A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Coronation

by Jim Weeks on Apr 29, 2008 6:46 AM EDT in Green Bandwagon Comment 8 comments

I was so disappointed in this loss that I couldn’t even blog about it last night. Some things that stood out:

Joe Johnson was begging someone to play the Larry Bird to his Dominique Wilkins. And nobody did. There were several possessions were Boston needed a bucket to crush some momentum and keep the crowd out of it. To be fair Ray Allen’s three pointer around the 9:00 minute mark, which gave the C's a 78-72 lead was that type of shot. But they needed many more. Paul Pierce couldn’t hit a bucket to set up a and one situation just inside 8 minutes and then went 1-2 from the line. Josh Smith blocked a KG drive at the one point. And on and on.

KG had a tough sequence last night that will bring his critics come out of the woodwork.

- 8:08: He missed a straight on jump shot from about two feet inside the three point line

- 6:55: With the C’s up by three KG got the ball on the baseline where he was defended by Josh Smith. He held the ball for 5 seconds, which allowed the Mike Bibby to double. At that point KG threw it out to Eddie House who then kicked it to Ray Allen for a wide open three that did not go down.

- That Ray Allen miss was followed by a Joe Johnson bucket, which cut Boston’s lead to one – 79-78. The C’s came down and threw the ball to KG in the post who was defended by Al Horford this time. Bibby made a half-hearted double. While this did not put a lot of pressure on Garnett it did free up Eddie House. KG kicked to House who launched a three pointer that hit nothing but the opposite side of the backboard.

- 5:33: The C’s finally got the ball back, still leading by one, and KG inexplicably traveled out on the wing while looking to pass the ball. He took three steps from a standing position. On the following possession the Hawks tied it a after a defensive three seconds call and took the lead on a Josh Smith jumper.

- After Paul Pierce missed a jumper and Johnson hit a highlight reel three while Leon Powe lay on the ground Garnett got the ball in the post and earned a trip to the line. He went 1-2. Hawks 84 – Celtics 80.

- Johnson got in the lane for another basket after the C’s made a stop but could not corral the rebound. At the 3:12 mark Garnett went hard to the basket. Unfortunately Smith rejected the shot. Hawks 86 – Celtics 80.

To be fair Garnett did make some shots after that, including an impressive drive to the hoop where he finished over Smith. But the sequence I just outlined above saw the Celtics go from 3 points up to 6 points down. It gave the Hawks a ton of swagger and electrified the entire building. At one point I thought, WWKD – What Would Kobe Do? And I think we all know the answer.

But back to Joe Johnson. He scored 18 points in the fourth quarter alone. How terrifying was that? Ignoring the fact that this Celtics team is now in a dogfight just to get out of round one, I was terrified to think about possible future match ups. Not to take anything away from Johnson because he was spectacular. Yet he’s not on LeBron or Kobe’s level. Granted I don’t even like to look ahead right now. But there is no denying the fact that the vaunted Celtics defense disappeared last night. Also if a team can’t keep Atlanta from grabbing key offensive rebounds explain to me what the plan is if it comes across Dwight Howard. Not a good loss last night.

Throughout a by and large positive regular season there was one negative spot. And that was Tony Allen’s inability to get back on the court with confidence to play consistent ball. Several times in the 4th quarter Celtics fans had to think about the former Oklahoma State standout. Sam Cassell, Ray Allen and Leon Powe at one point (shades of the Nuggets sending Kenyon Martin and Eduardo Najera at Kobe) simply could not stop Johnson. Boston needed its best wing defender. Unfortunately Tony Allen just didn’t get there this year.

The C’s still have home court advantage and now is not the time to panic or jump off the bandwagon. The home crowd has to be ready to go tomorrow. In the meantime hats off to the Hawks and their fans. That was an impressive two game run. Let’s hope it ends there.

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the fans

in ATL were a little misconceiving with the loud music play. Also, they better fix that shot clock an stuff for game 6, looked bad on the organization having to use an air horn.

by Michael18 on Apr 29, 2008 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't become...

The next Dallas Mavericks. I’m a Spurs fan who lives in Dallas and I’ve watched the Mavs plan their championship parade in 06, only to then cancel it with their tail tucked between their legs. The very next year I also watch that same team get ousted in the first round, by the 8 seeded Warriors, after having the best record in the NBA. Be careful…

Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed.

by CMoney on Apr 29, 2008 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's the fear

And the Celtics have really put themselves in a bad position. Still they haven’t lost home court and I still see them pulling it out.

Green Bandwagon: Celtics '08 or bust. Are you on the bandwagon?

by Jim Weeks on Apr 29, 2008 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What Would Kobe Do?

He would begin jacking up every single possession. As a result, he would have a bunch of fourth quarter points. The team would probably lose as his teams do when he becomes selfish. He would then point out that his teammates need to step up because, clearly, he did his share and scored a bunch of points. He would then ask to trade Rondo for Kidd, demand a trade, and then treat Rondo like his own child after Rondo emerges as a great point guard.

by RealTangiblesGuy on Apr 29, 2008 11:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Haha

I tend to think Kobe would pull the win out. I’m not a huge fan but he’s dangerous on a good team.

