Curiosity Abounds About LO-for-RJ
by Steve Weinman on Jun 21, 2008 12:32 AM EDT
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As was mentioned in this space earlier this week, the turn from confidence to angst in Los Angeles in the span of half a month has been truly remarkable.
Two weeks ago, the Lakers were primed to take care of the Celtics with ease, but even if they somehow didn't, this team as currently constructed was ready to rule the league for several years to come. Now, less than a week after the conclusion of the Finals, the blame game is in full swing in La La Land, and the loser thus far appears to be Lamar Odom.
The 28-year-old forward is headed into the final year of his contract and though he wasn't statistically terrible in the Finals, he has continued to frustrate those in LA with his trademark inconsistency. That being said, he's also coming off the best season of his career.
So label me intrigued -- particularly from the Lakers' perspective -- by The Star-Ledger's Dave D'Alessandro's suggestion that the Nets and Lakers will talk seriously this summer about a swap involving Odom and Richard Jefferson.
All of Steve's daily posts can be found in the CelticsBlog: NBA blog. Check him out!
It's an interesting dilemma -- to the point that I'm unsure how to lean on this one.
The case for dumping Odom is simple enough. As immensely talented as he is, he has a widely held reputation of disappearing in big games and crunch time. Beyond that, Odom is obscenely inconsistent. In the last two series of the year, he put up shooting performances of 8-for-11, 7-for-10 and 8-for-11 but also had showings of 3-for-12, 2-for-9, 2-for-11 and 2-for-8 -- a good microcosm for the inconsistency that often extends to parts of his game beyond just his scoring efficacy.
With Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum penciled in for the four-five spots, Odom would be expected to play out of position at the three. While this certainly has the potential to work out as a killer giant front-court for the Lakers, there's no guarantee that Odom will be comfortable playing out of position. Further, one of the biggest weaknesses exposed on this team in the Finals was the small forward spot. The likes of Vladimir Radmanovic and Luke Walton don't have the skills to match up with most of the big-time swingmen in this league. Most contenders have at least two capable scorers at the swing spots, and Kobe Bryant can only guard one of them at a time. Bringing in a better defensive three with the ability to match up with many of the league's bigger swing scorers would be huge for this team. With his length and decent quickness for a big man, Odom might be able to fill this role, but it's no guarantee. Certainly, having a natural three would be a more comforting thought for Lakers fans.
Between Odom's inconsistency, his expiring contract and the team's expected front-court set-up for next year, a deal would seem to make a lot of sense, particularly one for Jefferson. Though RJ has three years left on his contract (thus requiring other pieces along with Odom in order to make a deal work), he turns 28 today and is right in the midst of the prime of his career. Jefferson is a lengthy 6-foot-7 forward who plays hard at both ends of the floor and would at least be a serviceable defender at the three and certainly an upgrade over the status quo. He is also developing into a big-time scoring threat, having averaged more than 22 points per game last season. Jefferson could be a very nice complement for a front-court already featuring Gasol and Bynum.
But "featuring Gasol and Bynum" is where some of the doubt here should come in as well. Bynum hasn't played since January 13 and has already suffered numerous setbacks in coming back from injury. Further, he is a youngster who showed good promise in 2006-07 but has really played exactly one half-season of very good basketball in this league, which came this year before he got hurt. There are no guarantees of either when Bynum will return to the court or how well he will regain the effectiveness that he had found this past season.
The Lakers are rightfully concerned enough to hold off on offering Bynum a contract extension until they see how he looks in training camp, and this only makes Odom's presence all the more valuable. With the possbility that Bynum won't be as helpful as many are projecting him to be for next season, having a bona fide starting power forward in Odom on hand would be an important safety net for the Lakers. He could slide right back into the four spot (and move Gasol back to the pivot) if Bynum were for some reason incapacitated, and having Odom start at the three with a healthy Bynum would give the Lakers a scary-big front-court. While there is plenty of risk to this approach, there is also the possibility that Odom will have just enough quickness to create nightmares for opposing scorers and to continue to utilize his excellent passing skills to make him dangerous as a point forward of sorts offensively. Further, if Odom were to be traded, the Lakers would be in big trouble in the front-court in the event of future health issues for Bynum. Ronny Turiaf simply isn't a starter in this league at this point in his career.
