look forward towards an uncertain future.”

The flaw of this argument is that it assumes that rebuilding with youth, even up and coming stars like Al Jefferson, provides a certain future, which it most certainly does not. It is clear this forum cut its teeth during losing years and fans adjusted what interested them from winning, to enjoying watching players develop, since in the best season the C’s have had in 20 years, there is still fretting about what will happen down the road. We have had enough years of ‘looking ahead’ knowing the current season could not result in even going deep in the playoffs, let alone win a Title. This is the time to enjoy how good things are, not even for an instant consider long-term implications.

Going the other way with the utes was just as uncertain a future as worrying about how things will be once these current stars fade. The big difference is that with this team, we can realistically expect them to contend for a championship now. And has been stated many times by many people already, the modern NBA and the contracts and salary cap means that realistically, you can’t keep a young core together, if one or several of them start to get real good, they are going to want more money, it would be impossible to keep all of them.

I guess 47-12 is getting boring for some, so they must revert to the mode of wondering about how things will be down the road. Enough!! Enjoy this run, the future no matter which way it is planned is never a sure thing, so worrying about it now is just idle speculation that takes away from what is happening at this very moment.

i am not countin chickens or looking ahead to new chickens. i have to have faith in danny to choreograph the celtic revival. i don’t think he is going to rest on his laurels.

The Eternal exists only in the present…The “Forever” hangs out in the temporal game…Reading this thread makes me want to burst into a couple of choruses of Joni’s “Circle Game” or, better yet, Seeger’s “Turn, Turn, Turn.”…Hah!

I’ve mourned mightily our necessitated sacrifice of “Ute.” It’s Danny’s job to worry about the future. It’s the fan(atic)’s to savor this particular mango we are now presented with (at least until tomorrow evening)… ;D

Anybody who’s read my posts over the last six months we’ll know that I’ve been saying we have a window of three years including this one. I believe our best shot will come next year. Honestly, the NBA is a funny game and it is very hard if no impossible for a team to be in the tank one year and win the championship the next. Danny mortgaged our future for the present and I’m fine with that. What still sticks in my proverbial side is that the Lakers got Gasol for virtually nothing and he will be a Laker for many years.

THIS is the Brick that is enjoyable and valuable to read.

…Well, I don’t agree with KJ’s post because a GM’s job is NOT to be satisfied and then faces with a future unprepared for…its essential to plan 3-5 years ahead so as need arises, battle plans have been thought out…

That being said, there are almost inevitably some in-prime All Star players on the trade or FA market every year due to their team’s being in rebuilding modes or just perennially bad…

Boston has positioned itself financially to have another “3 year window” of being huge players on the FA and trade market as the contracts of GPA come off the books year-by-year…

If people want to look to the Spurs they provide an excellent example of how to effectively manage the cap…If I know Ainge, he will not sign any new players to mid-level deals that negatively impact the potential cap dollars for the 10/11/12 seasons…

If this season has shown us anything, its that with GPA playing at a high level, the team need only draft low-cost players and sign well-priced vets in order to maintain a contender…

Ainge knows this and I highly doubt that multiple MLE type deals will be going out to potential FAs unless the years given are in the 2-3 season variety-even then, it will have to be a high-value type acquisition, not some Segana Diop throw-away…

My guess is that a player like Rajon Rondo will probably receive his big money deal before his rookie contract is up in order to attempt to get him for less money than he’d command 2 years from now…Davis, Powe, TA-these players will be signed if they have minimal salary implications, but none will be given 5 million deals at 4-5 years precisely because Ainge has an eye toward “re-loading” down the line…

It’s RONDO’s future that Ainge has in mind and I think that Ainge knows that KG’s presence and ability to perform at a high level for many years to come will help to maintain Boston’s competitiveness and help to market the team to potential in-prime stars looking to go on a title run…

My first thought goes to Dwayne Wade, who’s team will be hard-pressed rebuild to “contender status” by the time he’s a FA…Wade has a good relationship with fellow Marquette Alum Doc Rivers and has shown his shrewd business sense when he re-upped with Miami for only 3 seasons.

But even if Wade isn’t the player the team ends up getting in 2010, (if any player) the team will inevitably have the option of getting into talks with regards to other players…the market oportunity will be there and the Celtics will have the resume and a quality core of role players and starts-albeit aging-to entice another team’s star to come secure the future alonside Rondo…

People should enjoy the ride this team is on now, but don’t for a second believe that Miami’s current situation is representative of Boston’s future…Shaq and KG will age quite differently, I can assure you…

Are some so conditioned by a decade and a half of losing that they can’t just enjoy the great team we have currently? There’s no reason why this team can’t be the start of a 10 year run of top teams that compete for the NBA title every year.

