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Why The Celtics Will Win

kg-lakers.jpg Everyone seems to be picking the Lakers to win this series, including the (no longer Boston) Sports Guy.   I can see the reasoning.  It actually makes sense from a certain point of view.   The Lakers have the best offensive player in the game, a Hall of Fame coach, and a prolific offense that is hitting on all cylinders right now.  They had an easier time getting to the Finals and just dispatched the reining champs in just 5 games.  On the flipside, the Celtics needed 7 games in each of the first two rounds and 6 to get past the Pistons.  In a world of "what have you done for me lately," the Lakers are the fashionable pick.  I don't blame anyone for picking the Lakers, I just think they're wrong.  Here's why: 

Say it with me: Defense wins Championships.  The Lakers have a pretty good defense and the Celtics have a pretty good offense, but that's not what will decide the series.  The Lakers have perhaps the best offense and the Celtics have hands-down the best defense.  The great thing about that is that defense wins.  Ask Wilt how things went with Russell.  Ask the Lakers how things went against the Pistons in 2004 (when they were also heavily favored).  Ask LeBron how frustrated he was for much of the series against Boston.  They have the MVP, we have the Defensive Player of the Year.  They have Tex Winter, we have Tom Thibodeau.  It is going to be a heck of a battle, but in the end, defense wins.

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Star-divide

Big 3 vs Big 3:  I can see why people try to match up teams position by position, but I think there's a bit of a flaw in that.  Kobe may be better than Ray, but Kobe isn't going to be single covered by Ray Allen.  There are fundamental flaws in the following comparisons, but I think they work as well as anything else.  Just rank the top 3 players on each team and tell me who's better.

Kobe vs. KG - Kobe won the MVP but I would still argue that KG is more valuable.  Kobe can score with anyone in the league and plays pretty good defense.  KG can defend anyone in the league and plays pretty good offense.  Call me a homer if you like, but to me this one is a wash.

Pau vs. Paul - Not even close.  Pau can score and pass in the triangle offense seemingly built for him.  Wonderful.  He's still pushed around on the boards and a non-factor on defense.  Paul Pierce creates his own shots, gets to the line, gets teammates involved, and oh by the way, has really dedicated himself to becoming a fantastic defensive player.

Odom vs. Ray - Sure, Ray Allen has had a streaky playoffs thus far, but Odom has been streaky his whole career.  Odom is just as likely to go for 8 or 7 points (as he did in games 1 & 3 vs. the Spurs) as he is to go for 26 (his post season high against the Jazz).  I will give you the fact that Odom also rebounds while Ray Allen doesn't have a lot of additional stat stuffing numbers.  But the way Ray spaces the court and knows how to attack a defense have to count for something.  At worst I'd call this a push because of the way the playoffs have gone thus far.  However, at the end of the day Ray Allen is headed to the Hall of Fame someday and when his shot is falling, there's no stopping him.  Can't say the same for Odom.

Ubuntu - From day one, the Celtics have all been on the same page.  Back in Italy the three stars set the tone and sacrificed self for the greater good.  Some teams will pretend to be unselfish for the cameras, but few can walk the walk throughout the regular season and playoffs like the Celtics do.  Ubuntu isn't just a catch phrase for this team.  It is the driving force that unites them and has fueled this run to the Finals.  When things didn't go well, they didn't panic. They trusted each other and went back to what has worked all year.

Compare that to where the Lakers started off the year, with Kobe demanding a trade and throwing his teammates under the bus.  Please tell me when Kobe has willingly sacrificed anything for the greater good of his team.  It hasn't happened.  He plays by his rules and demands that you fall in line.  I guess you could say that's one way to create team unity.  I wonder what will happen when things aren't going so well.

Urgency:  I understand that Kobe has an unyielding, driving, obsessive determination to be like Mike,... er, I mean to win Championships.  Still, I don't think you can say that he burns with emotion any more than Kevin Garnett does.  Now add in Paul Pierce and Ray Allen; two stars who know that their legacy hangs in the balance.  They all know how precious this opportunity is.  They know the window is short and you never know what next year will bring.  They want this now, and I think that will be that extra edge that pushes them over the top.

Conclusion:  Don't get me wrong.  The Lakers are an excellent team with a lot of fantastic pieces.  I fully expect to see a hard fought series where every game leaves both sides exhausted and bruised.  I also fully expect to see the Celtics emerge victorious.

lakers.jpg

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Thanks for the piece and good analysis Jeff. I would argue that the biggest difference between the teams’ top stars is that, as we know, Kobe will shoulder the responsibility to carry his team offensively when needed whereas KG usually does not. All things considered, I would have to give the edge to Bryant in the “star matchup”.

The 20 games in 40 nights was a grueling, stressful month and a half for the players, coaches and fans in Celtic Nation. Being taken to 7 games in round 1 & 2, and going through a knock-down-drag-out 6 game battle with the Pistons had to be very taxing on the team as well, both physically and emotionally. But let’s look at why it may have been a blessing in disguise. In short, the C’s were knocked down hard. They took more than one punch, were pushed to the brink, got up each time, brushed their pants off and got back in the ring. There is no measurement of just how much that has meant to this team. On the other hand, the Lakers have had a much easier time getting to the Finals. LA fans would argue that that is because they (LA) are a better team than their opposition has been. I would differ.

One of my favorite phrases is: “Adversity doesn’t build character, it reveals it”.

We’ve witnessed the character of this Celtics team as they’ve had their backs against the wall. We’ve seen ubuntu. The Lakers have not been hit hard throughout the playoffs and in my view are still a bit untested in this area.

Let’s put the pressure on and see what they’ve got.

In my opinion, this is our greatest advantage.

by DrD on Jun 2, 2008 6:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

good points DrD – you bring up a point that I neglected to mention in the article – the advantage of playing all those games: we’ve now got a whole team of playoff tested veterans (yes, even Rondo)

by Jeff Clark on Jun 2, 2008 6:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jeff, you point out quite clearly the biggest factor in our favor – L.A. has not had to defend, or been defended, the way this series will demand.

I would assert, also, that they haven’t faced the tests we have – Cleveland and Detroit both would eliminate a rapidly aging San Antonio team, IMHO.

Some others: Garnett is a TERRIBLE matchup for L.A. Who defends him? Gasol? The thought of that makes me giddy. Odom? Let’s hope so.

Derek Fisher’s a problem for them, matchup-wise as well. I think Fisher’s presence in the lineup will give House some opportunities to play, and I look forward to that.

As for Kobe, we’ve got a list of folks we can run at him: Pierce, Posey (who stoned Billups Friday night), Ray Allen.

I love this under-the-radar stuff. It reminds me of EVERY single 1980s game, when the Laker love was everywhere.

by CoachBo on Jun 2, 2008 6:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yes, the Lakers have no Lindsay Hunter to disrupt our point guards bringing the ball up – so maybe we’ll see more Eddie House

also, who doesn’t want to see Leon Powe go toe to toe with Turiaf?

by Jeff Clark on Jun 2, 2008 7:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great stuff Jeff, I pretty much agree with everything you said. One thing you did not mention and I think it would be key is bench vs. bench. I hear all the “experts” giving the edge to the Lakers. But I feel the Celtics bench is more battle tested and we do have two guys coming off the bench with championship rings. I think it’s safe to say the Lakers bench hasn’t face a bench like the Cs. People seem to forget the Celtics got pretty good production off their bench

by CT34 on Jun 2, 2008 7:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Honestly, defense in the Western Conference is nothing close to the defense in the East. Just watch the games. The C’s will have much more space and breathing room against the Lakers than they’ve had against the Hawks, Cavs and Pistons. Our offense will be resurrected in this series.

by DJ to Bird on Jun 2, 2008 7:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Our defense will paralyze their offense. And their defense won’t be able to paralyze ours and that will be biggest difference as to why we will win. Kobe can try to fly into the paint hoping for foul calls, but if lebron barely got any calls against us i doubt kobe will also.

This will be an amazing ending to a disastrous 2006-2007

by Triboy16 on Jun 2, 2008 8:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well said. Another factor that I believe in is the value to our guys of rest. You can come off rest flat or refreshed and our vets really needed it and will have extra kick in their legs. They won’t be flat.

by Wildblu1 on Jun 2, 2008 8:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the extra days off are just what the doctor ordered for this team – the 20 prior games took a lot out of us, but this rest will do a lot of good

by Jeff Clark on Jun 2, 2008 8:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

our tried and true and most consistent weapon is our team defense anchored by kg and it will remain so vs. the lakers. as bulpett noted in c’s live, our offense has been real spotty and oft offtrack in the playoffs. if kg can stay low and we can get him the ball, we will be competetive.move the ball and our hopes are on rondo who can do this with support from the big 3.

by nazzbo on Jun 2, 2008 8:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

KG keeps in in the game…if the time comes when someone has to take the offensive, Paul land Ray are not shy about taking (and making) the last shot under pressure (nor are our the members of our great bench)! Therefore, it is not KG vs Kobe, it is Kobe v the Celtics….and five against one is definitely in our favor!

I can’t wait…should be a bloody battle…and I have a feeling the fans are also going to be worn out by the end of it…worn out but victorious! Go Celts.

by thirstyboots18 on Jun 2, 2008 8:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’ve been trying so hard to enjoy this. But the national media is really dampering my spirits.

What concerns me most is the 2-3-2 format. I think this heavily favors the lakers. In order to win I think we need to return to Boston with a 3-2 lead. Unless we win games 1 and 2, I’m not sure if we can do that. In my opinion the team with home court advantage should always have game 5 on their home court. Look how big at has been in all of our series.

by overthebackboardoooh on Jun 2, 2008 9:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Geez, now everyone is all giddy.. I couple of weeks ago we were ripping into this team…

I for one though and very happy and can’t wait for the series to begin. I go back to the late 60’s as a 10 year old watching these games and something many of you haven’t experienced, “Listening to Johnny Most on a transitter radio in bed, with my mom yelling at me to shut it off LOL” WOW how times have changed

I kinda put this team in the same category as what the New York Giants did to win the Super Bowl. Going through everyone and everything and defining who they were.

This basketball realized what it had to do to win, and how much more intensity and level of play is much greater than the regular season.

Great to see Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett grow and develop even though they have been in the league for so long…..

It was worth the wait !!!!

by Ancient Red on Jun 2, 2008 9:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’ve made it my life goal to get you talking about how awful PJ Brown is and how awesome Powe is.

I’m one of the biggest proponents for calling the NBA a “player’s league”, but how can you write this and ignore Phil vs. Doc? Phil handles his bench masterfully. He gives them enough reign if they’re screwing up, not getting all reactionary and yanking around minutes and playing some truly absurd lineups. He puts his guys in a position to succeed. Meanwhile, we have to watch Leon Powe, who busted his ass all season to make himself one of the most productive bench bigs in the league (not an exaggeration), rot on the end of the bench while PJ gives us zero offense and blows rotation after rotation and has to commit fouls to make up for his lack of speed.

That’s the biggest mismatch, and it’s a damn crucial one.

by cmoney on Jun 2, 2008 12:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m having a hard time believing everyone is favoring the Lake Show.

After Kobe, the drop off in talent is extreme. No one after Kobe is capable of taking over a game. Gasol? Odom? Fisher? Radman? All of those guys have had their moments, but not one of those guys has the ability to play both ends consistantly.

C’s have better D and a deep bench.

by LuckyNumber07 on Jun 2, 2008 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jeff,cant agree with you more… ive been saying this to anyone who can listen since this matchup became apparent…DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS….Celtics had the BEST defense in basketball…the Lakers ranked 18th in PPG allowed……how can anyone pick them over the Celtics?? When one of these teams absolutely has to clamp down on D and get a stop, which team is more likely to get it done?….THE BOSTON CELTICS, HANDS DOWN

by NUMBA 17 on Jun 2, 2008 3:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

C’s have better D and a deep bench.

the Lakers have, without a doubt, the best bench in the league. We HAD a great bench, but Doc kind of shortened it for inferior talent and thus ruined it.

As for the Lakers D, while not as good as the Celtics, it is very, very good. Get past of PPG, people, Lakers play a fast pace (6th in the league). They have the 5th best D in terms of points/100 possessions. One thing that is often overlooked is the relationship between offense and defense (something stat heads haven’t quite pieced together yet, but the evidence is there). They aren’t totally separate entities.. if you’re making buckets, you’ve got a better opportunity to set your D.

The Lakers offense, while only 3rd in the league during the regular season, has been the best in the league since Pau joined. This helps their defense tremendously. Conversely, our offense has gone through some serious ruts during the playoffs, and our defense suffered as a result.

We NEED solid offensive production to win this game.. we often overlook offense and get too obsessed with D, which we know we’re going to bring every single night. But then when a lineup of Perk, PJ, Posey, Pierce, and Rondo squander a lead, we blame defense, when really it’s a weak offensive unit. PJ is a zero and Posey and Perk can’t create. If Rondo’s having one of those bad nights, that squad has real issues scoring. And when we can’t score, Perk and PJ are somewhat marginalized because they won’t always get set (PJ more so, since he’s old and sucks anyway).

by cmoney on Jun 2, 2008 3:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Is Pau’s rebounding really that poor? I couldn’t bring myself to watch the Lakers when they were rolling because I hate them too much but he averaged 9.6 rebounds against the Spurs.

If we can get the first two games I think the crappy 2-3-2 format actually favors us. We lost three games in a row only once this whole season and that was after the all-star break when they were trying to incorporate Garnett back into the game after he was out for 9 games.

by RMO on Jun 2, 2008 9:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

LAKERS NO DEFENSE?? omg…

man, this is all hate. all biased but.. BUT! (i aint even surprised)

I respect your opinion, and how you see this and everythin.. but I’d just like to say that you made a very bad analogy.

You picked like Pau vs Paul? Gasol does get his teammate involved, uhuh. and he’s the part of the defense where you get your shot altered or blocked and you sayin somethin that pierce is a fantastic defender, whut??

I mean, how can you compare the two when theyre not even in the same position. How do you play those things up?

In the end, Lamars arms gon be on Ray’s face, and he’ll choke.

by nottt on Jun 3, 2008 2:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Day Celtics. I am Warren Wee Lim from ForumBlueandGold (a Laker blog) and I shall be joining you for the rest of this dream series.

I am not here to bring homerism, instead, only a small voice “from the other side.” Behold, I send you as sheep amongst the wolves.

To start with, let me congratulate you for being in the Finals. Its as much a dream come true for us as it is for you – except that yours probably started the moment you got KG, and ours the moment we acquired Pau. This is definitely a clash of the titans of basketball – the 2 most highly decorated franchises in history. Regardless of what happens, it shall be a series to remember.

Being a little more specific, here are a few notes I’d like to stress out:

1. Observe the 1st quarter of Game 1. Both teams will be giddy as ever. But he who controls the tempo will come out victorious. [/b]

 - The Celtics would use the noise of the garden to frustrate the Lakers everytime they make a defensive play. A single layup by Rondo or a three by Jesus Shuttleworth, or a charge taken by Perk, Boston Garden will explode. Offensively, the Celtics become more efficient when coming off a defensive play.

 - LA will try to run as much as possible. Transition is where even the best defense in the world will scramble. If the Lakers create opportunities to run the break, the Celtics will be in trouble. Expect to see transition threes for Fish as well.

. Matchups will be key.[/b]

 - As you like to say it, KG has an advantage over Odom. He has a more refined post move and his defense is contagious. Perk is also a big body over Pau Gasol. Depending on how PP plays, Perk will go with him offensively. The question is, how big a difference is KG over Odom? Could you really consider Perk having an advantage over Pau?

 - Paul Pierce is and will be Boston’s best player. He is LA’s toughest matchup by far but you do not know what Phil has under his sleeve. Vlade will guard him and he will probably eat him alive. So will Luke Walton. Ariza might be the best way to go, but is he smart enough to match PP’s intensity?

 - LA has Kobe. Say it all you like until you convince yourself, Ray Allen is not Kobe Bryant. Among shooters, Ray may be the NBA’s best pure shooter. Other than that, Kobe is a wash to win here. Fish over Rondo wins in poise, experience and overall talent. Rajon is simply younger and quicker but that’s about it.

 - To say that Boston has the better bench is quite hilarious. You have the experience of Sam Cassell and PJ Brown, we have the speed and intensity of Farmar and Turiaf. You have Eddie House for instant offense, we have Sasha. You have Leon Powe and Big Baby, we have Luke and Ariza and even DJ Mbenga. LA has the better bench.

. Chess Match

 - Phil Jackson is a basketball genius hiding behind his beard and his throne. I say to be calling him a very good coach is underrating his ways and skills. To be earning 9 rings is worthy of respect. Even when he was leading the MJ-Scottie Bulls and the Kobe-Shaq Lakers, Phil has always managed to work around the stars. And now, with this group of kids running around the court, Phil has put to rest the notion that he can only succeed with “ready-to-wear” superstar teams. How he transformed Sasha, Farmar and even Lamar is the biggest wonder of all.

 - Of course, you could as well have put in Mike Brown in here. I respect Doc Rivers as a player and as a coach, but Boston’s success this year is not because of him. To rub him off completely of the glory would be unfair, but there’s a reason why he is not even top 3 in COY rankings.

Folks, I have placed my 2 cents on “your” cookie jar. I had to be fair and honest in the assessments and I do not intend to “stir your pot” here. Just plain commenting. Peace.

by warrenweelim on Jun 3, 2008 8:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

here my question how is LA going to rebound the ball this can be hugeeee for boston also if LA goes down 2-0 how will a young team react

by eddietours on Jun 3, 2008 1:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

last laker series was DUNCAN AND OBERTO NOW IS PERKINS AND KG

by eddietours on Jun 3, 2008 1:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Man!!! Jack Nickelson belongs in L.A. 70 years old and he still wears those stupid glasses everywhere. I was at his moon game in Boston years ago. Wyc should disallow him to enter the Garden.

The game. At the end of the day the team who wants it more will win. Has anyone looked at Garnett’s and Pierce’s eyes lately? The Lakers have no chance. Zero! The C’s defense is like none they have ever seen? We have the most intense and best defensive player in KG, and after what Bryant did to that girl, his lies, the negative talk against his teammates and team, deserves nothing. Phil Jackson is just the most repulsive person in America, that’s all after Jack, i.e. And that is not a Celtics’ fan opinion only, but any fan’s opinion.

by gustusias on Jun 3, 2008 1:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Picking on Jack Nicholson? Come on really that is what you are going to bring. I guess it beats “sodomy” comments.

Numba17, Cmoney already beat me to the punch, but PPG? That means nothing. It is a function of pace of game. Dig a little deeper, try 82games.com.

Champzilla :-( not cool

Cman, I wanted to answer your questions from a while back. Sorry I am a little behind. The foul on Brent Barry was obviously a foul, everyone in LA understands this. We do not agree (for the most part) with the “he should have jumped into Fisher” stuff. Definitely should have been called. The issue we have is this. There were 3 horrible calls prior to that which went against us. Had those been called properly there would never have been a Barry/Fisher issue. I think that is more of the Laker fan position.

The Sasha shot? I don’t think he had a clue what he was doing. I really don’t think it was anything but youth and stupidity. It didn’t help that it covered the spread (and moved $100 million around Vegas according to estimates). You can use it as locker room material, but in reality I don’t think there was ill intent. You would just have to know Sasha. (Not personally I mean)

Reed, I think your analysis was right on, nice job.

by pslakerfan on Jun 3, 2008 3:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

take those short shorts and stick em where the sun don’t shine. celts are taking down down the the FAKERS!

by Red2 on Jun 3, 2008 8:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

last Lebron James is now Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.

by nottt on Jun 3, 2008 9:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That’s classy of you. Instead of talking hoops, you tell me that Jack Nicholson has ugly glasses and all. You criticize the short shorts when you yourselves dishonored the agreement of wearing them? Jeff, is this the best this blog can do?

I honestly expected more from Boston fans. I thought the deep roots of the glory days in the past inculcated culture into your minds. Way to represent Boston guys. And I thought Jazz fans were classless. Sheesh.

by warrenweelim on Jun 3, 2008 10:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

scoreboard! :D

by Jeff Clark on Jun 23, 2008 8:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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