The other question is how good a fit RJ would be in the Laker line-up. Though he's certainly a more capable defender and scorer than the Lakers currently at the three, it's worth noting that Jefferson has also become a high-volume shooter. He scored 22.6 points per game but took 16.2 shots per outing in order to do it (46.6 percent shooting), and it isn't likely that there will be room for him to put the rock up with such regularity alongside Kobe Bryant. In fairness to Jefferson, he played on a bad New Jersey team on which he had to shoot the ball a lot last season, and earlier in his career, he was far more content to shoot the ball in the range of 12 to 13 times a game, and he did it with far greater efficiency. In 2003 and 2004, RJ shot 50.1 and 49.8 percent respectively. Perhaps he could get back to those numbers by getting good looks from playing alongside Kobe Bryant, but it bears remembering that Kobe hasn't spent much time playing next to other big scorers at the swing spots in his career. It is also worth noting that Jefferson isn't a standout on the glass (his rebounding has dropped precipitously over the last two seasons, and he ranked just 28th among small forwards with 4.2 per game last year) or as a passer.
There you have it; the cases are made on both sides. Inconsistency, contract status and defensive questions at the three suggest moving Odom for a player like Richard Jefferson. Andrew Bynum's health concerns, the possibility of a monster front-court and the questions about just how much RJ would bring to the table in LA suggest holding off.
Gut feeling in the first week of the off-season is that Odom won't finish the summer as a Laker. But whether that would be the right decision remains quite open to debate.
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jesus i called this trade on the espn laker board over the weekend as something to consider. i think thats a good deal for them. worst move they made was losing caron butler. rj brings them back a similar player with similar toughness. i think rj’s a punk so he would fit in perfectly in la.
by bucknersrevenge on Jun 21, 2008 2:09 AM EDT reply actions
bucknersrevenge,
Thanks for the comment — any elaboration on what makes RJ deserving of the punk label? I believe there has been some question about an incident on the road earlier this season, but the details hadn’t been confirmed there last I heard, and aside from that, it seemed he was regarded as a fairly stand-up guy. Any empirical evidence to the contrary?
-sw
I dont like this deal for the Lakers. Odom is a match up nightmare at SF. LA fans are crazy, this guy is one of a kind and you will be taking back less talent in any deal for him. Also someone should remind LA fans that Odom struggled against the top defense in the league, Jefferson would have also disappeared in that series. The only good deal would be Odom and Farmer for Artest and Brad Miller.
by Cooldude5t5 on Jun 21, 2008 2:49 AM EDT reply actions
LOL, don’t we all wish that Phil Jackson would have to deal with Artest ;D
by LonelyTXCelt on Jun 21, 2008 3:07 AM EDT reply actions
There’s a whole bunch of interesting Odom trade ideas right now. This is a good one.
(1) I wouldn’t consider Odom a safety net for Bynum. Then again I don’t think Bynum needs a safety net either, he’s a kid who’s only had one injury and has huge room for developing his game in several different ways. Why Odom not a safety net? The Lakers aren’t going to win with a Odom-Gasol interior. So why care about that? Sign Diop and add a very good small forward, does that team win? It has a good shot. That’s with Bynum never coming back. Best option is trading Odom. Especially since you’ll get nothing for him in 12 months time. Cash in now.
(2) Don’t worry about Kobe. He’s one of the best passers in the league and one of the smartest players in the league. Just put talent on the court and he’ll make it work. Kobe is the reason why Gasol’s transition was easy. He knows how to use his teammates and how to give them the space to perform (Bron still learning here, was awful prior to this season in this regard).
Richard Jefferson[/u]
Jefferson makes good sense without making great sense.
The drawback is his perimeter jump shot. It’s acceptable and competent but the Lakers need very good. They have two 7 foot interior scorers and a player who draws an automatic double team on the perimeter … it’s important that the next two players (SF and PG) can hit perimeter jump shots.
The reasons why he makes good sense:
(1) Good defender who’s capable of being a great defender. Playing on a top team will allow him to spend more energy on defense and there’s a good chance he regains his previous higher levels of D if that were to happen. Disciplined man-to-man defender too which LA badly needs on the perimeter. Not a ball hawk looking to create turnovers, he’s happy to force bad shots. Lakers need that type of a defender.
(2) RJ is one of the best cutters in the league. His movement off the ball is excellent. Perfect for the Triangle.
(3) He’s a solid passer. Doesn’t get assists but that’s because he doesn’t create for others, however, he’s an accurate and quick passer who makes good decisions. So he’ll help ball movement.
(4) Fairly reliable 20ppg scorer or thereabouts. That gives LA a 27ppg option, a 20ppg, and two 15-17ppg options which is very nice. His scoring is fairly consistent too. He can create his own shot but not at an All-Star level which means Kobe is still the only top drawer shot creator which means their offense will still be troubled by a top defense unless one of the three takes a large step forward from where they are now.
(5) Good experience. Good competitor. Tough player who can succeed in physical play. He has solid size and strength at small forward too which means he can match up well enough with Eastern Contenders LeBron/Pierce/Lewis/Hedo.
(6) Great finisher in the open court. Lakers break looked like a whole different animal when Trevor Ariza was healthy. Jefferson could make a huge difference with their transition offense.
Cap space. That’s the only thing I’d be thinking about if I were Jersey. I wanted them to trade Kidd Carter together to cut their salaries. They need to cut salary badly. They have no present and no future. Time to start again and add top talent. Odom isn’t top talent, RJ isn’t top talent, Vince isn’t top talent, Harris isn’t top talent. Time to rebuild.
In terms of talent and bball performances. Different looking team, same end result. Lateral move. You are not going to get anything more than a lateral move for RJ. Improvement will have to come from elsewhere.
Jersey get to slash their salary, get rid of RJ and keep a similarly talented team. That’s a win in my book.
I say do it.
It’ll give Ray a chance to get back at Odom. No wait, we’re above that. Well, it’ll give us Celtics fans more chances to boo Lamar. Maybe get a “LAMAR SUX” chant going. I’m all for it!
by Amager Celtic Fan on Jun 21, 2008 6:20 AM EDT reply actions
RJ is a very smarmy, unlikable player from where I sit – I can only think of one specific example (when he laughed at Alonzo’s disease) but it seems like whenever I hear him comment on something, it is just a punk-type comment
maybe it is just my perception, but I don’t like the guy – he’s fun to root against in NJ and he’d be fun to root against in LA – the only problem is that he is pretty good
I seem to rememer it was Kenyon Martin who supposedly laughed at Alonzo Mourning’s medical condition. (But maybe Jefferson was giggling along too.) As for Kenyon Martin, now there’s a guy that’s easy to root against. New Jersey seems to get more than fair share of those guys, so I suppose Odom would fit right in.
LA doesn’t need another scorer they have more than enough of those already. What they need is a intimidating defensive minded player that can change the whole attitude of the team. Sorry Mitch you should have got KG when you had the chance!!! ;D
by Las Vegas Asian on Jun 21, 2008 3:49 PM EDT reply actions
LA doesn’t need another scorer they have more than enough of those already
They need a second player who can create his own shot. Their offense got in a lot of trouble without that against the Celtics.
Gasol can be that man but he’s too passive to be relied on. Bynum can’t create his own shot at this point with will in time. Odom clearly is too inconsistent and unwilling to ever be that guy plus he doesn’t fit in the Triangle and never has.
Instead everything comes from Kobe Bryant, everybody relies on Kobe to get them their shot.
They need a second guy who can create his shot. It would be nice if that player could create a shot for his teammate too. Back in the three-peat days Shaq and Kobe could do both as could Pippen and Jordan in Chicago. They need that second player and they’ll likely have to look outside their team at least in the short term (Bynum long term option).
Is it definate that Jersey’s looking to rebuild around Vince Carter instead of RJ? VC’s numbers match almost perfectly with Odom’s. VC might be a marginally better player right now – better rebounding, better assists – but he’s also a few years older and makes a little bit more each year (both have three years remaining, VC’s got a team option for a year after that).
Doesn’t a VC-for-LO deal – or VC-for-LO pick deal make a lot of sense for both sides?
by the_Bird on Jun 21, 2008 10:52 PM EDT reply actions
Is it definate that Jersey’s looking to rebuild around Vince Carter instead of RJ?
I think the situation is that they can’t trade Vince Carter for anything of value. Thorn still appears to believe he can turn the team around by making trades instead of rebuilding like they have needed to do for going on three years now. Also, Thorn seems to have an odd love affair with Vince’s ability.
They should trade both and start over.
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