'98 Draft, PP vs. Dirk: 'D' the Difference-Maker?
A Daily Babble Production
Back in March, my Dallas Morning News counterpart Tim MacMahon and I engaged in a spirited debate about the relative merits of star power forwards Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki. Searching through the lively comments section of that piece recently, I came across the following line from one of the Mavs fans who had come aboard for the day to chat with us:
"And one last thing, [one CB member] stated he would take Pierce over Dirk...come on now, let's be real. [No one], and I mean [NO ONE], actually believes that..that's just a homer statement. And anybody who says [otherwise] is just, well, a homer."
Ironically enough, three months later, with our own beloved captain (aaaaaand Truth) Paul Pierce now the proud owner of not only a championship but a Finals MVP trophy, Tim has chosen to open just that discussion: Which of the two forwards is the best player of the 1998 draft class? Not much homerism to be found here.
The crux of Tim's analysis:
If you wanted to make a case for Pierce, you could point out that his best teammate until this season was Antoine Walker. (And Walker's nothing special, as Dirk found out firsthand.) The trades for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen made the Celtics title contenders, but Pierce put the team on his back when it mattered.
The turning point of the Finals came when Pierce shut down Kobe during the Celtics' record-setting comeback in Game 4. Dirk has developed into a decent defender, but it's doubtful that he'll ever harass an MVP into a rough series.The case for Dirk? That's tough to make right now, with the glare of Pierce's new hardware in my eyes.
In the interest of full disclosure and fairness to Tim's subjects in Dallas, Nowitzki has long been the more efficient scorer of the two. Pierce is a 44 percent shooter whose career high is 47.1 percent from the field. That latter figure happens to be Dirk's career shooting percentage, and the lanky forward has shot 48, 50.2 and 47.9 percent over the last three seasons. He has the clear advantages in three-point and free-throw shooting accuracy (though Pierce has gotten to the line with greater regularity over the course of their careers). So score a point for Dirk for efficiency of scoring.
But with that being said, I can't say I disagree with Tim's commentary. Tim also covers the comparability of the players' career and playoff statistics in his post, and it's definitely worth a look. As such, in the name of not re-hashing what's already been thoroughly covered, we primarily focus today on one of the true difference-makers between the two studs in question.
All of Steve's daily posts can be found in the CelticsBlog: NBA blog. Check him out!For what it's worth, this isn't a discussion that simply comes down to who has the championship and who doesn't. There have been plenty of greats to play in this league who didn't win titles, and no matter who the more impressive player is here, it's worth noting at the outset that both Nowitzki and Pierce are outstanding players. There's still time for Dirk to win his title, too.
Again, Tim covered crunching the standard numbers between these two players. The short-short story here (see Tim's piece for the particulars): Though Dirk is the more efficient scorer, Pierce has done a better job of getting in the lane and earning trips to the charity stripe -- and for their careers, Pierce leads in scoring average by less than a point per game. As different size players at different positions, it's to be expected that Nowitzki is the better rebounder and Pierce has the higher assist numbers. Both rank highly at their respective positions in each category.
All that in mind, it's for one primary reason outside the numbers that Pierce gets the nod here as the player more conducive to winning the ultimate prize for his team: Defense.
Last time around with this sort of discussion, there was some hot contesting of the assessment of Dirk as a soft defensive player. While that's long been his reputation, he has done some work to begin shedding that label. Even so, he isn't a lock-down guy or defensive difference-maker of any sort, and thus his track record on that end of the floor is still most kindly described as nondescript.
On the other hand, as Tim begins to touch on in his post, Pierce's effort and production at that end of the floor has truly been a revelation. This guy was for at least a portion of his career a poor-to-mediocre defender at best (this hit a low point in 2004-05 and 2005-06 when Pierce seemed to be losing his man, failing to rotate fluidly enough in help, and committing bad fouls with a special sort of regularity). Yet he put in the work and not only turned himself into a very good team defender throughout this season, but he truly became a lock-down stopper on the biggest stages imaginable. Pierce moves his feet defensively better than he ever has, isn't as susceptible to the up-fake as he once was and seems to be creating loose balls by getting his hands in the passing lanes at every turn.
He frustrated LeBron James through most of seven games against Cleveland, held Tayshaun Prince to an utterly putrid series (32.4 percent shooting from the field) and used his physicality to help turn Kobe Bryant into a 40.5 percent shooter in the Finals. In particular, it came out after the miracle comeback in Game 4 that Pierce had begged Doc Rivers to let him guard Kobe in the second half because he believed he could frustrate the LA star. The change was made, and the rest is history. That exchange with Doc is the earmark of someone who truly wants to win.
Certainly, some of the improvement in Pierce's defense has due to the arrival of Tom Thibodeau and Kevin Garnett on the scene. But ultimately, it was Pierce who committed to becoming a better defender, and it was Pierce who actualized his ability on that end of the floor. It was Pierce who supplemented his offensive load with becoming a defensive stalwart when it mattered most.
Like everyone else who has ever played for a champion, part of the success Paul Pierce's team enjoyed had to do with the excellent play of his teammates (that's all we're saying about this issue for now folks, but feel free to steer it this way in the comments or to check out the corresponding section of Tim's piece, in which teammates are all the rage). But it was Paul Pierce whose all-around game made him a late-game killer of a closer, the Finals MVP and a huge part of the heart and soul of a championship team. Dirk Nowitzki doesn't have that yet, and speaking of heart and soul, the jury still appears to be out on that for him.
Dirk Nowitzki is a fantastic basketball player. But not only can Paul Pierce score in volume the way Dirk Nowitzki can and gain comparable positional ranks in rebounding and assist creation, he has shown the rarely found ability to adapt in order to win. He turned himself into far more of an unselfish play-making facilitator on offense this season, and he has spent the last couple of years killing himself defensively to do everything in his power to give his team a chance to win. There is a complete package that comes wth Paul Pierce these days, both on and off the court. Dirk Nowitzki is still working on that. It wasn't just Paul Pierce's team that proved itself a winner this season, but with the toughness and true desire he showed throughout, it was Pierce too who demonstrated that he is no doubt a winner in his own right.
A winner of a championship. A winner of an NBA Finals MVP. And at this point, the winner of the battle for 1998 draft supremacy.
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if dirk was available and so was paul, the c’s would have taken dirk in a heartbeat. it’s the skills combined with the 7 feet of height. i would rather compare dirk to kg-same position and kg wins everything. i don’t think the c’s would have won this year if we had dirk vs. having kg.tho, tom t would have helped dirk’s defensive game.
by nazzbo on Jun 20, 2008 5:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s hard to say. If Paul was surrounded with Dirk’s teammates his entire career, there’s a chance he’d have an MVP award on his mantel.
On the other hand, if Dirk had been on a team committed to defense, and had Tom Thibodeau as one of his coaches, he may have turned out differently. Pierce went into Pitino’s system, and for all his faults, the man preached defensive intensity. Same thing with Jim O’Brien. When Pete Carroll, and then Doc, came in, that defensive intensity seemed to wane, until it was reenergized with the acquisition of KG and the hiring of TT. I’d argue that Pierce’s defensive ability isn’t a matter of talent, but of motivation. His coaches got the best out of him.
Dirk came into the league and was coached by Don Nelson, who is, to put it lightly, and offensive-minded coach. Repeatedly, his Dallas team was ranked in the bottom 20% of defensive teams in the league. When the Mavericks transitioned to Avery Johnson, the team defense picked up, and so did Dirk’s individual game. He isn’t a lock-down defender, but he’s been decent (he held opposing power forwards to a 15.0 PER this season, for instance, and a 13.1 PER the year before). I’ve got to think that if a coach like TT came in, Dirk’s defensive game would improve even further.
I honestly think Dirk and PP are fairly equal, and Dirk is getting an unfair share of blame for not being able to get his team over the hump. Ever since Nash left, those teams have been good-but-not-great, and yet Dirk led them to the Finals, as well as a 67 win season. If you traded the two players this year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dirk hoisting the Finals MVP award, while Paul went out in the first round.
by Roy_Hobbs on Jun 20, 2008 6:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pierce is an explosive scorer with more ability as a distributor, but due to the mismatches that his size creates I would think that Dirk would have the advantage on offense. Dirk is the more consistent and efficient scorer, and when he is on he is almost unstoppable.
Pierce showed himself to be a better defender this season, though, and his post-season really opened some eyes on that front. Plus, Pierce has a toughness in him that so far Dirk has yet to show.
Ultimately, in the big scheme of things, I think that Dirk has more ability to be the centerpiece on a contender than Pierce does. Dirk surrounded by (very good) secondary players made it to the NBA Finals and had a legit chance to win. Pierce showed that he could contribute strongly to an actual title this year, which is a big notch in his belt, but I can’t convince myself that he could take a team with the equivalent of Dallas’ supporting cast to the title. Or even to the Finals. While Pierce might be a better finishing piece, Dirk is a better foundation piece.
So I’d take Dirk in this comp, but the fact that Pierce has now made it a conversation-worthy topic is a testament to him and how much championships can change perceptions.
by drza44 on Jun 20, 2008 8:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you were building a team and everyone was available and everything was equal, yes, you might take Nowitzki over Pierce. But since they don’t play the same position, you’d immediately be looking for someone who could put the ball on the floor and get to the line like Pierce.
Notwitzki actually should be compared with Garnett (I’ll take Garnett, thank you). Pierce should be compared with Kobe, LeBron, and Wade.
by no kidding on Jun 20, 2008 8:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The question here is not who would you have taken, everyone knows the C’s coveted Dirk and would have taken him, but how things have turned out since then. PP has to get the nod now simply by virtue of the Championship and Finals MVP hardware if otherwise things are fairly equal. This is not a knock on Dirk, but winning the ultimate prize means so much in evaluating a players’ worth. And while PP certainly was helped by the motivation of his coaches, it is incorrect to say it is not a matter of talent in terms of him defending. You can be motivated all you want, if you don’t have the physical skills to play good D, it is not going to make you an elite defender but merely not an embarrassment.
Dirk’s ability to defend(or not) can’t be rated by stats, this isn’t baseball, it is about what your eyes tell you. He could be drilled by Tom T all day every day, and that is not going to change his limited foot speed and lack of interior toughness for a guy 7 ft. tall. He will NEVER be a great defender, and not because of who is coaching him, it is simply not in his skill set, which is vast. We all know LB was a great “team defender” but not so great in one on one matchups, this was not because of the wrong coach or not being motivated, he just did not possess the physical tools to do it.
by KJ33 on Jun 20, 2008 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been going back and forth on this but the answer is definitely Pierce.
His scoring ability is harder to limit which makes him more dangerous in adversity. His playmaking is superior which means he can help his teammates more when they’re struggling. His defense is better. Pierce has a cold-blooded killer attitude in big games, close games and hard/tough games.
Pierce gets the nod
by Who on Jun 20, 2008 6:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was reading through some of the Mavs article comments and the opposing players argument is fair enough. Thin of this way …. what would Dirk to Radmanovic?
During the regular season Dirk was pumping in 30/10 against the Lakers and he had Odom on him. Odom did a really good job on Dirk too.
Then there’s the other side ….. what if Pierce had Posey and a Haslem type small forward on him? Pierce would still be incredible and still put up Finals MVP performances. That’s the difference between the two players.
by Who on Jun 20, 2008 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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