One thing Danny Ainge understood early in his tenure here was that he needed to make Boston a destination for top players once again. He has done that, and I expect the Cs to reload every year with talented supporting players, as well as snag one star with late draft pick.

The only way this team can be pushed off track long term would be if the owners shut off the money tap, but why do so if you’re selling every single regular season ticket, and hosting games deep into the playoffs?

Rondo is young and up and coming. Big Baby, as a rookie, is playing extremely well, Powe is an excellent young player. Perkins will never be an allstar, but he’s not a negative (20 rebounds against the Pistons, come on). The future of this franchise is far from bleak.

And yes, TripleOT, you are correct, we should all worry less about 4 years from now and enjoy what we have as fans now. Enjoy the ride everyone!

Perkins will be all star? :-\ If that’s the case than I’m Saddam Hussein.

Dear Saddam,

Reread that, I said Perkins will NEVER be an allstar!
thanks literacy :)

sorry, but this column was completely unnecessary.

Guys..guys… guys

IN DANNY WE TRUST ;)

TMC. I stand corrected at the gallows. Saddam.

Po, you’re going to make me start talking politics again!!!!

Doing well now does not necessitates doing poorly in the future. It’s a fallacy. The team is constructed differently, from a contract standpoint, than Miami was. With wise management, and a bit of luck, a good GM can keep a team competitive. I think Ainge can handle it. If PP and RA drop off precipitously, their big contract slots can be used to bring in high-level FAs.

Besides, even though I like Delonte and Gomes, I’ll take Rondo and Powe. There would have been no way to keep both West (who wants to start) and Rondo or to fit Gomes in with Baby and Powe, so those players are sort of unnecessary. And there were some interesting players available with the #5 pick, but Baby looks like he’s better than most of the players who went between 5 and 34 in the draft. Seriously, Al Thorton and Luis Scola and maybe Jamario Moon are the only guys who went between 5 and 34 who look to be much of an upgrade over him.

So, we gave up Jefferson. Who I was always in love with. Okay. That may be painful at times in the future. But only if he ever shows that he can lead a team to WINS. Which he hasn’t so far.

The upshot is that, we have some good young players (Miami would LOVE to have Rondo, Powe, Baby and Perk), plus financial flexibility. The future is far from bleak.

Jeff, ladies & gentlemen,

Great read by the ESPN roundtable about

“How will things shake out in the East?” It was a great read getting everyones thoughts… but the one that stood out for me was Question 5 Who are the three most important people in the East so far this season?

J.A. Adande wrote “the folks who ran the lottery machine: If the Celtics had landed one of the first two picks in the draft, they would be building their future around Greg Oden or Kevin Durant and would not be factors this season.”

The future…. Red Auerbach always said “THE FUTURE IS NOW”

Last night was proof that the Cs can win this year if the core stays healthy. They should get out of the East as no team has anyone who can guard KG. The Cs play defense at a very high level. That is needed to go deep into the playoffs.

of course the future is necessary, but we’re coming off the biggest win of the season, and a post entitled ‘enjoy it while it lasts’ is just typical Boston fan gloom and doom. It’s not like we’ve been on a three or four year run of pure winning, we’re two thirds of the way through our first winning season since 2005.

typical of the journalist mind, can’t smell the Roses.

….I got your case Jeff and I thought I put together a pretty good explination of why there is little need to fret over the future…this team will have a 5-7 year window-i’d bet money on it…and it will be because Ainge knows how to plan ahead and doesn’t “enjoy it” while it lasts..

To: BillfromBoston,

Both of your posts are right on. Your analysis of this team and its current and future prospects is extremely insightful and well thought out. Kudos to Danny “Red” Ainge. It took him a while to build up his hand. No watch him roll!

unless serious injury,KG at 37-39 yrs old will be a better NBA player than AL at 29 yrs old…Pierce has 4 or 5 top yrs left,he’s actually getting stronger/more efficient…Rondo will improve….and with Ray’s ending deal in 2 summers???we’ll get 2 assets outta that…we will be better in 3 yrs than we will be this or next year..the 2 oldest slowest most boring teams are Detroit & the Spurs,Suns and Mavs just got older…old is where it’s at and our main 2 aren’t even there yet…better days are still ahead