Green Bandwagon: Celtics '08 or bust. Are you on the bandwagon?

by Jim Weeks on Apr 30, 2008 7:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kobe in the Clutch

The only true part of ESPN’s Kobe is Super Clutch legend is this: in end of game situations, he demands the ball. The Lakers give him the ball and he shoots it. Now, when you shoot every single shot in a crunch time situations, eventually you’re gonna make some. Everyone will, even Scot Pollard would. Those makes are what’s remembered. The misses are “misremembered” as Kobe tried everything he could, he even tried to hit a game winning shot but it was his teammate’s fault. His clutch ability is severely overrated (if you don’t believe me, check out the numbers at 82games.com, he’s far from one of the game’s best closers and is far from the best closer ever). The best closer currently in the game seems to be Ginobli.

by RealTangiblesGuy on Apr 30, 2008 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

82games.com

I did check out Kobe’s stats as suggested and I’m embarrassed to admit that I don’t entirely understand them. Although your points remind me of a Michael Jordan commercial where he talks about missing a lot of game winners. Big picture – a lot of people seem to ignore Ginobili. He’s fantastic. I do disagree with your Scot Pollard point. I’ve got nothing against him but he does move around like he has cement blocks on your feet. I guess the concern is that both KG and Kobe have the ability to make or miss at the end of the game. Kobe may want it more, which is half the battle. The unfortunate thing is that KG makes the right pass. It’s just that the NBA is not always team orientated. In closing I had thought that Kobe’s late game heroics had improved greatly over the last few years after being mediocre before that. I also vaguely recall reading that Carmelo Anthony is an assassin at the end of games. Thanks for stopping by.

Green Bandwagon: Celtics '08 or bust. Are you on the bandwagon?

by Jim Weeks on Apr 30, 2008 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kobe at End of Games

Here’s a link to +/- per 48 Minutes for all NBA players in the “clutch” where “clutch” is defined as 5 minutes remaining in a 5 point (or less) game: http://82games.com/CSORT4.HTM

By this per 48 Minute +/- metric, Kobe does not sniff the top 30. In fact, CLE has nearly its entire “crunch time five” at the top indicating either that they are all super clutch, or that LBJ is so clutch that he elevates his entire team’s +/- to the top of the list.

Here’s the same list sorted by FGA per 48 minutes in the “clutch”: http://82games.com/CSORT5.HTM

Kobe is third in field goal attempts behind Lebron James and Jamaal Tinsley (what??).

However, despite his high rate of demanding the ball and firing away in the clutch, Kobe is not great at converting: http://82games.com/CSORT6.HTM That is the ranking by FG% per 48 minutes in the clutch.

Kobe doesn’t sniff the top 50.

There is one thing he’s good at in the clutch, though: http://82games.com/CSORT9.HTM

That’s FTA per 48 minutes in the clutch. He’s 2nd in the NBA at drawing fouls in the clutch. However, if we head over to FT %, he once again is out of the top 20. I will agree here that the sample size is quite small. However, Nowitzki averages 4 less FTA per 48 minutes in the clutch than Kobe and converts his FT in the clutch at a higher rate. For all of Kobe’s supposed charity stripe heroics at the end of games, looking at the numbers shows that the perceptions created by ESPN/TV analysts really isn’t true. In fact, Notwitzki is better at converting clutch free throws than Kobe. And almost as good drawing such fouls. However, would you believe, before looking at this numbers, that they were the same?? That’s what I mean by the “fake legend of Kobe.”

So, sure, Kobe does have a lot of clutch points. But these points are more attributable to his “jacking up” shots than his being clutch. Of course, if I pointed stuff out like this last year, everyone would yell about how his teammates are so bad that he has to do this. That is, of course, no longer the case.

Here is another study by the same website on potential game winning shots between during the 03-06 seasons: http://www.82games.com/random12.htm. This is, I think, where you get the Melo thing from. Melo shot 17 potential game winners (PGW) and made 11 of them, leading everyone in both FG% for PGW and PGW’s made. Our own Ray Allen was second in PGW FG% and made 8 of 18. The Truth had 5 game winning assists, more than anyone else. The Super Duper Ultra Clutch Ultimate Closer Kobe? Fired away more PGW than anyone else (32) and made 7. For all his clutchtasticness, even Vinsanity hit 8 out of his 31 PGW.

KG, his choking self, hit 5 out 21 PGW (a higher FG% than Kobe) and never turned the ball over instead of firing away a PGW (which Kobe has done).

So, next time, when talking about a super clutch player, let’s talk about an actual super clutch player (like Ray Allen or Lebron James) and not one that everyone just believes is super clutch but isn’t (like Kobe Bryant). I know he closed out Denver pretty well in game 4, but that’s one game. These stats are aggregates over either this entire season or the 3 year period I mentioned. They are a bigger sample size and closer to the truth.

by RealTangiblesGuy on May 1, 2008 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs